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*Market/stock specific views are my personal views and not a recommendation/advice in any way. The broadcast is created strictly with an intention of  knowledge sharing and empowerment*

#MarketUpdate - Nifty . . . On a Mark . . . Get Set Go ?

Hi All,

Hope you all are doing fine.

Nifty after the dream run for almost few months now, has topped near 11800 and corrected fairly to near 11k levels today.

There are some bullish observations which suggest that the correction might be over

1. Nifty completed around 23.6% retracement of the recent rally from 8850 to 11800, if not sustained here the next critical support can be near 10650 (38.2% retracement) - 11880 (next swing low of August)

2. Nifty, though has broken the lows of 14th August, still managed to close above it for yesterday and today too.

3. Most importantly on hourly charts today, Nifty has given a Bullish separating Lines pattern, which is a very reversal signal, the same kind of pattern was seen before on 9th Sept, after which Nifty rallied from the lows of 11200 to 11600

4. Also, on hourly charts, Nifty has given a bullish RSI Divergence too, which will be confirmed above the recent high of 11250-70

 So, a crucial support, is likely to be found near 11k whereas on the higher side, 11260-70 is a crucial resistance to watch, above which we can expect Nifty to travel till 11330-11390-11540-11620-11800.

On the lower side, supports would be 11000-11030, below that 10970-10870 would be crucial.

Plan of action -

Though the overall trend seems to be down, with lower top lower bottom, since the price are trading near crucial supports, aggressive traders can take bullish positions (if tomorrows opening is near to the today's close) with stop loss below 11000-10970.

On a safer side, one can go long only if prices go above 11270

The targets to expect would be the resistances mentioned above. Do trade with proper risk management and take trades with a favorable Risk : Reward.

Will update you all on the What App broadcast as and when required...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Twinkle Twinkle....Tri Star ! ! !

Update 20th August 9.30 AM

As expected earlier, Nifty took support exactly near 20 DEMA around 11106-110, and bounced back sharply.

Though it had gone higher than the 78.6% retracement mark for a couple of days, looks like it took resistance near the mentioned zones of 11433-11550. Today's gap down opening can be really worrisome for the bulls and in order to continue the trend, Bulls should close this gap (11330-11395) asap.

20 DEMA now stands at 11186-90 and would continue to act as supply. Before that as per hourly charts 11290-11240 would be strong support zones for Nifty.

The plan of action continues to be sell on rise with small profit bookings and trail stops for better outcome...

Cheers

Hrishi...

Update 14th August 2.20 PM

Short triggered below 11230-11200, key levels now would be 11120-11050-11000-11870

Trend line broken below 11200-11210, important levels now on closing basis 

20 DEMA 11100-11106, would be important on closing basis. Price should sustain below these levels on closing basis for a couple of days in order to go further down..

Cheers...

Hrishi...

 

 Hi All,

Hope all is well at your end and you and your loved ones are safe and healthy where ever you are.... 😀

As mentioned in the earlier posts, and on the Whats app broadcasts, Nifty has a resistance near 11377-80, which is a 78.6% retracement of  the entire fall from 12.4k to 7.5k

Following are my observations for the same - 

1. Daily charts, there are gap down resistances for Nifty in the area of  11390-435 to 11540-550. (marked in red)

2. Moreover, as of yesterday, Nifty has created a Tri Star Pattern (Please click here to read on Investopedia), which is a bearish indication (candles 1, 2 and 3). Though the 3rd candle was not exactly a Doji, it was still an indecisive candle.

3. Bollinger Bands on the daily charts are converging, suggesting a lower volatility or sideways action (Time correction)

4. The momentum oscillator, RSI is showing a Negative divergence (Blue lines)

5. However, Nifty, is continuously respecting the 20 DEMA mark which is near 11100... (Yellow line)

6. Nifty is also respecting an upward trend line (White line joining Mar and May 2020 lows) 

So, to sum it up, Nifty continues to rise, in spite of unfavorable circumstances, which might be a way to price in the future good news (Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, you see... 😅😜 )However, is has currently halted near the crucial levels of 11400, and which should be watched very carefully from all the Big Bulls. 

On the lower side, 11230 - 11200 would be very important gap support (marked in green area), and bears can think of entering shorts only below those levels.

