Update - 17th July closing levels
Stop loss for the shorts triggered above 10900... Really, Bull hai ke maanta nahin.... Ha ha ha...
Update - 16th July closing levels
Nifty managed to hold on to the 10550 mark, and now that becomes a crucial support, the previous high near 10553 would be an important level to watch for, trail stops can be in tact above 10860 or may be the original level 11900...
Update - 16th July 10.20 AM
Thanks to the 15 min Hammer yesterday, Reliance is still managing to hold the supports near 1780-1800, currently trading at 1855. Resistances would be near 1870-1900-1930... Two consecutive Hammer like candles on hourly charts, suggest, it may rally if sustains above 1870-75 levels... 1840-45 immediate crucial support for intraday...
Thanks to Reliance, once again, Nifty managed to hold on to the 10550-570 mark, and has rallied a bit to trade now near 10680 levels. Resistances would be 10690-10720-10750-10800-10840-10900..
The Plan of action, is intact.. Sell on Rise, but with bearish evidences near the resistances mentioned....
On the Options front, 10700-10800 and 11000 Calls have the most addition to the Call OI whereas 10500 has a lot of Puts OI. So clearly indicating the trading range for today's expiry can be between 10450-70 to 10800, most likely the closing is going to be between 10500-10700...
Cheers
Hrishi...
Hi All,
Hope this update finds you safe with your family and loved ones...
Firstly, couldn't think of any better Subject line for today's post...
This is the song which Nifty would have sang for Reliance today.
So far, so good, even though Bank Nifty was not allowing Nifty cross highs, Reliance was the one responsible to keep it holding....
However, as per our famous and much popular now, Buy the Rumour... Sell the Fact analogy, Reliance, after the AGM today, gave off all the gains of last week or so and closed negative by almost 4%. After creating a life high near 1978, Reliance fell sharply by almost 9% towards 1800 odd levels.
After the What's app forward I shared around 2.30 PM today, when it was trading near 1930-40, it just tanked badly to give off all the gains, built upon the positive outcomes of the AGM. There was also a Bearish Shooting Star formation on its hourly charts which could have triggered the heavy sell off, and ofcourse, Buy the Rumour... proved yet again.. was a major reason for sure....
On daily charts, it has broken a trend line connecting the lows of 12th and 30th June, however holding on to the trend line from the all time lows of 23rd Mar and 12th June, the same might as support on closing basis, near 1770-1800...
However, it has a strong support zone near 1780-85 to 1800 levels, and 15 mins charts have created a Hammer pattern at the closing hours, hence 1770-1800 levels should be crucially watched out for... below which the short term trend would turn down for Reliance with reversals above today's high near 1980 (2k levels would also act as a psychological supply), lower targets can be 1750-65 / 1690...
Now, coming towards Nifty, as BankNifty lagging behind and underperforming for the entire rally from March till now, Reliance looks like the ray of hope and Nifty surely can not afford a short term down trend for Reliance, as Bank Nifty should lead and out perform the index, but dont know when to expect that... (can be discussed in a separate post)
But, today, as expected in the morning, it was (and would be) a sell on rise with stop above 10900 initially, and our trailing stop above 10860 is still intact, the fresh shorts, if created today, can be held with the stop loss.
Index is taking a support near 10550 mark, and the level acted promptly even today... Only good sign for Nifty today was that it did not go below yesterday's low of 10562, and that along with supports like 10550 - 10470 - 10430 - 10380 - 10220 - 10190 would be crucial...
Nifty should break the lows near 10560-50 to go to lower levels mentioned and 10190 - 10220 remains crucial for mid term trend reversal as well, and we can then expect 10k - 9.5k and 8.8 k levels (61.85 of the entire rise from the lows of 7500) can very well be expected.
So, all said done, short term trend would remain down with reversals above 10900 - 11000.... Below 10550, expected levels can be 10440-80, 10370 and 10200, below 10190, even the mid term trend might get bearish, but let's not speak about the same right now... Take a day at once for trading...
Short term traders, if already short can have the position with trail stop 9if partial profits booked as advised) or with actual stop above 10900, new positions as advisable with sell on rise with same reversals. Same plan of action of sell on rise, for day traders too
And as mentioned in earlier post (click here) 11400 remains crucial to decide the upcoming journey of Nifty for the rest of the year henceforth...
