#MarketUpdate - Uncomfortable at the top !

Update - 16th Dec 05.30 PM

Though, Nifty gaped up at the opening, it did not sustain those levels and gave off substantially from the top.

After today's action, Nifty created a Dark Cloud cover Pattern on daily charts which is a Bearish formation, and the earlier short nifty view is intact with stop loss above the highs. The downward move would be accelerated if Nifty sustains below 12040-12000... the targets would be 11940-11850

 Cheers!!!

Inter market Divergence. ...

Update - 26th November, 09.40 AM

Nifty didn't break the supports of 11780-50, mentioned earlier and after a lot of struggle, finally managed to cross its all time high of 12103.05, created a new high today of 12132, so far. Based on Fibonacci extensions it can primarily target 12210-12265.

#MarketUpdate - What to do regarding Infosys now?

Update 13th November 12.20 PM -  Trail stop losses for the trade below 675-670 levels (crucial daily supports)

#MarketUpdate - Is the worst over ? ? ?

Update 23rd Sep 2019 9.25 AM

Target for Inverse HNS almost achieved in the early trades... Book another half and trail stops below 11200...

Nifty took resistance near 11660-70, the key resistance is near 11710, any further upside can be possible only above this now.......

Cheers......

Looks like.... at least for Short term.. Provided we close and sustain above 11200-230 on Nifty.....

As posted yesterday, the last Ray of Hope for Bulls, the Dragonfly doji pattern on the hourly chart, near a crucial daily support, worked superbly and thanks to the corporate tax announcement, Nifty bounced back sharply by around 550 points, and currently trades above 11200....

PRICE DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING.... We just need to be capable of reading it..... _/\_

Plan of Action - 

To begin with, those who are already long in Nifty near 10720-770, as per the previous post, can hold on to it with a trail stop below 11100........ Fresh longs are not advised right now, as the risk reward would not be favourable, once can look at buying on dips, with additional confirmations on intraday charts....

Now important observations supporting the Action plan.... Followed by the chart....

1. If Nifty closes near the current rate of 11200, it completes a Higher Top - Higher Bottom on daily and weekly charts, which is a welcome positive sign for bulls in short term

2. The 200 DMA and DEMA for Nifty are near 11200-11230 levels, hence a convincing close above (sustainable) it would create a sizable bullish sentiment for short term. (40 Weekly MA is near the same levels 0f 11230-50 hence they become very crucial...)

3. Today's surge, also help Nifty breakout of a consolidation range of past few weeks (11180-10640), hence a sustained close above 11200, could target 11600 for Nifty

4. Lastly, in this entire bargain, Nifty has also formed an Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern on daily charts, and it would also be confirmed after a close above 11070-11100 levels. The target for this could also be above 11600....

5. If the litmus test of a convincing close above 200 DMA is passed, then The next crucial resistance for Nifty would be near 11400 (50% retracement of the entire fall from 12100 to 10640), 11550 (61.8% retracement of the fall) and 11700 ( next price top in Nifty of July 2019)

6. Also there is an inter market divergence between Nifty and Sensex, where Sensex broke the August lows, Nifty held on to it. (the reverse had happened at the top in the month of June 2019, where on consecutive 2 days, 3&4th June, Sensex hit  a new high and Nifty failed to do it, this was followed by > 10% correction)

The main concern for bulls now, can be a huge supply area between 11250-11400, hence fresh longs are not advisable at this moment.....

Supports - 11150-11100-11000-10870-10750-10660-10630
Resistances - 11280-11320-11360-11400-11450-11500-11540-11600

10600-10660 levels becomes the penultimate reversals for the view mentioned above...

Happy Weekend.....

Cheers . . . ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Dragonfly . . . Last Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 20th Sept 2019 11.25 AM

Thanks to the corporate tax related announcement by Finance Minister.... Book partial profits in Nifty near 11080... Price discounts everything....

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Bang On.... Book Profits ! ! !

Update - 29th August 9.45 AM Nifty @ 111990

Hi All, as expected, Nifty yet again faced resistance near 11150-11200 mark and failed to go higher.

