#MarketUpdate - Uncomfortable at the top !

Update - 16th Dec 05.30 PM

Though, Nifty gaped up at the opening, it did not sustain those levels and gave off substantially from the top.

After today's action, Nifty created a Dark Cloud cover Pattern on daily charts which is a Bearish formation, and the earlier short nifty view is intact with stop loss above the highs. The downward move would be accelerated if Nifty sustains below 12040-12000... the targets would be 11940-11850

 Cheers!!!

Inter market Divergence. ...

Update - 26th November, 09.40 AM

Nifty didn't break the supports of 11780-50, mentioned earlier and after a lot of struggle, finally managed to cross its all time high of 12103.05, created a new high today of 12132, so far. Based on Fibonacci extensions it can primarily target 12210-12265.

#MarketUpdate - What to do regarding Infosys now?

Update 13th November 12.20 PM -  Trail stop losses for the trade below 675-670 levels (crucial daily supports)

#MarketUpdate - Is the worst over ? ? ?

Update 23rd Sep 2019 9.25 AM

Target for Inverse HNS almost achieved in the early trades... Book another half and trail stops below 11200...

Nifty took resistance near 11660-70, the key resistance is near 11710, any further upside can be possible only above this now.......

Cheers......

Looks like.... at least for Short term.. Provided we close and sustain above 11200-230 on Nifty.....

As posted yesterday, the last Ray of Hope for Bulls, the Dragonfly doji pattern on the hourly chart, near a crucial daily support, worked superbly and thanks to the corporate tax announcement, Nifty bounced back sharply by around 550 points, and currently trades above 11200....

PRICE DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING.... We just need to be capable of reading it..... _/\_

Plan of Action - 

To begin with, those who are already long in Nifty near 10720-770, as per the previous post, can hold on to it with a trail stop below 11100........ Fresh longs are not advised right now, as the risk reward would not be favourable, once can look at buying on dips, with additional confirmations on intraday charts....

Now important observations supporting the Action plan.... Followed by the chart....

1. If Nifty closes near the current rate of 11200, it completes a Higher Top - Higher Bottom on daily and weekly charts, which is a welcome positive sign for bulls in short term

2. The 200 DMA and DEMA for Nifty are near 11200-11230 levels, hence a convincing close above (sustainable) it would create a sizable bullish sentiment for short term. (40 Weekly MA is near the same levels 0f 11230-50 hence they become very crucial...)

3. Today's surge, also help Nifty breakout of a consolidation range of past few weeks (11180-10640), hence a sustained close above 11200, could target 11600 for Nifty

4. Lastly, in this entire bargain, Nifty has also formed an Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern on daily charts, and it would also be confirmed after a close above 11070-11100 levels. The target for this could also be above 11600....

5. If the litmus test of a convincing close above 200 DMA is passed, then The next crucial resistance for Nifty would be near 11400 (50% retracement of the entire fall from 12100 to 10640), 11550 (61.8% retracement of the fall) and 11700 ( next price top in Nifty of July 2019)

6. Also there is an inter market divergence between Nifty and Sensex, where Sensex broke the August lows, Nifty held on to it. (the reverse had happened at the top in the month of June 2019, where on consecutive 2 days, 3&4th June, Sensex hit  a new high and Nifty failed to do it, this was followed by > 10% correction)

The main concern for bulls now, can be a huge supply area between 11250-11400, hence fresh longs are not advisable at this moment.....

Supports - 11150-11100-11000-10870-10750-10660-10630
Resistances - 11280-11320-11360-11400-11450-11500-11540-11600

10600-10660 levels becomes the penultimate reversals for the view mentioned above...

Happy Weekend.....

Cheers . . . ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Dragonfly . . . Last Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 20th Sept 2019 11.25 AM

Thanks to the corporate tax related announcement by Finance Minister.... Book partial profits in Nifty near 11080... Price discounts everything....

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Bang On.... Book Profits ! ! !

Update - 29th August 9.45 AM Nifty @ 111990

Hi All, as expected, Nifty yet again faced resistance near 11150-11200 mark and failed to go higher.

As advised day before, bears can book partial profits near 10980-90 for the shorts initiated near 11070-11100, and trail stop loss at cost...

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Piercing ! ! !

Update - 26th August 9.45 AM

Hi All,

Nifty, thanks to the positive announcements by the FM, Nifty gaped up today, however, it is not able to sustain gains and has come down almost 200 points from the opening high of 11000.... Infact it has turned negative as I write this and it's not a good sign at all for bulls.

I doubt anyone would have had a chance to buy Nifty today, if anyone had gone long on Friday, it is advisable to book part profits and have a tight trailing stop loss.

Plan of action can be, Buy on dips to 10780-10720, with a minimum risk and follow a stop loss of 10600. Please remember, it's strongly advisable buying on dips should happen only with a bullish evidence on intraday charts...

If this up move has to continue, ideally Nifty should not break 107750-765, which is a 61.8% retracement of the rise from 10630-11000

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 9th August 2019 12.30 PM

Nifty near 200 DMA resistance of 11160-70, book another part and trail stop loss below 11000....

