#MarketUpdate - Buyers peep out of a Window . . .

Hi All,

As expected in the earlier post, Shooting Star... Ready to Fall?, After drifting down below 10770, (the low of Shooting Star like bearish candle on the weekly chart), Nifty quickly drifted down to crucial 10700 levels.

Looks like Nifty took support in the range of 10670-10710 (Upward trend line support, upward gap support, 61.8% retracement of the last rally from 10550 to 10900).

Moreover, on 19th June when Nifty drifted down to 10700 levels, hourly charts showed as couple of bullish patterns (Harami & Hammer coupled with a RSI divergence) which would have given a near term long entry above 10740-10750, however with a very small upside of 10790 to 10800.

Nifty, though not after a sustained downtrend which is advised, had created a Bullish Harami Pattern and going forward, will face resistance near 10800-10840-10870-10900-10930, where as supports will continue to be near 10700-10660-10610-10550.

The bias continues to be indecisive, and traders are advised to keep strict stop losses as per the resistances and supports mentioned above for short or long positions respectively.

One sign of concern crops up on hourly charts, as if Nifty breaks the crucial supports near 10660-10700, it would then break a neckline of a probable Head and Shoulder Pattern, which might target Nifty, even below the earlier mentioned levels of 10550 in last post.
(Please see the chart below for reference)

On the higher side, bulls can only take full control above 10930-10950, and then target, may be the life time high, probability of this however might be low on account of absence of any positive trigger in domestic / global markets. 10840-50 becomes a key level for intraday to be taken out for bulls to proceed further...

Traders are advised to trade in these sideways environment with strict stop losses..

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ..... Ready to Fall?

Hi All,

As expected in the previous #MarketUpdate post, Nifty, after breaking out of the triangle rallied till 10900 levels, but failed to cross the important mark of 10930-10950, which was the weekly significant top.

Markets were giving mixed signals leading to the indecisive bias, and it now continued with one more signal on daily charts, a Shooting Star Candlestick Chat pattern, which has bearish implications. So if Nifty breaks and sustains below the supports of 10760-10750, it might drift down quickly to next near term supports near 10690-10700, and breaking this level will take Nifty towards 10550 mark. Even the upward trend line for the probable Ascending Triangle would be near 10650-10670, hence that area becomes very crucial to decide the upcoming mood.

For Bulls, there is an upward gap on daily charts from  10698 to 10709, which should act as a strong support zone on closing basis, a close below that level may lead Nifty to lower levels mentioned above.

Plan of action will be short below the supports mentioned, with targets of aforesaid supports with a stoploss above 10950...

Please see the chart below for reference...

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Now - Bulls at a pit stop / Finish Line ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, in Nifty Harami post couple of weeks back, the bullish pattern worked for Nifty and after surpassing crucial levels of 10580-600, Nifty rallied smartly and currently trading near another selling pit stop of 10800. Bulls, who have bought near 10600 are advised to book profits of more than 2% or trail stop loss.

The cautious bias is on account of confluence of confusing factors which leads to a indecisive bias for the benchmark index going forward...

Bullish reasons -

• Simple higher top higher bottom formation after breaching 10770 levels
• A strong gap up opening today, meaning supports for intraday and near term would be near 10680-50
• A kind of symmetrical triangle breakout, which is a continuation pattern
• In spite of bearish patterns, weekly chart shows 2 strong bullish pressure candles

Bearish reasons - 

• A bearish engulf on daily charts (1st and 4th June candles), though the high is surpassed, prices have not been closed above 10770.30, so, if prices close below 10770 levels in spite of such a strong opening, it can then mean a first knock of bears
• A weekly Bearish Engulf formation with final resistance near 10930 and close above that will negate the pattern and its bearish consequences.

I personally feel (for a short term view)

1. For bulls, any sizable upside can be expected only above 10930-950 levels.  

2. For bears to take control, firstly a close below 10770 will be a welcome move followed by break of 10680 levels to close the bullish gap and finally a convincing breach of 10550-540 levels to give a lower bottom formation.

