#MarketUpdate - Engulfing Bull ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty took support near the upward gap demand zone on the daily charts between 11400-11600. After creating a low of 11625, Nifty surged sharply, and rose almost by 2 % to close around 11850 levels.

In this, Nifty created an Engulfing Bull pattern, which suggests that this upmove to continue at least till 12 k levels.

However, as per the pattern confirmation guidelines, any long entry is only advisable above 11850-60 levels for initial targets of 12k and with stop loss below 11600-400, hence the trade would not offer any favourable risk reward.

I would reiterate that any bullish move only and only valid till the time Nifty holds above the support zone of 11400-11600, so once it crosses 11850-60, one can look at buy on dips opportunities with stop below supports...

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, yet again ! ! !

Update - 12:15 PM 17th June 2019

As expected, Nifty, after rising for a while, took resistance near the mentione area near 12k levels, and fell sharply from thereon to trade currently near the crucial, 38.2% retracement mark of 11700-11720, below this the next support zone would be directly near the gap up area of 11400-11600.....

Traders who have shorts at the higher levels can book partial profits and trail stop loss at cost.

Nifty also formed a lower top lower bottom on daily charts, which is a sign of huge concerns for bulls and short term bias remains negative untill Nifty surpasses 12k now.

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi all,

Nifty, rallied sharply from the Election verdict day, now currently trades near 11900 levels. On hourly charts, Nifty has created a Bearish Shooting Star pattern, that too, near the a prior resistance of 12050 and also close to Supertrend near 11970.

As per the view given on the election day, I guess the sell on rise strategy is the way forward and now, one can look for selling opportunity below the supports of 11900-11870, with stop loss above the penultimate level of life high and targets of 11750-11650-11600....

Cheers ! ! !

Ab ki baar 40 Hajaaar.... What's next? BEWARE Bulls? Yes....

Hi All,

From the What to Expect from Stock Markets post yesterday, the first scenario played out

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

With NDA allies leading on close to 345 seats, which suggests that they would win somewhere near 330-350 seats at least, and it's almost certain that we have Modi 2.O in making, comfortably.

And as expected, Nifty rallied till 12000 mark, created a high 12041.15, and the analogy of Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, kicked in, as usual...

Nifty closed the day, down by 80 points (almost 400 points lower from the high) at 10650 levels.... ending up with a huge Red candle giving us Bearish Engulf pattern....

Now the big question is, What's next?

Since, Technical Analysis believes in History repeating itself, let us draw some comparison between 2014 and 2019...

In 2014, the result day, almost had the same movement, where markets gapped up after the exit polls, rallied on the counting day, and sold off badly after the final result.

Post that, Nifty traded sideways for almost 2-3 weeks, and finally broke above the high of verdict day....

Now, in 2019, markets almost behaved in the same fashion, a gap up after the exit polls and rally followed by sell of on the verdict day, however, importantly, the fall of verdict day is much more ..

Moreover, the bigger difference lies in the weekly context. Though today is Thursday and week is not yet over, the weekly candle, looks like a Gravestone Doji, which is a bearish sign

So....

I feel, tomorrow's price action would be very crucial to decide the further trend of short / mid term... firstly it should break today's low....

However, the levels of 11400-11600 would be very key supports for short term, whereas 11100-11000 would be a mid term support... On the higher side, any upside is possible, only and only if Nifty sustains above the 12041-50 mark.

If, Nifty fails to cross 12040-50 mark tomorrow and in next week, breaks today's low near 10610-20, that would be a serious sign of concern for bulls....

The plan of action now to be, Sell on Rise with stop loss above the ultimate resistance of the new life high...

We need to also keep in mind, domestic challenges such as slow earning pick up, need sustainability for lower valuation, slow consumption growth, lower liquidity due to recent NBFC crisis,etc and global issues like US - China trade war, US - Iran war, etc.

In a nutshell, keeping aside any Positive / Negative surprises by RBI in the first week of June 2019 ...I feel, Nifty to be trading with a negative bias for a month or so, untill the next big domestic trigger, i.e. the Union Budget, which would be announced in June end or July 2019.

Cheers....

What to expect from #StockMarkets on the D-Day?

Hi All,

I have already discussed various scenarios of what can happen in the earlier post, Prelims cracked...

However, my personal view is....

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

2. If the actual numbers are below exit poll expectations, but NDA in comfortable majority, a small spike in the markets, that too may not be more than 12000 for Nifty, but based on Buy the Rumour Sell the fact analogy, there will be a SHARP correction...

3. Numbers less than expectations, and NDA short of 272 (up to 200-250), more than the knee jerk reaction, markets can be in corrective mode, and the ultimatum would be the government formation, which might take few days...

4. NDA seats less than 200, we can even expect a blood bath, and like 2004, one can not rule out a fall worth 5 - 10% or even more....

5. Also, importantly, unlike the quarterly results / budget session, which lasts for few minutes to may be an hour or so, this event might last longer for around 2 to 4 hours, i.e. till 1.00 PM, or even more than that, hence a huge volatility can be expected during the trading sessions, hence an at most cautiousness by traders is advised

Needless to say that, for any of the scenario, I strongly feel, a sharp fall either during or post the event is very likely....

Let's Wait and Watch  ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Bang on Target ! ! !

Hi All,

Markets are down by more than  100 basis points today, and as mentioned in the yesterday's blog, yet again, Buy the Rumour, sell the Fact analogy, proven right.

After kissing the Life time high of 11856-57, Nifty plummeted sharply and currently trades near 10700, down by almost 180 points from today's high near 10880.

The IV, measure for volatility, though had cooled off yesterday by more than 15%, is up again by 8% today. Needless to say, a huge volatility would be expected, till the final verdict.

Remember as per the scenarios explained yesterday, any negative surprises from the expectations of Exit poll, would not augur well for markets, and hence I advised to have a Portfolio Insurance buy buying puts worth less than 5k.

Nifty is having an immediate support near 10650, a Supertrend level on hourly charts and is kind of making a bearish pattern on daily charts, Dark cloud cover, and this is, surely is the worry. However, there will be a strong support for Nifty at the upward gap of yesterday between, 11400-20 to 11580-600, and if markets sustain below these levels, it might be horrifying for bulls.

As we are approaching the final verdict, my advise would be stay out of the markets or trade with strict stops and money management (If anyone was short as per my the advise given yesterday, can book partial profits and trail stops, however due to higher volatility the original stop of 11860-70 was kind of triggered with a small margin :(

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate- Prelims cracked, Merit Class, BUT ! ! !

Hi All,

Bang on.... The age old Dow Theory Principal, Proven right, yet again....