Cheers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update - 8th August 2019 3.15 PM

Book partial profits at 11030-11050 for the longs initiated near 10900 and lower and trail stop  loss at cost...

Cheers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi All,

Thanks to the warning issued by Spinning Top on 2nd August, bulls are now trying to snatch the control with a Bullish Hammer yesterday, at the supports near 10730-10800 (bottoms on daily charts and 61.8% retracement of the earlier rally), one can expect at least a small relief rally after a fall of more than 5 to 6% in last couple of weeks which also made the index very oversold with RSI being near 23). However, a Green hammer would have been better for a double confirmation for the upmove

Remember, as of now, this is nowhere a trend change, but a small counter trend pull back, the trend change would depend on the quantum of this upmove going forward.

Key supports would now be - 10810-10770-10730-10700
Key resistances - 10970-11030-11080-11110-11150.

Though, Nifty has been trading strongly since morning and has also surpassed yesterday's high of 10900, a litmus test for bulls would be to cross the downward gap resistance zone of 10970-11080.  if Nifty surpass these levels, on hourly charts it would form a higher top higher bottom which in itself would be a short term bullish indication....

At the current price of 10930, it does not offer the requisite risk reward ratio as per the first resistance, so its advisable to buy on dips and trade with  proper money management and keep stop losses below the supports mentioned, the reversal for this pull back would be below the low of Hammer....

Cheers !

#Marketupdate - Bull है, के मानता नहीं...!

Hi All,

Nifty traded with a weak bias for the first our of day, however later showed a great strength to bounce back by almost 200 points from the bottom of 10848, but again. like the earlier days, could not sustain the higher levels once again and gave off, some of the points from the high of the day (more than 100 points, but closed around 80 points lower from the top)

In this entire battle, Nifty ended up giving a Spinning Top (Read details) like candle on daily charts, As it shows indecision on account of a tug of war between bulls Vs. bears, and can also be treated as a mild warning for Bears (if prices sustain above today's high), hence it can be interpreted as a continuation / reversal pattern too. Hence, can not be called as an conclusive evidence.

Even the hourly chart today, showed a bullish pattern similar to Morning Star, and thanks to which Nifty rallied by 200 points, again to face resistance near the hourly Supertrend near 11050-60.

So, in order to expect a small pullback / relief rally, on Monday/onward

1.  A smaller evidence can be, an hourly price close above the 11050-60 levels 2. 2. Followed by some material bullish evidence on daily charts

Till then, I would say, "Advantage Bears" to continue...

So, in a nutshell, Bulls are trying their level best to fight back, but every single time for 5th consecutive trading sessions, they have been suppressed by Bears, hence the plan of action remains almost same as posted earlier.

Also sustaining below would confirm continuation of the down trend and we can expect Nifty to target lower levels mentioned in yesterday's update...

Cheers & Happy Weekend ! ! !

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Bulls के अरमाँ आसुओं में बह गये... :(

Hi All,

Ha ha ha... jokes apart, but all hell break loose for Nifty Bulls, as the index did not hold the key area of 10950-11050, and upon breaking 10950, it had a free fall till 10880 levels.

Though, there was a strong pull back after Nifty was negative by more than 2%, the same was not very convincing as markets still closed below the opening for yesterday, hence  giving a Hammer like Red Candle.

Today, in opening trade, in spite of a sharp pull back yesterday, index could not sustain higher levels, and in fact broke the low for yesterday as well.

 As expected, after breaching the important level of 10950, Nifty now marching towards its next target near 10800 mark, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12k....

Though, as shown in the chart, markets are really oversold with RSI near 22 (Happened earlier in Oct 18 and Nov 16), indices trading near the retracement level and a demand zone, by looking at the bear force, it is NOT advisable to go long..

The bias for markets would continue to be bearish untill we get any material bullish evidences and hence the plan of action would be staying short and sell on rise with immediate target of 10800-10850 (Nifty almost kissed this area  today). No going long untill there is any bullish evidence as if Nifty fails to hold 10800 the next wider support zone is going to be 10720-10530....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Hammered, as expected . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted yesterday, after such a huge sell off for past few days, markets were due for a pull back and the same happened today when Nifty found support in the range of 10950-11050 by creating a low, just below the 11k mark (10999.4).

Though indices started the day on a weak note, after really a long time, Bulls made their presence felt today. it bounced back by more than 100 bps (1%) to close in a comfortable positive territory. In the process of pullback, on hourly charts, Nifty created a Hammer like bullish pattern near the lows and gained almost 100 points after triggering the pattern above 11052-60.

However, the battle is not won, as thanks to a continuous fall so far, there are many hurdles to be crossed. Also, to begin with, lack of convincing evidences on daily charts yet, this upmove can only be termed as a relief rally for bulls and should be looked at as a sell on rise opportunity

On hourly charts, resistances would be 11180-11240-11270-11320-11370-11420.

Importantly, today's low near the support zone (11050-10950) would act as very crucial for bulls and if they manage to hold on, we can at least expect a small relief rally, but if the same is violated, then more pain for sure....

Plan of action - For all those who are already long near the 11k mark, it's advisable to book partial profits and have strict trailing stop losses, a short is only advisable below the support zone or more preferably on the higher side after a bearish evidence on intraday charts...

