Hi All,
I was out of town in the first week of Feb, and due to some technical issue could not post the update on blog. However, on my What's App broadcast list, have suggested shorts near 10950-11000 and for which profits were booked above 10800, which was the trailing stop loss.
After falling consecutively for 9 odd days, Nifty finally witnessed a bounce from the support zone near 10530-10590. 18-20 Feb candles also show, though not exactly, but a lookalike pattern of Morning star.
Nifty charts are giving some contrarian view as follows...
As per DAILY charts, this bounce can continue till 10920 levels which is a 61.8% retracement of the previous fall from 11118 to 10585, and above that Nifty is expected to scale higher towards 11010-11120-11050. Though the current bounce looks like a short term up move, any material changes in the trend is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains 11150-11200 levels. (Refer the chart below)
However, as per WEEKLY charts, Nifty after forming a bearish Shooting star pattern (week ending 8th Feb), nifty created a hammer like bullish candle for the last week, however, the same can not be counted as it did not appear after a bear trend, however, it's a strong bullish candle and can not be forgotten either. Moreover, a complete bounce from 10k levels has halted near 11118 which is 61.8% retracement of the fall from 11.7k to 10k. (Refer the chart below)
In a nutshell, as a result of this contrary indications, traders are advised to trade with caution and with proper risk management. As it is markets are expected to remain choppy for few months, mainly on account of the general elections and trading with strict stop losses and trailing stops regularly is a must.
Cheers
Hrishi....