Indecision . . . .

Hi All,

Nifty opened with a small gap up and then trading almost flat for first one hour of today’s trading

I think Nifty will have a strong support near 7500-7510 mark, below which a selling to further levels of 7470-7450-7420 can be expected.

On the higher side, Nifty has to cross 7610 levels to start any fresh up move....

The bias for markets till an either side breakout happens can be sideways.

Cheers . . .

Hrishi

Battle field . . . .

Hi All,

Though we are happy to book small profits on Nifty Longs initiated in the morning, Nifty failed to cross key levels of 7590-7610 as mentioned yesterday.

One thing is clear that bulls are not able to take charge of the markets completely, as at higher levels selling pressure is waiting to pull down the Nifty.

Even today the market breadth is not in favour of bulls, where Advance: Declines are 350: 1200, even like yesterday, the volumes are on sluggish side.

To sum it up, looks like Nifty is stuck due to lack of decision making and the levels to watch out for will be 7400-7420 on the lower side whereas, 7610-7640 on the higher side. A convincing move / close outside the range will decide the further plan of action.

Traders are advised to take trades with strict stop losses as the Implied Volatility is trading near 19%, and if it crosses 20 – 21 % mark, it can really cause a panic in market once more.

Cheers

Battle field

Play Safe . . . .! ! !

Hi All,

On a safer side, book profits in Nifty Long initiated at lower levels today...

  

Cheers

Bottom Fishing . . .

Hi Everyone,

As expected a Hammer on Daily charts also was not sufficient for Nifty due to alarming Advance Decline ratio yesterday.

Nifty gaps down by > 100 points today and currently trading around 7450.

Now the last hope for bulls are again near yesterday’s lows of 7420-7400, below which gates for 7100 will open, if there is no Concrete Confirmation on charts

In a nutshell, it is not yet an easy going for bulls as yesterday’s rally lacked conviction and support, again it’s better to wait for bottom fishing and continue with our negative bias...

Intraday view,

Aggressive traders can be on the long side of Nifty with SL below yesterday’s low.... (sorry for delayed update on blog, posted it @ 7470-80Nifty levels) 

Cheers

Yeh Dil Maange More . . . .

Hello Everyone,

Nifty finally ended the day with a gain of 52 points and clearly a battle won by the bulls.

In earlier posts I kept on mentioning that the bias will remain bearish till such time we have a CONCRETE CONFIRMATION on charts, with today’s pullback, though we can see a confirmation with a Hammer on daily charts, on a conservative basis, would like to wait for one more day due to the concerns of volumes and market breadth as explained in the earlier posts.

So, what can we expect?

First of all, any near term upside is possible only above 7610-7650 mark and that will be the zone to watch out for tomorrow onwards. After surpassing these levels Nifty may face resistance near gap down openings i.e. supply in the range of 7670-7730.... A close above 7730 levels can take Nifty to higher till 7830-7980....

I believe the first confirmation may come with a close above 7600-7610 levels on hourly charts where Nifty will face a Supertrend resistance....

On the lower side 7507-7420-7400 will continue to act as supports going forward.

In a nutshell, after today’s strong performance by bulls, one thing is certain that if the 7610-7640 levels are crossed with conviction, we can expect at least a bounce, one other good sign is that in this entire fall, the Nifty did not close below 7500 levels any time, which was the level we were discussing since long back. A close below the psychological mark of 7500 may trigger a downfall in Nifty again.

Cheers

Bulls are Back ? ? ?

Hi All,

As expected the Rickshaw Man Pattern worked and Nifty gave a huge movement on the upside after rightly taking support near the mentioned level of 7420....

Today’s pull back though very strong is not very convincing as the market breadth, i.e.the  Advance Declines ratio is very poor and somewhat depressing for bulls at 280:1300 roughly also, other than this even the volume as of now is also on the lower side and hence it is advisable that we wait for tomorrow for calling it a  “CONCRETE CONFIRMATION” as mentioned in earlier posts.

Other than these two factors a complete credit goes to bulls for their efforts to take Nifty out of the bush by almost 150+ points.

As per the levels mentioned earlier first target below 7540 was of 7420 and it seems to be achieved and Nifty has pulled back up, a sustained rally like this and a Hammer Pattern on the Daily charts (provided Nifty closes at the current levels) can suggest a pull back.

However, tomorrow’s confirmation is required to know whether the pullback is just a relief rally or a short term reversal.

Will update you all on today’s closing

Cheers

Panic continues . . .

Hi All,

In spite of week economics numbers markets opened positive by almost a percentage points on account of supporting global cues, however could not sustain and gave away ala its gains are now trading negative by around 0.5%

Nifty broke recent lows and slight bounced from 7450 mark, however as mentioned in the earlier posts, any rise now should ideally be used as shorting opportunity unless we get a concrete confirmation on charts.

On the lower side the next stop can be near 7420-7400 levels and below that the next support directly comes near 7100 levels.

On hourly charts, Nifty has created a Rickshaw Man Pattern which shows a lot of uncertainty and an either side huge movement can be expected.

India Vix chart looks very bullish, however its trading near a resistance of around 20 – 20.5% mark, a sell off on India Vix chart can sponsor a relief rally in the markets for a while, till then its better to be on the short side and use rise in price for selling opportunities, a close below 7500 will be seen as even worse for markets to go ahead…

Cheers

Panic Button . . .

Hi all,

SGX Nifty changed its course and fell more sharply, so Nifty opened gapped down by almost 80+ points and broke the 7500 levels marginally and did not respond to the Harami Pattern at all on daily charts.

On hourly charts Nifty has created a hammer pattern though the same may not be able to change but could give us some upside relief.

As mentioned earlier, a convincing move / a close below 7539-7500 will take Nifty to 7400-7100 levels, now it will be interesting to see if Hammer helps Nifty to come out of the panic or not.

However, it’s not advisable now to stay on Long side until concrete confirmation comes by bulls.

Cheers

Hrishi