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Massive sell off.... A Bloodbath?

Hi All,

Though Nifty saw a minor pull back of around 100 points after triggering the entry (11600) for a Hammer like candle as mentioned in the earlier post, it could not sustain the upmove and witnessed a massive sell off from the levels of 11700.

Out of the previous 9 trading days, bulls could only manage a single green candle on the charts. The sell off was so powerful that it did not show any respect whatsoever for the important support area near 11100 (weekly support of 2nd week of May) and closed lower than that near 11085.

Now going ahead, important levels to watch out for would be....

1. Weekly Supertrend support near 11050-60, a close below which would mean more pain for bulls.
2. 11040, a 50% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12.1k.
3. 11000, daily swing bottom (support) in March 1st week.
4. 10950-11000, rising window support (upward gap) on daily charts.
5. 11000 also being a psychological support level

Which means the area of 10950-11050 has the confluence of many support points and I feel would be a the ray of hope for bulls, a fall below which might mean more pain in the offering for the bulls which might take Nifty to lower levels of

• 10800 (61.8% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 11720-10550 (Daily support)
• 10450 (78.6% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 10333 a daily bottom.

In past 4 days, markets have opened positive and closed in negative territory, hence there seems to be no respite for bulls without any bullish implications.

However, RSI has really become oversold near 26 (which is below 30), and is in 20s only after October 2018, therefore a bounce can not be ruled out (if and only if there is any bullish evidence). so shorting at current levels may not be a good idea.

In a nutshell, it is advisable to be cautious for trading on either sides and strictly stick to a rule based trading (with predefined entry, stop loss and targets) with proper money management.

Will keep you all posted for any material developments going forward...

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Knock knock Bulls . . . . !

Hi All,

After two intensifying selling days, yesterday, finally bulls showed some power thanks to the positives mentioned (Gap up support, retracement, trend line, etc)in the earlier post. Though the market traded in red for most if the day, and even broke Monday's low, Bulls fought and Nifty bounced back strongly to close almost flat.

In the entire bargain, Nifty managed to give a bullish candle almost similar to the Hammer, however the upper shadow of the candle is bigger than what is required for a proper Hammer, still looks like a fairly positive candle.

Which means that if Nifty surpasses and sustains above yesterday's high of 11582, Bulls can take Nifty upwards towards the gap down resistance near 11770-800 and post that till 11950-12000

Plan of Action - 

Go long only above 11600 with stop loss below supports of 11450-11400 and targets of 11770-11800-11950-12000

However, if Nifty breaks the low and crucial levels of 11400, then 11100-11000 would be the downward targets..
Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Bang On... Go...Go.... Gone ! ! !

Hi All,

As we expected in the earlier post, Tug of War, Nifty after crossing 11860-70, almost touched the target near 12k (high of 12980), and fell sharply thereafter.

On the lower side, the crucial support of 11600-630 was kind of broken in a jiffy. And which increases the concerns for bulls as this means a break of a Head And Shoulder pattern targeting ~ 11100 mark for Nifty.

However I personally feel, for the short positions created below the supports of 11600 (or even higher), one should safely book partial profits near 11500 and trail stop loss at cost as the gap up opening of 11400-11600 range would be very strong support, and if Bulls want to come back in to the game they have to do something right now, else 11100 looks inevitable below 11400. Also, today's low near 11477, is near the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 11100-12100.
Nifty is also trading near a probable trend line (as shown in charts) and confluence of all these bullish indications may give us short term bounce. But the quantum and manner of the bounce would decide whether it is trend setter or just a small relief rally after such a huge fall.

Couple of days price action would be very important and would decide the further plan of action, as of now, book partial profits in shorts and trail stop above cost.

Cheers
Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Tug of War... ! ! !

Hi All,

As discussed in the earlier post of Engulfing Bull, the upmove was stalled as Nifty could not surpass the levels of 11850-70 levels. In fact bears even dragged down the index to the lower support levels, where Nifty went down till 11650 levels (Supports 11600-11400)

However, yesterday's strong push for the markets, have created another Bullish Engulf Pattern and yet again given hope for bulls...

But a sign of concern for me would be, a probable making of an Head & Shoulder pattern (HNS) on daily charts, which would have bearish implications and could set targets near 11100-11000...

Hence, the plan of action would be..... 

For longs Nifty should surpass ans sustain 11850-70 levels, and could then target 12k-12.1k on the higher side. Buy on dips for favorable risk reward

For shorts, Nifty breaking the supports near 11630-11600 (Neckline of HNS), and there by violates the neckline, could mean that the index is set to target lower levels around 11400-11250-11100-11000...

Cheers!
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Engulfing Bull ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty took support near the upward gap demand zone on the daily charts between 11400-11600. After creating a low of 11625, Nifty surged sharply, and rose almost by 2 % to close around 11850 levels.

In this, Nifty created an Engulfing Bull pattern, which suggests that this upmove to continue at least till 12 k levels.

However, as per the pattern confirmation guidelines, any long entry is only advisable above 11850-60 levels for initial targets of 12k and with stop loss below 11600-400, hence the trade would not offer any favourable risk reward.

