#MarketUpdate - Nifty . . . On a Mark . . . Get Set Go ?

Hi All,

Hope you all are doing fine.

Nifty after the dream run for almost few months now, has topped near 11800 and corrected fairly to near 11k levels today.

There are some bullish observations which suggest that the correction might be over

1. Nifty completed around 23.6% retracement of the recent rally from 8850 to 11800, if not sustained here the next critical support can be near 10650 (38.2% retracement) - 11880 (next swing low of August)

2. Nifty, though has broken the lows of 14th August, still managed to close above it for yesterday and today too.

3. Most importantly on hourly charts today, Nifty has given a Bullish separating Lines pattern, which is a very reversal signal, the same kind of pattern was seen before on 9th Sept, after which Nifty rallied from the lows of 11200 to 11600

4. Also, on hourly charts, Nifty has given a bullish RSI Divergence too, which will be confirmed above the recent high of 11250-70

 So, a crucial support, is likely to be found near 11k whereas on the higher side, 11260-70 is a crucial resistance to watch, above which we can expect Nifty to travel till 11330-11390-11540-11620-11800.

On the lower side, supports would be 11000-11030, below that 10970-10870 would be crucial.

Plan of action -

Though the overall trend seems to be down, with lower top lower bottom, since the price are trading near crucial supports, aggressive traders can take bullish positions (if tomorrows opening is near to the today's close) with stop loss below 11000-10970.

On a safer side, one can go long only if prices go above 11270

The targets to expect would be the resistances mentioned above. Do trade with proper risk management and take trades with a favorable Risk : Reward.

Will update you all on the What App broadcast as and when required...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Twinkle Twinkle....Tri Star ! ! !

Update 20th August 9.30 AM

As expected earlier, Nifty took support exactly near 20 DEMA around 11106-110, and bounced back sharply.

Though it had gone higher than the 78.6% retracement mark for a couple of days, looks like it took resistance near the mentioned zones of 11433-11550. Today's gap down opening can be really worrisome for the bulls and in order to continue the trend, Bulls should close this gap (11330-11395) asap.

20 DEMA now stands at 11186-90 and would continue to act as supply. Before that as per hourly charts 11290-11240 would be strong support zones for Nifty.

The plan of action continues to be sell on rise with small profit bookings and trail stops for better outcome...

Cheers

Hrishi...

Update 14th August 2.20 PM

Short triggered below 11230-11200, key levels now would be 11120-11050-11000-11870

Trend line broken below 11200-11210, important levels now on closing basis 

20 DEMA 11100-11106, would be important on closing basis. Price should sustain below these levels on closing basis for a couple of days in order to go further down..

Cheers...

Hrishi...

 

 Hi All,

Hope all is well at your end and you and your loved ones are safe and healthy where ever you are.... 😀

As mentioned in the earlier posts, and on the Whats app broadcasts, Nifty has a resistance near 11377-80, which is a 78.6% retracement of  the entire fall from 12.4k to 7.5k

Following are my observations for the same - 

1. Daily charts, there are gap down resistances for Nifty in the area of  11390-435 to 11540-550. (marked in red)

2. Moreover, as of yesterday, Nifty has created a Tri Star Pattern (Please click here to read on Investopedia), which is a bearish indication (candles 1, 2 and 3). Though the 3rd candle was not exactly a Doji, it was still an indecisive candle.

3. Bollinger Bands on the daily charts are converging, suggesting a lower volatility or sideways action (Time correction)

4. The momentum oscillator, RSI is showing a Negative divergence (Blue lines)

5. However, Nifty, is continuously respecting the 20 DEMA mark which is near 11100... (Yellow line)

6. Nifty is also respecting an upward trend line (White line joining Mar and May 2020 lows) 

So, to sum it up, Nifty continues to rise, in spite of unfavorable circumstances, which might be a way to price in the future good news (Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, you see... 😅😜 )However, is has currently halted near the crucial levels of 11400, and which should be watched very carefully from all the Big Bulls. 

On the lower side, 11230 - 11200 would be very important gap support (marked in green area), and bears can think of entering shorts only below those levels.

However, important to note point numbers 5 and 6, and its advisable to take trades accordingly with strict stop losses and targets.

As per the current chart set up, prices closing above the recent high near 11373.60, would indicate yet another continuation of the current up trend and higher levels can be 11450-11550-11660-11800...

Cheers

Hrishikesh 👍  

#MarketUpdate - Tere Bina bhi Kya Jeena . . . Lol ! ! !

Update - 17th July closing levels

Stop loss for the shorts triggered above 10900... Really, Bull hai ke maanta nahin.... Ha ha ha...

#MarketUpdate - Yeh Bull Hai ke maanta nahin.... BUT . . . ! ! !

Update 15th July 2020 after closing...

Nifty, after opening with gap up, gave off all the gains after taking resistance near 10820-30 mark.

The existing short trade trailing stop loss is held and one can expect it to stick to the levels mentioned earlier...

