#Marketupdate - Bull है, के मानता नहीं...!

Hi All,

Nifty traded with a weak bias for the first our of day, however later showed a great strength to bounce back by almost 200 points from the bottom of 10848, but again. like the earlier days, could not sustain the higher levels once again and gave off, some of the points from the high of the day (more than 100 points, but closed around 80 points lower from the top)

In this entire battle, Nifty ended up giving a Spinning Top (Read details) like candle on daily charts, As it shows indecision on account of a tug of war between bulls Vs. bears, and can also be treated as a mild warning for Bears (if prices sustain above today's high), hence it can be interpreted as a continuation / reversal pattern too. Hence, can not be called as an conclusive evidence.

Even the hourly chart today, showed a bullish pattern similar to Morning Star, and thanks to which Nifty rallied by 200 points, again to face resistance near the hourly Supertrend near 11050-60.

So, in order to expect a small pullback / relief rally, on Monday/onward

1.  A smaller evidence can be, an hourly price close above the 11050-60 levels 2. 2. Followed by some material bullish evidence on daily charts

Till then, I would say, "Advantage Bears" to continue...

So, in a nutshell, Bulls are trying their level best to fight back, but every single time for 5th consecutive trading sessions, they have been suppressed by Bears, hence the plan of action remains almost same as posted earlier.

Also sustaining below would confirm continuation of the down trend and we can expect Nifty to target lower levels mentioned in yesterday's update...

Cheers & Happy Weekend ! ! !

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Bulls के अरमाँ आसुओं में बह गये... :(

Hi All,

Ha ha ha... jokes apart, but all hell break loose for Nifty Bulls, as the index did not hold the key area of 10950-11050, and upon breaking 10950, it had a free fall till 10880 levels.

Though, there was a strong pull back after Nifty was negative by more than 2%, the same was not very convincing as markets still closed below the opening for yesterday, hence  giving a Hammer like Red Candle.

Today, in opening trade, in spite of a sharp pull back yesterday, index could not sustain higher levels, and in fact broke the low for yesterday as well.

 As expected, after breaching the important level of 10950, Nifty now marching towards its next target near 10800 mark, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12k....

Though, as shown in the chart, markets are really oversold with RSI near 22 (Happened earlier in Oct 18 and Nov 16), indices trading near the retracement level and a demand zone, by looking at the bear force, it is NOT advisable to go long..

The bias for markets would continue to be bearish untill we get any material bullish evidences and hence the plan of action would be staying short and sell on rise with immediate target of 10800-10850 (Nifty almost kissed this area  today). No going long untill there is any bullish evidence as if Nifty fails to hold 10800 the next wider support zone is going to be 10720-10530....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Hammered, as expected . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted yesterday, after such a huge sell off for past few days, markets were due for a pull back and the same happened today when Nifty found support in the range of 10950-11050 by creating a low, just below the 11k mark (10999.4).

Though indices started the day on a weak note, after really a long time, Bulls made their presence felt today. it bounced back by more than 100 bps (1%) to close in a comfortable positive territory. In the process of pullback, on hourly charts, Nifty created a Hammer like bullish pattern near the lows and gained almost 100 points after triggering the pattern above 11052-60.

However, the battle is not won, as thanks to a continuous fall so far, there are many hurdles to be crossed. Also, to begin with, lack of convincing evidences on daily charts yet, this upmove can only be termed as a relief rally for bulls and should be looked at as a sell on rise opportunity

On hourly charts, resistances would be 11180-11240-11270-11320-11370-11420.

Importantly, today's low near the support zone (11050-10950) would act as very crucial for bulls and if they manage to hold on, we can at least expect a small relief rally, but if the same is violated, then more pain for sure....

Plan of action - For all those who are already long near the 11k mark, it's advisable to book partial profits and have strict trailing stop losses, a short is only advisable below the support zone or more preferably on the higher side after a bearish evidence on intraday charts...

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Massive sell off.... A Bloodbath?

Hi All,

Though Nifty saw a minor pull back of around 100 points after triggering the entry (11600) for a Hammer like candle as mentioned in the earlier post, it could not sustain the upmove and witnessed a massive sell off from the levels of 11700.

Out of the previous 9 trading days, bulls could only manage a single green candle on the charts. The sell off was so powerful that it did not show any respect whatsoever for the important support area near 11100 (weekly support of 2nd week of May) and closed lower than that near 11085.

Now going ahead, important levels to watch out for would be....

1. Weekly Supertrend support near 11050-60, a close below which would mean more pain for bulls.
2. 11040, a 50% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12.1k.
3. 11000, daily swing bottom (support) in March 1st week.
4. 10950-11000, rising window support (upward gap) on daily charts.
5. 11000 also being a psychological support level

Which means the area of 10950-11050 has the confluence of many support points and I feel would be a the ray of hope for bulls, a fall below which might mean more pain in the offering for the bulls which might take Nifty to lower levels of

• 10800 (61.8% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 11720-10550 (Daily support)
• 10450 (78.6% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 10333 a daily bottom.

In past 4 days, markets have opened positive and closed in negative territory, hence there seems to be no respite for bulls without any bullish implications.

However, RSI has really become oversold near 26 (which is below 30), and is in 20s only after October 2018, therefore a bounce can not be ruled out (if and only if there is any bullish evidence). so shorting at current levels may not be a good idea.

In a nutshell, it is advisable to be cautious for trading on either sides and strictly stick to a rule based trading (with predefined entry, stop loss and targets) with proper money management.

Will keep you all posted for any material developments going forward...

Cheers