However, important to note point numbers 5 and 6, and its advisable to take trades accordingly with strict stop losses and targets.

As per the current chart set up, prices closing above the recent high near 11373.60, would indicate yet another continuation of the current up trend and higher levels can be 11450-11550-11660-11800...

Cheers

Hrishikesh 👍  

#MarketUpdate - Tere Bina bhi Kya Jeena . . . Lol ! ! !

Update - 17th July closing levels

Stop loss for the shorts triggered above 10900... Really, Bull hai ke maanta nahin.... Ha ha ha...

#MarketUpdate - Yeh Bull Hai ke maanta nahin.... BUT . . . ! ! !

Update 15th July 2020 after closing...

Nifty, after opening with gap up, gave off all the gains after taking resistance near 10820-30 mark.

The existing short trade trailing stop loss is held and one can expect it to stick to the levels mentioned earlier...

Update 15th July 2020 9.50 AM...

After taking support near 10550 levels, Nifty gave a strong gap up opening and currently trades at 10730... The gap is a professional gap, and hence yesterday's low would act as strong support. Also, 10600 and 10500 Puts have added a lot of OI suggesting they would act as supports going forward.

On the higher side, 10760-70-10820-10860 are the key levels to watch for. Also 10800 Calls have the highest OI suggesting that level to act as immediate resistance.

For the existing overnight short trade trailing stops can be placed above the resistances mentioned above. Aggressive traders can think of sell on rise with stops above the recent high of 10900 or 11k levels based on own's risk appetite.

Intraday traders can look for short (after a bearish confirmation) with stops above 10770 / 10825...

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - (Updated) Tug of war . . . What to expect for the expiry tomorrow..?

Update - 10.30 AM 9th July 2020

As expected, Nifty couldn't sustain below 10700, and yet again gapped up today (inside gap) and trades near 10790.

In the bargain, Nifty has created an inside professional gap, which should act as strong supports

Also, 10700 added huge huge OI in the Puts, suggesting that expiry is unlikely to be below that.

Plan of Action (only for today) - as 10800 Calls have still seen OI addition, one can sell on rise or even near 10780-90, with stops above 10800 (aggressive) / 10850 (conservative), a safer bet though, would be to buy on dips with stops below 10630-690..

Cheers...

Hrishi

#StockUpdate - (Updated) SBI Cards IPO - What to do now?

Update - 17th July 9.40 AM

Took support near 685 and rallied up. Now at 732... 

Entered the crucial, fresh resistance zone of 730 - 770.... One might see some selling pressure.... Ba cautious...

Cheers

Hrishi 

#MarketUpdate - What to expect in Markets ?

Update 7th July 11.50 AM

As advised those who are short below 10750 or higher levels... can think of booking part profits and trailing stops near cost... As per the OI data, looks likes 10700 might as a good support however some addition in 10700 calls suggest the level might break as well, so be on a safer side, book part and let's ride the downhole if it takes place... Cheers 👍🏼

,..............................

Hi All,

Hope you all are doing good...

Nifty Update... CMP 10765

Index surpassed the 66% retracement of the overall  fall from.12.4k to 7.5k of 10560 and a sustained move or 

consecutive close above this would mean the gates for 11k (70.7%) and 11400 (78.6%)

However  the recent data shows that 10800 CE have added a lot of OI which mean that can act as a resistance...

Also, hourly the contracting  Bollinger Bands suggest a possible sideways to bearish move for an immediate near term.

The daily bands are still in the expanded mode suggesting the short term trend still looks bullish, however the hourly readings and a Bearish Harami like Candle suggests a near term sideways to down ward price action... with supports near 10690 10630 (20HSMA) and finally 10540 30....

The short term trend would continue to remain up i guess if the prices sustain above 10530 - 10560 levels for the index... So that acts as a reversal..

However below 10750 40, we can expect the lower supports mentioned above to be visited..

Aggressive short trades should have a stop above 10800 which needs to be flexible as the OI levels will keep on shifting, have a watchful eye on charts and the OI data.

Existing longs should hold with the stop losses below the supports mentioned as per their trading timeframes. Not advisable to initiate fresh longs can be thought of buying on dips or buy once index sustains above 10800

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bearish gettogether . . . (Updated) Intra / Short Term and Mid term View update...