Update 15th July 2020 9.50 AM...

After taking support near 10550 levels, Nifty gave a strong gap up opening and currently trades at 10730... The gap is a professional gap, and hence yesterday's low would act as strong support. Also, 10600 and 10500 Puts have added a lot of OI suggesting they would act as supports going forward.

On the higher side, 10760-70-10820-10860 are the key levels to watch for. Also 10800 Calls have the highest OI suggesting that level to act as immediate resistance.

For the existing overnight short trade trailing stops can be placed above the resistances mentioned above. Aggressive traders can think of sell on rise with stops above the recent high of 10900 or 11k levels based on own's risk appetite.

Intraday traders can look for short (after a bearish confirmation) with stops above 10770 / 10825...

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - (Updated) Tug of war . . . What to expect for the expiry tomorrow..?

Update - 10.30 AM 9th July 2020

As expected, Nifty couldn't sustain below 10700, and yet again gapped up today (inside gap) and trades near 10790.

In the bargain, Nifty has created an inside professional gap, which should act as strong supports

Also, 10700 added huge huge OI in the Puts, suggesting that expiry is unlikely to be below that.

Plan of Action (only for today) - as 10800 Calls have still seen OI addition, one can sell on rise or even near 10780-90, with stops above 10800 (aggressive) / 10850 (conservative), a safer bet though, would be to buy on dips with stops below 10630-690..

Cheers...

Hrishi

#StockUpdate - (Updated) SBI Cards IPO - What to do now?

Update - 17th July 9.40 AM

Took support near 685 and rallied up. Now at 732... 

Entered the crucial, fresh resistance zone of 730 - 770.... One might see some selling pressure.... Ba cautious...

Cheers

Hrishi 

#MarketUpdate - What to expect in Markets ?

Update 7th July 11.50 AM

As advised those who are short below 10750 or higher levels... can think of booking part profits and trailing stops near cost... As per the OI data, looks likes 10700 might as a good support however some addition in 10700 calls suggest the level might break as well, so be on a safer side, book part and let's ride the downhole if it takes place... Cheers 👍🏼

,..............................

Hi All,

Hope you all are doing good...

Nifty Update... CMP 10765

Index surpassed the 66% retracement of the overall  fall from.12.4k to 7.5k of 10560 and a sustained move or 

consecutive close above this would mean the gates for 11k (70.7%) and 11400 (78.6%)

However  the recent data shows that 10800 CE have added a lot of OI which mean that can act as a resistance...

Also, hourly the contracting  Bollinger Bands suggest a possible sideways to bearish move for an immediate near term.

The daily bands are still in the expanded mode suggesting the short term trend still looks bullish, however the hourly readings and a Bearish Harami like Candle suggests a near term sideways to down ward price action... with supports near 10690 10630 (20HSMA) and finally 10540 30....

The short term trend would continue to remain up i guess if the prices sustain above 10530 - 10560 levels for the index... So that acts as a reversal..

However below 10750 40, we can expect the lower supports mentioned above to be visited..

Aggressive short trades should have a stop above 10800 which needs to be flexible as the OI levels will keep on shifting, have a watchful eye on charts and the OI data.

Existing longs should hold with the stop losses below the supports mentioned as per their trading timeframes. Not advisable to initiate fresh longs can be thought of buying on dips or buy once index sustains above 10800

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bearish gettogether . . . (Updated) Intra / Short Term and Mid term View update...

Update 25th June 2020 6.45 PM

Hi All,

Nifty found it difficult to stay above 10360 levels and hence we could not see any intraday pull back, as mentioned below.

Nifty closed the day below 10300 mark and on daily chart it gives a green candle. It took support near the earlier gap up opening mentioned near 10270, and closed above the same.

However, on weekly chart, the candle is strong bearish candle, but as it is in complete tomorrow's closing below 10300 would be preferred by bears.

Since the Rising window (gap up open) should be closed on a closing basis, after the first leg of fall, I believe a only a convincing close below 10270-250 would take prices further down.

Till such time, respecting the Bearish engulf pattern, sell on rise is advisable with reversal above the recent swing high of 10550-60

Tomorrows closing would be crucial for Nifty going forward, let's wait and Watch

#MarketUpdate - Gapped down . . . (Updated)

Update 12th June 2020 3:20 PM

.....and the Gap closed.....

What a rally that was for intraday...

Hope everyone took a part in this upmove...

Nifty near the resistance near 10k, also showing some weakness on hourly charts, the 30 mins candle look almost like Gravestone Doji (bearish) though a green candle, red would have been preferred, also at a falling trendline resistance, potential for shorting...

But as advised, let's not take a overnight trade for this weekend....

Cheers

Happy Weekend...

#MarketUpdate - Belt Hold. . . What's next for Nifty now?

Hi All,

Sorry for updating the blog after a while, couldn't do so as was caught up, however those are connected with me on What's App could have gotten the occasional trades / updates.

