Independence Day gone, but Flag hosting still on!!!!

Hi All,

Just an observation.....

Nifty on the daily chart had created a Bullish Flag pattern (A Contunuation pattern) which means it likely to go up after a small, healthy correction as I have already mentioned....

After Friday's fall, Nifty has taken support near Flag's upper trendline near 5550-5530

Flag targets can be 6230-6350+

I will strick to my views... Near term bias might turn down below 5900-5930 with targets near 5800-5740, but Short term bias will only change below 5790-40 and Mid term bias will change only below 5580-50...

Please see the chart below -

Cheers

Hrishi

Reading between the lines.... Rbi policy

Hi all....

Want India to grow?
Want Rupee to appreciate?
Want current account deficit?

One answer by Raghuram Rajan ....

Please copy the link below in a browser n read full report.... Even a layman can understand what's explained in pages 3 and above....

Really Impressed when he said RBI Will not be a puppet of Govt....

Does that means earlier it was a puppet?

Let it be.....

Understand the report answer and ACT accordingly.....

Don't expect overnight changes but his ideas nd vision sound good....

A nice article by Firstpost .....

m.firstpost.com/economy/phata-poster-nikla-zero-why-raghuram-rajan-hasnt-joinedparty--1122477.html?page=1

Lets see if they deliver.....

Thank you Firstpost ......

Cheers Hrishi...

More than half of the losses covered.... A real roller coaster ride....

Hi all,

As posted in the morning, this correction was a healthy correction...... Nifty bounced almost 100 points from the mentioned support area of 5900-5950..... (Low 5932)

Going forward, 5930-5900 should act as a major support whereas 6120 will be a major hurdle....

Bias still remains +ve and would change to negative for short term if 5930-5900 is broken with targets near 5740.....

I Just hope what observation I shared in the morning (Nifty and Sensex divergence) is not getting materialized..... but personally I feel 5740-5680 is an area to get panic for positional traders....

Cheers

Hrishi

Movie...Roller coaster ride...... Hero Ben B... Villain Raghuram R!!!!

Hi all,

RBI Mid quarter policy review :  Repo rate upped 25 bps, MSF rate reduced 75 bps

·         Repo rate increased 25 bps to 7.5% which was surprise to markets.

·         MSF rate reduced to 9.5% from 10.25%.

·         Minimum daily maintenance of CRR reduced from 99% of the requirement to 95%.

·         Focus on bringing inflation (esp retail inflation) to more tolerable levels.

More than half of yesterdays gains are wiped out as markets expected a cut in rates or at least a status quo....

The short term bias still remains +ve with /supports near 5950-5900-5840-5790-5740

I feel unless charts show anything else, every opportunity is a buying opportunity....

Remember.... Healthy corrections..... Make you walthy.......

Cheers

Hrishi

An observation...... Nifty & Sensex not hand in hand!!!

Hi All,


Nifty is yet to break its May 2013 high of 6230 whereas Sensex has already surpassed the same and is trading comfortably higher and even closed above it (Sensex high in May was 20443.62 and yesterdays close for it 20646.64)

As per the quarterly charts I feel September month close is very important if Sensex manages to close above the 20443-444 mark by 30 Sep 13, we might see both the bources moving in tandem and crossing their all time highs may be before December 2013...


But if this divergence is materialized, god forbid ... the hell might break lose.... but dont think so it can happen without giving any signal on charts...

RBI meeting is awaited today and it's advised to wait n watch


Cheers

Hrishi

FOMC Meet detailed note.....

US Federal Reserve Chairman surprised the world when he went against popular perception and announced that the Fed would continue its stimulus programme and keep bond purchases at the current level of $ 85 bn per month. The Fed's move is seen as a result of not so positive growth numbers despite accomodative policies and worrying levels of unemployment that has still not come within the comfort zone.

