#MarketUpdate - Last ray of hope for BEARS...

Update - 0920 hours 15th March 2019.....

Bulls managed to take out the 78.6% retracement quite convincingly, a sustained close above that would take Nifty near the Life Time highs... Immediate hurdles for bulls - 11470-11530-11610

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - History repeats itself? 2014 Vs. 2019 Charts Analysis... !!!

Hi All,

Continuing further from my earlier post, Nifty did not give any sign of weakness (which was advised), and scaled higher, comfortably breaching the key levels near 11200. Now, as posted the next barrier for bulls would be near 11350, and today, Nifty created a high around that level. But interestingly it has created a Hanging Man Pattern, so sign of cautious for bulls.

No, as we all know, markets are awaiting the general elections and hence the volatility is expected to go up.

I just thought of putting the charts 1 year prior to the elections of 2014 and 2019. And the same are self explanatory

Nifty daily chart - PreElection time 2014 Vs 2019

As we can see, the movements might have been different over the first 5-6 months (i.e. from May-Oct), however, whats more important is that, the index traded almost the same way from November to March in 2013-14 and 2018-19, the pre election time for markets.

Please have a look at the chart below is for the entire 2014, after the election results and you know what do I mean....

Nifty post General election 2014, gains of around 60% from the lows of 2013 and 30% from the levels of March

By going by the basic tenant of Technical Analysis, The History repeats itself, and if the same turns out to be true, it is needless to say, what I expect from markets in this year, if we have a decisive mandate....

From the lows of 2013 near 5300 (previous year to the general election), Nifty rallied by almost 60% till December 2013.
P.S. 2018 low near 10k for Nifty. 

Even, from the 6500 levels of March 2014, Nifty rallied by almost 30%.
P.S. Nifty 2019 March levels 10300

Though the elections results don't dictate terms for the long term appreciation of the markets (as seen even at the times of coalition governments in 1990's) for the immediate movement, as mentioned, it all depends on history repeating itself, which means it would be necessary to get a decisive mandate in the General elections 2019.

Let's wait and watch the fun....

Cheers!!!