Pre and Post - Budget View ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected after breaching 7010mark, Nifty rallied by almost by half a percentage. Trades who bought Nifty near 7010 can book profits now near 7045-50 and play safe for the D-Day....

View on Budget –

Not here to share view based on Economic Facts, however would like to share the historical behaviour of markets Pre and Post Budget....

Usually a rally before Budget results in to a muted movement or a sharp decline in markets post the event, whereas, a fall pre budget results in to a Post Budget rally.

As we all know that there was a significant amount of decline in markets before the event, one can expect a small / sharp pull back post the Budget on Monday, however, the same may / may not be a trend changer and the time and price movements post 29^th will decide that, will keep you posted on the same.

Technically, as mentioned earlier,  6950-6850-6800 (below which 6600-6500 looks certain) remains crucial supports for bulls and 7095-7120 will be immediate resistances above which Nifty can rally towards 7200-7250-7340-7500.

Also, on daily charts, though markets did not create lower low than yesterday, Nifty’s today’s candle looks like a Hammer pattern, if closes near the current levels (above 7030-7050)

Cheers

Needs to cross . . . .

Hi All,

Nifty has taken support on 5 minutes Supertrend, and after sustaining above 7010, once can expect it to go further up near today’s early morning highs....

Needs to cross 7010.

Cheers

Play Safe....

Hi All,

Nifty took support near the informed level of 6950-60, and bounced back in opening trades, currently up by almost 80 points.

However, due to lack of an concrete evidence yet, the same cannot be called as reversal and the rise can be used as selling opportunity with strict stop losses.

On the higher side 7095-7125 will be the crucial levels to watch out for and the bears can again come back with force near these levels.

On the lower side 7000-6950 will act as good supports and below that the last ray of hopes for bulls will be 6850 levels.

The only good sign for markets is that on hourly charts Nifty has created the Last Engulf Pattern, which was very effective on daily charts in recent past and proved to be at least a short term reversal, however it being on the hourly charts will have truncated benefits for bulls.

Since it’s a professional gap up opening, yesterday’s low will act as a crucial support and risky traders can think of buying index with stop loss below it, preferably on declines.

Traders are expected to trade cautious, as the next trading session, i.e. Monday is the D-Day when the Union Budget will be announced.

Will update on levels after the first hour of trading....

Cheers

Wait and Watch . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

SGX Nifty is currently trading flat to negative and our markets are expected to witness the same kind of opening.

The bias for the market still remains cautious and levels to watch out for intraday will be...

Supports – 6980-6950-6800-6850

Resistances – 7050-7090-7125-7155

For any upside in intraday, Nifty should sustain above 7100 levels and should ideally not break 6960 levels.

As mentioned yesterday, the volatility will have to be keenly watch, as markets are expected to be choppy today, mainly in the second half due to the FNO expiry.

Cheers

What's Cooking . . .? ? ?

Hi All,

Without offering any conformation to bulls Nifty continues to slid and is currently near 7000 levels.

The reason for this update is, surprisingly in spite of a fall of almost 1.5%, the Volatility is still down as compared to yesterday’s levels, which is a very unusual observation. Otherwise usually Nifty and Volatility index have an inverse relationship, i.e. Nifty up – Volatility down and vice-a0versa.

This makes me wonder as to what is cooking for all of us ahead of the series expiry and key economic events next week.

Either a small bounce on the upside or a huge movements on either side can surely be expected based on this development.

Rather than jumping on conclusions and force ourselves to take trades, let us be patient and wait and watch....

Cheers

Markets in WEAK zone ahead of an important WEEK....

Hi All,

As mentioned yesterday, after breaching 7230 levels with disappointing volumes, Nifty could not sustain above the levels and collapsed badly to end the day @ 7109.55.

Yesterday’s fall could be attributed to a sharp rise in Volatility from the daily support area as mentioned earlier, and now going forward, 7050-6990 and finally 6950 will act as key supports.

On the higher side key resistances will be near 7100-7120-7155-7180-7260

Any meaningful upside is only possible above 7260 mark as mentioned yesterday.

