Hi all,
Everyone, connected to finance, right now would be thinking of a song,
Ye... Kya hua... Kaise hua... Kab hua....
Investors would singing, Kya hua, tera vaada... Ha ha ha...
Jokes apart... but, excuse me for the start, in case it did not go well with someone.. But after such a challenging time, thought to at least start the post, on a lighter note, as it is going to have some important / advance inputs to the best of my knowledge....
Let's get started and try to decode it for the upcoming time...
As posted earlier, thanks to the bearish pennant pattern, Nifty hit the target of 10k, honestly, in a very quick manner than I expected... Moreover, it also slipped by more than 5% below the targets and is currently trading near 9.5 k in India
Please also note, at the time of writing this, SGX is trading near 8.7k, down by more than 800 points from today's close...
Now... most important... What to expect going forward...
Looking at the monthly chart, one can notice 2 trend lines, 1st connecting lows of 2008 - 2013 (white), and other one connecting 2013 - 2016 bottoms (Yellow)
Please note that, both the trend lines are not confirmed ones and as they are long term, just a prediction that they might help bulls.
By looking at the SGX Nifty future, looks like 2nd yellow trend line would not hold.
However, the other white trend line coincides near a weekly support / demand zone of 9k to 9.2k, moreover, near the same mark, on daily and weekly chart, there is a small gap up opening (of March 2017) which also might act as support... We call it, Confluence of indicators... There is also a very small gap in Feb 2017 between 8783-8805.
Finally, based on my understanding of the Fibonacci retracements and the little knowledge I have about the Elliott Waves... Out of the larger move from 2252 (Oct 2008) to 12430 (January 2020), Nifty has already completed 23.6% correction of around 10k levels, and now the next pit stop would be near the next crucial mark of 38.2% around 8500 levels.
As per my understanding, for a healthy and sustainable upmove, the corrections usually halt near 38.2% (they can also be as deep as 50% or 61.8%, and 78.6% is the last resort, below which the entire up trend gets challenged, to an extent. But that may not be an option as such, as breaking 6357 will disturb the entire bullish wave count, and everything might go for toss then... even a time to worry for investors, may be)
Also, previous top of Mar 2015, and likely the support zone now, too, comes near the aforesaid range of 8900-9100, creating another confluence.
So, to sum it up...
I feel the area of 8450 on the lower side (a gap up of 13 points in Jan 2017) and 9100 on the higher side, should ideally offer a great amount of help for bulls going forward, and may make sense too, as after creating a low near 8570, SGX Nifty bounced back sharply to trade near 9k levels at the time of writing this post. Below that notable supports can only be near 7900-8000 and 7300 (being the 50% retracement marked above)
Most importantly, unlike all the steep falls in the past, including the 2008 crash, volumes are surprisingly decreasing for the current fall, making the case even more stronger for bulls...
So, let us see in the coming times, what's all in the offering for traders...
Cheers till then...
Hrishi
Everyone, connected to finance, right now would be thinking of a song,
Ye... Kya hua... Kaise hua... Kab hua....
Investors would singing, Kya hua, tera vaada... Ha ha ha...
Jokes apart... but, excuse me for the start, in case it did not go well with someone.. But after such a challenging time, thought to at least start the post, on a lighter note, as it is going to have some important / advance inputs to the best of my knowledge....
Let's get started and try to decode it for the upcoming time...
As posted earlier, thanks to the bearish pennant pattern, Nifty hit the target of 10k, honestly, in a very quick manner than I expected... Moreover, it also slipped by more than 5% below the targets and is currently trading near 9.5 k in India
Please also note, at the time of writing this, SGX is trading near 8.7k, down by more than 800 points from today's close...
Now... most important... What to expect going forward...
Looking at the monthly chart, one can notice 2 trend lines, 1st connecting lows of 2008 - 2013 (white), and other one connecting 2013 - 2016 bottoms (Yellow)
Please note that, both the trend lines are not confirmed ones and as they are long term, just a prediction that they might help bulls.
By looking at the SGX Nifty future, looks like 2nd yellow trend line would not hold.
However, the other white trend line coincides near a weekly support / demand zone of 9k to 9.2k, moreover, near the same mark, on daily and weekly chart, there is a small gap up opening (of March 2017) which also might act as support... We call it, Confluence of indicators... There is also a very small gap in Feb 2017 between 8783-8805.
Finally, based on my understanding of the Fibonacci retracements and the little knowledge I have about the Elliott Waves... Out of the larger move from 2252 (Oct 2008) to 12430 (January 2020), Nifty has already completed 23.6% correction of around 10k levels, and now the next pit stop would be near the next crucial mark of 38.2% around 8500 levels.
As per my understanding, for a healthy and sustainable upmove, the corrections usually halt near 38.2% (they can also be as deep as 50% or 61.8%, and 78.6% is the last resort, below which the entire up trend gets challenged, to an extent. But that may not be an option as such, as breaking 6357 will disturb the entire bullish wave count, and everything might go for toss then... even a time to worry for investors, may be)
Also, previous top of Mar 2015, and likely the support zone now, too, comes near the aforesaid range of 8900-9100, creating another confluence.
So, to sum it up...
I feel the area of 8450 on the lower side (a gap up of 13 points in Jan 2017) and 9100 on the higher side, should ideally offer a great amount of help for bulls going forward, and may make sense too, as after creating a low near 8570, SGX Nifty bounced back sharply to trade near 9k levels at the time of writing this post. Below that notable supports can only be near 7900-8000 and 7300 (being the 50% retracement marked above)
Most importantly, unlike all the steep falls in the past, including the 2008 crash, volumes are surprisingly decreasing for the current fall, making the case even more stronger for bulls...
So, let us see in the coming times, what's all in the offering for traders...
Cheers till then...
Hrishi
No comments:
Post a Comment