Now, further to the view published on 15th May, Advantage Bulls...? After breaking below 9040-900, Nifty did fell towards 8800 and yet again took support, suggesting a kind of sideways move. However after surpassing 9500-9700 and especially 9889, the high of the first bearish island pattern of  30th April, it gave a higher top higher top formation on the daily charts, suggesting a bullish trend.

Further to our earlier predictions, Nifty after sustaining above the 9900-10000 mark, a 50% retracement of the entire fall from 12400-7500, the next target ideally should be near 10440-10550, which is the 61.8% retracement of the fall and a kind of last resort for bears.

However, as per today's close, Nifty, near a crucial gap resistance which was formed between 11th and 12th March, has formed a Bearish Belt Hold  Pattern (click to read more), which suggests there might be downward reaction after such a strong upmove of last couple of weeks.

So, as today's high near 10328, being in the gap down resistance range of 10040-10324, the levels of 10330-10350 will act as a strong resistance and would be a hurdle for any up move further.

However it is important to note that, thanks to the Higher Top, Higher Bottom on daily and weekly charts, the medium term trend looks positive, the mid term reversal can be 9944-40, hence any down fall can be a counter reaction to the extended up move and hence can be for a very near term of less than a week or so....

Moreover, Nifty has formed a kind of triangular consolidation after a strong up move, which can be termed as a continuation bullish pattern similar to a pennant, and a close above 10180 can mean a strong up trend to continue for the index and could even target more than 11.3k (also near the 78.6% retracement of the entire fall, which is the next level to be watched for after 61.8%), however for that it would be advisable to have sitained close above 11550-600 levels which are the retracments.

In a nutshell, though there are enough positive triggers for bulls and even the momentum being with them, as Nifty is trading near a crucial gap resistance of 10040-10334, and near crucial retracement levels (10438-10552) from the entire fall from 12430, I am a bit bearish for near term, with a reversal above the resistances mentioned.

But, all said and done, a bearish view, like all other candle chart patterns, is only confirmed when prices sustain below the pattern's low, i.e. today's low near 10120. Below this, initially nifty can target 10040-10000-9940, where 9940 remains the crucial bottom to decide the further course of price action.

So, bulls are advised to be a bit cautious, whereas price formation offers a great low risk opportunity for bears below 10120, with targets near 10040-9940. In order to have a proper risk reward a sell on rise would be advisable with stops above 10350...

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Advantage Bulls ? ? ?

My answer is, Less likely....

After a couple of Bearish Island patterns on Daily charts, as expected, bears managed to push price further down today, however, a support near 9040-9000 worked for Bulls, yet again...

Moreover, Bulls managed a strong pull back of more than 100 points today, and thus we have a sizable buying pressure candle, almost similar to a Bullish Hammer, on daily charts. Nifty also managed to close above a recent trend line for the 3rd time today, confirming the same as well

However, unlike my several earlier Hammer related posts, this doesn't seem to a a very Bullish evidence, especially after the strong bearishness showed up by the bears by Islands on the top near Supertrend resistance, comparatively severe bearish patterns than Hammer.

I feel, it is less likely that the prices will find a short term bottom and and move up further. However, taking in to account couple of bullish evidences mentioned above, it is quite possible that we might enter in to a sideways price action for sometime, before continuing the downtrend further. The Bollinger band, which has contracted, already gives that hint.

So, in a nutshell, prices, if can not take out 9250-9350 (hourly Supertrend - Gap down ), further upside is unlikely, on the lower side today's low near 9050 and 9000 will be crucial to watch out for. As many of the news events and announcements are already factored in, and in an absence of any new anticipated event to discount, prices might trade sideways, in the range of 9000- 9600. And below 9k, 8900-8800 would be to watch out for (weak supports) whereas above 9600, 9900-1000 would be fresh hurdles.

Watch out for 9000-40 and 9550-9600...

Cheers

Happy Weekend....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Island mai Island....

Update 14 May 2020 2.40 PM

Nifty, exactly took support near the hourly Supertrend of 9120. A close above this would mean that a bounce back from bulls can not be ruled out. Resistances would be near 9280-9360-9410-9500-9590

So on the lower side, 9120-9070-9040-9000 would be crucial and the down trend would only be at a risk if the daily tops near 9580-9600 is taken out by bulls. As Nifty has given a first retracement towards the hourly Supertren, upside, if any, only possible above 9190-9200...

Since markets are near a support zone, it is advisable not to be on selling side, fresh shorts can be initiated below supports, or advisabley, as I always mention at resistances mentioned above (with a bearish evidence too)

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Confirmed... L T L B

Hi All,

As the Bearish Island on top suggested the advantage Bears, Nifty is not able to sustain the higher levels for a while now, and it has confirmed a Lower Top Lower Bottom on daily charts, which suggests Nifty is controlled by bears and can fall at least till 8900-8800...  The bearish view would be in tact till such time Nifty doesnt cross 9450-9550 0n the higher side.

