#StockUpdate - Yes Bank... Yes or No ?

Hi All,

A lot of you are asking me about Yes Bank. Though there was a sign of relief when it rallied almost till Rs. 78 in October 2019, it has again fallen back to the earlier lows near 30-35 levels.

When it was near these levels earlier, I had suggested a long position with stops below 15-20 levels for an upside till 60-80, which was almost achieved.

Now, on the fundamental front, there is a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty regarding the stock and I did not track it in detail on those grounds (also not interested in doing so... ha ha ha)

Technically, the stock has gradually fallen from 78 to ~ 35 levels now and trades near a monthly support below 29... Back then, the monthly chart of Sep and Oct 2019 had formed a strong Bullish pattern viz. Bullish Separating Lines, however the same was not confirmed as the prices could not cross the pattern high of 78.7 in the following months.

My Plan of Action

1. Investors - Those who are holding it from an investment perspective, as mentioned earlier, the fundamental aspect needs to be checked thoroughly and there are lot of uncertainties. Better to take a view based on financials for the same

One can use these bullish confirmations to average out the position to reduce the average cost if buying, however a detailed look at the fundamentals would surely be advised...

2. Traders -

a. Since the prices are trading near the supports of 29-30 levels, those already holding a positional trade as advised to hold it with that stop loss

b. Aggressive traders can think of buying at current levels of Rs. 35 with stop loss below 29 (closing basis) and targets near 45-48-53 in short to mid term, however important to note that the stock is just trading near support and has not given any other positive confirmation.

c. On a safer side, a long trade can be initiated once we get a bullish evidence on the shorter time frames either weekly, daily or hourly as per the tenure of your trade and act accordingly

In a nutshell, levels of 29 looks like the last ray of hopes for bulls, below which the stock may tumble down further to 23-20-15 levels...

#BudgetUpdate - Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact...As Simple As That . ! ! !

Hi All,

As explained in the earlier Budget Day post, As there was a downward move before the budget i.e. fro 12430 to the Budget day low of 11633, it was expected that Nifty should trade with a positive bias starting this week.

Accordingly, Nifty started the week positively and has already covered more than half of the downfall of budget, already up by almost 2% from the bottom.

On the hourly chart, Nifty gave a strong Bullish engulf pattern on the first candle yesterday and traded straight away with an upward bias.... After the recent price moments, the low near 11600, should act as a strong support going forward, if the rally need to continue upwards. Levels near 11500 as mentioned earlier and 11600 would see a strong buying pressure as it is also a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 11090-12430 levels and hence, any bearish view is only below these levels.

On the up side, Nifty will face immediate resistance near 11850-60 mark, post which 11900-11940 will be crucial levels to watch for which is the hourly Super trend.

If the markets sustained today's Gap up opening,  11700-11750 would be good supports on the lower side...

Plan of Action....

Firstly, though was not advisable on a Budget day, if anyone has taken a short trade suggested below the supports of 11900, must close the short trade as it has done its job by going down till almost 11600 mark.

Going long right now may not be advisable as the risk reward is not favourable and hence, my action would be buy on dips with stops below the supports mentioned on top and marked in the chart.

Cheers

Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - What to Expect on the D - Day... #Budget

First and foremost thing...

VOLATILITY

As we all know, today is the day of volatile moves.... Already proven today with close to 1.5% movement already, and the Budget is not even started. Otherwise, the historical data shows that Budget day closing ranges between -3% to 4-5%.

Regarding levels, Nifty will have supports near 11900-11800 mark below which the sentiments would become completely bearish. In intraday, Nifty has opened with a lot of bearishness and created a low in the support area mentioned, near 11880, and sharply bounced back to trade currently above 12k mark, at the start of the budget... It's important to remember that, below 11800, material support finds itself only near 11500

On the higher side.... 12060-12110-12170 will act as strong resistances for the index.

I feel, irrespective of the technicals, advisably, the bias for today should be " Stay Away" from the markets, as the volatility is already near 17.5% with resistance near 19.20%

So trade unless something is very concrete to be traded upon, else it's better to stay away and enjoy the Budget in a weekend mood... :)

However, for those who desperately want to trade, my suggestion is not to short at current levels and wait for supports to be broken sustainably, and going long on dips with supports as stop losses. Still, would want to reiterate, it's better to watch today's trading session from outside the markets, as it's just a day, and wouldn't cost you much...