Volatility is expected to be on the higher side on account of monthly expiry tomorrow and key economic events lined up next week.

The bias for Nifty going forward will be sideways and traders are advised to take trades on either direction only after proper confirmation on intraday charts.

Cheers

Harami with Ascending Triangle....

Hi All,

As expected, on Friday Nifty traded with a positive bias thanks to higher tops higher bottoms formation on Daily charts, however still it is advisable that it crosses and sustains above 7210-7230 levels.

On weekly charts, Nifty has created a Bullish Harami Pattern and crossing Friday’s high of ~7227 can translate in to a some further upside for Nifty, though the pattern is not as strong as some other classical Candlestick patterns, a bullish bias will surely be supported.

As mentioned in earlier posts, Nifty hourly chart is forming an ascending triangle and a good volume breakout above 7230 can take Nifty higher.

Levels to watch out for

Resistances – 7230-7275-7330-7400

Supports – 7160-7120-7100

To sum up, Nifty intraday bias will continue to be bullish unless Nifty is above 7100-7120 and short term bias too will be bullish till Nifty is above 6960.

As mentioned, we are nearing the expiry for the month and hence, the volatility (which is at a support on daily charts) can go up further, so traders are expected to trade with strict stop losses on either sides.

Cheers

Triangle . . .

Hi All,

For  consecutive 2 days Nifty has given positive closes above 1%, which is a good sign for bulls. On daily charts, Nifty has created a higher high around 7215 levels near  resistance level of 7210-7230 which is used couple of times which as per theory means that the same has become weak and is likely to be taken out, , however as mentioned yesterday 7210-7230 is a resistance area, and it is advisable to wait for it to surpass.

Above 7210-30 next pit stop for Nifty can be 7280-7330-7370.

On lower side, after a strong pull back of around 1%, the level of 7100-7120 will be very important to watch out for and if Nifty goes below it next supports can be near 7070-7000-6950 and finally 6850.

On hourly charts Nifty is making a Ascending Triangle like pattern, which will see a break out above the resistance levels of 7210-7230…. On the lower side the triangle trend line support will be near 7100-7020 levels.

If Nifty has to bounce back it should ideally hold on to the 7000-7100 levels, else a further down side can be expected.

Daily chart now shows a higher top higher bottom formation, though not a convincing one, and therefore its advisable to wait for a break above 7110-7130 levels. An hourly close above the said levels can mean a lot for bulls, and bears will take a step back.

The India Vix (Volatility) settled yester with a loss of 150 basis points and settled near 21.30% mark, and in order to allow markets to go even higher from now on, India Vix should not cross 22.30-22.50% mark.

So, in a nutshell, key levels to watch out for intraday today will be 7210-7230 on the up side and 7120-7100-7050-7000 on the lower side, since Nifty theoretically created a higher top on daily charts the bias will continue to be bullish and buy on declines near supports will be advised, provided we get some bullish confirmation on 115 minutes / hourly charts.

Cheers

Intraday bottom formed...

Hi All,

Nifty has taken a support near the 15 minutes Super Trend and looks like it had formed the intraday bottom near the support zone of 7120-7140, and expected to go up from here on…. However, it should ideally cross 7170-7185 levels as a second confirmation…

However, don’t take any overnight long positions as markets are still facing resistance near 7200-7220 mark as expected in morning, let us play safe.

Cheers

Let's Play Safe....

Hi All,

As expected, after breaking 7170 levels Nifty slipped lower and is currently trading near 7130-40 levels. Short traders can book intraday profits on a safer side as it approaching a support area near 7120-7100…..

Cheers

Battle on again.....

Hi All,

In first hour of trade, Nifty traded in range bound manner between 7178-7220 and these levels will act the trend decider for the day. A move above 7211-7230 can take Nifty higher till  7270-7310-7330, where as a break of 7178-7170 levels can be a negative implication for Nifty in intraday, breaking 7170 levels, Nifty can further slid to, 7130-7100 levels...