Basis the retracement, 8980-8700-8400 would be support areas. The bias remains negative till the resistance near 9440-9550 is not surpassed by the bulls.

On the lower side though 8900-8800 are support zones, they are weak supports and not likely to hold the downfall, however, basis the law of demand and supply they should be respected to an extent. 9000 remains a crucial psychological support

The plan of action would be sell on rise with stops above the resistances mentioned.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bearish Island... (updated)

Update - 5th May 9.20 AM

A PRO Inside gap up, bias remains bullish, buy on dips with stops below 9240....

Also, Nifty has taken support and closed above the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent rise (Yellow colour, 9280) and 23.6% retracement of the entire rise from 7500 (Green colour, 9328)

A close now, above 9330-40 could mean the next leg upwards is in the making.....

A cause of concern is, on daily Nifty took resistance exactly near the Supertrend, hence any upside will  be capped only till the recent high near 9880...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Surpassed....

Hi all,

Though, found it a bit difficult, 8800, acted strongly, and allowed Nifty to bounce back sharply. It has now crossed 9320-9400 convincingly.

Going forward, Nifty is resting now near the upper end of the triangle patten mentioned in the earlier post. at 9600. After sustaining above 9600, Nifty should ideally move towards the 50% retracement of the entire fall from 12400-7500, near 9880-9900... And above that, it should target 10k and 10400-500 levels...

As Nifty is at the upper end of the triangle, possible we can see some muted action / correction, however, still the time Nifty closes above 9400, the ideal target would be near 9880-9900

Cheers
  

#MarketUpdate - Finding it difficult...

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, Nifty should ideally be going up till 9800 or even 10500 levels as a pull back to the fall from 12.4 k to 7.5 k before continuing the downward journey, even probably below 7500.

However, based on retracements it was crucial that Nifty surpases and sustains above the 38.2% retracement mark of 9320 , and upon failing to do so, Nifty might stop its upward journey can even turn downwards from here it self.

One another reason for this can be a bearish triangle formation on daily charts, wherein Nifty finding it difficult to surpass 9300-9400 levels. Another thing is USDINR, which failed to go down after it started a downfall and now the same is near another life time high of 76.9-77...

VIX, the volatility however cooled down as expected and corrected by 50% from the highs of 86 till 40.

So, if 9300-400 are not surpassed, we can expect Nifty halt the up ward pull back rally, and 8800-8700 would be supports on the lower side, below which Nifty can even go down till 8000-7700-7500...

As mentioned in the earlier posts, below 7500, 7200 (50 retracement of the entire rally from 2250-12400)-6800 (the 2016 low near 6800 would) - 6350 (high of 2008 before the fall) would act as crucial....

Another possiblity can also be, if USDINR corrects and VIX cools down a bit more towards 20 / 30,  then the markets might trade sideways in a broad range without breaking lows of 7500 and could surpass 9300-400 levels and trade higher till 9800-10500 as expected earlier.

In a nutshell, bullish bias can continue only after a sustaining move above 9330-50, bias would change to negative below 8800-8700...

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarketUpdate - All is well... For a while though... (Updated)

Update 17th april 10.45 PM

Bullish observations - 
After a nice rally till, 9260, Nifty fell sharply and took support near the 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from 7500 to 9260 (marked with Green retracements).


After creating a new high near 9320 today, Nifty continued the Higher Top Higher Bottom formation

Bearish observations - 

However after creating a new high, Nifty has now taken a resistance exactly at 38.2% retracement near 9320 (Red retracements) , this is a concern and any upside only possible when Nifty sustains above it. After that 50% retracement is near 9880 and 61.8% retracement near 10450... 

Supports - 9120-9050-8950-8910-8860-8820-8800, and then as mentioned below 
Resistances - 9250-9310-9330, and then as mentioned below

Unless Nifty sustains above 8800, the bias should be up and one can look at buy on dips with supports in mind.

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Ray of Hope? (Updated)

Update - 27th March 3.30 PM

As posted on the What's App broadcast in the morning, the news of rate cut by RBI has already been discounted by the markets and hence, with Buy The Rumpor, Sell the Fact analogy, a fall or a correction was expected after the news broke out today after the RBI announcement...

the gap up opening in the morning was given up immediately after the news, as the correction was of more than 500 points as the markets sold off from the highs of 9038 levels till 8522, though settled near 8674, marginally up by 13 points.

On hourly charts... Though. Nifty is kind of making a Head and Shoulder (bearish) patter, the RSI shows a Bullish hidden divergence. Also there would be hourly (closing basis) support near  8330, which is the Supertrend.

So in a nutshell, bias would remain bullish, unless Nifty holds to the trendline drawn on the chart above (8600-40), below which 8380-8330(Supertrend)-8270 can be good supports. If the Head and Shoulders materializes, the potential target could be near 8k mark...

However, hidden divergence means, above 8700 and 9040, Nifty can scale further highs near the resistances shown in the chart below...

Trade accordingly....