Personally I feel, real estate, Pharma, healthcare, banking, FMCG, agri stocks (fertilizers, etc), railways are the sectors would be trading with a positive bias... Any announcement on Income Tax Slab, or corporate tax, which is already expected atleast for Income Tax, would be cherished and applauded by the traders, respectively with the quantum of the announcement. Also, any positive announcement on Dividemt Ditribution Tax or the STT would take markets to even a new high. However, I fear, lack of any concrete announcement on tax front, may really hammer the markets down.

All said and done, please remember the analogy I keep quoting in my posts, Buy the rumour, sell the Fact... And as the markets have already given a bit of correction already for past couple of weeks, provided that we have a balanced or even neutral Budget, one should trade with a positive bias starting next week, provided the levels are adhered to.... With extra volatility, the levels might be changed, and I would inform the same in the next post, if any material changes takes place...

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarketUpdate - Budget...What's in it for Nifty ? (Updated)

Update - 29th Jan 10.10 PM

Risky traders book partial profits near 12140, longs initiated near 12060

#MarketUpdate - Counter attack ! ! !

Hi All,

Wish you all a very Happy and a Prosperous New Year...

The new is is quite not as prosperous for the markets though... Due to the ongoing tensions between US and Iran, coupled with domestic economic growth issues, Nifty witnessed a rollercoaster ride this year. Firstly, it could not take out the lifetime high made on 20th December and fell by almost 2% to sub 12k levels.

Though looks very surprising given the current geo political and economic conditions mentioned above, but bulls are not allowing bears to keep the prices low for today and yesterday, by pulling it strongly by 0.5% and 1% from the day's low.

Moreover, today Nifty has given a strong bullish pattern, Counter attack on the daily charts and it has taken a support on the hourly supertrend near 11940, which convinces me to believe that the recent lows near 11900-940 would be very important for bears and any further downfall can only be expected if the bears can sustain the index below these levels.


Supports - 12000-11970-11940-11900
Resistances - 12075-12100-12160-12240-12290

Plan of action - Given the uncertainty and the volatility prevailing at the micro and macro levels, even though i am bullish for near term, it would be a bit risky to initiate an overnight trade and advisable to trade with high amount of caution and with strict stop losses even for intraday

Cheers

Hrishi...!

#MarketUpdate - Uncomfortable at the top !

Update - 16th Dec 05.30 PM

Though, Nifty gaped up at the opening, it did not sustain those levels and gave off substantially from the top.

After today's action, Nifty created a Dark Cloud cover Pattern on daily charts which is a Bearish formation, and the earlier short nifty view is intact with stop loss above the highs. The downward move would be accelerated if Nifty sustains below 12040-12000... the targets would be 11940-11850

 Cheers!!!

Inter market Divergence. ...

Update - 26th November, 09.40 AM

Nifty didn't break the supports of 11780-50, mentioned earlier and after a lot of struggle, finally managed to cross its all time high of 12103.05, created a new high today of 12132, so far. Based on Fibonacci extensions it can primarily target 12210-12265.

#MarketUpdate - What to do regarding Infosys now?

Update 13th November 12.20 PM -  Trail stop losses for the trade below 675-670 levels (crucial daily supports)

#MarketUpdate - Is the worst over ? ? ?

Update 23rd Sep 2019 9.25 AM

Target for Inverse HNS almost achieved in the early trades... Book another half and trail stops below 11200...

Nifty took resistance near 11660-70, the key resistance is near 11710, any further upside can be possible only above this now.......

Cheers......

Looks like.... at least for Short term.. Provided we close and sustain above 11200-230 on Nifty.....

As posted yesterday, the last Ray of Hope for Bulls, the Dragonfly doji pattern on the hourly chart, near a crucial daily support, worked superbly and thanks to the corporate tax announcement, Nifty bounced back sharply by around 550 points, and currently trades above 11200....

PRICE DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING.... We just need to be capable of reading it..... _/\_

Plan of Action - 

To begin with, those who are already long in Nifty near 10720-770, as per the previous post, can hold on to it with a trail stop below 11100........ Fresh longs are not advised right now, as the risk reward would not be favourable, once can look at buying on dips, with additional confirmations on intraday charts....

Now important observations supporting the Action plan.... Followed by the chart....

