#MarketUpdate - Unbearable Bears

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty saw a positive start and traded strongly for first half... However could not cross the resistance mentioned yesterday of 10300 and bears took control and pulled Nifty to negative territory after creating high of 10296

On the Provisional activity front, though FII are neg buyers with Rs 550 cr , importantly, DIIs turned out to be marginally negative with 65 cr.

Also, market breadth was also favouring bears with 1100 declines against 689 advances...

The short term bias continues to be gloomy if resistances are not crosses and mid term bias is negative too with 10650-10750 being the reversal..

So bottom line.... If Nifty fails to cross the hurdles, bears are ready to take the markets for a southward journey...  And being a CHAMELEON is the only advice for traders...

Trade safe... With strict stop loss and money management...

Cheers

Have a great weekend...

#MarketUpdate - Bulls > Bears, BUT . . . .

Hi All,

As per the observation (on FII and DII net flows) posted late evening yesterday, Nifty started trading day on a positive note by rising more than half a percentage, however gave off almost all gains and even traded negative for a while, but only to recover smartly and rising further by more than  100 points in the second half.

On daily charts, Nifty created a Hammer like pattern which is surely a great positive sign for bulls, moreover this candle appears near prior moving averages supports mentioned yesterday. In order to call this at least a short term trend reversal, nifty should surpass and sustain above 10270-10310 mark, upon which it can expected to rally upwards near 10450-10650 levels.

Everything was positive for Markets today, especially from the second half, except for an important fact... The Market breadth, i.e. the Advance Decline ratio was in favour of bears for almost the entire day, when markets were trading higher. At noon, the ratio was as bad as 1:1.5 in favour of bears, after the late afternoon surge, the AD ratio was still fairly on the bears side. Usually this coupled with some other observations can see negative bias for coming days.

We can expect Nifty to go up, face stiff resistances and then give away entire gains in days to come... However, tomorrow will be very crucial as we will also be getting a weekly close for markets, and a close above 10350 odd levels can then mean a Hammer on a weekly chart, and the same has to be interpreted later.

A near to short term bullish bias can only be if Nifty sustains above the resistances mentioned.

The bias for mid term continues to be bearish thanks to the Bearish Engulfing pattern of first week of February, with reversal above 10750

Cheers....

Leeeeeee Bazaaaaaaaar.... Sensex 33 Hajaaaaaaaaaar....! ! !

Interesting observation... The Provisional FII and FII figures show that DIIs were net buyers today where as FIIs were net sellers... This looks positive... As per y personal opinion... FIIs turn out to be smarter than FIIs...(Latest instance....Yesterday FII were net buyers and DIIs net seller and markets tanked by more than 100 points today, and many such instances...)

In connection with this data, and the fact that indices are trading near 200 daily and 40 weekly moving Averages.... It would be interesting to see the near term movement... The bias remain negative ... however we can witness a small pullback... However I still go with my original plan of action.... 

BE A CHAMELEON....

#MarketUpdate - Leeeee Bazaaaar... Happy Journey 10 Hazaaar ! ! !

Hi all,

After flirting with the support near 10330 yesterday, Nifty saw a small bounce till the mentioned resistance area near 10430.... However could not sustain the rise and gave off all the gains and fell more than 200 points from today's high...

In this bargain, Nifty has broken a key support zone, near the lower end of the basing (Consolidation) area of 10250-300 and closed below 10250 mark.

As mentioned earlier, sustaining below the support zone for tomorrow (means this not being a false break down, usually happens in indecisive markets) Nifty is free to fall and reach the next pit stop near 10070-10030-10000 levels.

On daily/weekly charts, following observations were seen -

• Nifty broke the sideways consolidation (10270-10650)
• It has also broken an upward trend line from the lows of December 2017
• Also broken the pennant like formation mentioned in earlier post (Read this) 
• Confirmed the hidden divergence after breaking 10270 (Read this) 
• Nifty also broke below a Head N Shoulder (HNS) like pattern on daily / weekly charts, which even suggests lower targets near 9300-9200
• Trading in proximity of 200 daily and 40 weekly moving averages (10120 & 10170)

All these observations are bearish in nature, other than the moving averages, which clearly shows that the bias for markets is bearish, if Nifty sustains below the support areas of 10250-10300 with immediate targets near 10100-10000 levels, and below that 9800-9600 and even 9300 (as per the HNS pattern) aggressively.

So in a nutshell, untill any further bullish confirmation... Happy Journey 10000....

Please find below the chart for better understanding ...

Cheers...

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour.. Sell the Fact !

Hi All,

Update @ 3.30 PM - 

After taking support near 10330 mark twice, Nifty managed to bounce back a bit, but as suggested, it could not sustain 10370 levels, hence did not see any upmove...

Any upmove tomorrow, only possible above 10370-10380 levels with next resistances as probable targets... 

Meanwhile, On the lower side 10330-10270 are crucial supports

Cheers


Update @ 12.16 PM - 

Nifty took support near the first level of 10337 and hourly chart shows a hammer pattern which is bullish. If Nifty surpasses and sustains above 10370, it can go up further till 10430-450 levels.....

Cheers