I would reiterate that any bullish move only and only valid till the time Nifty holds above the support zone of 11400-11600, so once it crosses 11850-60, one can look at buy on dips opportunities with stop below supports...

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, yet again ! ! !

Update - 12:15 PM 17th June 2019

As expected, Nifty, after rising for a while, took resistance near the mentione area near 12k levels, and fell sharply from thereon to trade currently near the crucial, 38.2% retracement mark of 11700-11720, below this the next support zone would be directly near the gap up area of 11400-11600.....

Traders who have shorts at the higher levels can book partial profits and trail stop loss at cost.

Nifty also formed a lower top lower bottom on daily charts, which is a sign of huge concerns for bulls and short term bias remains negative untill Nifty surpasses 12k now.

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi all,

Nifty, rallied sharply from the Election verdict day, now currently trades near 11900 levels. On hourly charts, Nifty has created a Bearish Shooting Star pattern, that too, near the a prior resistance of 12050 and also close to Supertrend near 11970.

As per the view given on the election day, I guess the sell on rise strategy is the way forward and now, one can look for selling opportunity below the supports of 11900-11870, with stop loss above the penultimate level of life high and targets of 11750-11650-11600....

Cheers ! ! !

Ab ki baar 40 Hajaaar.... What's next? BEWARE Bulls? Yes....

Hi All,

From the What to Expect from Stock Markets post yesterday, the first scenario played out

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

With NDA allies leading on close to 345 seats, which suggests that they would win somewhere near 330-350 seats at least, and it's almost certain that we have Modi 2.O in making, comfortably.

And as expected, Nifty rallied till 12000 mark, created a high 12041.15, and the analogy of Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, kicked in, as usual...

Nifty closed the day, down by 80 points (almost 400 points lower from the high) at 10650 levels.... ending up with a huge Red candle giving us Bearish Engulf pattern....

Now the big question is, What's next?

Since, Technical Analysis believes in History repeating itself, let us draw some comparison between 2014 and 2019...

In 2014, the result day, almost had the same movement, where markets gapped up after the exit polls, rallied on the counting day, and sold off badly after the final result.

Post that, Nifty traded sideways for almost 2-3 weeks, and finally broke above the high of verdict day....

Now, in 2019, markets almost behaved in the same fashion, a gap up after the exit polls and rally followed by sell of on the verdict day, however, importantly, the fall of verdict day is much more ..

Moreover, the bigger difference lies in the weekly context. Though today is Thursday and week is not yet over, the weekly candle, looks like a Gravestone Doji, which is a bearish sign

So....

I feel, tomorrow's price action would be very crucial to decide the further trend of short / mid term... firstly it should break today's low....

However, the levels of 11400-11600 would be very key supports for short term, whereas 11100-11000 would be a mid term support... On the higher side, any upside is possible, only and only if Nifty sustains above the 12041-50 mark.

If, Nifty fails to cross 12040-50 mark tomorrow and in next week, breaks today's low near 10610-20, that would be a serious sign of concern for bulls....

The plan of action now to be, Sell on Rise with stop loss above the ultimate resistance of the new life high...

We need to also keep in mind, domestic challenges such as slow earning pick up, need sustainability for lower valuation, slow consumption growth, lower liquidity due to recent NBFC crisis,etc and global issues like US - China trade war, US - Iran war, etc.

In a nutshell, keeping aside any Positive / Negative surprises by RBI in the first week of June 2019 ...I feel, Nifty to be trading with a negative bias for a month or so, untill the next big domestic trigger, i.e. the Union Budget, which would be announced in June end or July 2019.

Cheers....

What to expect from #StockMarkets on the D-Day?

Hi All,

I have already discussed various scenarios of what can happen in the earlier post, Prelims cracked...

However, my personal view is....

1. NDA count more than 300-310, or BJP on its own gets close to 300 levels, markets may shoot up initially, but would cool down and have an aggressive profit booking, taking indices much lower than the high level, (Higher levels might be in the range of 12000-12200, supports, after that, can be ascertained later)

2. If the actual numbers are below exit poll expectations, but NDA in comfortable majority, a small spike in the markets, that too may not be more than 12000 for Nifty, but based on Buy the Rumour Sell the fact analogy, there will be a SHARP correction...

3. Numbers less than expectations, and NDA short of 272 (up to 200-250), more than the knee jerk reaction, markets can be in corrective mode, and the ultimatum would be the government formation, which might take few days...

4. NDA seats less than 200, we can even expect a blood bath, and like 2004, one can not rule out a fall worth 5 - 10% or even more....

5. Also, importantly, unlike the quarterly results / budget session, which lasts for few minutes to may be an hour or so, this event might last longer for around 2 to 4 hours, i.e. till 1.00 PM, or even more than that, hence a huge volatility can be expected during the trading sessions, hence an at most cautiousness by traders is advised

Needless to say that, for any of the scenario, I strongly feel, a sharp fall either during or post the event is very likely....

Let's Wait and Watch  ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Bang on Target ! ! !

Hi All,

Markets are down by more than  100 basis points today, and as mentioned in the yesterday's blog, yet again, Buy the Rumour, sell the Fact analogy, proven right.

