Hi All,
As mentioned earlier, Nifty should ideally be going up till 9800 or even 10500 levels as a pull back to the fall from 12.4 k to 7.5 k before continuing the downward journey, even probably below 7500.
However, based on retracements it was crucial that Nifty surpases and sustains above the 38.2% retracement mark of 9320 , and upon failing to do so, Nifty might stop its upward journey can even turn downwards from here it self.
One another reason for this can be a bearish triangle formation on daily charts, wherein Nifty finding it difficult to surpass 9300-9400 levels. Another thing is USDINR, which failed to go down after it started a downfall and now the same is near another life time high of 76.9-77...
VIX, the volatility however cooled down as expected and corrected by 50% from the highs of 86 till 40.
So, if 9300-400 are not surpassed, we can expect Nifty halt the up ward pull back rally, and 8800-8700 would be supports on the lower side, below which Nifty can even go down till 8000-7700-7500...
As mentioned in the earlier posts, below 7500, 7200 (50 retracement of the entire rally from 2250-12400)-6800 (the 2016 low near 6800 would) - 6350 (high of 2008 before the fall) would act as crucial....
Another possiblity can also be, if USDINR corrects and VIX cools down a bit more towards 20 / 30, then the markets might trade sideways in a broad range without breaking lows of 7500 and could surpass 9300-400 levels and trade higher till 9800-10500 as expected earlier.
In a nutshell, bullish bias can continue only after a sustaining move above 9330-50, bias would change to negative below 8800-8700...
Cheers
Hrishi....
As mentioned earlier, Nifty should ideally be going up till 9800 or even 10500 levels as a pull back to the fall from 12.4 k to 7.5 k before continuing the downward journey, even probably below 7500.
However, based on retracements it was crucial that Nifty surpases and sustains above the 38.2% retracement mark of 9320 , and upon failing to do so, Nifty might stop its upward journey can even turn downwards from here it self.
One another reason for this can be a bearish triangle formation on daily charts, wherein Nifty finding it difficult to surpass 9300-9400 levels. Another thing is USDINR, which failed to go down after it started a downfall and now the same is near another life time high of 76.9-77...
VIX, the volatility however cooled down as expected and corrected by 50% from the highs of 86 till 40.
So, if 9300-400 are not surpassed, we can expect Nifty halt the up ward pull back rally, and 8800-8700 would be supports on the lower side, below which Nifty can even go down till 8000-7700-7500...
As mentioned in the earlier posts, below 7500, 7200 (50 retracement of the entire rally from 2250-12400)-6800 (the 2016 low near 6800 would) - 6350 (high of 2008 before the fall) would act as crucial....
Another possiblity can also be, if USDINR corrects and VIX cools down a bit more towards 20 / 30, then the markets might trade sideways in a broad range without breaking lows of 7500 and could surpass 9300-400 levels and trade higher till 9800-10500 as expected earlier.
In a nutshell, bullish bias can continue only after a sustaining move above 9330-50, bias would change to negative below 8800-8700...
Cheers
Hrishi....
