Update 10 AM 2nd Feb 2017
#Budget - No bad news is good news ! ! !
Nifty, took support near 8550-8540 mark and gave a thumping response to the Union Budget 2017, rising by almost 150 points from the support....
Going forward, resistances will be near 8740-8810-8900-8970-9000 and as a conservative trader I would like to go long only on dips as the markets are near the ceiling,,,
Cheers
Hrishi
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Update - 12.30 PM 31st Jan 2017
As expected, Nifty already tanked by half a percent after breaching short term reversal level of 8600 and now trades near 8560...
Next supports will be 8540-8500-8460-8420...
8400-8450 can be very crucial zone for bulls and the sentiments can again turn bullish for immediate term....
Cheers
Hrishi
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Hi All,
Welcome back all after almost a gap of 2 months. I was and still caught up in some new ventures, but couldn't resist myself from posting a view for Grand Event of Budget 2017.
Markets tanked more than 10% from the highs of 9000 odd levels till almost 7900 amidst huge volatility due to events like Surgical strike on Pakistan, Demonetization, US Elections, etc.
However, after everything was settled, Nifty quietly recovered from the lows and gained around 10% to reach highs of 8700 levels last week.
Budget 2017 -
Now, Budget, which is undoubtedly the most important yearly trigger for markets is round the corner, followed by various State elections which will also have a lot of impact on markets from political point of view.
What history says -
After a huge fall, and a recovery based on some good results and partial settling of many domestic and foreign concerns, it is expected that we should see an upmove post Budget....
HOWEVER, it is observed that most of the Budgets earlier have either seen a Pre or a Post Budget rally and then an opposite move of the same. What I mean is that Nifty has already seen a rally of around 10% from the lows of November, and it is expected (based on historical observations) to trade subdued post Budget.
I am not an Economic expert to predict what the FM will offer in the Budget, but I personally feel that markets after a huge volatility would settle somewhere near the current range.
Technical evidences . .
Daily charts have shown a visible weakness in the prices with consecutive selling pressure candles, with today's candle being almost similar to Shooting star / Gravestone Doji. also there are multiple resistances on daily chats near 8680-8740-8810-8900-8970-9000
On weekly and monthly charts also, Nifty is trading near a huge resistance area of 8610-8810, Supertrend too, will offer selling pressure near 8780 levels on closing basis
Crucial levels to watch out for -
For Short term - A sustainable move below 8600 can trigger a short term bearish reversal
For mid term - A move below 8300 levels in Nifty will mean bearish implications for even mid term
For Long term primary trend - The same will be bullish until the lows of 7890-50 are intact.
What to do?
I personally feel that the bias for markets is surely gonna be volatile and traders are expected to trade with strict stop losses for either side trades.