After kissing the Life time high of 11856-57, Nifty plummeted sharply and currently trades near 10700, down by almost 180 points from today's high near 10880.

The IV, measure for volatility, though had cooled off yesterday by more than 15%, is up again by 8% today. Needless to say, a huge volatility would be expected, till the final verdict.

Remember as per the scenarios explained yesterday, any negative surprises from the expectations of Exit poll, would not augur well for markets, and hence I advised to have a Portfolio Insurance buy buying puts worth less than 5k.

Nifty is having an immediate support near 10650, a Supertrend level on hourly charts and is kind of making a bearish pattern on daily charts, Dark cloud cover, and this is, surely is the worry. However, there will be a strong support for Nifty at the upward gap of yesterday between, 11400-20 to 11580-600, and if markets sustain below these levels, it might be horrifying for bulls.

As we are approaching the final verdict, my advise would be stay out of the markets or trade with strict stops and money management (If anyone was short as per my the advise given yesterday, can book partial profits and trail stops, however due to higher volatility the original stop of 11860-70 was kind of triggered with a small margin :(

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate- Prelims cracked, Merit Class, BUT ! ! !

Hi All,

Bang on.... The age old Dow Theory Principal, Proven right, yet again....

Price discounts everything

As discussed in the earlier post of Friday, markets gaped up by more than 2%  and seems to have, to an extent, factored in a probable outcome of the verdict on 23 May, which is ideally expected to be close to the Exit Polls announced yesterday. Good part is indices are sustaining the upward leap and trading up by close to 4% now and trading a hit away from the life high.

I feel, following scenarios to unfold in the near future -

1. Markets have factored in the NDA's majority and return to power with close to 5 -6% gains on Friday and today
2. Any further leap by NDA above the tally of exit polls (Close to or above 300 seats) would mean another reason to cheer for markets and we can expect a fresh northward move on 23 or 24 May which might breach the life high for Nifty of 11760
3. Moreover, a clear single handed majority for BJP on its own, would be very much welcome by bulls and enough to take Nifty near 12k mark or even higher
4. Remotely probable scenario, (buy can't be ruled out, especially after lat week's Australian exit polls and another cases like 2004 elections exit pools went completely wrong Read : exit polls going completely or partially wrong) of exit polls getting it wrong completely (like 2004 elections) and BJP gets less than 170-180 seats and hence NDA may not be in a position to form the government and UPA with other MGM allies forms government, this would be a severe shock to the markets and we can expect a huge sell off, something even closer or similar to that of 2004 where markets plummeted by approx 20% in days after the verdict. In this scenario 10500-10000-9500 becomes visible, but predicting the actual damage may be next impossible. 
5. Less probable  outcome where the final tally is lesser than exit polls expectation numbers but BJP and NDA manages to somehow maintain the majority, where BJP gets somewhere between 200-220 seats and other allies gets required seats (and with a bit of horse trading), markets might give up some of the gains of these 2 days, and might settle above 11k mark

All said and done, in past 2 sessions, markets yet again proved that it discounts everything, there is also one other, equally meaningful principal, which says 

Buy the Rumour sell the Fact....

Basis this, I personally feel, even if the verdict is close enough to the exit polls and BJP wins with a thumping majority, this rally might not sustain, and before the markets decide the next course of action, there should be a serious and aggressive  profit booking post the event. 

Not only that, after the exit poll resulsts, there might be a chance that the Nifty might kiss the all time high, but even for tomorrow / day after (before the verdict and post the exit poll) it may not hold on to today's gains and might trade sideways between 11500-11900

For trading, a simple rule can be, since markets are trading near a resistance zone of life high, the risk reward favors a short position, if someone dares (and one should dare too) should be with a stop loss above the life high but Traders are advised to trade with caution...

Investors, should really not worry as the exit polls are not indicating any price shocks after the verdict, but if the scenario 4 or 5, gets played out, they should definitely protect their portfolios at negligible costs. Please read - Portfolio Insurance

Portfolio Insurance, a must read for an Investor ! ! !

Hi All,

This might be one of my longest blogs, but trust me, would be very useful for Long term investors. Also, this  post, speaks a lot about a very interesting market segment of Derivatives / FNO, which is a bit tricky at first to understand, please feel free to get back to me for any doubts.

#MarketUpdate - NDA coming back to power ? ? ?

Hi All,

No, I am not saying it, but Yes, markets might be indicating.

Was out of markets, hence could not post any updates for a while. However, in the absence of any bullish evidence, Nifty could not hold levels of 11250-200 and created a low near below the next gap support of 11150-11170, though it closed below the gap for a day but bounced back sharply after creating a Bullish Harami Pattern, which would have given a buy above 11300 with stop  below 11100, could not update the same.... :(

On the political front, I personally think that 2019 is no where going to be easy for NDA like 2014, and would be challenging to get the required majority. However, on the eve of a big political event the way Nifty has bounced back by almost 3% (11100 to 11400) it keeps me wondering if the markets are discounting a probable positive outcome from the exit polls due on Sunday (at least a near to clear mandate to NDA, somehow).

