#KnowledgeSeries - Watch - Your Way to Financial Success ! ! !

Hi All,

Just thought of sharing a video, recorded by me couple of years back.

Check it out, to explore avenues for building wealth from Stock Markets....


An hour long video covers a detailed discussion on -

• Financial Success with Capital Markets
• Two prime ways for building wealth
• A popular, misleading myth, busted
• Secret to success.

Cheers...

Happy Weekend....

Market update - BANG ON ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted earlier, Nifty failed to cross 10620-10750 levels (38.2 and 50% retracement of the recent fall), and is currently down by more than 1.5% near 10400. Unfortunately though, due to the gap down opening many would not have been short on the higher side.

After a steep fall, Nifty might see an intraday bounce on the up side however, it may not be safe to trade it. For intraday supports will be near 10370-10340-10310-10270, however it is not advisable to go long currently without any material bullish evidence. Intraday resistance will be near 10480-10500-10530 levels...

Going forward, for short term 10270 will now be very crucial and breaking that Nifty might slip to 10000-10100 levels which is a psychological support zone... Below that the gates for 9800-9600 are opened for Nifty.

So, the Indian Stock SALE got cheaper as promised earlier, and it might even get more . . .  Long term investors are advised to accumulate quality stocks / MF / ETFs (Please Read - Wealth Creation with Stocks - Possible?) worth 25-30% of their investable corpus... so that remaining money can be pumped in when markets go down further.

Cheers  ! ! !

Market update - Stock SALE might get a bigger discount ! ! !

Hi All,

I am sure, by now, you all would have received Whats App messages regarding, Great Indian Stock clearing Sale with 20 to 30% off on Selected stocks. 

Let me tell you that, it might offer a bigger discount...

As a trader, it's all about game of probabilities, let us explore them briefly....

As mentioned yesterday, Nifty could not surpass 10600 levels and gave off entire gains of the opening trade.

After the status quo of RBI, Nifty showed marginal volatility, and went negative by 50 points, and settled the day near 10480...
After making a new high near 11180 levels, Nifty fell almost by 900 points to create a low @ 78.6% of the rise near 10276. After that from second half of yesterday and today, it rallied up to 10620 levels which is 38.2% of the recent 900 fall.

I personally feel, if Nifty fail to cross 10620-10750  levels (which is 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent fall), it is headed southwards to create a new low with targets near 10000-9800-9600. A strong move above 10900/11000 might negate this possibility, but I guess the probability is lower.

Supports on the lower side 10430-10390-10330-10270-10200-10000, resistances will be near 10530-10620-10730-10850-10900-11000-11200.

In a nutshell, the bias remains cautious with taste of bearishness for short term, with above levels in mind, one can take a trade with strict stop losses accordingly. However, One observation is, market breadth of 13:4 was in favour of bulls...

If I get a chance, will post a tradable scenario....

Cheers

Hrishi

Wealth creation with stocks... Possible???

Hi All,

This might be a question troubling all of us, all the time and especially today.... 

Let us try and find out the answer....

First of all, though profits can be made in short term with buy buying lower and selling higher, the WEALTH creation definitely happens buy buying and holding on to something for a real long term, like more than 5 to 10 years. 

So, if you want to be a 

Short term Trader - who books profits by buying lower and selling higher, please pull up yourself, as for these quick money techniques you need first of all have the inclination towards this and need to put in lot of efforts and devote some time, if not done it yet.... 

Long Term Investor - Who want to be invested in markets for years to reap its benefits with some simple investing rules.. 

So, What should I do as a successful Long term investor - -   

The answer for that can be really tricky, but to keep it as simple, please find below the information to the best of my knowledge...

People with existing investment portfolio - 

• Should of course continue to hold it. 
• As markets have gave up almost 10% from the peak of 11200, its a good time to accumulate quality stocks.
• If you are a seasoned investors for more than 5 to 10 years, then who am I to tell you... you all know it better... :)
• However, if you started investing in past 2-3 years, this might be the biggest fall you would have seen till date, and a loss of 2 to 20% of your investments portfolio is normal, depending on the quality stocks you hold.
• Markets have seen much bigger single day losses than today, and those who STAYED INVESTED then are ripping the benefits of patience.
• The fall may not be over, as markets may correct another 5 to 10% based on other analytical permutations and combinations, in order to withstand such kind of sell offs, you can  
• Select quality stocks rather than accumulating higher quantities of small priced shares
• Take an informed decision, if you cant take help of advisors, research analysts, broker, etc
• Diversify your investments across asset classes, i.e. stocks, debt (FD/RD/PF, etc.), gold (in electronic form by buying ETFs like Gold bees, etc which is almost up by 1%)
• Stock portion should be further diversified in to various sectors with large cap (less risky), mid cap (moderate risk) and small cap (higher risk) companies. 
• If your lesser capital does not allow you to diversify, buy ETFs (Exchange Traded Mutual funds) which track major indices, like NiftyBees (1/10 of Nifty value, will go up when Nifty goes up, and so on for indices specified), Junior Bees, M100, etc
• If your capital is really less, better to go with Mutual Funds investments.
• And last but not the least by all means . . .  Sip your investments... Rather than putting a lump sum amount once in a blue moon, be disciplined and invest an equal amount at regular intervals, usually a month for optimum benefits of rupee cost averaging (buying more shares when price is down and lesser shares when price is up, so that the cost of purchase is much lesser) and Power of Compounding.