Cheers, have a great weekend...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - What's next? (Updated 26/03)

Update - 26th March 2020, 9.20 AM

Though, Nifty neither did respect the Morning star pattern nor held on to the mentioned supports, and could not surpass the same, we didn't get any long entry then....

However, below 7800, Nifty halted near the first support mentioned of 7500, and after creating a low of 7511, has so far rallied till 8300-8400

It is very crucial now, that the recovery which happens, should take place in a consolidation manner and there should not be any V shape recovery as seen earlier, as they prove to be short lived.

On the IV side, since 6th Mar, it closed in red only for the second time yesterday, and more importantly, created a bearish like pattern (Harami / Dark Cloud), and today, slipped below yesterday's low, further bearish confirmation for IV can be when IV breaks the low near 71.95, which would confirm the bearish pattern. (CMP 76.90).

All said and done, a recovery, or let me say a sustained recovery can only be possible if we consolidate near these levels with a gradual fall in India VIX... If, without breaking the supports, if VIX creates a new life above 86.64, it could mean some more volatility and pain is still left for markets on its way down...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bang Bang . . But is the worst over.. ? ? ?

Hey all,

After a sudden sell off at the opening itself, Nifty hit its 4th ever down circuit of 10% and was halted for 45 minutes. That 10 minute slaughter took Nifty to 8600 levels. Even after re-opening, it traded a bit in the negative territory, and created a low near 8550.

And then, as we checked yesterday, bounced back sharply from there to trade near 10k levels now. This, I guess is the biggest intraday pullback I ever saw in my market in past 16 years. 

A pull back of close to 1600 points from the lows of 8555 to the high of 10160.. Which is a roaring 18.7% jump ! ! !

Now, as suggested in my other post of yesterday in What To Do?, if any one has purchased anything on today or yesterday, would already be profit mostly, so enjoy and keep on holding for great returns.

A common question now would be why the markets pulled back so much.... And my answer is common... Buy the Rumour Sell the fact...

It is heard that the Finance Minister is likely to address the media at 3:00 PM now, and market grapevine suggests there could be announcement regarding the Yes Bank bailout package or / and probable fiscal stimulus (similar to what US did last night)..... 

As per me, prices are discounting these facts currently, and post a positive announcement (IF ANY), it might stabilize a bit. Notably, the VIX (Volatility index) had rallied up to almost 59%, which is even higher than the 2008 crisis, and surely, it needs to cool down...

On the higher side, the first resistance for Nifty would be near a big downward gap of 10040 to 10340, after pulling back sharply towards 10150, it has now corrected a but and is trading near 9980

Personal view - 

The way bulls have managed to come back in a style, today's low would be very crucial markets to decide the course of action for upcoming months / years. However, any further upside can only be possible if markets take out this high of 10160...

Also, based on the wave counts I reckoned, after rallying for a while, or consolidating till the resistances (if surpasses 10160...) near 10350-10500-10750-10840, I feel Nifty can still, potentially go down, and even lower than 8500... Time would only answer this eventually.

Also owing to the highest volatility, remember to trade with strict stops and targets.

Plan of actions for investors, please keep adding quality stocks with every 5 or 10% corrections.

For traders, the immediate term bias remains bullish, unless Nifty holds the recent lows...

Let us wait and watch for a trade set up, if it unfolds on the charts...

Till then...

Cheers

Hrishi.. 

.

#MarketUpdate - Leee Bazaar, Nifty 9 Hajaar.... Ab kya Vichaar? (Advanced Technicals)

Hi all,

Everyone, connected to finance, right now would be thinking of a song,

Ye... Kya hua... Kaise hua... Kab hua....

Investors would singing, Kya hua, tera vaada... Ha ha ha...

Jokes apart... but, excuse me for the start, in case it did not go well with someone.. But after such a challenging time, thought to at least start the post, on a lighter note, as it is going to have some important / advance inputs to the best of my knowledge....

Let's get started and try to decode it for the upcoming time...

As posted earlier, thanks to the bearish pennant pattern, Nifty hit the target of 10k, honestly, in a very quick manner than I expected... Moreover, it also slipped by more than 5% below the targets and is currently trading near 9.5 k in India

Please also note, at the time of writing this, SGX is trading near 8.7k, down by more than 800 points from today's close...

Now... most important... What to expect going forward...

Looking at the monthly chart, one can notice 2 trend lines, 1st connecting lows of 2008 - 2013 (white), and other one connecting 2013 - 2016 bottoms (Yellow)

Please note that, both the trend lines are not confirmed ones and as they are long term, just a prediction that they might help bulls.

By looking at the SGX Nifty future, looks like 2nd yellow trend line would not hold.

However, the other white trend line coincides near a weekly support / demand zone of 9k to 9.2k, moreover, near the same mark, on daily and weekly chart, there is a small gap up opening (of March 2017) which also might act as support... We call it, Confluence of indicators... There is also a very small gap in Feb 2017 between 8783-8805.