1. If Nifty closes near the current rate of 11200, it completes a Higher Top - Higher Bottom on daily and weekly charts, which is a welcome positive sign for bulls in short term

2. The 200 DMA and DEMA for Nifty are near 11200-11230 levels, hence a convincing close above (sustainable) it would create a sizable bullish sentiment for short term. (40 Weekly MA is near the same levels 0f 11230-50 hence they become very crucial...)

3. Today's surge, also help Nifty breakout of a consolidation range of past few weeks (11180-10640), hence a sustained close above 11200, could target 11600 for Nifty

4. Lastly, in this entire bargain, Nifty has also formed an Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern on daily charts, and it would also be confirmed after a close above 11070-11100 levels. The target for this could also be above 11600....

5. If the litmus test of a convincing close above 200 DMA is passed, then The next crucial resistance for Nifty would be near 11400 (50% retracement of the entire fall from 12100 to 10640), 11550 (61.8% retracement of the fall) and 11700 ( next price top in Nifty of July 2019)

6. Also there is an inter market divergence between Nifty and Sensex, where Sensex broke the August lows, Nifty held on to it. (the reverse had happened at the top in the month of June 2019, where on consecutive 2 days, 3&4th June, Sensex hit  a new high and Nifty failed to do it, this was followed by > 10% correction)

The main concern for bulls now, can be a huge supply area between 11250-11400, hence fresh longs are not advisable at this moment.....

Supports - 11150-11100-11000-10870-10750-10660-10630
Resistances - 11280-11320-11360-11400-11450-11500-11540-11600

10600-10660 levels becomes the penultimate reversals for the view mentioned above...

Happy Weekend.....

Cheers . . . ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Dragonfly . . . Last Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 20th Sept 2019 11.25 AM

Thanks to the corporate tax related announcement by Finance Minister.... Book partial profits in Nifty near 11080... Price discounts everything....

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Bang On.... Book Profits ! ! !

Update - 29th August 9.45 AM Nifty @ 111990

Hi All, as expected, Nifty yet again faced resistance near 11150-11200 mark and failed to go higher.

As advised day before, bears can book partial profits near 10980-90 for the shorts initiated near 11070-11100, and trail stop loss at cost...

Cheers!!!

#MarketUpdate - Piercing ! ! !

Update - 26th August 9.45 AM

Hi All,

Nifty, thanks to the positive announcements by the FM, Nifty gaped up today, however, it is not able to sustain gains and has come down almost 200 points from the opening high of 11000.... Infact it has turned negative as I write this and it's not a good sign at all for bulls.

I doubt anyone would have had a chance to buy Nifty today, if anyone had gone long on Friday, it is advisable to book part profits and have a tight trailing stop loss.

Plan of action can be, Buy on dips to 10780-10720, with a minimum risk and follow a stop loss of 10600. Please remember, it's strongly advisable buying on dips should happen only with a bullish evidence on intraday charts...

If this up move has to continue, ideally Nifty should not break 107750-765, which is a 61.8% retracement of the rise from 10630-11000

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Update - 9th August 2019 12.30 PM

Nifty near 200 DMA resistance of 11160-70, book another part and trail stop loss below 11000....

Cheers

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Update - 8th August 2019 3.15 PM

Book partial profits at 11030-11050 for the longs initiated near 10900 and lower and trail stop  loss at cost...

Cheers
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Hi All,

Thanks to the warning issued by Spinning Top on 2nd August, bulls are now trying to snatch the control with a Bullish Hammer yesterday, at the supports near 10730-10800 (bottoms on daily charts and 61.8% retracement of the earlier rally), one can expect at least a small relief rally after a fall of more than 5 to 6% in last couple of weeks which also made the index very oversold with RSI being near 23). However, a Green hammer would have been better for a double confirmation for the upmove

Remember, as of now, this is nowhere a trend change, but a small counter trend pull back, the trend change would depend on the quantum of this upmove going forward.

Key supports would now be - 10810-10770-10730-10700
Key resistances - 10970-11030-11080-11110-11150.

Though, Nifty has been trading strongly since morning and has also surpassed yesterday's high of 10900, a litmus test for bulls would be to cross the downward gap resistance zone of 10970-11080.  if Nifty surpass these levels, on hourly charts it would form a higher top higher bottom which in itself would be a short term bullish indication....

At the current price of 10930, it does not offer the requisite risk reward ratio as per the first resistance, so its advisable to buy on dips and trade with  proper money management and keep stop losses below the supports mentioned, the reversal for this pull back would be below the low of Hammer....