As advised day before, bears can book partial profits near 10980-90 for the shorts initiated near 11070-11100, and trail stop loss at cost...

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Piercing ! ! !

Update - 26th August 9.45 AM

Hi All,

Nifty, thanks to the positive announcements by the FM, Nifty gaped up today, however, it is not able to sustain gains and has come down almost 200 points from the opening high of 11000.... Infact it has turned negative as I write this and it's not a good sign at all for bulls.

I doubt anyone would have had a chance to buy Nifty today, if anyone had gone long on Friday, it is advisable to book part profits and have a tight trailing stop loss.

Plan of action can be, Buy on dips to 10780-10720, with a minimum risk and follow a stop loss of 10600. Please remember, it's strongly advisable buying on dips should happen only with a bullish evidence on intraday charts...

If this up move has to continue, ideally Nifty should not break 107750-765, which is a 61.8% retracement of the rise from 10630-11000

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 9th August 2019 12.30 PM

Nifty near 200 DMA resistance of 11160-70, book another part and trail stop loss below 11000....

Cheers

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Update - 8th August 2019 3.15 PM

Book partial profits at 11030-11050 for the longs initiated near 10900 and lower and trail stop  loss at cost...

Cheers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi All,

Thanks to the warning issued by Spinning Top on 2nd August, bulls are now trying to snatch the control with a Bullish Hammer yesterday, at the supports near 10730-10800 (bottoms on daily charts and 61.8% retracement of the earlier rally), one can expect at least a small relief rally after a fall of more than 5 to 6% in last couple of weeks which also made the index very oversold with RSI being near 23). However, a Green hammer would have been better for a double confirmation for the upmove

Remember, as of now, this is nowhere a trend change, but a small counter trend pull back, the trend change would depend on the quantum of this upmove going forward.

Key supports would now be - 10810-10770-10730-10700
Key resistances - 10970-11030-11080-11110-11150.

Though, Nifty has been trading strongly since morning and has also surpassed yesterday's high of 10900, a litmus test for bulls would be to cross the downward gap resistance zone of 10970-11080.  if Nifty surpass these levels, on hourly charts it would form a higher top higher bottom which in itself would be a short term bullish indication....

At the current price of 10930, it does not offer the requisite risk reward ratio as per the first resistance, so its advisable to buy on dips and trade with  proper money management and keep stop losses below the supports mentioned, the reversal for this pull back would be below the low of Hammer....

Cheers !

#Marketupdate - Bull है, के मानता नहीं...!

Hi All,

Nifty traded with a weak bias for the first our of day, however later showed a great strength to bounce back by almost 200 points from the bottom of 10848, but again. like the earlier days, could not sustain the higher levels once again and gave off, some of the points from the high of the day (more than 100 points, but closed around 80 points lower from the top)

In this entire battle, Nifty ended up giving a Spinning Top (Read details) like candle on daily charts, As it shows indecision on account of a tug of war between bulls Vs. bears, and can also be treated as a mild warning for Bears (if prices sustain above today's high), hence it can be interpreted as a continuation / reversal pattern too. Hence, can not be called as an conclusive evidence.

Even the hourly chart today, showed a bullish pattern similar to Morning Star, and thanks to which Nifty rallied by 200 points, again to face resistance near the hourly Supertrend near 11050-60.

So, in order to expect a small pullback / relief rally, on Monday/onward

1.  A smaller evidence can be, an hourly price close above the 11050-60 levels 2. 2. Followed by some material bullish evidence on daily charts

Till then, I would say, "Advantage Bears" to continue...

So, in a nutshell, Bulls are trying their level best to fight back, but every single time for 5th consecutive trading sessions, they have been suppressed by Bears, hence the plan of action remains almost same as posted earlier.

Also sustaining below would confirm continuation of the down trend and we can expect Nifty to target lower levels mentioned in yesterday's update...

Cheers & Happy Weekend ! ! !

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Bulls के अरमाँ आसुओं में बह गये... :(

Hi All,

Ha ha ha... jokes apart, but all hell break loose for Nifty Bulls, as the index did not hold the key area of 10950-11050, and upon breaking 10950, it had a free fall till 10880 levels.

