Update - 10.30 AM 9th July 2020
As expected, Nifty couldn't sustain below 10700, and yet again gapped up today (inside gap) and trades near 10790.
In the bargain, Nifty has created an inside professional gap, which should act as strong supports
Also, 10700 added huge huge OI in the Puts, suggesting that expiry is unlikely to be below that.
Plan of Action (only for today) - as 10800 Calls have still seen OI addition, one can sell on rise or even near 10780-90, with stops above 10800 (aggressive) / 10850 (conservative), a safer bet though, would be to buy on dips with stops below 10630-690..
Cheers...
Hrishi
Hi all,
Hope this post finds you safe and healthy along with your loved ones... :)
As per the previous update, by looking at a lot of Call OI built up near 10800 strike, we took a short trade, but eventually the 10700 Puts added a significant OI and we saw a sharp bounce, where we booked a small profit.
Now, going forward, Nifty on daily charts, yesterday created a perfect Hanging man kind of a pattern and hence thought of writing this update as it can be crucial.
Though, Hanging man, as a candle is a bullish candle (A hammer appearing after an uptrend), after such an extended rally in the price, the sheer existence of bears yesterday raises concern. the best way to trade a hanging man, i feel is to ideally wait for a close either above or below the same. As yesterdays price action also looks like a Dragonfly Doji (Open and Close almost nearby), trading based on close (rather than just breaking the low / high) is advisable.
Nifty, after rallying towards 10950 today, gave off the major gains gradually and currently trades near 10710, however the intraday OI data shows that the 10700 calls have seen decreasing OI where as puts show somewhat same amount of OI built up, still suggesting good support near 10680-10700 (especially form the weekly expiry point of view)
Also, if Nifty manage to hold on to the upward gap support between 3rd and 6th July (10630-10690) on a closing basis, bulls have a chance to take the rally further.
10800 levels to be watched out on closing basis and above the 10800 hurdle next pit stop for bulls can directly be near the psychological mark of 11k, where the maximum OI if for calls, translating in to a strong resistance for the July expiry.
On the lower side, below 10630-600, 10520-10430-370 and 10300 (20 DSMa) would be the next areas of supports.
Intraday traders (for tomorrow or a buy today sell tomorrow trade now), can benefit from trading in this range with strict stops above and below the range ideally (also based on other charting techniques). so ideally at the current rate near 10710, it would be good to go long with a small stop below 10680 (closing)...
In a nutshell, a close above 10813-815 or below 10689-80 would decide the next course of action for the index, from tomorrow's expiry point of view, supports near 10650 and resistance near 10850, and we can expect the expiry within this range ideally.
As expected, Nifty couldn't sustain below 10700, and yet again gapped up today (inside gap) and trades near 10790.
In the bargain, Nifty has created an inside professional gap, which should act as strong supports
Also, 10700 added huge huge OI in the Puts, suggesting that expiry is unlikely to be below that.
Plan of Action (only for today) - as 10800 Calls have still seen OI addition, one can sell on rise or even near 10780-90, with stops above 10800 (aggressive) / 10850 (conservative), a safer bet though, would be to buy on dips with stops below 10630-690..
Cheers...
Hrishi
Hi all,
Hope this post finds you safe and healthy along with your loved ones... :)
As per the previous update, by looking at a lot of Call OI built up near 10800 strike, we took a short trade, but eventually the 10700 Puts added a significant OI and we saw a sharp bounce, where we booked a small profit.
Now, going forward, Nifty on daily charts, yesterday created a perfect Hanging man kind of a pattern and hence thought of writing this update as it can be crucial.
Though, Hanging man, as a candle is a bullish candle (A hammer appearing after an uptrend), after such an extended rally in the price, the sheer existence of bears yesterday raises concern. the best way to trade a hanging man, i feel is to ideally wait for a close either above or below the same. As yesterdays price action also looks like a Dragonfly Doji (Open and Close almost nearby), trading based on close (rather than just breaking the low / high) is advisable.
Nifty, after rallying towards 10950 today, gave off the major gains gradually and currently trades near 10710, however the intraday OI data shows that the 10700 calls have seen decreasing OI where as puts show somewhat same amount of OI built up, still suggesting good support near 10680-10700 (especially form the weekly expiry point of view)
Also, if Nifty manage to hold on to the upward gap support between 3rd and 6th July (10630-10690) on a closing basis, bulls have a chance to take the rally further.
10800 levels to be watched out on closing basis and above the 10800 hurdle next pit stop for bulls can directly be near the psychological mark of 11k, where the maximum OI if for calls, translating in to a strong resistance for the July expiry.
On the lower side, below 10630-600, 10520-10430-370 and 10300 (20 DSMa) would be the next areas of supports.
Intraday traders (for tomorrow or a buy today sell tomorrow trade now), can benefit from trading in this range with strict stops above and below the range ideally (also based on other charting techniques). so ideally at the current rate near 10710, it would be good to go long with a small stop below 10680 (closing)...
In a nutshell, a close above 10813-815 or below 10689-80 would decide the next course of action for the index, from tomorrow's expiry point of view, supports near 10650 and resistance near 10850, and we can expect the expiry within this range ideally.
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