Finally, based on my understanding of the Fibonacci retracements and the little knowledge I have about the Elliott Waves... Out of the larger move from 2252 (Oct 2008) to 12430 (January 2020), Nifty has already completed 23.6% correction of around 10k levels, and now the next pit stop would be near the next crucial mark of 38.2% around 8500 levels.

As per my understanding, for a healthy and sustainable upmove, the corrections usually halt near 38.2% (they can also be as deep as 50% or 61.8%, and 78.6% is the last resort, below which the entire up trend gets challenged, to an extent. But that may not be an option as such, as breaking 6357 will disturb the entire bullish wave count, and everything might go for toss then... even a time to worry for investors, may be)

Also, previous top of Mar 2015, and likely the support zone now, too, comes near the aforesaid range of 8900-9100, creating another confluence.

So, to sum it up...

I feel the area of 8450 on the lower side (a gap up of 13 points in Jan 2017) and 9100 on the higher side, should ideally offer a great amount of help for bulls going forward, and may make sense too, as after creating a low near 8570, SGX Nifty bounced back sharply to trade near 9k levels at the time of writing this post. Below that notable supports can only be near 7900-8000 and 7300 (being the 50% retracement marked above)

Most importantly, unlike all the steep falls in the past, including the 2008 crash, volumes are surprisingly decreasing for the current fall, making the case even more stronger for bulls...

So, let us see in the coming times, what's all in the offering for traders...

Cheers till then...

Hrishi

Nifty @ 9k.... WHAT TO DO? (Especially for beginners...)

Massacre..... Mayhem.... Bloodbaath....

Recently, As a market participant / an enthusiast... I m sure, you would have come across these words regarding the financial markets... They are spread either by them who know the inherent potential of markets or by someone with no interest or knowhow...

Those who are untouched with it.... well... Great... and You shouldn't be as such.....

This is going to be a lengthy post, mainly for those who feel shattered/devastated/exhausted/frightened/demotivated/ with this market move.... 

My advise to them... is... Just hold on....

And, I never say this, but looking at the current scenario and recent interactions with you all, 

request you to share it with those it may matter... if you find it useful 

So, from the life high of around 12.4k, Nifty has fallen to 9.5k,which is a fall of close to 20%... (at the time of writing this post, SGX Nifty is already trading near 8.6k levels)

Firstly... This is not the only time when markets are down more than 15-20%, earlier in 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018 Nifty the same thing has happened...

In fact, in 2008, due to the global sub prime crisis, Nifty was down by almost 65% from the top, so relax... though this is not usual, it's not a massacre / mayhem.....

Now the next point is, why are we falling... So we are falling, along with the global indices which are down by almost the same magnitude... Reason being... a mix of Corona virus outbreak and global oil price war, coupled with domestic and global economic slowdown concerns....

Which means, it's not only India... like the fall of 2008, the entire globe is down by 12 to 30% approx

Is the fall over, where will it stop?

Honestly, as stated above, there were bigger falls, and we can't say...

(Will be posting my technical report soon, please click here. for the same) 

What's important here is to know is....

What usually happens after a fall of such a quantum...

Historically, since the last 15 odd years, for which I am following the Indian markets, it is observed, that after a fall of anything above 10-20%, on an average...

Next 1 year returns are ~ +30%
Next 2 year returns are ~ +50%
Next 3 year returns are ~ +65%
Next 5 year returns are ~ +100%

Source... Nifty Daily/Monthly data... anyone can check the major falls I stated above...

Just to give an instance...

Before the fall, in 2008 Nifty fell from 6.3k levels to 2.2k levels in Oct 2008..

But within 2 years, in 2010 November, Nifty was back at that level, which is almost a 300% rise...

Which means, be it a financial crisis, or any other type of crisis geo political, social, medical ,etc, Markets have always handled it, sooner or later....

So, now the big question is

What do we do now....

For seasoned traders, request you to refer to my other post

#MarketUpdate - Leee Bazaar, Nifty 9 Hajaar.... Ab kya Vichaar? (Advanced Technicals)

But for long term investors, like I have been saying umpteen number of times in my sessions, investing is Buy and Hold (the quality stuff, off course...)

Hence, this is a time to BUY or ADD On to the quality ...

For some of you, especially new entrants, this might really sound, idiotic/pathetic/illogical,

but trust me, you will thank me in 2030..... for sure...

Even if, anyone is not able to dare to buy right now, my suggestion is, at least DONT SELL, let the markets settle, which might take a few month or even this entire year, and then enter, but do not sell in panic....

I am not getting in to the specific stock selection, as it demands a bit of expertise... My advice to anyone is at least enter in to Index ETF, in a staggered manner (SIP)... (ETFs - NiftyBees, JuniorBees, M100, BankBees, PSU BankBees, Gold Bees (as a hedge)

I feel, and practice this... Usually, any 10% fall in the main index calls for averaging out for lowering the cost of purchase....

Ending up with a quote by Mr. Warren Buffet...

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"

This quote, is very famous and well known, even to the new entrants...

but trust me... very hard to Act upon....

