#MarketUpdate - Nothing seems to be right... Look Left.... #Technicals

Update end of the day - Please refer the next post






Update - 3.00 PM 11th December 2018

Good to see Nifty holding on to the bounce back strongly and is currently marching towards the upper end of the resistance mentioned near 10570. Now the crucial level is 10610....

On successfully surpassing the hurdle the next stop for bulls can be 10660-10730....

Cheers

Hrishi

Update - 11.45 AM 11th December 2018

As expected, markets yet again proved the "Buy the Rumour, sell the Fact analogy" and bounced back sharply after the initial gap down. Nifty hit a low just above the support mentioned yesterday, and bounced back by almost 180 points from thereon, and currently trades near 10510.

However, it would be too early to call for an action right now, given the fact that 2 key states are approaching towards a hung assembly and government formation will take some time there.

As per my personal view stated yesterday, bulls have been saved, at least till now, by politics. Though it was a flop show for incumbent BJP in Chhattisgarh, a better than expected performance by them in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh saved the battle at least till now.

Lets wait and watch... 

Nifty should take out and sustain above the 10520-10570 mark for bulls to gain more power. On the lower side, 10440-10360-10330 will act as key supports

Cheers

Hrishi

Hi All,

Thanks to the Bullish Island pattern (as mentioned in the earlier post) followed by a Bullish Separating Candle pattern on 29th Oct, Nifty saw a bottom near psychological mark of 10k and by creating higher tops and higher bottoms, bounced back by almost 9% to 10940, retracing almost 50% of the entire fall.

However, it broke the level of 10489, and created a lower bottom on daily chart which is a bearish sign. Now, 10400 to 10440 are very crucial levels for Nifty which will.decide the upcoming trend. The trend below the said levels will be down with supports near 10330-10100-10000-9950. Even a close below 10480 could do the job for bears

Also, Markets would be burdened with a lot of events this week, Fed meet, India Assembly results tomorrow, and nothing seems to be in favour of Bulls.

Importantly the Assembly results, which are expected to be negative as the exit polls suggested not a clear win for BJP in any of the 3 states currently ruled by them, are factored in and the recent fall discounted the event.

The news which came in just now post market, about #RBI governor stepping down came as an anticipated surprise and will surely dent the prices tomorrow.

Usually the month of December is treated as a muted month due to global holidays for Christmas and New Year and on top of it, nothing seems to be working with the series of events with negative outcomes. All this does not auger well for Dalal Street.

Also, as they say about Technical Analysis, when nothing is right, look left (to see charts), and this time even that is showing any respite for bulls as of now.

On account of the series of events lined up, Traders are advised to trade but with strict targets and stop losses as bourses are expected to be very volatile.

Will keep updating the blog moment I get any further confirmation, till then it's better to stay on the short side, with short term SL above 10600 and mid term SL above 10950. (Please check the risk reward scenario based on supports mentioned above)

The only savior for bulls is, based on the "Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact" analogy, if today's fall was discounting of all the bad events of Assembly election outcomes and stepping down of #RBI Governor, or the poll results are in favour of Bulls and market bottoms out tomorrow, hence trade with a higher caution tomorrow.....

My personal take -

If there is no bounce back recovery in a day or two then, RIP even the 10k levels.... Though I feel there should be a rally tomorrow based on buy the rumour sell the fact, needless to mention don't trade without any bullish evidences on intra day hourly charts...

Cheers

Hrishi