Price discounts everything

As discussed in the earlier post of Friday, markets gaped up by more than 2%  and seems to have, to an extent, factored in a probable outcome of the verdict on 23 May, which is ideally expected to be close to the Exit Polls announced yesterday. Good part is indices are sustaining the upward leap and trading up by close to 4% now and trading a hit away from the life high.

I feel, following scenarios to unfold in the near future -

1. Markets have factored in the NDA's majority and return to power with close to 5 -6% gains on Friday and today
2. Any further leap by NDA above the tally of exit polls (Close to or above 300 seats) would mean another reason to cheer for markets and we can expect a fresh northward move on 23 or 24 May which might breach the life high for Nifty of 11760
3. Moreover, a clear single handed majority for BJP on its own, would be very much welcome by bulls and enough to take Nifty near 12k mark or even higher
4. Remotely probable scenario, (buy can't be ruled out, especially after lat week's Australian exit polls and another cases like 2004 elections exit pools went completely wrong Read : exit polls going completely or partially wrong) of exit polls getting it wrong completely (like 2004 elections) and BJP gets less than 170-180 seats and hence NDA may not be in a position to form the government and UPA with other MGM allies forms government, this would be a severe shock to the markets and we can expect a huge sell off, something even closer or similar to that of 2004 where markets plummeted by approx 20% in days after the verdict. In this scenario 10500-10000-9500 becomes visible, but predicting the actual damage may be next impossible. 
5. Less probable  outcome where the final tally is lesser than exit polls expectation numbers but BJP and NDA manages to somehow maintain the majority, where BJP gets somewhere between 200-220 seats and other allies gets required seats (and with a bit of horse trading), markets might give up some of the gains of these 2 days, and might settle above 11k mark

All said and done, in past 2 sessions, markets yet again proved that it discounts everything, there is also one other, equally meaningful principal, which says 

Buy the Rumour sell the Fact....

Basis this, I personally feel, even if the verdict is close enough to the exit polls and BJP wins with a thumping majority, this rally might not sustain, and before the markets decide the next course of action, there should be a serious and aggressive  profit booking post the event. 

Not only that, after the exit poll resulsts, there might be a chance that the Nifty might kiss the all time high, but even for tomorrow / day after (before the verdict and post the exit poll) it may not hold on to today's gains and might trade sideways between 11500-11900

For trading, a simple rule can be, since markets are trading near a resistance zone of life high, the risk reward favors a short position, if someone dares (and one should dare too) should be with a stop loss above the life high but Traders are advised to trade with caution...

Investors, should really not worry as the exit polls are not indicating any price shocks after the verdict, but if the scenario 4 or 5, gets played out, they should definitely protect their portfolios at negligible costs. Please read - Portfolio Insurance

Portfolio Insurance, a must read for an Investor ! ! !

Hi All,

This might be one of my longest blogs, but trust me, would be very useful for Long term investors. Also, this  post, speaks a lot about a very interesting market segment of Derivatives / FNO, which is a bit tricky at first to understand, please feel free to get back to me for any doubts.

#MarketUpdate - NDA coming back to power ? ? ?

Hi All,

No, I am not saying it, but Yes, markets might be indicating.

Was out of markets, hence could not post any updates for a while. However, in the absence of any bullish evidence, Nifty could not hold levels of 11250-200 and created a low near below the next gap support of 11150-11170, though it closed below the gap for a day but bounced back sharply after creating a Bullish Harami Pattern, which would have given a buy above 11300 with stop  below 11100, could not update the same.... :(

On the political front, I personally think that 2019 is no where going to be easy for NDA like 2014, and would be challenging to get the required majority. However, on the eve of a big political event the way Nifty has bounced back by almost 3% (11100 to 11400) it keeps me wondering if the markets are discounting a probable positive outcome from the exit polls due on Sunday (at least a near to clear mandate to NDA, somehow).

Nonetheless, Nifty after a stunning pullback, looks good for bulls with ultimate support near 11100-11000 and thanks to the multiple Bullish Haramis, expected to travel at least till 11470-80, which also is a downward gap resistance. Another good sign would be that the weekly candle is a strong pull back candle and 11430-11470-11500 would be crucial levels to watch out for.

However, on a safer side, let us wait for Monday to take any trade, the next week is going to be crucial for trading aspects, as the actual results would be declared on 23rd May, which also happens to be the weekly expiry.

#MarketUpdate - Bang Bang . . . .

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty plummeted sharply after breaking below the neck line of the Head and Shoulder Pattern. The target for the same as mentioned is almost achieved near 112230-11250.... (Today's low ~11255) in less than 2-3 days....

The next crucial level to watch out for would be the upward gap support between 11160-11230, traders with open short positions can book full / partial profits and trail stop loss above 11360-400....

However, thanks to the intraday pullback by bulls, today's candle looks like a indecisive candle and moreover, on hourly charts, the strong pull back in the last hour of trading can be treated positively to an extent. There is also a positive divergence which would only be triggered above 11360-400.

I personally feel the lows of 11250-11200 would be very strong and should act as supports going forward, so risky bulls can take a low risk opportunity, by taking long positions on dips with stop loss below 11230-11200, still another bullish evidence would be welcome... 

One thing to note that, the weekly candle as of now is a strong bearish candle, with no sign of respite for bulls, hence the above mentioned bullish view can just be a pull back and not a complete trend reversal...

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Head and Shoulder ! ! ! (Updated on 8th May)

Update - 10.05 AM 8th May 2019

Short traders can book partial profits at the first support zone mentioned near 11400... trail stop loss at cost...


Update - 2.55 PM 8th May 2019

Nifty breaks 10400 as well, next pit stop near 10340-11300-11220-11170 . . . . Continue holding shorts with trail stop loss above 10530 (cost), conservative traders can even trail stop loss above 11460-70

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Hidden Signal ? ? ?

Update - 26th April 2.15 PM

Nifty, up by 100 odd points, however, the market breadth (Advance Decline ratio) is a cause of concern as Declines are more than Advances

Bulls can ideally book a partial profits and trail stop loss at cost.... CMP 11740...

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Engulfing

Hi all,

Though the inter market divergence was negated, as per today's morning update, Nifty, even after creating a Life high (marginally by just 0.80 points), consolidated the day in a small range without any major upside.

But in the closing hours, index gave off all the gains and ended up creating a solid red candle which depicts a Bearish pattern, Bearish Engulf... just near a prior resistance area, which even increases its significance

After the fall of around around 130 pts / more than a %, it settled near the support zone of 11600-640, which again becomes a crucial area to watch out for.

So, very Important support for Nifty would be near 11560-11630, sustaining below which, can mean a down move to the lower supports near 11520-11470-11400-11300.....