Update 25th June 2020 6.45 PM

Hi All,

Nifty found it difficult to stay above 10360 levels and hence we could not see any intraday pull back, as mentioned below.

Nifty closed the day below 10300 mark and on daily chart it gives a green candle. It took support near the earlier gap up opening mentioned near 10270, and closed above the same.

However, on weekly chart, the candle is strong bearish candle, but as it is in complete tomorrow's closing below 10300 would be preferred by bears.

Since the Rising window (gap up open) should be closed on a closing basis, after the first leg of fall, I believe a only a convincing close below 10270-250 would take prices further down.

Till such time, respecting the Bearish engulf pattern, sell on rise is advisable with reversal above the recent swing high of 10550-60

Tomorrows closing would be crucial for Nifty going forward, let's wait and Watch

#MarketUpdate - Gapped down . . . (Updated)

Update 12th June 2020 3:20 PM

.....and the Gap closed.....

What a rally that was for intraday...

Hope everyone took a part in this upmove...

Nifty near the resistance near 10k, also showing some weakness on hourly charts, the 30 mins candle look almost like Gravestone Doji (bearish) though a green candle, red would have been preferred, also at a falling trendline resistance, potential for shorting...

But as advised, let's not take a overnight trade for this weekend....

Cheers

Happy Weekend...

#MarketUpdate - Belt Hold. . . What's next for Nifty now?

Hi All,

Sorry for updating the blog after a while, couldn't do so as was caught up, however those are connected with me on What's App could have gotten the occasional trades / updates.

Now, further to the view published on 15th May, Advantage Bulls...? After breaking below 9040-900, Nifty did fell towards 8800 and yet again took support, suggesting a kind of sideways move. However after surpassing 9500-9700 and especially 9889, the high of the first bearish island pattern of  30th April, it gave a higher top higher top formation on the daily charts, suggesting a bullish trend.

Further to our earlier predictions, Nifty after sustaining above the 9900-10000 mark, a 50% retracement of the entire fall from 12400-7500, the next target ideally should be near 10440-10550, which is the 61.8% retracement of the fall and a kind of last resort for bears.

However, as per today's close, Nifty, near a crucial gap resistance which was formed between 11th and 12th March, has formed a Bearish Belt Hold  Pattern (click to read more), which suggests there might be downward reaction after such a strong upmove of last couple of weeks.

So, as today's high near 10328, being in the gap down resistance range of 10040-10324, the levels of 10330-10350 will act as a strong resistance and would be a hurdle for any up move further.

However it is important to note that, thanks to the Higher Top, Higher Bottom on daily and weekly charts, the medium term trend looks positive, the mid term reversal can be 9944-40, hence any down fall can be a counter reaction to the extended up move and hence can be for a very near term of less than a week or so....

Moreover, Nifty has formed a kind of triangular consolidation after a strong up move, which can be termed as a continuation bullish pattern similar to a pennant, and a close above 10180 can mean a strong up trend to continue for the index and could even target more than 11.3k (also near the 78.6% retracement of the entire fall, which is the next level to be watched for after 61.8%), however for that it would be advisable to have sitained close above 11550-600 levels which are the retracments.

In a nutshell, though there are enough positive triggers for bulls and even the momentum being with them, as Nifty is trading near a crucial gap resistance of 10040-10334, and near crucial retracement levels (10438-10552) from the entire fall from 12430, I am a bit bearish for near term, with a reversal above the resistances mentioned.

But, all said and done, a bearish view, like all other candle chart patterns, is only confirmed when prices sustain below the pattern's low, i.e. today's low near 10120. Below this, initially nifty can target 10040-10000-9940, where 9940 remains the crucial bottom to decide the further course of price action.

So, bulls are advised to be a bit cautious, whereas price formation offers a great low risk opportunity for bears below 10120, with targets near 10040-9940. In order to have a proper risk reward a sell on rise would be advisable with stops above 10350...

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Advantage Bulls ? ? ?

My answer is, Less likely....

After a couple of Bearish Island patterns on Daily charts, as expected, bears managed to push price further down today, however, a support near 9040-9000 worked for Bulls, yet again...