Nonetheless, Nifty after a stunning pullback, looks good for bulls with ultimate support near 11100-11000 and thanks to the multiple Bullish Haramis, expected to travel at least till 11470-80, which also is a downward gap resistance. Another good sign would be that the weekly candle is a strong pull back candle and 11430-11470-11500 would be crucial levels to watch out for.

However, on a safer side, let us wait for Monday to take any trade, the next week is going to be crucial for trading aspects, as the actual results would be declared on 23rd May, which also happens to be the weekly expiry.

#MarketUpdate - Bang Bang . . . .

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty plummeted sharply after breaking below the neck line of the Head and Shoulder Pattern. The target for the same as mentioned is almost achieved near 112230-11250.... (Today's low ~11255) in less than 2-3 days....

The next crucial level to watch out for would be the upward gap support between 11160-11230, traders with open short positions can book full / partial profits and trail stop loss above 11360-400....

However, thanks to the intraday pullback by bulls, today's candle looks like a indecisive candle and moreover, on hourly charts, the strong pull back in the last hour of trading can be treated positively to an extent. There is also a positive divergence which would only be triggered above 11360-400.

I personally feel the lows of 11250-11200 would be very strong and should act as supports going forward, so risky bulls can take a low risk opportunity, by taking long positions on dips with stop loss below 11230-11200, still another bullish evidence would be welcome... 

One thing to note that, the weekly candle as of now is a strong bearish candle, with no sign of respite for bulls, hence the above mentioned bullish view can just be a pull back and not a complete trend reversal...

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Head and Shoulder ! ! ! (Updated on 8th May)

Update - 10.05 AM 8th May 2019

Short traders can book partial profits at the first support zone mentioned near 11400... trail stop loss at cost...


Update - 2.55 PM 8th May 2019

Nifty breaks 10400 as well, next pit stop near 10340-11300-11220-11170 . . . . Continue holding shorts with trail stop loss above 10530 (cost), conservative traders can even trail stop loss above 11460-70

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Hidden Signal ? ? ?

Update - 26th April 2.15 PM

Nifty, up by 100 odd points, however, the market breadth (Advance Decline ratio) is a cause of concern as Declines are more than Advances

Bulls can ideally book a partial profits and trail stop loss at cost.... CMP 11740...

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Engulfing

Hi all,

Though the inter market divergence was negated, as per today's morning update, Nifty, even after creating a Life high (marginally by just 0.80 points), consolidated the day in a small range without any major upside.

But in the closing hours, index gave off all the gains and ended up creating a solid red candle which depicts a Bearish pattern, Bearish Engulf... just near a prior resistance area, which even increases its significance

After the fall of around around 130 pts / more than a %, it settled near the support zone of 11600-640, which again becomes a crucial area to watch out for.

So, very Important support for Nifty would be near 11560-11630, sustaining below which, can mean a down move to the lower supports near 11520-11470-11400-11300.....

This fall was very much expected, especially after the last 3 days price actions. The price for all 3 days closed very near to open, creating a doji (indecisiveness) candle, 29th March (Hanging man), 1st April (shooting Star) and 2nd April another Hanging man, was clearly suggesting the upper hand of bears and that was the reason the the earlier post I expected a very limited upside further, before at least respecting these bearish sentiments once. 

However, markets has a funny way of showing you that you are wrong, hence any short trade should be taken below the key support mentioned above and that too with a strict stop loss slightly above the Life high. 

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - NIFTY, at Life high.... BUT . . .

Hi all,

Nifty created an all time high and hence the inter market divergence is negated.

Also, it did not break the low of bearish Shooting Star pattern near 11640-30 so no shorts initiated.

The upside might be capped on account of important event of General elections 2019 to be held in this and next month. The results would be out on 23rd May 2019 and till then one can expect a great amount of volatility in the markets.

Also, more importantly, Nifty has surged by more than 15% in past 5 months, and hence I believe, that the risk reward for Bulls is not favourable at the moment.

So traders, it's better to wait and watch for entering in to a trade.

Remember, lesser profits / No trade is always better than a Loss

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - CAUTION, Diversion Ahead.... Fool's Day fooling ???

Hi All,

First of all, wish you a very Happy New Financial Year 2019-20.... :)

Surprisingly, the falling window could not do its magic and Nifty, after taking support near the first support zone mentioned near 10300-310, closed handsomely above the downward gap near 10435-40. And after that there was no look back for Bulls as they took Nifty towards almost a 9 month high, not the life time though...

However, Sensex today crossed 39k mark for the first time ever and surpassed its earlier Life high of 38989.65 and created a new high near 39115.57.

Now, this raises serious concerns for bulls

Firstly, Sensex is the only index which created a life high, and all other major indices, i.e. Nifty, Mid cap, Small cap, etc did not surpass their respective highs. This phenomenon is called as a kind of Inter market (index) divergence which can prove to be very alarming. The only issue is this can continue for a period of time and taking a trade just based on this may not be a good idea...

However, importantly, Nifty which was up by almost a % (115 points), gave more than half of its gains and closed up by just 45 points, and in this bargain, both Nifty and Sensex both have created a Bearish pattern which looks similar to the Shooting Star / Gravestone Doji.

In a nutshell, today's low for the indices would be crucial to watch out for.