This fall was very much expected, especially after the last 3 days price actions. The price for all 3 days closed very near to open, creating a doji (indecisiveness) candle, 29th March (Hanging man), 1st April (shooting Star) and 2nd April another Hanging man, was clearly suggesting the upper hand of bears and that was the reason the the earlier post I expected a very limited upside further, before at least respecting these bearish sentiments once. 

However, markets has a funny way of showing you that you are wrong, hence any short trade should be taken below the key support mentioned above and that too with a strict stop loss slightly above the Life high. 

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - NIFTY, at Life high.... BUT . . .

Hi all,

Nifty created an all time high and hence the inter market divergence is negated.

Also, it did not break the low of bearish Shooting Star pattern near 11640-30 so no shorts initiated.

The upside might be capped on account of important event of General elections 2019 to be held in this and next month. The results would be out on 23rd May 2019 and till then one can expect a great amount of volatility in the markets.

Also, more importantly, Nifty has surged by more than 15% in past 5 months, and hence I believe, that the risk reward for Bulls is not favourable at the moment.

So traders, it's better to wait and watch for entering in to a trade.

Remember, lesser profits / No trade is always better than a Loss

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - CAUTION, Diversion Ahead.... Fool's Day fooling ???

Hi All,

First of all, wish you a very Happy New Financial Year 2019-20.... :)

Surprisingly, the falling window could not do its magic and Nifty, after taking support near the first support zone mentioned near 10300-310, closed handsomely above the downward gap near 10435-40. And after that there was no look back for Bulls as they took Nifty towards almost a 9 month high, not the life time though...

However, Sensex today crossed 39k mark for the first time ever and surpassed its earlier Life high of 38989.65 and created a new high near 39115.57.

Now, this raises serious concerns for bulls

Firstly, Sensex is the only index which created a life high, and all other major indices, i.e. Nifty, Mid cap, Small cap, etc did not surpass their respective highs. This phenomenon is called as a kind of Inter market (index) divergence which can prove to be very alarming. The only issue is this can continue for a period of time and taking a trade just based on this may not be a good idea...

However, importantly, Nifty which was up by almost a % (115 points), gave more than half of its gains and closed up by just 45 points, and in this bargain, both Nifty and Sensex both have created a Bearish pattern which looks similar to the Shooting Star / Gravestone Doji.

In a nutshell, today's low for the indices would be crucial to watch out for.

Hence very Important support for Nifty would be near 10560-10630, sustaining below which, can mean a down move to the lower supports near 10520-11470-11400-11300.....

However, though it's quit difficult for Mid and small call indices, but even if Nifty manages to surpass the previous high of 11760 levels, we can then say that the divergence didn't work and it may continue its northward journey.

So, the big question is, are the Bears fooling us on Fools day?

I feel, 10400-10300 levels are very crucial for bulls.....

Let the time decide, wait and watch for the aforesaid levels...

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Falling window ! ! !

Hi all,

After 2 consecutive negative closes near a weekly resistance of near 11580, Nifty gaped down today and closed lower by more than 100 points or ~ 1%.

The hourly hammer mentioned in the earlier post, did not get triggered and hence a long position could not have been entered at all.

After opening negative, Nifty kind of achieved the first target for shorts near 10310. Those who have gone short below the supports of 10400-10430, can remain short with stop losses mentioned earlier.

Also, a gap down opening means that untill Nifty closes above 11435-40, the trend is likely to remain negative going forward....

Key resistance for Nifty would be the gap off 11395-11435, 11480-11525-11580-11610, whereas the supports would be near, 11300-11260-11220-11130...

Cheers......

#MarketUpdate - Mohe rang do Laaal ! ! !

Hi All,

Belated Holi wishes to all....

After a stupendous positive rally, Nifty closed negative for 2 consecutive day after 28th Feb 2019.

As posted earlier, it took resistance near the weakly supply zone of 11570-11580.

Bears can rejoice - 

1. On hourly charts today, Nifty started the day with a bearish engulf pattern on hourly charts, which clearly conveyed intentions of BEARS.
2. Even today's daily candle is a strong bearish candle without any visible bottom tail, which shows that the BEARS have managed to take the control.
3. And above all weekly candle for Nifty is a shooting star like candle with a long upper shadow suggesting a lot of selling pressure.

Things to worry for bears -

1. Today's second last hourly candle for Nifty is a perfect Hammer kind of candle which is bullish
2. There would be a good amount of support near 10400 mark for Nifty.

To sum it up, crucial levels to watch out for would be 11400 on the lower side and 11580-600 on the higher side, and a break of either side would decide the further direction.

Plan of action for traders - 

Wait for the opening of Monday, bulls can still take back the control if they manage to keep the index above today's hourly hammer low near 11430, one can take a small risk and go long, if Nifty opens on Monday on a flat to positive note and follow a strict stop loss below 11400-11430 but if it breaks the support near 11400, it can fall down further to next support zones near 11310-11260-11220-11175-11120..... However, I would personally feel to wait for it to break the crucial levels and then take the trade accordingly

P.S. - 

Nifty has rallied by almost 1000 points within a period of just a month, and hence a breather can be expected in markets and index can trend range bound or with a slight bearish bias. Traders are advised to take positions with strict stop loss and with proper money management.


Have a great weekend!!!

Cheers....

#MarketUpdate - Yeh BULL hai, ke maanta nahi !

Update - 1040 hours 22nd Mar 2019

Nifty has taken resistance near the weekly supple area near 11570-80

Today's trading action would be very crucial...

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Rickshaw Man !

Hi All,

As posted in the last update, Bears could not win the battle near the 78.6% retracement near 11384-90 and Bulls managed to sky rocket the index to the next hurdle of 11470-11530.

Though Nifty hit the 6th month high today near the daily resistance of 11530, it has ended up with a look alike of Rickshaw man candlestick pattern, usually treated as a trend reversal, if the low is broken and sustained convincingly. (Refer the chart below)

Hence, today's low becomes very crucial for bulls, as failing to hold that would mean than index might see a down ward retracement of the entire rise of last month from 11600 odd levels. So, short positions can be initiated, if and only if Nifty convincingly breaks 11400 mark with a stop loss above 11530-50... Below 11400 Nifty can drift down to 1150-11310-11260-11200-11130.

However, if Bulls yet again manage to take out 11530, Nifty can zoom firstly towards 11610 and then create a Life high above 11760..


Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Last ray of hope for BEARS...

Update - 0920 hours 15th March 2019.....

Bulls managed to take out the 78.6% retracement quite convincingly, a sustained close above that would take Nifty near the Life Time highs... Immediate hurdles for bulls - 11470-11530-11610

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - History repeats itself? 2014 Vs. 2019 Charts Analysis... !!!