Cheers !

#Marketupdate - Bull है, के मानता नहीं...!

Hi All,

Nifty traded with a weak bias for the first our of day, however later showed a great strength to bounce back by almost 200 points from the bottom of 10848, but again. like the earlier days, could not sustain the higher levels once again and gave off, some of the points from the high of the day (more than 100 points, but closed around 80 points lower from the top)

In this entire battle, Nifty ended up giving a Spinning Top (Read details) like candle on daily charts, As it shows indecision on account of a tug of war between bulls Vs. bears, and can also be treated as a mild warning for Bears (if prices sustain above today's high), hence it can be interpreted as a continuation / reversal pattern too. Hence, can not be called as an conclusive evidence.

Even the hourly chart today, showed a bullish pattern similar to Morning Star, and thanks to which Nifty rallied by 200 points, again to face resistance near the hourly Supertrend near 11050-60.

So, in order to expect a small pullback / relief rally, on Monday/onward

1.  A smaller evidence can be, an hourly price close above the 11050-60 levels 2. 2. Followed by some material bullish evidence on daily charts

Till then, I would say, "Advantage Bears" to continue...

So, in a nutshell, Bulls are trying their level best to fight back, but every single time for 5th consecutive trading sessions, they have been suppressed by Bears, hence the plan of action remains almost same as posted earlier.

Also sustaining below would confirm continuation of the down trend and we can expect Nifty to target lower levels mentioned in yesterday's update...

Cheers & Happy Weekend ! ! !

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Bulls के अरमाँ आसुओं में बह गये... :(

Hi All,

Ha ha ha... jokes apart, but all hell break loose for Nifty Bulls, as the index did not hold the key area of 10950-11050, and upon breaking 10950, it had a free fall till 10880 levels.

Though, there was a strong pull back after Nifty was negative by more than 2%, the same was not very convincing as markets still closed below the opening for yesterday, hence  giving a Hammer like Red Candle.

Today, in opening trade, in spite of a sharp pull back yesterday, index could not sustain higher levels, and in fact broke the low for yesterday as well.

 As expected, after breaching the important level of 10950, Nifty now marching towards its next target near 10800 mark, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12k....

Though, as shown in the chart, markets are really oversold with RSI near 22 (Happened earlier in Oct 18 and Nov 16), indices trading near the retracement level and a demand zone, by looking at the bear force, it is NOT advisable to go long..

The bias for markets would continue to be bearish untill we get any material bullish evidences and hence the plan of action would be staying short and sell on rise with immediate target of 10800-10850 (Nifty almost kissed this area  today). No going long untill there is any bullish evidence as if Nifty fails to hold 10800 the next wider support zone is going to be 10720-10530....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Hammered, as expected . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted yesterday, after such a huge sell off for past few days, markets were due for a pull back and the same happened today when Nifty found support in the range of 10950-11050 by creating a low, just below the 11k mark (10999.4).

Though indices started the day on a weak note, after really a long time, Bulls made their presence felt today. it bounced back by more than 100 bps (1%) to close in a comfortable positive territory. In the process of pullback, on hourly charts, Nifty created a Hammer like bullish pattern near the lows and gained almost 100 points after triggering the pattern above 11052-60.

However, the battle is not won, as thanks to a continuous fall so far, there are many hurdles to be crossed. Also, to begin with, lack of convincing evidences on daily charts yet, this upmove can only be termed as a relief rally for bulls and should be looked at as a sell on rise opportunity

On hourly charts, resistances would be 11180-11240-11270-11320-11370-11420.

Importantly, today's low near the support zone (11050-10950) would act as very crucial for bulls and if they manage to hold on, we can at least expect a small relief rally, but if the same is violated, then more pain for sure....

Plan of action - For all those who are already long near the 11k mark, it's advisable to book partial profits and have strict trailing stop losses, a short is only advisable below the support zone or more preferably on the higher side after a bearish evidence on intraday charts...

Cheers

Hrishi

#Marketupdate - Massive sell off.... A Bloodbath?

Hi All,

Though Nifty saw a minor pull back of around 100 points after triggering the entry (11600) for a Hammer like candle as mentioned in the earlier post, it could not sustain the upmove and witnessed a massive sell off from the levels of 11700.