So 7111-7330 on the upside and 7170-65 on the lower side are the levels to watch out for the intraday trend.

Cheers

Forming a Higher Top Higher Bottom.... Wait and Watch for 7220...

Hi All,

As suggested yesterday, traders who bought on dips for last 2 days, can book profits now at the opening as Nifty is up by almost 90 points and trading near a resistance of 7220 mark, and wait for the further course of market action.

7220, will be crucial and above that, the daily chart will confirm a higher top higher bottom formation which is surely a sign of at least as short term bottom for Nifty confirmed at 6850-6860...

Cheers

Bulls getting ready . . . ? ? ?

Hi All,

As expected, after bouncing back from the said support of 6950-6960 and surpassing 7020 on the way up, Nifty zoomed in to the positive territory giving a total bounce of almost 150+ points.

As mentioned earlier, the bias for markets was positive for yesterday and is likely to continue for today as well, SGX Nifty is already up by almost 50 points (Pre Market up by ~70 points), however an hourly close above 7150 and then surpassing the crucial levels of 7175-7220 will be crucial for any further upside.

On the lower side supports can be found near 7030-6985-6950-6910-6850 levels.

On the India Vix front, the daily chart RSI of volatility has taken a resistance near 60 mark, which is a bullish sign going forward, and breaking 20-20.5% mark could mean a further cooling off of the volatility for some time at least.

So, in a nutshell, the markets will trade with an in principle positive bias, and I will update the levels after the first hour of trade if required. However it is advisable to wait and watch for first 15-20 minutes before taking any trade for the day.

Cheers

6950 crucial

Hi All,

Though markets did not go higher at the opening and went down sharply, it bounced back strongly from the said support zone of 6950-6960...

Now the bias can be positive to sideways for the day till the time Nifty is trading above 6950-6960 levels, on the higher side crossing today’s high will mean a complete positive bias for Nifty. 7020 will also be a hurdle for bulls in intraday trading.

Cheers

And the battle is on again..... ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected yesterday, after creating a bearish Belt Hold pattern on hourly charts, Nifty could not cross 7210 mark and tanked sharply till 7050-7030 levels. And the Morning Star Pattern could not be confirmed.

On daily charts Nifty the RSI has taken resistance near 40 mark which is a bearish sign, however as mentioned yesterday a Hammer on daily charts can offer a respite for bulls so the low of the Hammer should be broken on closing basis to change the bias, however on account of lack of further bullish confirmation, buy decline strategy should only be applied after a confirmation on hourly charts. Those who bought yesterday after the market decline can think of booking profits at the opening today as SGX Nifty is already up by around 40 points. Still risky traders can take a chance of buying on dips with final supports below 6850...

Going forward, 7140-7175-7210 will act as strong resistances for Nifty today where as 7000-6945-6910 will act as supports.

The India Vix, though dropped sharply in the first half of the trading session, it bounced back sharply from a demand area near 17%, as expected traders need to take a look at the same as key important events are lined up for this month end as suggested earlier.

Cheers

A nice read on the JNU champter.... Worth reading ! ! !

Hi All,

Something other than markets... 

Got this forward about the JNU Story.... Worth reading.....

I have a different perspective on the JNU issue. Think about it.

Take a hard look and you will notice JNU drama is timed with the "Make in India week" initiative in Mumbai. This is the largest such event ever hosted in India and foreign governments, delegates and businesses are invited. Also of course Indian businesses and media will participate as well. This event will cover major investments and deals that will provide employment and opportunities in coming months and years. It is very positive news for India in this global economic uncertainty. This event is in line with the Vibrant Gujarat Summit which all of have read about and may be even attended.

There are institutions and political parties who want local and foreign media to talk about JNU 'created' issues and not "Make in India week" initiative. They will attempt to show India in a negative light. You will see Indian media go ballistic on JNU issue in pursuit of TRPs. So be aware of this and be very smart how to beat them in their own game. Don't play into their hands. Instead of discussing JNU I suggest spread the good word about "Make in India week". Once it starts trending on whatsapp and Twitter, the Indian media will move away from JNU. Again in pursuit of TRPs.