Hi All,

Continuing further from my earlier post, Nifty did not give any sign of weakness (which was advised), and scaled higher, comfortably breaching the key levels near 11200. Now, as posted the next barrier for bulls would be near 11350, and today, Nifty created a high around that level. But interestingly it has created a Hanging Man Pattern, so sign of cautious for bulls.

No, as we all know, markets are awaiting the general elections and hence the volatility is expected to go up.

I just thought of putting the charts 1 year prior to the elections of 2014 and 2019. And the same are self explanatory

Nifty daily chart - PreElection time 2014 Vs 2019

As we can see, the movements might have been different over the first 5-6 months (i.e. from May-Oct), however, whats more important is that, the index traded almost the same way from November to March in 2013-14 and 2018-19, the pre election time for markets.

Please have a look at the chart below is for the entire 2014, after the election results and you know what do I mean....

Nifty post General election 2014, gains of around 60% from the lows of 2013 and 30% from the levels of March

By going by the basic tenant of Technical Analysis, The History repeats itself, and if the same turns out to be true, it is needless to say, what I expect from markets in this year, if we have a decisive mandate....

From the lows of 2013 near 5300 (previous year to the general election), Nifty rallied by almost 60% till December 2013.
P.S. 2018 low near 10k for Nifty. 

Even, from the 6500 levels of March 2014, Nifty rallied by almost 30%.
P.S. Nifty 2019 March levels 10300

Though the elections results don't dictate terms for the long term appreciation of the markets (as seen even at the times of coalition governments in 1990's) for the immediate movement, as mentioned, it all depends on history repeating itself, which means it would be necessary to get a decisive mandate in the General elections 2019.

Let's wait and watch the fun....

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Knock knock BEARS ? ? ?

Hi All,

Nifty recovered sharply after a short lived sell off post Air strikes and rose by almost by 3% from the bottom of 10730.

However, Nifty is currently trading near an important area of resistance from 11050-11180.

Today, Nifty has given a strong gaped up opening however, it's an amateur gap and may not last long if bears strike hard. Also, on daily charts, Nifty has a very small downward gap between 11041-1043 which will act as resistance. A sustaining close below 11041 would mean that the current up move only took place to close the gap.

Any further up move is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains above the resistance zone.

Risky bears will now think of shorting Nifty now or on rise with stop loss above 11180-11200....., however, a sustained move above 11180-200 would mean a next leg up likely for Nifty taking it higher till 11350-11530-110610 and then finally above 11760, the life time high.....

However, personally I feel, it's advisable to wait for a bearish confirmation on daily or at least hourly charts for going short

Nifty CMP - 11040

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Chance pe Dance..... Go Long....

Update 2.10 PM 26th Feb....

Book full profits in nifty intraday near 10840-10850 for the longs initiated near 108780-790....

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Sustainable bounce ? ? ?

Hi All,

I was out of town in the first week of Feb, and due to some technical issue could not post the update on blog. However, on my What's App broadcast list, have suggested shorts near 10950-11000 and for which profits were booked above 10800, which was the trailing stop loss.

After falling consecutively for 9 odd days, Nifty finally witnessed a bounce from the support zone near 10530-10590. 18-20 Feb candles also show, though not exactly, but a lookalike pattern of Morning star.

Nifty charts are giving some contrarian view as follows...

As per DAILY charts, this bounce can continue till 10920 levels which is a 61.8% retracement of the previous fall from 11118 to 10585, and above that Nifty is expected to scale higher towards 11010-11120-11050. Though the current bounce looks like a short term up move, any material changes in the trend is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains 11150-11200 levels. (Refer the chart below)

However, as per WEEKLY charts, Nifty after forming a bearish Shooting star pattern (week ending 8th Feb), nifty created a hammer like bullish candle for the last week, however, the same can not be counted as it did not appear after a bear trend, however, it's a strong bullish candle and can not be  forgotten either. Moreover, a complete bounce from 10k levels has halted near 11118 which is 61.8% retracement of the fall from 11.7k to 10k. (Refer the chart below)

In a nutshell, as a result of this contrary indications,  traders are advised to trade with caution and with proper risk management. As it is markets are expected to remain choppy for few months, mainly on account of the general elections and trading with strict stop losses and trailing stops regularly is a must.

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarkeUpdate - Laaaaao Bazaar, Nifty wapis 11 Hajaar

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty faced a stiff resistance near the psychological mark of 10900-11000 and turned down couple of times from there.

However, it has managed to cross it today, at least in the early trades which is a good sign for bulls.

However, Nifty should sustain these levels to start the next up move.

The target on the upside will be near 11150-11300-11400, where as the supports would be near 10800-10580

Cheers

Hrishi ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - /\ Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

Wish you all a very happy, prosperous and healthy New year 2019.....

My apologies for wishing so late, but this is my first update in 2019, thanks to a range bound market for past one month or so.

As mentioned in my last post, Bulls showed a lot of power and bounced back sharply from key area of 10490-10550, where prices has key retracement support and Supertrend support as well.

As expected, Nifty is comfortably sustaining above these levels, however with a lot of range bound, consolidated moves. And in this bargain, it has manged to form a continuation pattern, Symmetrical Triangle. (Please refer the chart below)

The pattern, will be confirmed when Nifty sustains above 10850-10900 levels and if so, can target higher levels of 11200-11300, even on a conservative basis. (CMP 10880)

By crossing the hourly resistance near 10870, Nifty has formed a higher top-higher bottom formation which is a good news for the bulls,

All said and done, Nifty should ideally surpass the hurdle near 10900-11000 in order to start the new move upwards.

Levels, critical to watch out on the lower side would be 10680-10600/10-10490/10550-10300/350-10100-10000-9940....

The area of 10600-10700 would be crucial for short term traders and can be termed as a trend reversal, if Nifty breaks and sustain below it, whereas 9950-10300 would be very important for mid term to long term trend.,....

Cheers...

#MarketUpdate - Superrrr se Uparrrrrr performance by BULLS ! ! !

Hi all,

Nifty, after giving up 10700 levels, fell drastically on Monday and gaped down today to take support near the expected area of 10490-10550, mentioned in the earlier post.

However, 10530, which was a Supertrend support on daily chart was respected by bulls never before and they got back the entire control surrendered to bears in past few days, so much so that, the gap down opening triggered by the global sell off was off set and Nifty managed to close handsomely in green territory.