This topic is never rending, and to know about more and detailed dimensions, you all have my contact details, feel free to revert....

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarketUpdate - Nifty 10k....

Update - 12th March 9.30 AM - 

Target achieved @ 10k....



Update - 11th March 2020 3.30 PM

After respecting some positive cues from 15 mins and hourly charts, markets pulled back by almost 100 points on  Monday and could not be a part of the global roller coaster ride, thanks to the Oil prices, as we were closed yesterday.

With a due respect to the global cues today morning, Nifty rallied up by more than 100 points today as well, however, could not sustain the rise and finally closed the day flat, up by just 6 points. In the bargain, it has shown a kind of Bullish Counter attack pattern on daily charts, which would be confirmed only above 10550-60 levels, however, by looking at the turmoil world wide it is not advisable to go long with such a mild evidence.... (aggressive traders can take a chance of a long trade with lesser position sizing and strict stop losses)

Nonetheless it shows that the bottoms near 10300 will act as a crucial support for the time being and we can see a relief rally after a massive sell off of in past couple of weeks. Though the bias remains negative, 10300 levels should be watched carefully by the bears.

Resistances updated on the chart

Cheers

Hrishi....
_________________________________________________________________________________

#MarketUpdate - Bottomed out ? ? ?

Update - 3.25 PM 5th March 2020

Nifty exactly took resistance near the start of resistance area marked on the charts near 11380-400... Hence, now on it's way down, buy on dips is valid, provided there is a bullish evidence on intraday hourly charts,,,

Cheers...

Hrishi

#IPO SBI Cards - What to do?

Update on the listing day... 16th Mar 9.45 AM

By looking at the current market scenario, looks difficult to have 30% + listing gains like predicted earlier.. however, I personally feel, it should open up by around 10%...

Those who applied for it for mere listing gains, would be advisable to get out as markets are showing some more pain points in spite of  a smart pullback of Friday ....

Trading view for intra or short term....  based on candles of, 5, 15 or 60 mins.. 

Buy above the high, with a sl below the low of that candle...

Strictly a personal view...

For long term investment, take required cues from financials...

Hi all

A lot of you asked me personally about SBI Cards IPO.... So here it is...

Though the business is not niche, it is well known and promising in the current scenario. However as you all might be aware by now, that for financial valuation for investing purpose, I am not the best person....

But, by looking at the grey market and listening to market grapevine, it looks very good from listing gains point of view.... I feel, on a conservative side should give handsome gains on listing by at least 30 to 40%.

Also the issue size is comfortably big, and hence probability of getting an allotment is surely high.

My advice is to apply for the IPO only with listing gains perspective, for long term investing, request you to follow the available information on the internet...

Before the listing date, will try and share my opening day trading startegy to trade IPO.... Stay Tuned...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Back with a HAMMER

Update - 28th Feb 9.40 AM

Long trade not initiated as Nifty did not surpass the Hammer's high.....

Markets have fallen by almost 10% from the all time high near 11430, hence traders are advised to take trades with proper trading edge and money management.\

Notable supports now are 11000 - 11280......

Would not be advisable to go long without any bullish evidence...

It would be a great opportunity for investors though, to buy quality stuff (Bluechips, ETFs, Mutual funds, etc) for long term investing at low prices.

Cheers....

#StockUpdate - Yes Bank... Yes or No ?

Hi All,

A lot of you are asking me about Yes Bank. Though there was a sign of relief when it rallied almost till Rs. 78 in October 2019, it has again fallen back to the earlier lows near 30-35 levels.

When it was near these levels earlier, I had suggested a long position with stops below 15-20 levels for an upside till 60-80, which was almost achieved.

Now, on the fundamental front, there is a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty regarding the stock and I did not track it in detail on those grounds (also not interested in doing so... ha ha ha)

Technically, the stock has gradually fallen from 78 to ~ 35 levels now and trades near a monthly support below 29... Back then, the monthly chart of Sep and Oct 2019 had formed a strong Bullish pattern viz. Bullish Separating Lines, however the same was not confirmed as the prices could not cross the pattern high of 78.7 in the following months.

My Plan of Action

1. Investors - Those who are holding it from an investment perspective, as mentioned earlier, the fundamental aspect needs to be checked thoroughly and there are lot of uncertainties. Better to take a view based on financials for the same

One can use these bullish confirmations to average out the position to reduce the average cost if buying, however a detailed look at the fundamentals would surely be advised...

2. Traders -

a. Since the prices are trading near the supports of 29-30 levels, those already holding a positional trade as advised to hold it with that stop loss

b. Aggressive traders can think of buying at current levels of Rs. 35 with stop loss below 29 (closing basis) and targets near 45-48-53 in short to mid term, however important to note that the stock is just trading near support and has not given any other positive confirmation.

c. On a safer side, a long trade can be initiated once we get a bullish evidence on the shorter time frames either weekly, daily or hourly as per the tenure of your trade and act accordingly

In a nutshell, levels of 29 looks like the last ray of hopes for bulls, below which the stock may tumble down further to 23-20-15 levels...