Think !! JNU issue will not create employment or job opportunities but Make in India will.

Also we can read the post of thelogicalindian.com (http://thelogicalindian.com/story-feed/opinion/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-jnu-controversy-and-the-logical-indians-opinion-on-the-issue/)

Cheers

Hrishi

A Morning star in making . . ? ? ?

Hi All,

Exactly as expected, Nifty rallied sharply after breaching the resistance of 7030-7050 mark, and almost came near to the 7200 mark (High of 7182).

No going forward, 7210-7220 levels will be crucial to watch out for as Nifty has been making a look alike pattern of Morning star on the daily charts and crossing 7220 will confirm the pattern.

We also have to remember that Nifty has already created a Hammer Pattern earlier on 12^th Feb, which suggest that Nifty will trade with a positive bias if t sustains above 7220 levels.

The only concern is that the India Vix, i.e. the Volatility Index which fell by almost 10% yesterday is trading near a daily support zone and a bounce in volatility usually means a  fall in Nifty. Volatility is currently @ 22.38% and has a support of 21.40-21.50%

In a nutshell, thanks to the Hammer and a look alike Morning Star on Daily charts suggest that Nifty should trade with a bullish bias at least until 7270-7300-7330 levels and unless it creates a bearish pattern on hourly charts we can apply Buy on Dips strategy.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7150-7120-7050-6950-6900-6850-60

Resistances – 7190-7220-7260-7280-7330-7400

Traders are advised to trade with cautious and with strict stop losses as high volatility can be expected in markets owing to the key events this month.

Cheers

Bulls are back at least for a while . . .

Hi All,

As expected on Friday, Nifty zoomed up by more than 100 points today and which means that the high of Friday, i.e. 7034 is been surpassed easily.

Thanks to the Hammer Pattern on daily charts, the bias for a while looks bullish with bulls fighting back strongly in the opening.

India Vix too is down by almost 10% and is currently trading near 22-22.50% mark.

As we have plenty of important economic events lined up this month end, traders are requested to take positions with strict Stop Losses...

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7050-7030-7000-6950-6910-6860

Resistances – 7130-7170-7190-7230-7265-7310

Cheers....

Wait & Watch . . . .

Hi Guys,

As expected, Nifty took resistance near the exact level of 7030-7040 (High of today was 7035.95) and retraced back sharply on account of a very high volatility in the markets

Now going forward, though not as strong as expected, but Nifty managed to gain back all the points lost  in the morning trades, and was able to give a Hammer Pattern on daily chart.

Now as suggested in earlier post, on Monday, Nifty should surpass the key resistance of 7030-7050....

Cheers

Why Fuel prices have not come down as much as the Crude . . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

Thought of sharing an interesting forward received on Whats App, makes sense, especially the inflation part....

Worth reading  -

Our Honourable PM Modiji has taken a conscious decision in not reducing the price of Petrol & Diesel significantly in tandem with the fall in crude price globally. Common man will be wondering how. But read the truth. " Modi Oil Policy" is one phenomenon viewed with awe by world over and admired by the intelligentsia. Despite the  fall in Crude prices from $108 to $27 per barrel in the international market during the last over 12 months, the Government did not reduce the price of Petrol and Diesel proportionately. Even some staunch supporters of Modi have expressed displeasure on this score. If Petrol is sold at Rs. 40-45 everyone will praise Modi, except a few insignificant bunch of Award Wapasees. Modi is well aware of this. This is the core difference between Modi and other politicians. Modi is keen on sound administration and not interested in earning mere flattery.
Now let us see why Modi is not reducing the price of Petrol and Diesel. First let us make a general view.

If the price of Petrol and Diesel is reduced the Government will earn applause but  there will not be any impact on the life of the common man. Will Bus, Taxi & Auto fare come down? Will freight charges reduce?. Will cost of food items in menu card come down? Will Air & Train fare come down? No. Vegetables, Grains, Clothes,medicines will continue to be available more or less at current rates only.