1. A positive divergence on 15 minutes charts
2. Strong pull back from the daily Supertrend support
3. A look alike of Piercing Line pattern (will trigger only above 10780-10800)

set up on daily charts, builds up lots of expectations for Bulls. Though this sounds very encouraging for bulls, any meaningful and decisive upside can only be expected when Nifty sustains above 10770 -10800 mark, which will then give higher top formation on hourly charts, a key for a reversal.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bears come back for a weekend party ! ! !

Hi All,

Whoa.....What a comeback from bears.....

After a continuous rally of more than 5%, I expected a halt couple of days back when there was a bearish Harami pattern, which was not respected by bulls, but finally today, bears fought back strongly and even won the battle for a week.

In spite of bullish closes for 7 out of 8 days after the bottom at 10330, Nifty weekly chart now looks gloomy with a Shooting star link candle appearing near the resistance area mentioned earlier.... and hence, 10730-10700 levels is the last chance for bulls to pull back, else as per the lower top lower bottom formation of the hourly chart, near term trend looks negative with supports near 10660-10620-10550-10490-10430 and the final one near 10330.

As mentioned in earlier posts, if Nifty fails to create a bottom above 10330 and pull back from there, I feel even the 10k level would be at a risk....

#MarketUpdate - Bulls back on Track ?

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty surged after surpassing the levels of 10850 and today closed near 10970 levels.

Markets have crossed most of the resistances and now the final hurdle can be near 11050-11100-11170

Moreover, Nifty managed to cross and even close above the prior high of 10941 which is a very good sign as per Dow theory - Higher Top.... Higher bottom formation.

Also, Nifty has closed above the Supertrend on daily chart which is another encouragement for bulls, and now 10540-10500 levels will act as Supertrend support as well.

Nifty should now sustain these levels and surpass the resistances mentioned above.

Technically even the mid term bias has changed to positive, however I would like to wait for a while. Nonetheless, the recent bottom near 10333 becomes very crucial now and will be foundation support hereon, below which Nifty can even break previous bottoms near 10k levels.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Inside Bar.... What if BJP loses 2019 elections... #BigBull explains

Hi all,

It's ideally a Status Quo for markets as it tightly held, the levels posted yesterday.

But in that bargain, it has given an Inside bar pattern (today's high low within yesterday's range)

Hence, the levels of 10730-40 on the lower side and 10840-70 on the higher side becomes very crucial for markets going forward and will decide the future course of the markets...

Let's forget that for a while and enjoy the weekend till Monday...

Wishing you all a nice weekend....

Till then, just sharing a What's App forward.... It's excerpts from the latest chat with the #BigBull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala where he talks about his expectations of 2019 General elections and what happens if BJP is not voted back to power....

A must watch...

Happy weekend

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MArketUpdate - So far, so Good ! ! !

As they say.....

All is well, that Ends well....

Today as well, Nifty opened gaped up by almost 70 points showing a lot of strength from bulls, and the markets traded almost in the range of 60 points till 2.30. 

Though, bears showed  their presence, for a very small period of less than an hour, Bulls managed to pull the prices fairly up again....

As mentioned in the earlier post, Nifty exactly took resistance in the zone of 10810-10870 (multiple barriers, 78.6% retracement, gap down openings and Supertrend on daily charts) and now it becomes crucial to surpass this level, before bears get charged up....

Even though for little time, bears showed there presence hence the next up move can only start above 10840-10870 levels. There was nothing seriously bearish on intra day chart yet, but tone can look for intra day shorts with strict stop loss above the resistances.Traders can watch out for these numbers.

Crucial levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10740-10700-10620-10550-10480-10430-10300-10100-10000-9950-9700
Resistance - 10750-10820-10860-10950-11050-11170

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Abhi hum Zinda hai... ! ! !

Update 5.50 PM 12th December 2018 - Just got the news about consumer inflation being eased to 2.22% , almost by 100 basis points (1%), Today's upsurge could be on account of that.. be cautious tomorrow.....

Cheers

Hi....

Today's post heading is a famous Bollywood dialogue of Firoz Khan from the comic movie "Welcome", and somehow it suits perfectly to the current political and markets scenario. The actors speaking this dialogue would be Congress and Bulls of Dalal street.... Lol

On the political front, yesterday Congress proved their strength by winning the Assembly Election battle with BJP by stunning margin of 3-0 (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and almost certainly Madhya Pradesh). This can be a vital development, especially when we are near to the General LS elections of April-May 2019 and the fact that it is a focal point for all the opposition parties which are against the BJP.

On Dalal Street, on 2 consecutive days bulls showed their power by giving a movement of more than 400 points from the bottom of 10330 yesterday.

As we expected in yesterday's post, after surpassing 10600 mark, Nifty today zoomed up and crossed the target of 10700.

Nifty created a high today of 10752, which is above the downward gap between 5th and 6th December 2018, on daily charts which is a good thing, ideally it should close above the 10750 mark though.

Also, Nifty crossed and closed above 10710-10720 levels, a 61.8% mark of the recent fall (from 10940 - 10330) which is another healthy sign. Hereon, markets should sustain these levels and need to comfortably surpass 10810-10820 mark, which is the 78.2% retracement and becomes very crucial to to pull the prices down from there. Also, 10810 to 10870 mark is very crucial zone as daily Supertrend is near 10860 and there are multiple gap downs on daily charts, which will act as a resistance on a closing basis

In order to stop the bulls juggernaut, bears need to restrict bulls before the above mentioned hurdles

Crucial levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10620-10550-10480-10430-10300-10100-10000-9950-9700
Resistance - 10750-10820-10860-10950-11050-11170

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour, sell the Fact.....! ! !

Hi All,

Though there was a nail biting fight going on between Congress and BJP to form a government in Madhya Pradesh (almosgt clear that Congress will form it now), and the same will be cleared by today or in few days in case there is a hung assembly, that is not at all a case for markets today.

It is almost visible, at least for today, that the ongoing events (including unpredictable resignation of the RBI governor) were seemed to be discounted in the recent fall from 10940 to 10330, which yet again proves that "Buy the rumour, sell the fact" analogy works and is dependable to an extent.

However, let us not be hasty and jump the rope to call this as the short term trend reversal.

Today, Nifty recovered sharply from the lows near supports of 10330, and managed to close at 10550, near to the day's high of 10567, which is a sign of relief, at least temporary, to the bulls. Also, Nifty has created a Hammer like pattern on weekly charts, though not a valid one as it is not at the end of a daily down trend, but still a buying pressure candle coupled with a strong Bullish engulf pattern on Daily charts

Next few days are going to be very crucial for Nifty with 10300 - 10000 - 9700 levels being the crucial supports, whereas 10600-10700-10950-11100 are important hurdles going up.