Moreover, Bulls managed a strong pull back of more than 100 points today, and thus we have a sizable buying pressure candle, almost similar to a Bullish Hammer, on daily charts. Nifty also managed to close above a recent trend line for the 3rd time today, confirming the same as well

However, unlike my several earlier Hammer related posts, this doesn't seem to a a very Bullish evidence, especially after the strong bearishness showed up by the bears by Islands on the top near Supertrend resistance, comparatively severe bearish patterns than Hammer.

I feel, it is less likely that the prices will find a short term bottom and and move up further. However, taking in to account couple of bullish evidences mentioned above, it is quite possible that we might enter in to a sideways price action for sometime, before continuing the downtrend further. The Bollinger band, which has contracted, already gives that hint.

So, in a nutshell, prices, if can not take out 9250-9350 (hourly Supertrend - Gap down ), further upside is unlikely, on the lower side today's low near 9050 and 9000 will be crucial to watch out for. As many of the news events and announcements are already factored in, and in an absence of any new anticipated event to discount, prices might trade sideways, in the range of 9000- 9600. And below 9k, 8900-8800 would be to watch out for (weak supports) whereas above 9600, 9900-1000 would be fresh hurdles.

Watch out for 9000-40 and 9550-9600...

Cheers

Happy Weekend....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Island mai Island....

Update 14 May 2020 2.40 PM

Nifty, exactly took support near the hourly Supertrend of 9120. A close above this would mean that a bounce back from bulls can not be ruled out. Resistances would be near 9280-9360-9410-9500-9590

So on the lower side, 9120-9070-9040-9000 would be crucial and the down trend would only be at a risk if the daily tops near 9580-9600 is taken out by bulls. As Nifty has given a first retracement towards the hourly Supertren, upside, if any, only possible above 9190-9200...

Since markets are near a support zone, it is advisable not to be on selling side, fresh shorts can be initiated below supports, or advisabley, as I always mention at resistances mentioned above (with a bearish evidence too)

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Confirmed... L T L B

Hi All,

As the Bearish Island on top suggested the advantage Bears, Nifty is not able to sustain the higher levels for a while now, and it has confirmed a Lower Top Lower Bottom on daily charts, which suggests Nifty is controlled by bears and can fall at least till 8900-8800...  The bearish view would be in tact till such time Nifty doesnt cross 9450-9550 0n the higher side.

Basis the retracement, 8980-8700-8400 would be support areas. The bias remains negative till the resistance near 9440-9550 is not surpassed by the bulls.

On the lower side though 8900-8800 are support zones, they are weak supports and not likely to hold the downfall, however, basis the law of demand and supply they should be respected to an extent. 9000 remains a crucial psychological support

The plan of action would be sell on rise with stops above the resistances mentioned.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bearish Island... (updated)

Update - 5th May 9.20 AM

A PRO Inside gap up, bias remains bullish, buy on dips with stops below 9240....

Also, Nifty has taken support and closed above the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent rise (Yellow colour, 9280) and 23.6% retracement of the entire rise from 7500 (Green colour, 9328)

A close now, above 9330-40 could mean the next leg upwards is in the making.....

A cause of concern is, on daily Nifty took resistance exactly near the Supertrend, hence any upside will  be capped only till the recent high near 9880...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Surpassed....

Hi all,

Though, found it a bit difficult, 8800, acted strongly, and allowed Nifty to bounce back sharply. It has now crossed 9320-9400 convincingly.

Going forward, Nifty is resting now near the upper end of the triangle patten mentioned in the earlier post. at 9600. After sustaining above 9600, Nifty should ideally move towards the 50% retracement of the entire fall from 12400-7500, near 9880-9900... And above that, it should target 10k and 10400-500 levels...

As Nifty is at the upper end of the triangle, possible we can see some muted action / correction, however, still the time Nifty closes above 9400, the ideal target would be near 9880-9900

Cheers
  

#MarketUpdate - Finding it difficult...

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, Nifty should ideally be going up till 9800 or even 10500 levels as a pull back to the fall from 12.4 k to 7.5 k before continuing the downward journey, even probably below 7500.

However, based on retracements it was crucial that Nifty surpases and sustains above the 38.2% retracement mark of 9320 , and upon failing to do so, Nifty might stop its upward journey can even turn downwards from here it self.