ALSO READ: FED says no tapering, but growth continues to worry

ALSO READ: Markets to cheer Fed's QE status quo

ALSO READ: Wall Street hits new highs as Fed keeps stimulus intact

Here are top 10 quotes of of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke

1) "Asset purchases are conditional on data, not on preset course" 

2) "Rise in mortgage rates, fiscal policy restrain growth" 

3) "Economic growth is moderate, downside risks to growth have eased"

4) "Awaiting more evidence that economic progress will be sustained"

5) "Meaningful progress made since asset purchases began"

6) "Unemployment above acceptable levels at 7.3%. See somewhat better conditions in Europe"

7) "If data confirms Fed's basic outlook, we will take the 1st step possibly later this year"

8) "Decision not to reduce stimulus was a precautionary step"

9) "See economic headwinds prevailing through 2015"

10) "Fed has strong institutional credibility - independent, nonpartisan."

Courtesy - Business standard

I hope you all got wealthier.....

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty is likely to open higher by 150-180 points near 6050-6080....

Immediate resistance will be near 6090-6100...

Book full Profit in Nifty futures long initiated @ 5850......


Nifty may face hurdle crossing 6100 easily...

Cheers

Hrishi....

Shayad....Is Raat ki subah ho gayi ...FOMC meet outcome..... US markets are at all time highs

Hi all.....

Ben B announced that there Will not be any slowdown in bond buying programme and Fed Will continue to buy bonds worth $85 bl per month.... Also the refinancing rates are kept.unchanged.....

As posted in evening expectation,the bond buying was expected to slow down by $10-15 bl.

He added that they Will wait till they get a comfortable reversal in growth, the Unemployment rate is under.control and And the labour market is stabilized....

Have to go through the entire announcement thoroughly but US markets are trading at all time highs..... And are trading positive by 1%+

Gold should open near 31200 where as Silver should open above 52200...

SGX is up by just 3 points which was negative by 30 points before announcement....

Though everything looks encouraging I feel that this upmove May not sustain for long, as no tapering means the growth in the biggest economy still not satisfactory.... But have to check the impact on Indian markets in detail ....

Will keep you all posted...

However.... Those who bought Nifty near 5850 with stop loss of 5795 should be able to get a profitable opening....

Nifty resistances near 5960-6000-6050

Supports 5840-5790-5770-5740

Lets wait n watch tomorrow .....

Good Night all......

A little walthier as compared to yesterday.....

Hi All,

As posted yesterday (http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=289801391276761356#editor/target=post;postID=9060871597805450789;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=1;src=postname)

Nifty rallied without breaking 5795 levels and has crossed 5880 levels comfortably.

It is now expected to move forward with a strong resistance near 5930-5960.....

The FOMC meet and the announcements therein hold the keys now for the market pulse going forwrd.....

I will stick to my view...

Lets wait and watch....

dont know tomorrows opening, but conservative traders can book profits even if it opens near todays close... Needless to say ,.... Provided it opens near it..... Lol

Levels are intact what I posted yesterday...

Cheers

Hrishi

Wait N Watch

Markets wait for FOMC......

Trade in a tight range of 100 pnts....

Will get a strong push above 5880..... whereas 5795-5740 being crucial areas on lowerside....

Indian stock markets have priced in a $10-$15 billion cut in US stimulus, but a larger cut may lead to a sharp fall in equities on concerns that foreign investors will take money out of the country. The rupee will also weaken.

However, Indian markets may rally if the Fed surprises everyone and decides against trimming its bond purchases at all.

The outcome of the Fed's meeting will also determine interest rates in India. The Reserve Bank of India earlier postponed its monetary policy review from 18th to 20th of September to see what the Fed does.

Lets wait n watch......

Regards

Hrishikesh

Healthy Corrections Make you Wealthy....

Hi all,

After a sharp run from 5100 to 5960..... Nifty is seems to be taking a much needed breather and I feel any correction till 57350-5680 can be treated as a healthy set back for Nifty in order to zoom later on....

However 5550-5500 can be the Stop Loss for the midium term positive view.... and 5680-5740 can be the reversal for short term positive bias....

Will keep updating my views frequently along with opportunities to trade....

We are expected to trade sideways as the same being happening for past 4-5 trading sessions.... Range being 5740-5780 on the lower side and 5780-5950 on the higher side.

Aggressive traders - Buy Nifty @ 5850 SL below 5790 TGTS 5940-6000-6045...  STRICT Stop Loss......

Cheers!!!

Hrishi

Sorry for the irregularity....

Sorry all...

For being very irregular in posting my views....

Will try to update my view atleast twice or thrice a week....

Regards

Hrishi