My personal bias still remains bullish (thanks to higher top higher bottom) but fresh additions to be only done above the key resistances of 10800-10930. hence those who bought Nifty based on Harami pattern, can stay long after booking small profits and trailing stop loss to cost

Cheers - 

Chart for illustrations - 

#MarketUpdate - Nifty Harami .... Wait not a Bad word....

Hi All,

Did not use any bad word for the title of the post, it is a bullish pattern which is formed on the chart..

As mentioned in the earlier post, Leee Bazaar, Nifty saade 10 Hajaar, Nifty almost reached the pit stop of 10370-10400.

However, at least looks like that markets have given a ray of hope for bulls by creating a Bullish Harami Pattern, which suggest there can be an upmove also, Nifty took support near 50% mark of the entire rally from 9950-10900.

However, I am still not fully convinced for a bounce, as Harami is not as stronger as some of the other patterns like, Hammer / Engulf, etc and more importantly, though index have bounced back by almost 100 points from today's low, the market depth was not supporting this move where declines were more than advances, which, particularly after such a bounce back, is not a good sign (usually a strong pull back in prices should be accompanied by strong advancing stocks).

Going forward, I suggest, any long position to be entered only after one more valid bullish confirmation, even on the hourly charts may be, and an upmove can be visible above 10570-1580 levels.

Areas to watch out for Nifty -

Supports - 10440-10400-10380-10320-10250-10150
Resistances - 10560-10580-10620-10680-10730-10800-10930

Cheers,

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Leeee Bazaar Nifty Saade 10 Hajaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier post on Bears Fight Out ! ! !, the markets gave off after breaching 10780 levels and tanked near the crucial area of 10440-10500 now.

Below this area 10370-10400 would be the next Pit stop for bears as daily Shooting Star coupled with a weekly Bearish Engulf pattern suggests more pain in the markets. Even a close below 10584, the Super trend indicator changed to red on daily chart suggesting a start of a down trend as the change is also supported by price closing below the lower Bollinger band

There is no sign of respite for the bulls as of now and going long does not make any sense on account of lack of any material bullish signal.

Today's price action should be crucial and I feel a last chance for bulls to fight back. If yesterday's low and the support area mentioned earlier is not violated and Nifty gains / sustains an upward momentum, bulls can be in a position to take control, till then not at all advisable to be on the long side... An intraday level to watch out for bulls would be 10550-10580, above that Nifty might gain momentum...

Levels to watch out for short to mid term - 

Supports - 1040-10440-10380-10320-10250-10150 (based on retracements as there are no major price bottoms till 9950)

Resistances - 10620 - 10680-10730- 10800- 10930

#MarketUpdate - Bears fight out ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in yesterday's post, after breaking 10780-10760, the bulls gave it off completely and Nifty fell below the 10600 levels.

Now, on daily charts, Nifty has created a Lower top, lower bottom formation which is a bearish sign, if prices sustain here then the next pit stop for bears can be near 10530-10490...

Also, at current levels,  weekly chart shows a Bearish engulf pattern, which is even severe bearish sign and breaking 10500-10450 levels can even change the mid term bias...

Traders, who went short near 10750 levels can book part profits and trail stop losses at cost....
Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Proved again - Buy the Rumour... Sell the Fact ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry a post after a long time. Was caught up with something...

Markets have rallied handsomely, and have bounced back by almost 10% from the bottom of ~9950 levels.

The rally can be taken as a discounting factor for the BJP's Karnataka win, and what it means is post the results, which are out now and are better than expectations favouring BJP, it might be a time to cool off a bit.

This might happen on account of an analogy explained multiple times earlier.... Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact, where prices anticipate the outcome of an event in advance and move in the direction of the expectation, only to do reverse after the actual outcome.

Also, today's high near 10910 is the 78.6% retracement for the entire fall from 11200 to 9950, and hence the last resort for bears to strike back, at least for a short period of time. Nifty closed near 10800 levels, and the daily chart shows a Shooting Star like pattern, which is bearish in nature. (Please refer the chart below)

Traders need to wait and watch for tomorrow to take further action. Today's low becomes crucial support support and Nifty sustaining below 10780-10760 can take it further down till 10680-10600.