A close above 10480 is surely encouraging for bulls at least for near term (based on RENKO Charts), however it is is a huge responsibility of bulls to sustain markets above 10480-10530 levels on a closing basis.

10480 is very crucial as per RENKO daily charts, a monthly trend line near that area and it's a 20 month SMA.... (Please find the monthly candlestick chart below)

As there is a hidden RSI divergence (an opposite of regular divergence and a an effective one) on monthly charts, I personally feel change in the midium term sentiment is possible only above 11050-11100 levels for Nifty, till then.... It's advantage Bears.....

As mentioned, let's wait for some confirmations before executing a trade, till then, advice is to trade with strict stop loss and targets with proper risk reward....

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Nothing seems to be right... Look Left.... #Technicals

Update end of the day - Please refer the next post

#Market Update - Bullish Island

Hi All,

Nifty did not act as per our expectations in the last post, Ray of Hope, and broke the previous lows near 10850 levels...

Yet again on daily charts, Nifty has given a bullish indication, a set up of on 10th, 11th and 12th October 2018 is very similar to the Bullish Island pattern It's not the exact pattern formation and a look alike as there are no gaps as per the pattern definition....

As per the supports and resistances, Nifty should ideally travel to 10750 odd levels basis this, and it has already touched 10700 levels a couple of days before, however it corrected sharply from there and currently trade near 10300 mark.

Let me share, what I have been doing personally in the recent bottoms and a small bounce thereof (from 10866 to 11000 and then from 10130 to 10700)... At every dip of such kind, I look forward towards heavily beaten down bluechip / quality stocks and take a No exposure position on them with an intention of selling it whenever they give me a decent % increase, but with also predetermined stop loss below the recent lows... Likewise, I have booked small 2 to 5% or in some cases, even 15% profits in stocks like, PEL, PNB, DHFL, Bajaj Finance, HDFC AMC, Jubilant Foods, LIC Housing, Lupin, Marico, TBZ and Yes Bank. However there are some stocks which are yet to perform and I am still holding them.

Now, in the absence of any major trigger (especially with a positive outcome), its advisable for traders not to take positions with exposures for more than a few days and keep booking profits as markets are very volatile and the fluctuation is expected to increase on account of state election results in almost a month's time.

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Hi all,

As posted in the last blog of Bears Attack, thanks to multiple negative signals, Nifty lost it all after breaking 11630 and plummeted by almost 800 points to create a bottom near 10866.

People who are short now should look at booking some profits, and in fact can even think of taking a bull mode.

Thanks to a Bullish Harami pattern on daily charts, looks like that the bottom can be in place near the recent lows of 10850, at least for short term, and after such a sharp fall in the markets, even its fair to expect a small bounce, if not a trend change. Also, the recent bottom, is exactly in a rising window (upward gap between 9&10th July) on daily charts, which supports a small bounce. (Please refer the graph below). Moreover, the candle on the day of sharp sell off, is actually a candle with bullish pressure, looking similar to a Hammer pattern

The only thing against the bull yesterday was that the market breadth, with Advance Decline ratio of 7:11, which favours the bulls

However, risky traders are advised to take a long trade, if and only if Nifty surpasses 11100 mark with stop loss below the supports of 10850 and with targets near the resistances of 11200-11350-11520-11600.

Since the stop loss is very wide (almost of 250 points), one can enter partially above 11100 and even buy on dips, if any, as per one's risk appetite.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bears Attack ! ! !

Hi All,

Markets continued their upward journey and kept on creating all time highs for past few months. Nifty hit 11760.2 where as Sensex touched 38989.75, missing the 39k mark buy just 11 odd points.

But after such huge rally of more than 1000 points from 10500 levels, Nifty daily chart finally showing some signs of weakness.

Nifty showed a bearish engulf pattern last week, after which it again tried to create yet another high on Friday, however was not successful in breaching the 11760 mark. And today there is yet another bearish engulf candle and a sizable red candle on the daily chart, which means, clearly bears are making their presence felt. Nifty also broke 10639 mark today, there by creating a lower bottom.

So,

1. Nifty has given a Bearish Engulf set up on 28&29 August
2. Another bearish engulf pattern today
3. Broken the immediate support near 11639
4. Created a lower top lower bottom formation on daily charts

This is surely a cautious signal for bulls and any mid term longs should be held with tight trailing stops.

At the current price of 11639, the near term bias looks negative now with targets near 11590-11530-11480 and with resistance (stops) above the life time highs of 11760-10770. The short term bias only becomes bearish if Nifty sustains below 11480.

Traders are advised to take positions accordingly for preferred time frames.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Laaaaaao Bazaaar, Nifty Saade 11 Hajaaaar - New Life high

Update - 

Andhra bank... Book profit of around 6.5%,  near 34.5, initiated near 32.4
Castrol ... Book small 1% profit near 159...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bull Hai ke maanta Nahi ! ! !

Hi All,

Laaaaaaao Bazaaaaar Nifty Sava 11 Hajaaaar

The bullish leg, which started after the bottom near 10550, continued strong and now Nifty is at a Life time high.....

The longs initiated near 10630, which were trailing with a stop below 10900, are still on, and the short position was not initiated as markets never broke the 10900 levels.

Looks like the now the next pit stop for bulls can be around 10400-10550, the target based on Symmetrical Continuation Triangle mentioned in the earlier post.

However, as the talk on the Dalal street goes, though markets are at All time high, hopes are at all time low. Though indices scaled life highs, individual stocks are far away from the highs. Even in last one year, where Nifty is up by 11%, only 5 stocks have contributed to take it up by 14%, rest 45 stocks are down by 3%, which is not a good sign at all. Also, Nifty upmove is not strongly backed by corporate numbers, and as a result Nifty is trading at high / costlier PE multiples.

However these deviations are a part of the game and surely not a reason to short for chartists. The long initiated earlier can now be held with a trail stop loss below 11150.

As usual, will advise traders to not get caught in the fight between Bulls and Bears and trade with strong chart confirmations with strict stop losses.

#MarketUpdate - Bulls might halt journey so far, it's a Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted in the previous post, it's better to play safe after a nice bounce of almost 5%, and accordingly Nifty rose strongly yesterday, however took resistance near the life time high area of 11069 to 11172.

Moreover, Nifty has created a Shooting Star pattern on daily charts, which is bearish in nature, hence the gap up support near 10970-11000 becomes very crucial for bears, if prices sustain below the same, or may be 10940 levels, one can expect Nifty to drift down further. In fact today, it gave all its gains in the morning trades and went in to negative territory, however took support near the gap up window of 10999. (Chart below for illustration)

Long positions created (partial holdings) near 10630 (based on Bullish separating Lines pattern on daily chart) can be no trailed with a stop loss below 10900 levels.