Though, there was a strong pull back after Nifty was negative by more than 2%, the same was not very convincing as markets still closed below the opening for yesterday, hence  giving a Hammer like Red Candle.

Today, in opening trade, in spite of a sharp pull back yesterday, index could not sustain higher levels, and in fact broke the low for yesterday as well.

 As expected, after breaching the important level of 10950, Nifty now marching towards its next target near 10800 mark, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12k....

Though, as shown in the chart, markets are really oversold with RSI near 22 (Happened earlier in Oct 18 and Nov 16), indices trading near the retracement level and a demand zone, by looking at the bear force, it is NOT advisable to go long..

The bias for markets would continue to be bearish untill we get any material bullish evidences and hence the plan of action would be staying short and sell on rise with immediate target of 10800-10850 (Nifty almost kissed this area  today). No going long untill there is any bullish evidence as if Nifty fails to hold 10800 the next wider support zone is going to be 10720-10530....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Hammered, as expected . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted yesterday, after such a huge sell off for past few days, markets were due for a pull back and the same happened today when Nifty found support in the range of 10950-11050 by creating a low, just below the 11k mark (10999.4).

Though indices started the day on a weak note, after really a long time, Bulls made their presence felt today. it bounced back by more than 100 bps (1%) to close in a comfortable positive territory. In the process of pullback, on hourly charts, Nifty created a Hammer like bullish pattern near the lows and gained almost 100 points after triggering the pattern above 11052-60.

However, the battle is not won, as thanks to a continuous fall so far, there are many hurdles to be crossed. Also, to begin with, lack of convincing evidences on daily charts yet, this upmove can only be termed as a relief rally for bulls and should be looked at as a sell on rise opportunity

On hourly charts, resistances would be 11180-11240-11270-11320-11370-11420.

Importantly, today's low near the support zone (11050-10950) would act as very crucial for bulls and if they manage to hold on, we can at least expect a small relief rally, but if the same is violated, then more pain for sure....

Plan of action - For all those who are already long near the 11k mark, it's advisable to book partial profits and have strict trailing stop losses, a short is only advisable below the support zone or more preferably on the higher side after a bearish evidence on intraday charts...

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Massive sell off.... A Bloodbath?

Hi All,

Though Nifty saw a minor pull back of around 100 points after triggering the entry (11600) for a Hammer like candle as mentioned in the earlier post, it could not sustain the upmove and witnessed a massive sell off from the levels of 11700.

Out of the previous 9 trading days, bulls could only manage a single green candle on the charts. The sell off was so powerful that it did not show any respect whatsoever for the important support area near 11100 (weekly support of 2nd week of May) and closed lower than that near 11085.

Now going ahead, important levels to watch out for would be....

1. Weekly Supertrend support near 11050-60, a close below which would mean more pain for bulls.
2. 11040, a 50% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12.1k.
3. 11000, daily swing bottom (support) in March 1st week.
4. 10950-11000, rising window support (upward gap) on daily charts.
5. 11000 also being a psychological support level

Which means the area of 10950-11050 has the confluence of many support points and I feel would be a the ray of hope for bulls, a fall below which might mean more pain in the offering for the bulls which might take Nifty to lower levels of

• 10800 (61.8% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 11720-10550 (Daily support)
• 10450 (78.6% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 10333 a daily bottom.

In past 4 days, markets have opened positive and closed in negative territory, hence there seems to be no respite for bulls without any bullish implications.

However, RSI has really become oversold near 26 (which is below 30), and is in 20s only after October 2018, therefore a bounce can not be ruled out (if and only if there is any bullish evidence). so shorting at current levels may not be a good idea.

In a nutshell, it is advisable to be cautious for trading on either sides and strictly stick to a rule based trading (with predefined entry, stop loss and targets) with proper money management.

Will keep you all posted for any material developments going forward...

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Knock knock Bulls . . . . !