With the simple Dow theory tenants, a move below 10600 will create a lower bottom on daily charts triggering even a short term bearishness...

Cheers

Hrishi

Market Update - Short Nifty ! ! !

Update on 13th April 2017

Please exit Nifty

#MarketUpdate - Leeeeeeee Bazaaaaaaar ... Welcome 10 Hajaaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry for the late update.

But as we have been discussing, Nifty broke the bulls and achieved our predicted target of 10000... However, gave a strong bounce of around 200 points from the bottom of 9950....

The bias still remains negative, with plan of action being sell on rise. any meaning full upside from hereon is only possible above 10230-10250 levels. 200 DSMA (Daily Simple Moving Average) is near 10114 and 40 WSMA (Weekly) is near 10210, a sustained close above these levels could mean a possible trend reversal.

Till then the important levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10130-10090-10040-10000-9940
Resistance - 10210-10250-10350-10450-10500

From the time Nifty created a Life time high near 11171, it has been creating a series of Lower Tops-Lower Bottoms, so 10227.30 level becomes very crucial as it is the recent top on daily charts (21st Mar 2018).

Hence, risky traders can go short with a stop loss above 10250 (based on daily price top and daily & weekly Moving Average resistance)

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - It's a Hat-Trick ! ! !

Hi All,

Once again markets proved, that "Price discounts everything"

On 12th March, Nifty rose by almost 200 points, thanks to global optimism and some short term bullish indicators (Hammer pattern) on daily charts and post markets hours, positive key Economic data surprised markets.

Adhering to a popular market analogy of "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact", Nifty gained marginally on the next day, and closed almost flat, thus giving a selling pressure candle on daily charts near the resistances mentioned in earlier post, which was followed by 3 consecutive wins by bears, today's massive fall of 165 being the most comprehensive of all.

After flirting with the critical resistance of 10460 on 13th March, for less than an hour (high of 10478), Nifty could not sustain higher levels and traded with the negative bias for last two days, around 1% lower than the recent high of 10478, today, bears comprehensively ruled the markets for almost the entire day, and hammered bulls by closing negative by more than 1.5%.

Going forward, the earlier mentioned supports near 10140-10070-10000 will be the next pit stop for bears, and hell might break loose, below the 10k mark as the next targets can be as scary as 9800-9600-9300....

On the higher side, a short term respite for bulls only and only if the recent high of 10478 is surpassed and sustained...

Cheers !!!

Have a great weekend....

#MarketUpdate - SHORT Term gain, MID term Pain...

Update @ 5.45 PM :

Both the key economic data, IIP and Inflation, surprised positively...

Guess today's rally was discontinued this....

Let's see if we get a repeat of Buy the Rumour ... Sell the Fact tomorrow....

Cheers....

#MarketUpdate - Unbearable Bears

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty saw a positive start and traded strongly for first half... However could not cross the resistance mentioned yesterday of 10300 and bears took control and pulled Nifty to negative territory after creating high of 10296

On the Provisional activity front, though FII are neg buyers with Rs 550 cr , importantly, DIIs turned out to be marginally negative with 65 cr.

Also, market breadth was also favouring bears with 1100 declines against 689 advances...

The short term bias continues to be gloomy if resistances are not crosses and mid term bias is negative too with 10650-10750 being the reversal..

So bottom line.... If Nifty fails to cross the hurdles, bears are ready to take the markets for a southward journey...  And being a CHAMELEON is the only advice for traders...

Trade safe... With strict stop loss and money management...

Cheers

Have a great weekend...

#MarketUpdate - Bulls > Bears, BUT . . . .

Hi All,

As per the observation (on FII and DII net flows) posted late evening yesterday, Nifty started trading day on a positive note by rising more than half a percentage, however gave off almost all gains and even traded negative for a while, but only to recover smartly and rising further by more than  100 points in the second half.

