Wait & Watch . . . .

Hi Guys,

As expected, Nifty took resistance near the exact level of 7030-7040 (High of today was 7035.95) and retraced back sharply on account of a very high volatility in the markets

Now going forward, though not as strong as expected, but Nifty managed to gain back all the points lost  in the morning trades, and was able to give a Hammer Pattern on daily chart.

Now as suggested in earlier post, on Monday, Nifty should surpass the key resistance of 7030-7050....

Cheers

Why Fuel prices have not come down as much as the Crude . . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

Thought of sharing an interesting forward received on Whats App, makes sense, especially the inflation part....

Worth reading  -

Our Honourable PM Modiji has taken a conscious decision in not reducing the price of Petrol & Diesel significantly in tandem with the fall in crude price globally. Common man will be wondering how. But read the truth. " Modi Oil Policy" is one phenomenon viewed with awe by world over and admired by the intelligentsia. Despite the  fall in Crude prices from $108 to $27 per barrel in the international market during the last over 12 months, the Government did not reduce the price of Petrol and Diesel proportionately. Even some staunch supporters of Modi have expressed displeasure on this score. If Petrol is sold at Rs. 40-45 everyone will praise Modi, except a few insignificant bunch of Award Wapasees. Modi is well aware of this. This is the core difference between Modi and other politicians. Modi is keen on sound administration and not interested in earning mere flattery.
Now let us see why Modi is not reducing the price of Petrol and Diesel. First let us make a general view.

If the price of Petrol and Diesel is reduced the Government will earn applause but  there will not be any impact on the life of the common man. Will Bus, Taxi & Auto fare come down? Will freight charges reduce?. Will cost of food items in menu card come down? Will Air & Train fare come down? No. Vegetables, Grains, Clothes,medicines will continue to be available more or less at current rates only.

On the other hand if Petrol is available at Rs.40 the number of vehicles on road will just shoot up. This will fuel air pollution and curtail the use of public transportation which will be disastrous to our nation. But the main reason is not these factors.

It is a fact that India has benefited much by the fall in Crude prices during the last one year. Modi is aiming a GDP growth of 11.5% for India. That is to make India the biggest growing economy in the world. But statistics for the first half April to September 2015 shows that our growth is around 7.5% only that too despite curbing corruption and lavish spending. Tax collection was also much better. " Modi Oil Pricing Policy" is the outcome of the serious thought given to step up the growth of our nation. And this policy has earned laurels from the global leaders. Some of us become very vocal about countries like Pakistan selling Petrol at Rs.20-25.  But we conveniently forget about the extent of poverty there.

Let us see what is Modi Oil Pricing Policy. 

Oil prices have fallen by more than 70% from its all time peak. But Modi Government reduced Petrol and Diesel prices by 25-30% only.   The difference in profit 40% has been added to the exchequer by way of Excise Duty.  That is to say the Government has collected over Rs.1,50,000 crores on this count. To collect such huge amount of Indirect Tax in the normal course would have taken many years and huge effort. The master stroke is that agreements have been signed immediately for infrastructure development like building new roads, bridges, rail network etc by deploying this addition of Rs.1.5 lakh crores to the exchequer. This is going to generate over 50 lakh  employment opportunities. Cement and Steel industries are going to witness tremendous growth shortly. This will create job to more than One crore jobless people. The per capita income of India is bound to shoot up.  This is a great step towards Modi's aim of 11.5% GDP growth of India. If our growth reaches that level India will become the darling of Global Investors.  More and more projects will take shape. This will make India the most Prosperous nation in the world .

This is the reality. Had any one else been Indian  Prime Minister now, such a thoughtful and prudent decision is a far cry. That is Modi, a true visionary.

Sigh of Relief ? ? ? Close very important....

Hi All,

Exactly as expected Nifty opened with an upward gap of around 50 points and gave away all those gains in few minutes of opening. A further sell off in Nifty even achieved our second target for the fall near 6900.

However, as a ray of hope for bulls, hourly charts started to look a bit bullish after consecutive 3 bullish candles with a lot of buying pressure, also, if Nifty closes near the current levels of 7000+, on daily charts we will get a Hammer Pattern (A close near 7630 levels will give us a Dragonfly Doji Pattern, a even more stronger) which can be a bullish confirmation, but only and only above 7030-7040 levels (Markets can even come down again if the resistance works).

It may not be advisable to go short now and even it is better to cover any short positions as on daily charts though not yet confirmed, but there is a sigh of relief at least for now.

It would be too early to call it a short term bottom, but confirmation of the hammer on Monday, as said earlier can mean a lot for the bulls

In a nutshell, Nifty of surpasses 7030-7040 mark today and crosses today’s high on Monday, we can expect a small bounce to start off with.

Blood Bath . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, after breaking the key levels of 7100 Nifty drifted down drastically and was down by almost 250 points. However, as per my expectation it did not give any respect to 7100 levels.

