Hi All,
I have already discussed various scenarios of what can happen in the earlier post, Prelims cracked...
However, my personal view is....
1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)
2. If the actual numbers are below exit poll expectations, but NDA in comfortable majority, a small spike in the markets, that too may not be more than 12000 for Nifty, but based on Buy the Rumour Sell the fact analogy, there will be a SHARP correction...
3. Numbers less than expectations, and NDA short of 272 (up to 200-250), more than the knee jerk reaction, markets can be in corrective mode, and the ultimatum would be the government formation, which might take few days...
4. NDA seats less than 200, we can even expect a blood bath, and like 2004, one can not rule out a fall worth 5 - 10% or even more....
5. Also, importantly, unlike the quarterly results / budget session, which lasts for few minutes to may be an hour or so, this event might last longer for around 2 to 4 hours, i.e. till 1.00 PM, or even more than that, hence a huge volatility can be expected during the trading sessions, hence an at most cautiousness by traders is advised
Needless to say that, for any of the scenario, I strongly feel, a sharp fall either during or post the event is very likely....
Let's Wait and Watch ! ! !
I have already discussed various scenarios of what can happen in the earlier post, Prelims cracked...
However, my personal view is....
1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)
2. If the actual numbers are below exit poll expectations, but NDA in comfortable majority, a small spike in the markets, that too may not be more than 12000 for Nifty, but based on Buy the Rumour Sell the fact analogy, there will be a SHARP correction...
3. Numbers less than expectations, and NDA short of 272 (up to 200-250), more than the knee jerk reaction, markets can be in corrective mode, and the ultimatum would be the government formation, which might take few days...
4. NDA seats less than 200, we can even expect a blood bath, and like 2004, one can not rule out a fall worth 5 - 10% or even more....
5. Also, importantly, unlike the quarterly results / budget session, which lasts for few minutes to may be an hour or so, this event might last longer for around 2 to 4 hours, i.e. till 1.00 PM, or even more than that, hence a huge volatility can be expected during the trading sessions, hence an at most cautiousness by traders is advised
Needless to say that, for any of the scenario, I strongly feel, a sharp fall either during or post the event is very likely....
Let's Wait and Watch ! ! !
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