On daily charts, Nifty created a Hammer like pattern which is surely a great positive sign for bulls, moreover this candle appears near prior moving averages supports mentioned yesterday. In order to call this at least a short term trend reversal, nifty should surpass and sustain above 10270-10310 mark, upon which it can expected to rally upwards near 10450-10650 levels.

Everything was positive for Markets today, especially from the second half, except for an important fact... The Market breadth, i.e. the Advance Decline ratio was in favour of bears for almost the entire day, when markets were trading higher. At noon, the ratio was as bad as 1:1.5 in favour of bears, after the late afternoon surge, the AD ratio was still fairly on the bears side. Usually this coupled with some other observations can see negative bias for coming days.

We can expect Nifty to go up, face stiff resistances and then give away entire gains in days to come... However, tomorrow will be very crucial as we will also be getting a weekly close for markets, and a close above 10350 odd levels can then mean a Hammer on a weekly chart, and the same has to be interpreted later.

A near to short term bullish bias can only be if Nifty sustains above the resistances mentioned.

The bias for mid term continues to be bearish thanks to the Bearish Engulfing pattern of first week of February, with reversal above 10750

Cheers....

Leeeeeee Bazaaaaaaaar.... Sensex 33 Hajaaaaaaaaaar....! ! !

Interesting observation... The Provisional FII and FII figures show that DIIs were net buyers today where as FIIs were net sellers... This looks positive... As per y personal opinion... FIIs turn out to be smarter than FIIs...(Latest instance....Yesterday FII were net buyers and DIIs net seller and markets tanked by more than 100 points today, and many such instances...)

In connection with this data, and the fact that indices are trading near 200 daily and 40 weekly moving Averages.... It would be interesting to see the near term movement... The bias remain negative ... however we can witness a small pullback... However I still go with my original plan of action.... 

BE A CHAMELEON....

#MarketUpdate - Leeeee Bazaaaar... Happy Journey 10 Hazaaar ! ! !

Hi all,

After flirting with the support near 10330 yesterday, Nifty saw a small bounce till the mentioned resistance area near 10430.... However could not sustain the rise and gave off all the gains and fell more than 200 points from today's high...

In this bargain, Nifty has broken a key support zone, near the lower end of the basing (Consolidation) area of 10250-300 and closed below 10250 mark.

As mentioned earlier, sustaining below the support zone for tomorrow (means this not being a false break down, usually happens in indecisive markets) Nifty is free to fall and reach the next pit stop near 10070-10030-10000 levels.

On daily/weekly charts, following observations were seen -

• Nifty broke the sideways consolidation (10270-10650)
• It has also broken an upward trend line from the lows of December 2017
• Also broken the pennant like formation mentioned in earlier post (Read this) 
• Confirmed the hidden divergence after breaking 10270 (Read this) 
• Nifty also broke below a Head N Shoulder (HNS) like pattern on daily / weekly charts, which even suggests lower targets near 9300-9200
• Trading in proximity of 200 daily and 40 weekly moving averages (10120 & 10170)

All these observations are bearish in nature, other than the moving averages, which clearly shows that the bias for markets is bearish, if Nifty sustains below the support areas of 10250-10300 with immediate targets near 10100-10000 levels, and below that 9800-9600 and even 9300 (as per the HNS pattern) aggressively.

So in a nutshell, untill any further bullish confirmation... Happy Journey 10000....

Please find below the chart for better understanding ...

Cheers...

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour.. Sell the Fact !

Hi All,

Update @ 3.30 PM - 

After taking support near 10330 mark twice, Nifty managed to bounce back a bit, but as suggested, it could not sustain 10370 levels, hence did not see any upmove...

Any upmove tomorrow, only possible above 10370-10380 levels with next resistances as probable targets... 

Meanwhile, On the lower side 10330-10270 are crucial supports

Cheers


Update @ 12.16 PM - 

Nifty took support near the first level of 10337 and hourly chart shows a hammer pattern which is bullish. If Nifty surpasses and sustains above 10370, it can go up further till 10430-450 levels.....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Tug of War !