Hence very Important support for Nifty would be near 10560-10630, sustaining below which, can mean a down move to the lower supports near 10520-11470-11400-11300.....

However, though it's quit difficult for Mid and small call indices, but even if Nifty manages to surpass the previous high of 11760 levels, we can then say that the divergence didn't work and it may continue its northward journey.

So, the big question is, are the Bears fooling us on Fools day?

I feel, 10400-10300 levels are very crucial for bulls.....

Let the time decide, wait and watch for the aforesaid levels...

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Falling window ! ! !

Hi all,

After 2 consecutive negative closes near a weekly resistance of near 11580, Nifty gaped down today and closed lower by more than 100 points or ~ 1%.

The hourly hammer mentioned in the earlier post, did not get triggered and hence a long position could not have been entered at all.

After opening negative, Nifty kind of achieved the first target for shorts near 10310. Those who have gone short below the supports of 10400-10430, can remain short with stop losses mentioned earlier.

Also, a gap down opening means that untill Nifty closes above 11435-40, the trend is likely to remain negative going forward....

Key resistance for Nifty would be the gap off 11395-11435, 11480-11525-11580-11610, whereas the supports would be near, 11300-11260-11220-11130...

Cheers......

#MarketUpdate - Mohe rang do Laaal ! ! !

Hi All,

Belated Holi wishes to all....

After a stupendous positive rally, Nifty closed negative for 2 consecutive day after 28th Feb 2019.

As posted earlier, it took resistance near the weakly supply zone of 11570-11580.

Bears can rejoice - 

1. On hourly charts today, Nifty started the day with a bearish engulf pattern on hourly charts, which clearly conveyed intentions of BEARS.
2. Even today's daily candle is a strong bearish candle without any visible bottom tail, which shows that the BEARS have managed to take the control.
3. And above all weekly candle for Nifty is a shooting star like candle with a long upper shadow suggesting a lot of selling pressure.

Things to worry for bears -

1. Today's second last hourly candle for Nifty is a perfect Hammer kind of candle which is bullish
2. There would be a good amount of support near 10400 mark for Nifty.

To sum it up, crucial levels to watch out for would be 11400 on the lower side and 11580-600 on the higher side, and a break of either side would decide the further direction.

Plan of action for traders - 

Wait for the opening of Monday, bulls can still take back the control if they manage to keep the index above today's hourly hammer low near 11430, one can take a small risk and go long, if Nifty opens on Monday on a flat to positive note and follow a strict stop loss below 11400-11430 but if it breaks the support near 11400, it can fall down further to next support zones near 11310-11260-11220-11175-11120..... However, I would personally feel to wait for it to break the crucial levels and then take the trade accordingly

P.S. - 

Nifty has rallied by almost 1000 points within a period of just a month, and hence a breather can be expected in markets and index can trend range bound or with a slight bearish bias. Traders are advised to take positions with strict stop loss and with proper money management.


Have a great weekend!!!

Cheers....

#MarketUpdate - Yeh BULL hai, ke maanta nahi !

Update - 1040 hours 22nd Mar 2019

Nifty has taken resistance near the weekly supple area near 11570-80

Today's trading action would be very crucial...

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Rickshaw Man !

Hi All,

As posted in the last update, Bears could not win the battle near the 78.6% retracement near 11384-90 and Bulls managed to sky rocket the index to the next hurdle of 11470-11530.

Though Nifty hit the 6th month high today near the daily resistance of 11530, it has ended up with a look alike of Rickshaw man candlestick pattern, usually treated as a trend reversal, if the low is broken and sustained convincingly. (Refer the chart below)

Hence, today's low becomes very crucial for bulls, as failing to hold that would mean than index might see a down ward retracement of the entire rise of last month from 11600 odd levels. So, short positions can be initiated, if and only if Nifty convincingly breaks 11400 mark with a stop loss above 11530-50... Below 11400 Nifty can drift down to 1150-11310-11260-11200-11130.

However, if Bulls yet again manage to take out 11530, Nifty can zoom firstly towards 11610 and then create a Life high above 11760..


Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Last ray of hope for BEARS...

Update - 0920 hours 15th March 2019.....

Bulls managed to take out the 78.6% retracement quite convincingly, a sustained close above that would take Nifty near the Life Time highs... Immediate hurdles for bulls - 11470-11530-11610

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - History repeats itself? 2014 Vs. 2019 Charts Analysis... !!!

Hi All,

Continuing further from my earlier post, Nifty did not give any sign of weakness (which was advised), and scaled higher, comfortably breaching the key levels near 11200. Now, as posted the next barrier for bulls would be near 11350, and today, Nifty created a high around that level. But interestingly it has created a Hanging Man Pattern, so sign of cautious for bulls.

No, as we all know, markets are awaiting the general elections and hence the volatility is expected to go up.

I just thought of putting the charts 1 year prior to the elections of 2014 and 2019. And the same are self explanatory

Nifty daily chart - PreElection time 2014 Vs 2019

As we can see, the movements might have been different over the first 5-6 months (i.e. from May-Oct), however, whats more important is that, the index traded almost the same way from November to March in 2013-14 and 2018-19, the pre election time for markets.

