Update 15th July 2020 after closing...
Nifty, after opening with gap up, gave off all the gains after taking resistance near 10820-30 mark.
The existing short trade trailing stop loss is held and one can expect it to stick to the levels mentioned earlier...
Update 15th July 2020 9.50 AM...
After taking support near 10550 levels, Nifty gave a strong gap up opening and currently trades at 10730... The gap is a professional gap, and hence yesterday's low would act as strong support. Also, 10600 and 10500 Puts have added a lot of OI suggesting they would act as supports going forward.
On the higher side, 10760-70-10820-10860 are the key levels to watch for. Also 10800 Calls have the highest OI suggesting that level to act as immediate resistance.
For the existing overnight short trade trailing stops can be placed above the resistances mentioned above. Aggressive traders can think of sell on rise with stops above the recent high of 10900 or 11k levels based on own's risk appetite.
Intraday traders can look for short (after a bearish confirmation) with stops above 10770 / 10825...
Cheers...
Hrishi
Update 14th July 2020 after closing...
As expected, Nifty plummeted sharply by more than 2 % today, those who went short, as per the advice in the earlier update keep trailing stops . Nifty took support near the 2ns support area near 10550-10460, those would be the crucial levels to watch out for going forward...
Today's low near 10560 is
close to 50% retracement of the recent rise from 10194 to 10894
and index managed to close above the 23.6% retracement of the rise from 9544 to 10894..
Key levels to watch out for
10550 - 10470- 10430-10370-10220-10180....
Cheers!!!
Update 14th July 2020 at 11.10 AM
Leeeee Maaaaal Nifty.... 10630..... Near crucial supports 10600-10630, after that 10530....
Book part profits in the short initiated near 10850-30 levels and trail stop above the cost, 10870
Cheers
Hi All,
Hope you and your loved once are all fine and you find this post being with your family... :)
As expected, the expiry was near the levels of 10800 (10813), and markets were showing a lot of indecision since that, trading tightly in the range of 10650-70 to 10800-850.
However, today, it has surpassed that range and created a high near 10900 (10894) however, currently it trades near 10850-60 mark yet again.
Though over the past few weeks bulls have elaborated a lot of strength, I continue to feel that the upmove might get paused for a while and we might have some meaningful short term pull back.
Below are the reasons because of which I think so...
On daily charts -
Nifty, after opening with gap up, gave off all the gains after taking resistance near 10820-30 mark.
The existing short trade trailing stop loss is held and one can expect it to stick to the levels mentioned earlier...
Update 15th July 2020 9.50 AM...
After taking support near 10550 levels, Nifty gave a strong gap up opening and currently trades at 10730... The gap is a professional gap, and hence yesterday's low would act as strong support. Also, 10600 and 10500 Puts have added a lot of OI suggesting they would act as supports going forward.
On the higher side, 10760-70-10820-10860 are the key levels to watch for. Also 10800 Calls have the highest OI suggesting that level to act as immediate resistance.
For the existing overnight short trade trailing stops can be placed above the resistances mentioned above. Aggressive traders can think of sell on rise with stops above the recent high of 10900 or 11k levels based on own's risk appetite.
Intraday traders can look for short (after a bearish confirmation) with stops above 10770 / 10825...
Cheers...
Hrishi
Update 14th July 2020 after closing...
As expected, Nifty plummeted sharply by more than 2 % today, those who went short, as per the advice in the earlier update keep trailing stops . Nifty took support near the 2ns support area near 10550-10460, those would be the crucial levels to watch out for going forward...
Today's low near 10560 is
close to 50% retracement of the recent rise from 10194 to 10894
and index managed to close above the 23.6% retracement of the rise from 9544 to 10894..
Key levels to watch out for
10550 - 10470- 10430-10370-10220-10180....
Cheers!!!
Update 14th July 2020 at 11.10 AM
Leeeee Maaaaal Nifty.... 10630..... Near crucial supports 10600-10630, after that 10530....
Book part profits in the short initiated near 10850-30 levels and trail stop above the cost, 10870
Cheers
Hi All,
Hope you and your loved once are all fine and you find this post being with your family... :)
As expected, the expiry was near the levels of 10800 (10813), and markets were showing a lot of indecision since that, trading tightly in the range of 10650-70 to 10800-850.
However, today, it has surpassed that range and created a high near 10900 (10894) however, currently it trades near 10850-60 mark yet again.
Though over the past few weeks bulls have elaborated a lot of strength, I continue to feel that the upmove might get paused for a while and we might have some meaningful short term pull back.
Below are the reasons because of which I think so...
On daily charts -
- A Hanging Man - 7th July (somewhat bearish pattern after this extended rally)
- A bearish engulf pattern - 7th and 8th July
- Bearish Harami Cross - 9th and 10th July
- 200 DSMA near 10890-11000
- Lot of OI added for 11000 calls, which should act as a resistance
- A rising wedge like formation would have bearish implications after a close below 10760-40
On weekly charts -
- a bearish / rising wedge pattern can be seen of a higher degree wherein a close below 10630 (initially) and then 10500 / 10300 (these might change) would b mean a larger degree correction too
- Also, 66%, 70.7% and 78.6% marks for the entire fall from 12.4k to 7.5 are 10750, 11000 and 11380 respectively.
- Even a probable downward trendline (not confirmed) resistance might act as selling pressure near 10900 levels
- Basis weekly charts, 9850-9900 would be very crucial levels to support this rise a beginning of the new trend and not just a correction of the overall fall. Ideally, prices going above 11400 would confirm the rally started from 7500 is a new trend and not a correction of the previous fall... (Mid term traders to watch out for this)
So, summing it up, after the recent rally, there are more reasons to worry for bulls than bears. 10600-10650 levels on the lower side are crucial supports whereas 10900-11400 are crucial levels of resistances on top.
Plan of action For short term -
Aggressive traders can short right now or sell on rise with an initial stop loss above 11k levels
Conservatively, one can short below the recent support of 10670, or even after a close below 10670-10630, for the next expected target near 10310-10180 (10550 could offer some support initially)
Cheers
Hrishi...
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