Update 25th June 2020 6.45 PM
Hi All,
Nifty found it difficult to stay above 10360 levels and hence we could not see any intraday pull back, as mentioned below.
Nifty closed the day below 10300 mark and on daily chart it gives a green candle. It took support near the earlier gap up opening mentioned near 10270, and closed above the same.
However, on weekly chart, the candle is strong bearish candle, but as it is in complete tomorrow's closing below 10300 would be preferred by bears.
Since the Rising window (gap up open) should be closed on a closing basis, after the first leg of fall, I believe a only a convincing close below 10270-250 would take prices further down.
Till such time, respecting the Bearish engulf pattern, sell on rise is advisable with reversal above the recent swing high of 10550-60
Tomorrows closing would be crucial for Nifty going forward, let's wait and Watch
Hi All,
Hope this update finds you safe with your loved ones.
After the previous update, post surpassing 10k mark Nifty rallied nicely by almost 5 % and reached the levels of around 10550 yesterday.
However, the same is near the 61.8% retracement of the entire fall as spoken in various earlier update, and hence Nifty witnessed a steep fall of around 250 from the same levels and closed near 10300 mark.
Now, there are a handful of bearish evidences on the charts (Important observations marked in Bold, please pay attention from learning point of view
1. Nifty was resisted convincingly near 10550, the 61.8% retracement of the entire fall from 12430 to 7511, a key reversal
2. On daily charts, Nifty has formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, which is also a convincing bearish formation.
3. The rise from the lows of 7500, has taken a shape of a Rising wedge, which can potentially turn bearish if prices break below the lower trend line near 9700-9800, this can then even translate in to an ending diagonal, which, if broken can even mean serious damage going forward.
4. The weekly chart, though not yet over for the current week, is getting a shape of a negative candle and close tomorrow, anywhere below 10300 and near 10200 would make it a meaningful bearish evidence.
5. Daily Bollinger Bands to started contracting suggesting a pause / change in main up trend so far, and prices might revert back to the 20 DSMA which is again near 10050.
6. Even as per monthly expiry 10500 Calls shows a huge addition in OI, which means that level is difficult to be crossed.
From the Bullish side -
1. On hourly charts, Nifty has rested on the lower Bollinger band for the first time since the fall of 12th June, and one can expect it to come back till the 20 DSMA average near 10400.
2. Today's first hourly candle is a strong bullish candle supporting the mean reversion. If it crosses 10360 we can expect a pullback till 10390-10440
3. 10200 Puts show a spike in the OI, suggesting that might act as a good support.
So in a nutshell, simplifying the talks so far -
Intraday traders might expect Nifty to go up till may be 10400-10450 levels in a day or two with supports near 10300-10190,
But the overall Short term bias remains negative with a stop loss above 10560 and target near 10200 and 10000. Plan of action, would be sell on rise with sufficient bearish evidences, near 10400-10450 with a stop loss above 10560
The mid term bias, though is still positive with a weekly bottom near 9500, the same might change possibly below 10k levels, will take a look at it later.
Cheers
Hrishi
Hi All,
Nifty found it difficult to stay above 10360 levels and hence we could not see any intraday pull back, as mentioned below.
Nifty closed the day below 10300 mark and on daily chart it gives a green candle. It took support near the earlier gap up opening mentioned near 10270, and closed above the same.
However, on weekly chart, the candle is strong bearish candle, but as it is in complete tomorrow's closing below 10300 would be preferred by bears.
Since the Rising window (gap up open) should be closed on a closing basis, after the first leg of fall, I believe a only a convincing close below 10270-250 would take prices further down.
Till such time, respecting the Bearish engulf pattern, sell on rise is advisable with reversal above the recent swing high of 10550-60
Tomorrows closing would be crucial for Nifty going forward, let's wait and Watch
Hi All,
Hope this update finds you safe with your loved ones.
After the previous update, post surpassing 10k mark Nifty rallied nicely by almost 5 % and reached the levels of around 10550 yesterday.
However, the same is near the 61.8% retracement of the entire fall as spoken in various earlier update, and hence Nifty witnessed a steep fall of around 250 from the same levels and closed near 10300 mark.
Now, there are a handful of bearish evidences on the charts (Important observations marked in Bold, please pay attention from learning point of view
1. Nifty was resisted convincingly near 10550, the 61.8% retracement of the entire fall from 12430 to 7511, a key reversal
2. On daily charts, Nifty has formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, which is also a convincing bearish formation.
3. The rise from the lows of 7500, has taken a shape of a Rising wedge, which can potentially turn bearish if prices break below the lower trend line near 9700-9800, this can then even translate in to an ending diagonal, which, if broken can even mean serious damage going forward.
4. The weekly chart, though not yet over for the current week, is getting a shape of a negative candle and close tomorrow, anywhere below 10300 and near 10200 would make it a meaningful bearish evidence.
5. Daily Bollinger Bands to started contracting suggesting a pause / change in main up trend so far, and prices might revert back to the 20 DSMA which is again near 10050.
6. Even as per monthly expiry 10500 Calls shows a huge addition in OI, which means that level is difficult to be crossed.
From the Bullish side -
1. On hourly charts, Nifty has rested on the lower Bollinger band for the first time since the fall of 12th June, and one can expect it to come back till the 20 DSMA average near 10400.
2. Today's first hourly candle is a strong bullish candle supporting the mean reversion. If it crosses 10360 we can expect a pullback till 10390-10440
3. 10200 Puts show a spike in the OI, suggesting that might act as a good support.
So in a nutshell, simplifying the talks so far -
Intraday traders might expect Nifty to go up till may be 10400-10450 levels in a day or two with supports near 10300-10190,
But the overall Short term bias remains negative with a stop loss above 10560 and target near 10200 and 10000. Plan of action, would be sell on rise with sufficient bearish evidences, near 10400-10450 with a stop loss above 10560
The mid term bias, though is still positive with a weekly bottom near 9500, the same might change possibly below 10k levels, will take a look at it later.
Cheers
Hrishi
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