Now going forward, Nifty will trade with a negative bias and any rise should be used as a shorting opportunity unless we see bullish formation on either intraday or daily charts.

Right now SGX Nifty is up by as much as 100 points and it is likely to open above 7050 levels. Now 7100-7120 will act as a level of resistance (which was a prior support) and a close above that can mean a lot for the bulls.

However, as said earlier, unless we see a bullish formation, the bias for the markets will continue to be negative and sell on rise strategy should be applied with strict stop losses as the IV is already trading higher, as expected near 26% mark and the same can even rise further on account of economic evens lined up at the end of the month.

Cheers...

Low Risk High Reward . . . .

Risky traders can take a long position at 7140 with Sl below 7100...... Low risk potential returns opportunity

The D Day . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

As expected, after breaking 7240 mark, Nifty tumbled sharply yesterday and created a low of 7177 odd levels. Though there was a small bounce of around a percentage point, Nifty could not sustain the same and finally sold off during the closing hours.

Since there is no sign of relief for the bulls as of now, either on hourly or daily charts, the bias for Nifty in for intraday and short term continues to be bearish.

7120-7100 is the ray of hope for bulls now.

Even 7100 PE saw a huge built up on the OI front (Derivatives Data), so one can expect a close above 7100 for this month expiry, however, in case of a convincing breach of 7100 levels, Nifty can slide further to 7000-6900 levels.

I personally feel Nifty should ideally hold on to 7100 levels and there can be a smart bounce at least once before breaking the level finally.

I will stick to my view that a weekly close (close of tomorrow i.e. 12th Feb 2016) below 7240 could mean further downside for Nifty till 7000-6800-6500..... Hence today and tomorrow are going to be very crucial for markets

Cheers

Hammered . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

Thanks to the IV, which was up by almost 6% in the early trades near 23% mark,  Markets even gave up the crucial level of 7240-7230...

Now going forward if, Nifty sustains below the psychological level of 7200 or a weekly close below 7240, as suggested earlier, we can expect it to come down till 7100-7120 levels and even below 7000 mark. The bias turns bearish for all the time frames until we get a bullish confirmation on charts.

As of now there is no hope for bulls unless there is some sign of relief on charts.

Cheers....

To be or not to be . . That is the Question....

Hi All,

As expected Nifty traded with a negative bias for yesterday. As Nifty did not go higher to cross any resistances it is expected to trade negative even today. The key level to watch out for will be 7240-7230....

SGX Nifty is already down by 65 points which suggest that Nifty may open near or even below 7240 mark, however before taking any short trades it is advisable that the markets break 7240-7200 mark convincingly.

However, if Nifty holds 7240 levels, we can see at least a small bounce till 7500-7530 levels.

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the IV moved up by as much as 7-8% yesterday and is currently trading at 21.75%, near a daily resistance of 22.10-22.15%, since it is trading near a resistance, it is the only ray of hope for bulls, as if IV cools down a bit markets usually tend to take it in a positive way, however the same can have a lagging effect.

Traders are once again advised to trade cautiously as the IV is likely to trade higher on account of key economic events lined up for the month.

In a nutshell, the for market bias for intraday, short term and even midterm will depend on 2 key factors i.e. 7240-7200 zone and the IV coming lower after taking resistance near daily supply areas of 22.10-22.15%. 

It is a "To be or not To Be" questions for bulls... fingers crossed.

Cheers

Bang On . . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As per our prediction, Nifty opened with huge gap down of more than 100 points and did not respect the support of 7350.

Now for any intraday bounce it should hold 7240-7260 levels....

Cheers

Bulls defeated . . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

Exactly as expected yesterday morning, Nifty scaled higher till 7510 mark, however could not give an hourly close above the same, hence, hammered badly and closed lower by more than 100points at 7387.25

Though, it is currently trading near a support of 7350 levels, the way it fell sharply yesterday, doesn’t look like Nifty will hold the same and expected to break that level, even the SGX Nifty (down by 60 points) and global markets (Nikkei down by 5%) are suggesting that.

Intraday bias for the day looks like negative unless there is any bullish confirmation on hourly / 15 minutes charts.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 7320-7300-7260-7235

Resistances – 7410-7460-7510

Traders are advised to be cautious, as the India Vix index (Volatility index) was up by > 11% yesterday and the same has bounced back from the support zone of 15.50 – 16.50% as posted earlier. Also on account of the key economic events lined up the volatility is expected to rise further.

Cheers

At a crucial juncture . . . ! ! ! !

Hi Everyone,

As expected Nifty scaled higher and it should likely go up, however as per the earlier posts, it is taking resistance near 7500-7510 mark and at least an hourly close above 7510 level is extremely crucial for Nifty going forward.

Intraday bias remains positive till the time Nifty is trading above 7440-7435 levels.

Levels to watch out for intraday

Supports – 7440-7395-7350

Resistances – 7510-7535-7580-7610        

Cheers