Hi All,

As expected, on account of some positive triggers mentioned in the earlier post last week, Nifty saw a small pull back of around 200 points but faced resistance near the daily price top near 10637 and is currently trading down by around 150 points from that mark near 10480.

Being a Chameleon   is the only option for traders going forward, as Nifty might trade in a broad range of around 400 points, i.e. from 10250-10300 on the lower side to 10640-10750 on the higher side, which clearly shows a tug of war between Bulls and Bears to continue till such time there is an either side breakout.

Yesterday's daily candle was almost a Doji candle, supporting the indecisive view for short term unless Nifty crosses any of the above mentioned levels either on up or lower side.

Below the supports near 10250, Nifty can travel to 10000-10100 mark and below that it can drift down till 9800-9600 levels, whereas, on the higher side is 10750 is surpassed convincingly, Nifty can even travel towards to the all time high near 11200.

Immediate Supports - 10450-10400-10330-10260
Immediate Supports - 10550-10640-10710-10750

Market View - Any intraday short position should be entered only and only if Nifty breaks and sustains below 10450, whereas longs can be built in if Nifty surpasses and sustains 10650 levels (however would have lower risk to reward ratio as 10750 would be immediate resistance)


Cheers!

#MarketUpdate - A Lazy Day ! ! !

Hi All,

Further to yesterday's post, due to various conflicting signals, muted global markets and FNO Expiry, markets behaved in a very lackluster manner, which shows a lot of indecision.

For past 3 days, Nifty is moving in a tight range of less than 100 points, and a breakout above the resistances or supports mentioned in the previous update (Read here) will decide the trend going forward....

On the lower side 10270-10340 are crucial supports where as on higher side 10435-10550-10650-10750 are important hurdles for bulls.

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Be a Chameleon ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty is struggling to cross the resistances marked yesterday near 10435-10530. And failing to do that convincingly, it is cont expected to drift down to 10300-10250 levels and then continue the southward journey till 10100-10030-10000 levels.

However, weekly charts, show a bit of mercy to bulls,

1. Nifty has taken a support near the Supertrend near 10337, which means if Nifty manages to close above this level there can be a pull back which can be expected in near term.

2. Also, along with Supertrend, Nifty showed a hidden divergence on weekly charts, which again reiterates the positive outlook, only and only if Nifty crosses the important resistance of 10750, which was also the trailing reversal (stop loss) given for my ongoing bearish view. However this is contradicted on daily charts with bearish hidden divergence where prices not going higher in spite of RSI creating higher highs

3. The recent weekly fall from 11200, till 10300 is with relatively lesser volumes

However, I personally feel even this rise, if happens above 10750, can still be looked at as a selling opportunity with an ultimate stop loss above the life high of 10200, as we can see a strong, bearish engulfing pattern right on top.

So in a nutshell, there are lot of contradicting signals, hence #traders are expected to trade with strict stop loss and money management.

Also, Being a Chameleon, is a must in such a market scenario which is going to expect a lot of volatility for at least next one year. you can not marry your view, and have to adjust your strategy according to market swings...

To sum up the view - 

Intraday / Near term - 10340 key support, and below which 10300-10260 will be last chance for bulls,

Short term - 10260-10300 key supports, below that 10100-10030-10000 looks imminent.

Positive view near to short term is Nifty surpasses 10435-10530 levels with a target near 10750, and if 10750 is surpassed the all time highs can be touched upon, but with a bearish bias with a stop loss above 11200...

Below is the chart to summarize the weekly chart signals discussed above...

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - #Nifty behaved .... as expected

Hi All,

As expected in the morning, Bulls tried to keep markets in positive territory for most of the day, however, could not make it sustain above the resistances mentioned earlier (10435-10530). Nifty could not even touch 10435 mark.

Today was more of an indecisive day where the total movement in Nifty was not even 100 points ( around 80 points), however it is red candle with selling pressure.

The supports and resistances are in tact and the bias remains the same...

Cheers

Hrishi