In a nutshell, I would reiterate what we discussed in the last post about, BULLS, BEARS and PIGS. So let's try not to be too greedy about markets, let it decide its further trend, and then participate accordingly, till then be with proper money management....

Cheers

Happy Weekend!!!

#MarketUpdate - Love Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

A different heading for the post right?, will tell you at the end why I named it like this....

However, as posted earlier last week in Ray of Hopes for Bulls, though expected a small bounce from 10630 levels, Nifty witnessed a sharp bounce of around 3%, thanks to Bullish separating lines, Supertrend support, Hourly Hammer and daily trend line support.

On the daily charts, Nifty is showing a breakout of the Triangle mentioned few days back (similar to ascending triangle, which is Bullish), and the target for the same can be near 11350-11400, which means a Life time high for Nifty. Refer the image...

So, as per that, those who are already long near 10630, as advised earlier, can continue their positions, with a trailed stop to 10795. However a fresh long position now, would not be advisable, as I personally feel, Triangles are good,  but only as a postmortem, as lot of times one needs to adjust the lines as per the movements (even the earlier post triangle had to be adjusted now), and usually prices tend to retrace back to the lines.

So any longs now should only be on dips, provided there is a supporting bullish evidence for it.

However, Nifty closing above the prior top of 10929.2, is a bullish sign, but importantly it should sustain these levels. Next pit stop for bulls can be near the psychological mark of 11k and then the resistances can be 11060-11125 and finally 11171-11200 which is the Life time high.

On the lower side supports would be near 10910-10860-10800-10710-10600 and 10550...

Now you would wonder, as to why I name this post as Love Triangle, that's because, as they say....

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered, 

which means, the in fight of bulls and bears, participants with excessive greed, usually get slaughtered..., hence advise you all to trade with strict stop loss and dont trade with a supportive confirmation, either bullish / bearish

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Ray of hopes for Bulls ! ! !

Update - 11.35 AM 3rd July 2018...

As expected.... bulls got a small bounce of around 70-80 basis points in Nifty, conservatively one can book part profits and trail stop loss near cost....

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Next pit stop... 10550 ! ! !

Update, 28th June 2018 @ 1600 houes

Target of 10550, almost achieved with the low of the day at 10557.

On, hourly charts, Nifty has given a Bullish Hammer, and prices should sustain above 10620-25 to see a bounce. Will update the blog, if there is good near term buying opportunity.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Buyers peep out of a Window . . .

Hi All,

As expected in the earlier post, Shooting Star... Ready to Fall?, After drifting down below 10770, (the low of Shooting Star like bearish candle on the weekly chart), Nifty quickly drifted down to crucial 10700 levels.

Looks like Nifty took support in the range of 10670-10710 (Upward trend line support, upward gap support, 61.8% retracement of the last rally from 10550 to 10900).

Moreover, on 19th June when Nifty drifted down to 10700 levels, hourly charts showed as couple of bullish patterns (Harami & Hammer coupled with a RSI divergence) which would have given a near term long entry above 10740-10750, however with a very small upside of 10790 to 10800.

Nifty, though not after a sustained downtrend which is advised, had created a Bullish Harami Pattern and going forward, will face resistance near 10800-10840-10870-10900-10930, where as supports will continue to be near 10700-10660-10610-10550.

The bias continues to be indecisive, and traders are advised to keep strict stop losses as per the resistances and supports mentioned above for short or long positions respectively.

One sign of concern crops up on hourly charts, as if Nifty breaks the crucial supports near 10660-10700, it would then break a neckline of a probable Head and Shoulder Pattern, which might target Nifty, even below the earlier mentioned levels of 10550 in last post.
(Please see the chart below for reference)

On the higher side, bulls can only take full control above 10930-10950, and then target, may be the life time high, probability of this however might be low on account of absence of any positive trigger in domestic / global markets. 10840-50 becomes a key level for intraday to be taken out for bulls to proceed further...

Traders are advised to trade in these sideways environment with strict stop losses..

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ..... Ready to Fall?

Hi All,

As expected in the previous #MarketUpdate post, Nifty, after breaking out of the triangle rallied till 10900 levels, but failed to cross the important mark of 10930-10950, which was the weekly significant top.

Markets were giving mixed signals leading to the indecisive bias, and it now continued with one more signal on daily charts, a Shooting Star Candlestick Chat pattern, which has bearish implications. So if Nifty breaks and sustains below the supports of 10760-10750, it might drift down quickly to next near term supports near 10690-10700, and breaking this level will take Nifty towards 10550 mark. Even the upward trend line for the probable Ascending Triangle would be near 10650-10670, hence that area becomes very crucial to decide the upcoming mood.

For Bulls, there is an upward gap on daily charts from  10698 to 10709, which should act as a strong support zone on closing basis, a close below that level may lead Nifty to lower levels mentioned above.

Plan of action will be short below the supports mentioned, with targets of aforesaid supports with a stoploss above 10950...

Please see the chart below for reference...

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Now - Bulls at a pit stop / Finish Line ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, in Nifty Harami post couple of weeks back, the bullish pattern worked for Nifty and after surpassing crucial levels of 10580-600, Nifty rallied smartly and currently trading near another selling pit stop of 10800. Bulls, who have bought near 10600 are advised to book profits of more than 2% or trail stop loss.

The cautious bias is on account of confluence of confusing factors which leads to a indecisive bias for the benchmark index going forward...

Bullish reasons -

• Simple higher top higher bottom formation after breaching 10770 levels
• A strong gap up opening today, meaning supports for intraday and near term would be near 10680-50
• A kind of symmetrical triangle breakout, which is a continuation pattern
• In spite of bearish patterns, weekly chart shows 2 strong bullish pressure candles

Bearish reasons - 

• A bearish engulf on daily charts (1st and 4th June candles), though the high is surpassed, prices have not been closed above 10770.30, so, if prices close below 10770 levels in spite of such a strong opening, it can then mean a first knock of bears
• A weekly Bearish Engulf formation with final resistance near 10930 and close above that will negate the pattern and its bearish consequences.

I personally feel (for a short term view)

1. For bulls, any sizable upside can be expected only above 10930-950 levels.  

2. For bears to take control, firstly a close below 10770 will be a welcome move followed by break of 10680 levels to close the bullish gap and finally a convincing breach of 10550-540 levels to give a lower bottom formation.

My personal bias still remains bullish (thanks to higher top higher bottom) but fresh additions to be only done above the key resistances of 10800-10930. hence those who bought Nifty based on Harami pattern, can stay long after booking small profits and trailing stop loss to cost

Cheers - 

Chart for illustrations - 

#MarketUpdate - Nifty Harami .... Wait not a Bad word....