Hi All,

After two intensifying selling days, yesterday, finally bulls showed some power thanks to the positives mentioned (Gap up support, retracement, trend line, etc)in the earlier post. Though the market traded in red for most if the day, and even broke Monday's low, Bulls fought and Nifty bounced back strongly to close almost flat.

In the entire bargain, Nifty managed to give a bullish candle almost similar to the Hammer, however the upper shadow of the candle is bigger than what is required for a proper Hammer, still looks like a fairly positive candle.

Which means that if Nifty surpasses and sustains above yesterday's high of 11582, Bulls can take Nifty upwards towards the gap down resistance near 11770-800 and post that till 11950-12000

Plan of Action - 

Go long only above 11600 with stop loss below supports of 11450-11400 and targets of 11770-11800-11950-12000

However, if Nifty breaks the low and crucial levels of 11400, then 11100-11000 would be the downward targets..
Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Bang On... Go...Go.... Gone ! ! !

Hi All,

As we expected in the earlier post, Tug of War, Nifty after crossing 11860-70, almost touched the target near 12k (high of 12980), and fell sharply thereafter.

On the lower side, the crucial support of 11600-630 was kind of broken in a jiffy. And which increases the concerns for bulls as this means a break of a Head And Shoulder pattern targeting ~ 11100 mark for Nifty.

However I personally feel, for the short positions created below the supports of 11600 (or even higher), one should safely book partial profits near 11500 and trail stop loss at cost as the gap up opening of 11400-11600 range would be very strong support, and if Bulls want to come back in to the game they have to do something right now, else 11100 looks inevitable below 11400. Also, today's low near 11477, is near the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 11100-12100.
Nifty is also trading near a probable trend line (as shown in charts) and confluence of all these bullish indications may give us short term bounce. But the quantum and manner of the bounce would decide whether it is trend setter or just a small relief rally after such a huge fall.

Couple of days price action would be very important and would decide the further plan of action, as of now, book partial profits in shorts and trail stop above cost.

Cheers
Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Tug of War... ! ! !

Hi All,

As discussed in the earlier post of Engulfing Bull, the upmove was stalled as Nifty could not surpass the levels of 11850-70 levels. In fact bears even dragged down the index to the lower support levels, where Nifty went down till 11650 levels (Supports 11600-11400)

However, yesterday's strong push for the markets, have created another Bullish Engulf Pattern and yet again given hope for bulls...

But a sign of concern for me would be, a probable making of an Head & Shoulder pattern (HNS) on daily charts, which would have bearish implications and could set targets near 11100-11000...

Hence, the plan of action would be..... 

For longs Nifty should surpass ans sustain 11850-70 levels, and could then target 12k-12.1k on the higher side. Buy on dips for favorable risk reward

For shorts, Nifty breaking the supports near 11630-11600 (Neckline of HNS), and there by violates the neckline, could mean that the index is set to target lower levels around 11400-11250-11100-11000...

Cheers!
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Engulfing Bull ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty took support near the upward gap demand zone on the daily charts between 11400-11600. After creating a low of 11625, Nifty surged sharply, and rose almost by 2 % to close around 11850 levels.

In this, Nifty created an Engulfing Bull pattern, which suggests that this upmove to continue at least till 12 k levels.

However, as per the pattern confirmation guidelines, any long entry is only advisable above 11850-60 levels for initial targets of 12k and with stop loss below 11600-400, hence the trade would not offer any favourable risk reward.

I would reiterate that any bullish move only and only valid till the time Nifty holds above the support zone of 11400-11600, so once it crosses 11850-60, one can look at buy on dips opportunities with stop below supports...

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, yet again ! ! !

Update - 12:15 PM 17th June 2019

As expected, Nifty, after rising for a while, took resistance near the mentione area near 12k levels, and fell sharply from thereon to trade currently near the crucial, 38.2% retracement mark of 11700-11720, below this the next support zone would be directly near the gap up area of 11400-11600.....

Traders who have shorts at the higher levels can book partial profits and trail stop loss at cost.

Nifty also formed a lower top lower bottom on daily charts, which is a sign of huge concerns for bulls and short term bias remains negative untill Nifty surpasses 12k now.