Cheers
Hrishi....
Stop loss for the shorts triggered above 10900... Really, Bull hai ke maanta nahin.... Ha ha ha...
Update - 16th July closing levels
Nifty managed to hold on to the 10550 mark, and now that becomes a crucial support, the previous high near 10553 would be an important level to watch for, trail stops can be in tact above 10860 or may be the original level 11900...
Update - 16th July 10.20 AM
Thanks to the 15 min Hammer yesterday, Reliance is still managing to hold the supports near 1780-1800, currently trading at 1855. Resistances would be near 1870-1900-1930... Two consecutive Hammer like candles on hourly charts, suggest, it may rally if sustains above 1870-75 levels... 1840-45 immediate crucial support for intraday...
Thanks to Reliance, once again, Nifty managed to hold on to the 10550-570 mark, and has rallied a bit to trade now near 10680 levels. Resistances would be 10690-10720-10750-10800-10840-10900..
The Plan of action, is intact.. Sell on Rise, but with bearish evidences near the resistances mentioned....
On the Options front, 10700-10800 and 11000 Calls have the most addition to the Call OI whereas 10500 has a lot of Puts OI. So clearly indicating the trading range for today's expiry can be between 10450-70 to 10800, most likely the closing is going to be between 10500-10700...
Cheers
Hrishi...
Hi All,
Hope this update finds you safe with your family and loved ones...
Firstly, couldn't think of any better Subject line for today's post...
This is the song which Nifty would have sang for Reliance today.
So far, so good, even though Bank Nifty was not allowing Nifty cross highs, Reliance was the one responsible to keep it holding....
However, as per our famous and much popular now, Buy the Rumour... Sell the Fact analogy, Reliance, after the AGM today, gave off all the gains of last week or so and closed negative by almost 4%. After creating a life high near 1978, Reliance fell sharply by almost 9% towards 1800 odd levels.
After the What's app forward I shared around 2.30 PM today, when it was trading near 1930-40, it just tanked badly to give off all the gains, built upon the positive outcomes of the AGM. There was also a Bearish Shooting Star formation on its hourly charts which could have triggered the heavy sell off, and ofcourse, Buy the Rumour... proved yet again.. was a major reason for sure....
On daily charts, it has broken a trend line connecting the lows of 12th and 30th June, however holding on to the trend line from the all time lows of 23rd Mar and 12th June, the same might as support on closing basis, near 1770-1800...
However, it has a strong support zone near 1780-85 to 1800 levels, and 15 mins charts have created a Hammer pattern at the closing hours, hence 1770-1800 levels should be crucially watched out for... below which the short term trend would turn down for Reliance with reversals above today's high near 1980 (2k levels would also act as a psychological supply), lower targets can be 1750-65 / 1690...
Now, coming towards Nifty, as BankNifty lagging behind and underperforming for the entire rally from March till now, Reliance looks like the ray of hope and Nifty surely can not afford a short term down trend for Reliance, as Bank Nifty should lead and out perform the index, but dont know when to expect that... (can be discussed in a separate post)
But, today, as expected in the morning, it was (and would be) a sell on rise with stop above 10900 initially, and our trailing stop above 10860 is still intact, the fresh shorts, if created today, can be held with the stop loss.
Index is taking a support near 10550 mark, and the level acted promptly even today... Only good sign for Nifty today was that it did not go below yesterday's low of 10562, and that along with supports like 10550 - 10470 - 10430 - 10380 - 10220 - 10190 would be crucial...
Nifty should break the lows near 10560-50 to go to lower levels mentioned and 10190 - 10220 remains crucial for mid term trend reversal as well, and we can then expect 10k - 9.5k and 8.8 k levels (61.85 of the entire rise from the lows of 7500) can very well be expected.
So, all said done, short term trend would remain down with reversals above 10900 - 11000.... Below 10550, expected levels can be 10440-80, 10370 and 10200, below 10190, even the mid term trend might get bearish, but let's not speak about the same right now... Take a day at once for trading...
Short term traders, if already short can have the position with trail stop 9if partial profits booked as advised) or with actual stop above 10900, new positions as advisable with sell on rise with same reversals. Same plan of action of sell on rise, for day traders too
And as mentioned in earlier post (click here) 11400 remains crucial to decide the upcoming journey of Nifty for the rest of the year henceforth...
Cheers
Hrishi....
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