People who want to start investing - 

• Please read this , if you have been scared by the news and social media today . . .
• It's better late than never.... Markets have experienced much more shocks, many times bigger than this, and still managed to give 15% + returns consistently.
• Start it now....
• Keep in mind the points mentioned above....

Hope this might help many of us to at least have a basic understanding of investing...

Cheers.....

Market update - Yeh Bull hai ke Maanta nahin.... ! ! !

Hi All...

Thanks to the global meltdown on account of interest rate spike in US and inflation concerns, global stock markets including Dalal Street saw a massive sell off...

However, after the initial panic in the morning, markets recovered more than half of the loss.

As discussed, after taking support exactly at the 78.6% retracement of 10276, Nifty traded cautiously for first half of the day and then rallied further to recover almost half of the opening losses.

Though it closed negative by 168 points, the daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, which is not the case in Sensex however. Also, drilling down on hourly charts, Nifty ended the intraday rally with a Shooting start like candle, hence 10470-450 levels become vary crucial supports for tomorrow.

Also, on daily charts after gaping down by almost 300 points, Nifty recovered and close the gap before closing the day, hence there is no gap down / bearish window on Daily charts...

Going forward....

Might be too early / risky to take a bullish stance immediately, and I would like to wait and watch for another bullish evidence on charts, however one thing is imminent that bull have to surpass and sustain 10600 for any upside and bears have to break 10270-250 for further downside.

As posted earlier, 10000 remains a key psychological support, below which Nifty can drift down till 9700-9650 levels.

In a nut shell,

• Short traders might have already booked profits when the trade was initiated near 10800 levels, and should ideally wait for a favourable risk reward opportunity,

• Long traders should ideally wait and watch for something more concrete to happen...

Cheers

 

Hrishi.....

DON'T Invest in equity markets ever . . . . IF ! ! !

Hi All,

IF you can't / dont want to / chose not to,  understand it, select any other asset classes which can match it....

One of the famous rules for investing by Warren Buffet is, Dont invest in something you dont understand.... So follow that rule for equities as well...

As expected, after an anticipated sell off in markets..... posts started floating for calling it an end of equities, busting of equity market bubble, so on and so forth.

This post is for all those who are calling it this way, please be aware ....

• In a single year of 2008, markets have fallen by whopping 61% (in that case, current fall is just 10%)
• #Sensex fell from 21000 to 8000 and Nifty fell from 6300 to 2250 in less than 10 months
• The same indices, are now trading at (in spite of the recent so called Bloodbath or Carnage) near 10400 (Nifty) and 33700 (Sensex)
• Which is an absolute return of around 60%
• Moreover, those who BELIEVED in and invested when the markets went lower by 60%, the absolute returns on an average are more than 100% in less than 9 years
• This translates in to a per annum growth rate of 18% (against < 10% in all orthodox asset classes like LIC, FDs, PPF, etc)

So simple advise to those who are creating this due to sheers lack of knowledge / awareness, please feel free to select any other asset which you understand and which can beat inflation consistently and avoid Equity markets....

And coming to traders... 

The informed ones are already short and booking profits now...

Cheers

Hrishikesh

Market update.. Leeeee Bazaaaar.... #Sensex saade 33 Hajaaar... ! ! !

Hi All,

starting with the regular update, as expected earlier, Nifty couldn't sustain the the latest rise of 1k points and gave away almost 1k odd points from the all time high near 11200.

Nifty has bounced back today from a 78.6% retracement of the entire rise from 10k to 11.2k levels, and on the lower side, 10250-10100-10000-9800-9600...

Though downside looks very hefty, the same is required for creating a strong base for the next upward rally.

Traders are advised not to take any trades on long side unless there is a convincing evidence on charts.... who are short as per the sell signal suggested below 10900-800, can trail stops or book profits...

Cheers

Hrishi

#Nifty Go Go Gone....!

Hi All,

As expected, after breaking crucial supports, Nifty continued the downward journey and touched the crucial supports near 10600.

On daily charts, Nifty has multiple upward gaps (support area) near 10513-10566-10588, hence the area of 10500-10600 might act as supports for markets.

People who have Nifty short can book part profits and trail stop losses. Nothing positive on charts as of now to go long...

Cheers

Hrishi