On the other hand if Petrol is available at Rs.40 the number of vehicles on road will just shoot up. This will fuel air pollution and curtail the use of public transportation which will be disastrous to our nation. But the main reason is not these factors.

It is a fact that India has benefited much by the fall in Crude prices during the last one year. Modi is aiming a GDP growth of 11.5% for India. That is to make India the biggest growing economy in the world. But statistics for the first half April to September 2015 shows that our growth is around 7.5% only that too despite curbing corruption and lavish spending. Tax collection was also much better. " Modi Oil Pricing Policy" is the outcome of the serious thought given to step up the growth of our nation. And this policy has earned laurels from the global leaders. Some of us become very vocal about countries like Pakistan selling Petrol at Rs.20-25.  But we conveniently forget about the extent of poverty there.

Let us see what is Modi Oil Pricing Policy. 

Oil prices have fallen by more than 70% from its all time peak. But Modi Government reduced Petrol and Diesel prices by 25-30% only.   The difference in profit 40% has been added to the exchequer by way of Excise Duty.  That is to say the Government has collected over Rs.1,50,000 crores on this count. To collect such huge amount of Indirect Tax in the normal course would have taken many years and huge effort. The master stroke is that agreements have been signed immediately for infrastructure development like building new roads, bridges, rail network etc by deploying this addition of Rs.1.5 lakh crores to the exchequer. This is going to generate over 50 lakh  employment opportunities. Cement and Steel industries are going to witness tremendous growth shortly. This will create job to more than One crore jobless people. The per capita income of India is bound to shoot up.  This is a great step towards Modi's aim of 11.5% GDP growth of India. If our growth reaches that level India will become the darling of Global Investors.  More and more projects will take shape. This will make India the most Prosperous nation in the world .

This is the reality. Had any one else been Indian  Prime Minister now, such a thoughtful and prudent decision is a far cry. That is Modi, a true visionary.

Sigh of Relief ? ? ? Close very important....

Hi All,

Exactly as expected Nifty opened with an upward gap of around 50 points and gave away all those gains in few minutes of opening. A further sell off in Nifty even achieved our second target for the fall near 6900.

However, as a ray of hope for bulls, hourly charts started to look a bit bullish after consecutive 3 bullish candles with a lot of buying pressure, also, if Nifty closes near the current levels of 7000+, on daily charts we will get a Hammer Pattern (A close near 7630 levels will give us a Dragonfly Doji Pattern, a even more stronger) which can be a bullish confirmation, but only and only above 7030-7040 levels (Markets can even come down again if the resistance works).

It may not be advisable to go short now and even it is better to cover any short positions as on daily charts though not yet confirmed, but there is a sigh of relief at least for now.

It would be too early to call it a short term bottom, but confirmation of the hammer on Monday, as said earlier can mean a lot for the bulls

In a nutshell, Nifty of surpasses 7030-7040 mark today and crosses today’s high on Monday, we can expect a small bounce to start off with.

Blood Bath . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, after breaking the key levels of 7100 Nifty drifted down drastically and was down by almost 250 points. However, as per my expectation it did not give any respect to 7100 levels.

Now going forward, Nifty will trade with a negative bias and any rise should be used as a shorting opportunity unless we see bullish formation on either intraday or daily charts.

Right now SGX Nifty is up by as much as 100 points and it is likely to open above 7050 levels. Now 7100-7120 will act as a level of resistance (which was a prior support) and a close above that can mean a lot for the bulls.

However, as said earlier, unless we see a bullish formation, the bias for the markets will continue to be negative and sell on rise strategy should be applied with strict stop losses as the IV is already trading higher, as expected near 26% mark and the same can even rise further on account of economic evens lined up at the end of the month.

Cheers...

Low Risk High Reward . . . .