#BudgetUpdate - Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact...As Simple As That . ! ! !

Hi All,

As explained in the earlier Budget Day post, As there was a downward move before the budget i.e. fro 12430 to the Budget day low of 11633, it was expected that Nifty should trade with a positive bias starting this week.

Accordingly, Nifty started the week positively and has already covered more than half of the downfall of budget, already up by almost 2% from the bottom.

On the hourly chart, Nifty gave a strong Bullish engulf pattern on the first candle yesterday and traded straight away with an upward bias.... After the recent price moments, the low near 11600, should act as a strong support going forward, if the rally need to continue upwards. Levels near 11500 as mentioned earlier and 11600 would see a strong buying pressure as it is also a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 11090-12430 levels and hence, any bearish view is only below these levels.

On the up side, Nifty will face immediate resistance near 11850-60 mark, post which 11900-11940 will be crucial levels to watch for which is the hourly Super trend.

If the markets sustained today's Gap up opening,  11700-11750 would be good supports on the lower side...

Plan of Action....

Firstly, though was not advisable on a Budget day, if anyone has taken a short trade suggested below the supports of 11900, must close the short trade as it has done its job by going down till almost 11600 mark.

Going long right now may not be advisable as the risk reward is not favourable and hence, my action would be buy on dips with stops below the supports mentioned on top and marked in the chart.

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - What to Expect on the D - Day... #Budget

First and foremost thing...

VOLATILITY

As we all know, today is the day of volatile moves.... Already proven today with close to 1.5% movement already, and the Budget is not even started. Otherwise, the historical data shows that Budget day closing ranges between -3% to 4-5%.

Regarding levels, Nifty will have supports near 11900-11800 mark below which the sentiments would become completely bearish. In intraday, Nifty has opened with a lot of bearishness and created a low in the support area mentioned, near 11880, and sharply bounced back to trade currently above 12k mark, at the start of the budget... It's important to remember that, below 11800, material support finds itself only near 11500

On the higher side.... 12060-12110-12170 will act as strong resistances for the index.

I feel, irrespective of the technicals, advisably, the bias for today should be " Stay Away" from the markets, as the volatility is already near 17.5% with resistance near 19.20%

So trade unless something is very concrete to be traded upon, else it's better to stay away and enjoy the Budget in a weekend mood... :)

However, for those who desperately want to trade, my suggestion is not to short at current levels and wait for supports to be broken sustainably, and going long on dips with supports as stop losses. Still, would want to reiterate, it's better to watch today's trading session from outside the markets, as it's just a day, and wouldn't cost you much...

Personally I feel, real estate, Pharma, healthcare, banking, FMCG, agri stocks (fertilizers, etc), railways are the sectors would be trading with a positive bias... Any announcement on Income Tax Slab, or corporate tax, which is already expected atleast for Income Tax, would be cherished and applauded by the traders, respectively with the quantum of the announcement. Also, any positive announcement on Dividemt Ditribution Tax or the STT would take markets to even a new high. However, I fear, lack of any concrete announcement on tax front, may really hammer the markets down.

All said and done, please remember the analogy I keep quoting in my posts, Buy the rumour, sell the Fact... And as the markets have already given a bit of correction already for past couple of weeks, provided that we have a balanced or even neutral Budget, one should trade with a positive bias starting next week, provided the levels are adhered to.... With extra volatility, the levels might be changed, and I would inform the same in the next post, if any material changes takes place...

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarketUpdate - Budget...What's in it for Nifty ? (Updated)

Update - 29th Jan 10.10 PM

Risky traders book partial profits near 12140, longs initiated near 12060

#MarketUpdate - Counter attack ! ! !

Hi All,

Wish you all a very Happy and a Prosperous New Year...

The new is is quite not as prosperous for the markets though... Due to the ongoing tensions between US and Iran, coupled with domestic economic growth issues, Nifty witnessed a rollercoaster ride this year. Firstly, it could not take out the lifetime high made on 20th December and fell by almost 2% to sub 12k levels.

Though looks very surprising given the current geo political and economic conditions mentioned above, but bulls are not allowing bears to keep the prices low for today and yesterday, by pulling it strongly by 0.5% and 1% from the day's low.

Moreover, today Nifty has given a strong bullish pattern, Counter attack on the daily charts and it has taken a support on the hourly supertrend near 11940, which convinces me to believe that the recent lows near 11900-940 would be very important for bears and any further downfall can only be expected if the bears can sustain the index below these levels.


Supports - 12000-11970-11940-11900
Resistances - 12075-12100-12160-12240-12290

Plan of action - Given the uncertainty and the volatility prevailing at the micro and macro levels, even though i am bullish for near term, it would be a bit risky to initiate an overnight trade and advisable to trade with high amount of caution and with strict stop losses even for intraday

Cheers

Hrishi...!