#MarketUpdate - Nifty . . . On a Mark . . . Get Set Go ?

Hi All,

Hope you all are doing fine.

Nifty after the dream run for almost few months now, has topped near 11800 and corrected fairly to near 11k levels today.

There are some bullish observations which suggest that the correction might be over

1. Nifty completed around 23.6% retracement of the recent rally from 8850 to 11800, if not sustained here the next critical support can be near 10650 (38.2% retracement) - 11880 (next swing low of August)

2. Nifty, though has broken the lows of 14th August, still managed to close above it for yesterday and today too.

3. Most importantly on hourly charts today, Nifty has given a Bullish separating Lines pattern, which is a very reversal signal, the same kind of pattern was seen before on 9th Sept, after which Nifty rallied from the lows of 11200 to 11600

4. Also, on hourly charts, Nifty has given a bullish RSI Divergence too, which will be confirmed above the recent high of 11250-70

 So, a crucial support, is likely to be found near 11k whereas on the higher side, 11260-70 is a crucial resistance to watch, above which we can expect Nifty to travel till 11330-11390-11540-11620-11800.

On the lower side, supports would be 11000-11030, below that 10970-10870 would be crucial.

Plan of action -

Though the overall trend seems to be down, with lower top lower bottom, since the price are trading near crucial supports, aggressive traders can take bullish positions (if tomorrows opening is near to the today's close) with stop loss below 11000-10970.

On a safer side, one can go long only if prices go above 11270

The targets to expect would be the resistances mentioned above. Do trade with proper risk management and take trades with a favorable Risk : Reward.

Will update you all on the What App broadcast as and when required...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Twinkle Twinkle....Tri Star ! ! !

Update 20th August 9.30 AM

As expected earlier, Nifty took support exactly near 20 DEMA around 11106-110, and bounced back sharply.

Though it had gone higher than the 78.6% retracement mark for a couple of days, looks like it took resistance near the mentioned zones of 11433-11550. Today's gap down opening can be really worrisome for the bulls and in order to continue the trend, Bulls should close this gap (11330-11395) asap.

20 DEMA now stands at 11186-90 and would continue to act as supply. Before that as per hourly charts 11290-11240 would be strong support zones for Nifty.

The plan of action continues to be sell on rise with small profit bookings and trail stops for better outcome...

Cheers

Hrishi...

Update 14th August 2.20 PM

Short triggered below 11230-11200, key levels now would be 11120-11050-11000-11870

Trend line broken below 11200-11210, important levels now on closing basis 

20 DEMA 11100-11106, would be important on closing basis. Price should sustain below these levels on closing basis for a couple of days in order to go further down..

Cheers...

Hrishi...

 

 Hi All,

Hope all is well at your end and you and your loved ones are safe and healthy where ever you are.... 😀

As mentioned in the earlier posts, and on the Whats app broadcasts, Nifty has a resistance near 11377-80, which is a 78.6% retracement of  the entire fall from 12.4k to 7.5k

Following are my observations for the same - 

1. Daily charts, there are gap down resistances for Nifty in the area of  11390-435 to 11540-550. (marked in red)

2. Moreover, as of yesterday, Nifty has created a Tri Star Pattern (Please click here to read on Investopedia), which is a bearish indication (candles 1, 2 and 3). Though the 3rd candle was not exactly a Doji, it was still an indecisive candle.

3. Bollinger Bands on the daily charts are converging, suggesting a lower volatility or sideways action (Time correction)

4. The momentum oscillator, RSI is showing a Negative divergence (Blue lines)

5. However, Nifty, is continuously respecting the 20 DEMA mark which is near 11100... (Yellow line)

6. Nifty is also respecting an upward trend line (White line joining Mar and May 2020 lows) 

So, to sum it up, Nifty continues to rise, in spite of unfavorable circumstances, which might be a way to price in the future good news (Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, you see... 😅😜 )However, is has currently halted near the crucial levels of 11400, and which should be watched very carefully from all the Big Bulls. 

On the lower side, 11230 - 11200 would be very important gap support (marked in green area), and bears can think of entering shorts only below those levels.

However, important to note point numbers 5 and 6, and its advisable to take trades accordingly with strict stop losses and targets.

As per the current chart set up, prices closing above the recent high near 11373.60, would indicate yet another continuation of the current up trend and higher levels can be 11450-11550-11660-11800...

Cheers

Hrishikesh 👍