One another reason for this can be a bearish triangle formation on daily charts, wherein Nifty finding it difficult to surpass 9300-9400 levels. Another thing is USDINR, which failed to go down after it started a downfall and now the same is near another life time high of 76.9-77...

VIX, the volatility however cooled down as expected and corrected by 50% from the highs of 86 till 40.

So, if 9300-400 are not surpassed, we can expect Nifty halt the up ward pull back rally, and 8800-8700 would be supports on the lower side, below which Nifty can even go down till 8000-7700-7500...

As mentioned in the earlier posts, below 7500, 7200 (50 retracement of the entire rally from 2250-12400)-6800 (the 2016 low near 6800 would) - 6350 (high of 2008 before the fall) would act as crucial....

Another possiblity can also be, if USDINR corrects and VIX cools down a bit more towards 20 / 30,  then the markets might trade sideways in a broad range without breaking lows of 7500 and could surpass 9300-400 levels and trade higher till 9800-10500 as expected earlier.

In a nutshell, bullish bias can continue only after a sustaining move above 9330-50, bias would change to negative below 8800-8700...

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarketUpdate - All is well... For a while though... (Updated)

Update 17th april 10.45 PM

Bullish observations - 
After a nice rally till, 9260, Nifty fell sharply and took support near the 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from 7500 to 9260 (marked with Green retracements).


After creating a new high near 9320 today, Nifty continued the Higher Top Higher Bottom formation

Bearish observations - 

However after creating a new high, Nifty has now taken a resistance exactly at 38.2% retracement near 9320 (Red retracements) , this is a concern and any upside only possible when Nifty sustains above it. After that 50% retracement is near 9880 and 61.8% retracement near 10450... 

Supports - 9120-9050-8950-8910-8860-8820-8800, and then as mentioned below 
Resistances - 9250-9310-9330, and then as mentioned below

Unless Nifty sustains above 8800, the bias should be up and one can look at buy on dips with supports in mind.

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Ray of Hope? (Updated)

Update - 27th March 3.30 PM

As posted on the What's App broadcast in the morning, the news of rate cut by RBI has already been discounted by the markets and hence, with Buy The Rumpor, Sell the Fact analogy, a fall or a correction was expected after the news broke out today after the RBI announcement...

the gap up opening in the morning was given up immediately after the news, as the correction was of more than 500 points as the markets sold off from the highs of 9038 levels till 8522, though settled near 8674, marginally up by 13 points.

On hourly charts... Though. Nifty is kind of making a Head and Shoulder (bearish) patter, the RSI shows a Bullish hidden divergence. Also there would be hourly (closing basis) support near  8330, which is the Supertrend.

So in a nutshell, bias would remain bullish, unless Nifty holds to the trendline drawn on the chart above (8600-40), below which 8380-8330(Supertrend)-8270 can be good supports. If the Head and Shoulders materializes, the potential target could be near 8k mark...

However, hidden divergence means, above 8700 and 9040, Nifty can scale further highs near the resistances shown in the chart below...

Trade accordingly....

Cheers, have a great weekend...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - What's next? (Updated 26/03)

Update - 26th March 2020, 9.20 AM

Though, Nifty neither did respect the Morning star pattern nor held on to the mentioned supports, and could not surpass the same, we didn't get any long entry then....

However, below 7800, Nifty halted near the first support mentioned of 7500, and after creating a low of 7511, has so far rallied till 8300-8400

It is very crucial now, that the recovery which happens, should take place in a consolidation manner and there should not be any V shape recovery as seen earlier, as they prove to be short lived.

On the IV side, since 6th Mar, it closed in red only for the second time yesterday, and more importantly, created a bearish like pattern (Harami / Dark Cloud), and today, slipped below yesterday's low, further bearish confirmation for IV can be when IV breaks the low near 71.95, which would confirm the bearish pattern. (CMP 76.90).

All said and done, a recovery, or let me say a sustained recovery can only be possible if we consolidate near these levels with a gradual fall in India VIX... If, without breaking the supports, if VIX creates a new life above 86.64, it could mean some more volatility and pain is still left for markets on its way down...

Cheers

Hrishi