Risky traders can take a long position at 7140 with Sl below 7100...... Low risk potential returns opportunity

The D Day . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

As expected, after breaking 7240 mark, Nifty tumbled sharply yesterday and created a low of 7177 odd levels. Though there was a small bounce of around a percentage point, Nifty could not sustain the same and finally sold off during the closing hours.

Since there is no sign of relief for the bulls as of now, either on hourly or daily charts, the bias for Nifty in for intraday and short term continues to be bearish.

7120-7100 is the ray of hope for bulls now.

Even 7100 PE saw a huge built up on the OI front (Derivatives Data), so one can expect a close above 7100 for this month expiry, however, in case of a convincing breach of 7100 levels, Nifty can slide further to 7000-6900 levels.

I personally feel Nifty should ideally hold on to 7100 levels and there can be a smart bounce at least once before breaking the level finally.

I will stick to my view that a weekly close (close of tomorrow i.e. 12th Feb 2016) below 7240 could mean further downside for Nifty till 7000-6800-6500..... Hence today and tomorrow are going to be very crucial for markets

Cheers

Hammered . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

Thanks to the IV, which was up by almost 6% in the early trades near 23% mark,  Markets even gave up the crucial level of 7240-7230...

Now going forward if, Nifty sustains below the psychological level of 7200 or a weekly close below 7240, as suggested earlier, we can expect it to come down till 7100-7120 levels and even below 7000 mark. The bias turns bearish for all the time frames until we get a bullish confirmation on charts.

As of now there is no hope for bulls unless there is some sign of relief on charts.

Cheers....

To be or not to be . . That is the Question....

Hi All,

As expected Nifty traded with a negative bias for yesterday. As Nifty did not go higher to cross any resistances it is expected to trade negative even today. The key level to watch out for will be 7240-7230....

SGX Nifty is already down by 65 points which suggest that Nifty may open near or even below 7240 mark, however before taking any short trades it is advisable that the markets break 7240-7200 mark convincingly.

However, if Nifty holds 7240 levels, we can see at least a small bounce till 7500-7530 levels.

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the IV moved up by as much as 7-8% yesterday and is currently trading at 21.75%, near a daily resistance of 22.10-22.15%, since it is trading near a resistance, it is the only ray of hope for bulls, as if IV cools down a bit markets usually tend to take it in a positive way, however the same can have a lagging effect.

Traders are once again advised to trade cautiously as the IV is likely to trade higher on account of key economic events lined up for the month.

In a nutshell, the for market bias for intraday, short term and even midterm will depend on 2 key factors i.e. 7240-7200 zone and the IV coming lower after taking resistance near daily supply areas of 22.10-22.15%. 

It is a "To be or not To Be" questions for bulls... fingers crossed.

Cheers

Bang On . . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As per our prediction, Nifty opened with huge gap down of more than 100 points and did not respect the support of 7350.

Now for any intraday bounce it should hold 7240-7260 levels....

Cheers

Bulls defeated . . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

Exactly as expected yesterday morning, Nifty scaled higher till 7510 mark, however could not give an hourly close above the same, hence, hammered badly and closed lower by more than 100points at 7387.25

Though, it is currently trading near a support of 7350 levels, the way it fell sharply yesterday, doesn’t look like Nifty will hold the same and expected to break that level, even the SGX Nifty (down by 60 points) and global markets (Nikkei down by 5%) are suggesting that.

Intraday bias for the day looks like negative unless there is any bullish confirmation on hourly / 15 minutes charts.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 7320-7300-7260-7235

Resistances – 7410-7460-7510

Traders are advised to be cautious, as the India Vix index (Volatility index) was up by > 11% yesterday and the same has bounced back from the support zone of 15.50 – 16.50% as posted earlier. Also on account of the key economic events lined up the volatility is expected to rise further.

Cheers

At a crucial juncture . . . ! ! ! !

Hi Everyone,

As expected Nifty scaled higher and it should likely go up, however as per the earlier posts, it is taking resistance near 7500-7510 mark and at least an hourly close above 7510 level is extremely crucial for Nifty going forward.

Intraday bias remains positive till the time Nifty is trading above 7440-7435 levels.