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi all,

Nifty, rallied sharply from the Election verdict day, now currently trades near 11900 levels. On hourly charts, Nifty has created a Bearish Shooting Star pattern, that too, near the a prior resistance of 12050 and also close to Supertrend near 11970.

As per the view given on the election day, I guess the sell on rise strategy is the way forward and now, one can look for selling opportunity below the supports of 11900-11870, with stop loss above the penultimate level of life high and targets of 11750-11650-11600....

Cheers ! ! !

Ab ki baar 40 Hajaaar.... What's next? BEWARE Bulls? Yes....

Hi All,

From the What to Expect from Stock Markets post yesterday, the first scenario played out

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

With NDA allies leading on close to 345 seats, which suggests that they would win somewhere near 330-350 seats at least, and it's almost certain that we have Modi 2.O in making, comfortably.

And as expected, Nifty rallied till 12000 mark, created a high 12041.15, and the analogy of Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, kicked in, as usual...

Nifty closed the day, down by 80 points (almost 400 points lower from the high) at 10650 levels.... ending up with a huge Red candle giving us Bearish Engulf pattern....

Now the big question is, What's next?

Since, Technical Analysis believes in History repeating itself, let us draw some comparison between 2014 and 2019...

In 2014, the result day, almost had the same movement, where markets gapped up after the exit polls, rallied on the counting day, and sold off badly after the final result.

Post that, Nifty traded sideways for almost 2-3 weeks, and finally broke above the high of verdict day....

Now, in 2019, markets almost behaved in the same fashion, a gap up after the exit polls and rally followed by sell of on the verdict day, however, importantly, the fall of verdict day is much more ..

Moreover, the bigger difference lies in the weekly context. Though today is Thursday and week is not yet over, the weekly candle, looks like a Gravestone Doji, which is a bearish sign

So....

I feel, tomorrow's price action would be very crucial to decide the further trend of short / mid term... firstly it should break today's low....

However, the levels of 11400-11600 would be very key supports for short term, whereas 11100-11000 would be a mid term support... On the higher side, any upside is possible, only and only if Nifty sustains above the 12041-50 mark.

If, Nifty fails to cross 12040-50 mark tomorrow and in next week, breaks today's low near 10610-20, that would be a serious sign of concern for bulls....

The plan of action now to be, Sell on Rise with stop loss above the ultimate resistance of the new life high...

We need to also keep in mind, domestic challenges such as slow earning pick up, need sustainability for lower valuation, slow consumption growth, lower liquidity due to recent NBFC crisis,etc and global issues like US - China trade war, US - Iran war, etc.

In a nutshell, keeping aside any Positive / Negative surprises by RBI in the first week of June 2019 ...I feel, Nifty to be trading with a negative bias for a month or so, untill the next big domestic trigger, i.e. the Union Budget, which would be announced in June end or July 2019.

Cheers....

What to expect from #StockMarkets on the D-Day?

Hi All,

I have already discussed various scenarios of what can happen in the earlier post, Prelims cracked...

However, my personal view is....

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

2. If the actual numbers are below exit poll expectations, but NDA in comfortable majority, a small spike in the markets, that too may not be more than 12000 for Nifty, but based on Buy the Rumour Sell the fact analogy, there will be a SHARP correction...

3. Numbers less than expectations, and NDA short of 272 (up to 200-250), more than the knee jerk reaction, markets can be in corrective mode, and the ultimatum would be the government formation, which might take few days...

4. NDA seats less than 200, we can even expect a blood bath, and like 2004, one can not rule out a fall worth 5 - 10% or even more....

5. Also, importantly, unlike the quarterly results / budget session, which lasts for few minutes to may be an hour or so, this event might last longer for around 2 to 4 hours, i.e. till 1.00 PM, or even more than that, hence a huge volatility can be expected during the trading sessions, hence an at most cautiousness by traders is advised

Needless to say that, for any of the scenario, I strongly feel, a sharp fall either during or post the event is very likely....

Let's Wait and Watch  ! ! !