Out of the previous 9 trading days, bulls could only manage a single green candle on the charts. The sell off was so powerful that it did not show any respect whatsoever for the important support area near 11100 (weekly support of 2nd week of May) and closed lower than that near 11085.

Now going ahead, important levels to watch out for would be....

1. Weekly Supertrend support near 11050-60, a close below which would mean more pain for bulls.
2. 11040, a 50% retracement of the entire upmove from 10k to 12.1k.
3. 11000, daily swing bottom (support) in March 1st week.
4. 10950-11000, rising window support (upward gap) on daily charts.
5. 11000 also being a psychological support level

Which means the area of 10950-11050 has the confluence of many support points and I feel would be a the ray of hope for bulls, a fall below which might mean more pain in the offering for the bulls which might take Nifty to lower levels of

• 10800 (61.8% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 11720-10550 (Daily support)
• 10450 (78.6% of the retracement for the upmove mentioned above)
• 10333 a daily bottom.

In past 4 days, markets have opened positive and closed in negative territory, hence there seems to be no respite for bulls without any bullish implications.

However, RSI has really become oversold near 26 (which is below 30), and is in 20s only after October 2018, therefore a bounce can not be ruled out (if and only if there is any bullish evidence). so shorting at current levels may not be a good idea.

In a nutshell, it is advisable to be cautious for trading on either sides and strictly stick to a rule based trading (with predefined entry, stop loss and targets) with proper money management.

Will keep you all posted for any material developments going forward...

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Knock knock Bulls . . . . !

Hi All,

After two intensifying selling days, yesterday, finally bulls showed some power thanks to the positives mentioned (Gap up support, retracement, trend line, etc)in the earlier post. Though the market traded in red for most if the day, and even broke Monday's low, Bulls fought and Nifty bounced back strongly to close almost flat.

In the entire bargain, Nifty managed to give a bullish candle almost similar to the Hammer, however the upper shadow of the candle is bigger than what is required for a proper Hammer, still looks like a fairly positive candle.

Which means that if Nifty surpasses and sustains above yesterday's high of 11582, Bulls can take Nifty upwards towards the gap down resistance near 11770-800 and post that till 11950-12000

Plan of Action - 

Go long only above 11600 with stop loss below supports of 11450-11400 and targets of 11770-11800-11950-12000

However, if Nifty breaks the low and crucial levels of 11400, then 11100-11000 would be the downward targets..
Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Bang On... Go...Go.... Gone ! ! !

Hi All,

As we expected in the earlier post, Tug of War, Nifty after crossing 11860-70, almost touched the target near 12k (high of 12980), and fell sharply thereafter.

On the lower side, the crucial support of 11600-630 was kind of broken in a jiffy. And which increases the concerns for bulls as this means a break of a Head And Shoulder pattern targeting ~ 11100 mark for Nifty.

However I personally feel, for the short positions created below the supports of 11600 (or even higher), one should safely book partial profits near 11500 and trail stop loss at cost as the gap up opening of 11400-11600 range would be very strong support, and if Bulls want to come back in to the game they have to do something right now, else 11100 looks inevitable below 11400. Also, today's low near 11477, is near the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 11100-12100.
Nifty is also trading near a probable trend line (as shown in charts) and confluence of all these bullish indications may give us short term bounce. But the quantum and manner of the bounce would decide whether it is trend setter or just a small relief rally after such a huge fall.

Couple of days price action would be very important and would decide the further plan of action, as of now, book partial profits in shorts and trail stop above cost.

Cheers
Hrishi...

#MarketUpdate - Tug of War... ! ! !

Hi All,

As discussed in the earlier post of Engulfing Bull, the upmove was stalled as Nifty could not surpass the levels of 11850-70 levels. In fact bears even dragged down the index to the lower support levels, where Nifty went down till 11650 levels (Supports 11600-11400)

However, yesterday's strong push for the markets, have created another Bullish Engulf Pattern and yet again given hope for bulls...

But a sign of concern for me would be, a probable making of an Head & Shoulder pattern (HNS) on daily charts, which would have bearish implications and could set targets near 11100-11000...

Hence, the plan of action would be..... 

For longs Nifty should surpass ans sustain 11850-70 levels, and could then target 12k-12.1k on the higher side. Buy on dips for favorable risk reward

For shorts, Nifty breaking the supports near 11630-11600 (Neckline of HNS), and there by violates the neckline, could mean that the index is set to target lower levels around 11400-11250-11100-11000...

Cheers!
Hrishi