Hi All,

Did not use any bad word for the title of the post, it is a bullish pattern which is formed on the chart..

As mentioned in the earlier post, Leee Bazaar, Nifty saade 10 Hajaar, Nifty almost reached the pit stop of 10370-10400.

However, at least looks like that markets have given a ray of hope for bulls by creating a Bullish Harami Pattern, which suggest there can be an upmove also, Nifty took support near 50% mark of the entire rally from 9950-10900.

However, I am still not fully convinced for a bounce, as Harami is not as stronger as some of the other patterns like, Hammer / Engulf, etc and more importantly, though index have bounced back by almost 100 points from today's low, the market depth was not supporting this move where declines were more than advances, which, particularly after such a bounce back, is not a good sign (usually a strong pull back in prices should be accompanied by strong advancing stocks).

Going forward, I suggest, any long position to be entered only after one more valid bullish confirmation, even on the hourly charts may be, and an upmove can be visible above 10570-1580 levels.

Areas to watch out for Nifty -

Supports - 10440-10400-10380-10320-10250-10150
Resistances - 10560-10580-10620-10680-10730-10800-10930

Cheers,

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Leeee Bazaar Nifty Saade 10 Hajaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier post on Bears Fight Out ! ! !, the markets gave off after breaching 10780 levels and tanked near the crucial area of 10440-10500 now.

Below this area 10370-10400 would be the next Pit stop for bears as daily Shooting Star coupled with a weekly Bearish Engulf pattern suggests more pain in the markets. Even a close below 10584, the Super trend indicator changed to red on daily chart suggesting a start of a down trend as the change is also supported by price closing below the lower Bollinger band

There is no sign of respite for the bulls as of now and going long does not make any sense on account of lack of any material bullish signal.

Today's price action should be crucial and I feel a last chance for bulls to fight back. If yesterday's low and the support area mentioned earlier is not violated and Nifty gains / sustains an upward momentum, bulls can be in a position to take control, till then not at all advisable to be on the long side... An intraday level to watch out for bulls would be 10550-10580, above that Nifty might gain momentum...

Levels to watch out for short to mid term - 

Supports - 1040-10440-10380-10320-10250-10150 (based on retracements as there are no major price bottoms till 9950)

Resistances - 10620 - 10680-10730- 10800- 10930

#MarketUpdate - Bears fight out ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in yesterday's post, after breaking 10780-10760, the bulls gave it off completely and Nifty fell below the 10600 levels.

Now, on daily charts, Nifty has created a Lower top, lower bottom formation which is a bearish sign, if prices sustain here then the next pit stop for bears can be near 10530-10490...

Also, at current levels,  weekly chart shows a Bearish engulf pattern, which is even severe bearish sign and breaking 10500-10450 levels can even change the mid term bias...

Traders, who went short near 10750 levels can book part profits and trail stop losses at cost....
Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Proved again - Buy the Rumour... Sell the Fact ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry a post after a long time. Was caught up with something...

Markets have rallied handsomely, and have bounced back by almost 10% from the bottom of ~9950 levels.

The rally can be taken as a discounting factor for the BJP's Karnataka win, and what it means is post the results, which are out now and are better than expectations favouring BJP, it might be a time to cool off a bit.

This might happen on account of an analogy explained multiple times earlier.... Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact, where prices anticipate the outcome of an event in advance and move in the direction of the expectation, only to do reverse after the actual outcome.

Also, today's high near 10910 is the 78.6% retracement for the entire fall from 11200 to 9950, and hence the last resort for bears to strike back, at least for a short period of time. Nifty closed near 10800 levels, and the daily chart shows a Shooting Star like pattern, which is bearish in nature. (Please refer the chart below)

Traders need to wait and watch for tomorrow to take further action. Today's low becomes crucial support support and Nifty sustaining below 10780-10760 can take it further down till 10680-10600.

With the simple Dow theory tenants, a move below 10600 will create a lower bottom on daily charts triggering even a short term bearishness...

Cheers

Hrishi

Market Update - Short Nifty ! ! !

Update on 13th April 2017

Please exit Nifty

#MarketUpdate - Leeeeeeee Bazaaaaaaar ... Welcome 10 Hajaaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry for the late update.

But as we have been discussing, Nifty broke the bulls and achieved our predicted target of 10000... However, gave a strong bounce of around 200 points from the bottom of 9950....

The bias still remains negative, with plan of action being sell on rise. any meaning full upside from hereon is only possible above 10230-10250 levels. 200 DSMA (Daily Simple Moving Average) is near 10114 and 40 WSMA (Weekly) is near 10210, a sustained close above these levels could mean a possible trend reversal.

Till then the important levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10130-10090-10040-10000-9940
Resistance - 10210-10250-10350-10450-10500

From the time Nifty created a Life time high near 11171, it has been creating a series of Lower Tops-Lower Bottoms, so 10227.30 level becomes very crucial as it is the recent top on daily charts (21st Mar 2018).

Hence, risky traders can go short with a stop loss above 10250 (based on daily price top and daily & weekly Moving Average resistance)

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - It's a Hat-Trick ! ! !

Hi All,

Once again markets proved, that "Price discounts everything"

On 12th March, Nifty rose by almost 200 points, thanks to global optimism and some short term bullish indicators (Hammer pattern) on daily charts and post markets hours, positive key Economic data surprised markets.

Adhering to a popular market analogy of "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact", Nifty gained marginally on the next day, and closed almost flat, thus giving a selling pressure candle on daily charts near the resistances mentioned in earlier post, which was followed by 3 consecutive wins by bears, today's massive fall of 165 being the most comprehensive of all.

After flirting with the critical resistance of 10460 on 13th March, for less than an hour (high of 10478), Nifty could not sustain higher levels and traded with the negative bias for last two days, around 1% lower than the recent high of 10478, today, bears comprehensively ruled the markets for almost the entire day, and hammered bulls by closing negative by more than 1.5%.

Going forward, the earlier mentioned supports near 10140-10070-10000 will be the next pit stop for bears, and hell might break loose, below the 10k mark as the next targets can be as scary as 9800-9600-9300....

On the higher side, a short term respite for bulls only and only if the recent high of 10478 is surpassed and sustained...

Cheers !!!

Have a great weekend....

#MarketUpdate - SHORT Term gain, MID term Pain...

Update @ 5.45 PM :

Both the key economic data, IIP and Inflation, surprised positively...

Guess today's rally was discontinued this....

Let's see if we get a repeat of Buy the Rumour ... Sell the Fact tomorrow....

Cheers....