Please have a look at the chart below is for the entire 2014, after the election results and you know what do I mean....

Nifty post General election 2014, gains of around 60% from the lows of 2013 and 30% from the levels of March

By going by the basic tenant of Technical Analysis, The History repeats itself, and if the same turns out to be true, it is needless to say, what I expect from markets in this year, if we have a decisive mandate....

From the lows of 2013 near 5300 (previous year to the general election), Nifty rallied by almost 60% till December 2013.
P.S. 2018 low near 10k for Nifty. 

Even, from the 6500 levels of March 2014, Nifty rallied by almost 30%.
P.S. Nifty 2019 March levels 10300

Though the elections results don't dictate terms for the long term appreciation of the markets (as seen even at the times of coalition governments in 1990's) for the immediate movement, as mentioned, it all depends on history repeating itself, which means it would be necessary to get a decisive mandate in the General elections 2019.

Let's wait and watch the fun....

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Knock knock BEARS ? ? ?

Hi All,

Nifty recovered sharply after a short lived sell off post Air strikes and rose by almost by 3% from the bottom of 10730.

However, Nifty is currently trading near an important area of resistance from 11050-11180.

Today, Nifty has given a strong gaped up opening however, it's an amateur gap and may not last long if bears strike hard. Also, on daily charts, Nifty has a very small downward gap between 11041-1043 which will act as resistance. A sustaining close below 11041 would mean that the current up move only took place to close the gap.

Any further up move is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains above the resistance zone.

Risky bears will now think of shorting Nifty now or on rise with stop loss above 11180-11200....., however, a sustained move above 11180-200 would mean a next leg up likely for Nifty taking it higher till 11350-11530-110610 and then finally above 11760, the life time high.....

However, personally I feel, it's advisable to wait for a bearish confirmation on daily or at least hourly charts for going short

Nifty CMP - 11040

Cheers...

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Chance pe Dance..... Go Long....

Update 2.10 PM 26th Feb....

Book full profits in nifty intraday near 10840-10850 for the longs initiated near 108780-790....

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Sustainable bounce ? ? ?

Hi All,

I was out of town in the first week of Feb, and due to some technical issue could not post the update on blog. However, on my What's App broadcast list, have suggested shorts near 10950-11000 and for which profits were booked above 10800, which was the trailing stop loss.

After falling consecutively for 9 odd days, Nifty finally witnessed a bounce from the support zone near 10530-10590. 18-20 Feb candles also show, though not exactly, but a lookalike pattern of Morning star.

Nifty charts are giving some contrarian view as follows...

As per DAILY charts, this bounce can continue till 10920 levels which is a 61.8% retracement of the previous fall from 11118 to 10585, and above that Nifty is expected to scale higher towards 11010-11120-11050. Though the current bounce looks like a short term up move, any material changes in the trend is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains 11150-11200 levels. (Refer the chart below)

However, as per WEEKLY charts, Nifty after forming a bearish Shooting star pattern (week ending 8th Feb), nifty created a hammer like bullish candle for the last week, however, the same can not be counted as it did not appear after a bear trend, however, it's a strong bullish candle and can not be  forgotten either. Moreover, a complete bounce from 10k levels has halted near 11118 which is 61.8% retracement of the fall from 11.7k to 10k. (Refer the chart below)

In a nutshell, as a result of this contrary indications,  traders are advised to trade with caution and with proper risk management. As it is markets are expected to remain choppy for few months, mainly on account of the general elections and trading with strict stop losses and trailing stops regularly is a must.

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarkeUpdate - Laaaaao Bazaar, Nifty wapis 11 Hajaar

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty faced a stiff resistance near the psychological mark of 10900-11000 and turned down couple of times from there.

However, it has managed to cross it today, at least in the early trades which is a good sign for bulls.

However, Nifty should sustain these levels to start the next up move.

The target on the upside will be near 11150-11300-11400, where as the supports would be near 10800-10580

Cheers

Hrishi ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - /\ Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

Wish you all a very happy, prosperous and healthy New year 2019.....

My apologies for wishing so late, but this is my first update in 2019, thanks to a range bound market for past one month or so.

As mentioned in my last post, Bulls showed a lot of power and bounced back sharply from key area of 10490-10550, where prices has key retracement support and Supertrend support as well.

As expected, Nifty is comfortably sustaining above these levels, however with a lot of range bound, consolidated moves. And in this bargain, it has manged to form a continuation pattern, Symmetrical Triangle. (Please refer the chart below)

The pattern, will be confirmed when Nifty sustains above 10850-10900 levels and if so, can target higher levels of 11200-11300, even on a conservative basis. (CMP 10880)

By crossing the hourly resistance near 10870, Nifty has formed a higher top-higher bottom formation which is a good news for the bulls,

All said and done, Nifty should ideally surpass the hurdle near 10900-11000 in order to start the new move upwards.

Levels, critical to watch out on the lower side would be 10680-10600/10-10490/10550-10300/350-10100-10000-9940....

The area of 10600-10700 would be crucial for short term traders and can be termed as a trend reversal, if Nifty breaks and sustain below it, whereas 9950-10300 would be very important for mid term to long term trend.,....

Cheers...