Pre and Post - Budget View ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected after breaching 7010mark, Nifty rallied by almost by half a percentage. Trades who bought Nifty near 7010 can book profits now near 7045-50 and play safe for the D-Day....

View on Budget –

Not here to share view based on Economic Facts, however would like to share the historical behaviour of markets Pre and Post Budget....

Usually a rally before Budget results in to a muted movement or a sharp decline in markets post the event, whereas, a fall pre budget results in to a Post Budget rally.

As we all know that there was a significant amount of decline in markets before the event, one can expect a small / sharp pull back post the Budget on Monday, however, the same may / may not be a trend changer and the time and price movements post 29^th will decide that, will keep you posted on the same.

Technically, as mentioned earlier,  6950-6850-6800 (below which 6600-6500 looks certain) remains crucial supports for bulls and 7095-7120 will be immediate resistances above which Nifty can rally towards 7200-7250-7340-7500.

Also, on daily charts, though markets did not create lower low than yesterday, Nifty’s today’s candle looks like a Hammer pattern, if closes near the current levels (above 7030-7050)

Cheers

Needs to cross . . . .

Hi All,

Nifty has taken support on 5 minutes Supertrend, and after sustaining above 7010, once can expect it to go further up near today’s early morning highs....

Needs to cross 7010.

Cheers

Play Safe....

Hi All,

Nifty took support near the informed level of 6950-60, and bounced back in opening trades, currently up by almost 80 points.

However, due to lack of an concrete evidence yet, the same cannot be called as reversal and the rise can be used as selling opportunity with strict stop losses.

On the higher side 7095-7125 will be the crucial levels to watch out for and the bears can again come back with force near these levels.

On the lower side 7000-6950 will act as good supports and below that the last ray of hopes for bulls will be 6850 levels.

The only good sign for markets is that on hourly charts Nifty has created the Last Engulf Pattern, which was very effective on daily charts in recent past and proved to be at least a short term reversal, however it being on the hourly charts will have truncated benefits for bulls.

Since it’s a professional gap up opening, yesterday’s low will act as a crucial support and risky traders can think of buying index with stop loss below it, preferably on declines.

Traders are expected to trade cautious, as the next trading session, i.e. Monday is the D-Day when the Union Budget will be announced.

Will update on levels after the first hour of trading....

Cheers

Wait and Watch . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

SGX Nifty is currently trading flat to negative and our markets are expected to witness the same kind of opening.

The bias for the market still remains cautious and levels to watch out for intraday will be...

Supports – 6980-6950-6800-6850

Resistances – 7050-7090-7125-7155

For any upside in intraday, Nifty should sustain above 7100 levels and should ideally not break 6960 levels.

As mentioned yesterday, the volatility will have to be keenly watch, as markets are expected to be choppy today, mainly in the second half due to the FNO expiry.

Cheers

What's Cooking . . .? ? ?

Hi All,

Without offering any conformation to bulls Nifty continues to slid and is currently near 7000 levels.

The reason for this update is, surprisingly in spite of a fall of almost 1.5%, the Volatility is still down as compared to yesterday’s levels, which is a very unusual observation. Otherwise usually Nifty and Volatility index have an inverse relationship, i.e. Nifty up – Volatility down and vice-a0versa.

This makes me wonder as to what is cooking for all of us ahead of the series expiry and key economic events next week.

Either a small bounce on the upside or a huge movements on either side can surely be expected based on this development.

Rather than jumping on conclusions and force ourselves to take trades, let us be patient and wait and watch....

Cheers

Markets in WEAK zone ahead of an important WEEK....

Hi All,

As mentioned yesterday, after breaching 7230 levels with disappointing volumes, Nifty could not sustain above the levels and collapsed badly to end the day @ 7109.55.

Yesterday’s fall could be attributed to a sharp rise in Volatility from the daily support area as mentioned earlier, and now going forward, 7050-6990 and finally 6950 will act as key supports.

On the higher side key resistances will be near 7100-7120-7155-7180-7260

Any meaningful upside is only possible above 7260 mark as mentioned yesterday.

Volatility is expected to be on the higher side on account of monthly expiry tomorrow and key economic events lined up next week.

The bias for Nifty going forward will be sideways and traders are advised to take trades on either direction only after proper confirmation on intraday charts.

Cheers

Harami with Ascending Triangle....

Hi All,

As expected, on Friday Nifty traded with a positive bias thanks to higher tops higher bottoms formation on Daily charts, however still it is advisable that it crosses and sustains above 7210-7230 levels.

On weekly charts, Nifty has created a Bullish Harami Pattern and crossing Friday’s high of ~7227 can translate in to a some further upside for Nifty, though the pattern is not as strong as some other classical Candlestick patterns, a bullish bias will surely be supported.

As mentioned in earlier posts, Nifty hourly chart is forming an ascending triangle and a good volume breakout above 7230 can take Nifty higher.

Levels to watch out for

Resistances – 7230-7275-7330-7400

Supports – 7160-7120-7100

To sum up, Nifty intraday bias will continue to be bullish unless Nifty is above 7100-7120 and short term bias too will be bullish till Nifty is above 6960.

As mentioned, we are nearing the expiry for the month and hence, the volatility (which is at a support on daily charts) can go up further, so traders are expected to trade with strict stop losses on either sides.

Cheers