Levels to watch out for intraday

Supports – 7440-7395-7350

Resistances – 7510-7535-7580-7610        

Cheers

Not loosing ground . . . .

Hi all,

As per morning update, Nifty scaled higher and crossed the resistance of the hourly and 15 minutes chart patterns, which now means that it is likely to go further up. A close above 7510-15 levels will mean a lot for Nifty and then once can expect that it will even cross the highs of 7610-7640 as well because they are weak resistances now.

Cheers

War Field . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty could not cross the resistance mark near 7460-65 levels (yesterday’s high was of 7457.05) and sold off by more than 0.50% intraday.

For today, Nifty is likely to open on a flattish note as per SGX Nifty which is down by 4 odd points.

Intraday view – Nifty has created a Morning Star Pattern yet again on 15 minutes charts and also has a Hammer like pattern on hourly charts, the bias for Nifty will turn positive for the day only above the highs of these patterns near 7430-7465 respectively.

On the lower side as said yesterday 7360-7340 will now act as key supports below which we can expect Nifty to go further down near 7320-7300-7250-7230

For midterm bias, 7240-7230 holds the key and breaching this level would mean that the short term bias will again change to bearish, the id term bias which was bearish with a reversal level above 7640-7730 will aggravate below 7230 and the gates for 7100-6900 are then wide open for markets.

Traders are advised to trade cautiously with proper stop losses for both long and short trades as the volatility is expected to go up on account of key announcements like Rail Budget (26^th Feb), Union Budget (29^th Feb) and Economic Survey (25^th Feb).

Cheers

Hrishi

Star Wars..... Ears Win . . .! ! ! !

Hi All,

The battle of Bulls and Bears with Morning & Evening stars, the bears won yesterday and as per our expectation, after breaking the earlier resistance and now support of 7500, Nifty tanked by almost 150 points to create a low of 7350 odd levels.

Near the bottom of 7350, Nifty completed 71% retracement of the entire rise from 7240 to 7600 levels and after a strong gap up opening today, there is a small respite for bulls and 7350 will now act as a support going forward...

Levels to watch out for intraday are

Supports – 7400-7350-7320-7250-7230-7200

Resistances – 7435-7460-7510-7580-7610-7640

In a nutshell, the intraday bias for the Nifty will be bearish till the time 7460-65 levels are not breached.(as the key support of 7400 is broken and on account of Evening Star Pattern on daily charts)

Traders are advised to trade cautiously as the India Vix index has bounced back sharply yet again from the lows of 17.30% and now trades near 18.1%

Cheers

Star Wars . . . .

Hi All,

Exactly as expected, Nifty took a solid resistance near the first target of the short term bias of 7610 and my view on bulls need to be cautious turned out to be right. Today, Nifty even broke 7500 levels, and closed below the same significantly. Today’s fall was more on account of a sharp bounce in the India Vix index from daily support zone as mentioned earlier. India Vix bounced back from 16.48% (daily support near 15.50-16.50%) to 18.30% almost.

In this bargain, Nifty has given an Evening Star Pattern on daily charts, which is a sign of concern, however the pattern didn’t exactly appear at the end of an uptrend, so the harm may be limited. Evening Star will get conformed only if Nifty breaks 7400-7380 mark and stay there for a while. In my earlier post dated 25th Jan 2016, there was a Morning Star (Bullish) pattern on hourly charts and now we have its bearish counterpart on daily....

In a nutshell, the short term bias will continue to be bullish till the time Nifty trades above 7380-7400 levels, the medium term bias was negative and will continue to be dovish till the time Nifty does not surpass the up side hurdles near 7610-7640-7740.

Traders have to keenly keep a track of the globe tonight for tomorrows opening, SGX Nifty will give a hint.....

Cheers ! ! !

Be Cautious . . .

Hi Everyone....

As expected, Nifty is facing resistance near 7600-7640 levels and bulls are expected to be cautious.

Also, India Vix is up today by 4.5% which is a sign of concern for bulls...

Cheers

Hrishi