#MarketUpdate - Unbearable Bears

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty saw a positive start and traded strongly for first half... However could not cross the resistance mentioned yesterday of 10300 and bears took control and pulled Nifty to negative territory after creating high of 10296

On the Provisional activity front, though FII are neg buyers with Rs 550 cr , importantly, DIIs turned out to be marginally negative with 65 cr.

Also, market breadth was also favouring bears with 1100 declines against 689 advances...

The short term bias continues to be gloomy if resistances are not crosses and mid term bias is negative too with 10650-10750 being the reversal..

So bottom line.... If Nifty fails to cross the hurdles, bears are ready to take the markets for a southward journey...  And being a CHAMELEON is the only advice for traders...

Trade safe... With strict stop loss and money management...

Cheers

Have a great weekend...

#MarketUpdate - Bulls > Bears, BUT . . . .

Hi All,

As per the observation (on FII and DII net flows) posted late evening yesterday, Nifty started trading day on a positive note by rising more than half a percentage, however gave off almost all gains and even traded negative for a while, but only to recover smartly and rising further by more than  100 points in the second half.

On daily charts, Nifty created a Hammer like pattern which is surely a great positive sign for bulls, moreover this candle appears near prior moving averages supports mentioned yesterday. In order to call this at least a short term trend reversal, nifty should surpass and sustain above 10270-10310 mark, upon which it can expected to rally upwards near 10450-10650 levels.

Everything was positive for Markets today, especially from the second half, except for an important fact... The Market breadth, i.e. the Advance Decline ratio was in favour of bears for almost the entire day, when markets were trading higher. At noon, the ratio was as bad as 1:1.5 in favour of bears, after the late afternoon surge, the AD ratio was still fairly on the bears side. Usually this coupled with some other observations can see negative bias for coming days.

We can expect Nifty to go up, face stiff resistances and then give away entire gains in days to come... However, tomorrow will be very crucial as we will also be getting a weekly close for markets, and a close above 10350 odd levels can then mean a Hammer on a weekly chart, and the same has to be interpreted later.

A near to short term bullish bias can only be if Nifty sustains above the resistances mentioned.

The bias for mid term continues to be bearish thanks to the Bearish Engulfing pattern of first week of February, with reversal above 10750

Cheers....

Leeeeeee Bazaaaaaaaar.... Sensex 33 Hajaaaaaaaaaar....! ! !

Interesting observation... The Provisional FII and FII figures show that DIIs were net buyers today where as FIIs were net sellers... This looks positive... As per y personal opinion... FIIs turn out to be smarter than FIIs...(Latest instance....Yesterday FII were net buyers and DIIs net seller and markets tanked by more than 100 points today, and many such instances...)

In connection with this data, and the fact that indices are trading near 200 daily and 40 weekly moving Averages.... It would be interesting to see the near term movement... The bias remain negative ... however we can witness a small pullback... However I still go with my original plan of action.... 

BE A CHAMELEON....

#MarketUpdate - Leeeee Bazaaaar... Happy Journey 10 Hazaaar ! ! !

Hi all,

After flirting with the support near 10330 yesterday, Nifty saw a small bounce till the mentioned resistance area near 10430.... However could not sustain the rise and gave off all the gains and fell more than 200 points from today's high...

In this bargain, Nifty has broken a key support zone, near the lower end of the basing (Consolidation) area of 10250-300 and closed below 10250 mark.

As mentioned earlier, sustaining below the support zone for tomorrow (means this not being a false break down, usually happens in indecisive markets) Nifty is free to fall and reach the next pit stop near 10070-10030-10000 levels.

On daily/weekly charts, following observations were seen -

• Nifty broke the sideways consolidation (10270-10650)
• It has also broken an upward trend line from the lows of December 2017
• Also broken the pennant like formation mentioned in earlier post (Read this) 
• Confirmed the hidden divergence after breaking 10270 (Read this) 
• Nifty also broke below a Head N Shoulder (HNS) like pattern on daily / weekly charts, which even suggests lower targets near 9300-9200
• Trading in proximity of 200 daily and 40 weekly moving averages (10120 & 10170)

All these observations are bearish in nature, other than the moving averages, which clearly shows that the bias for markets is bearish, if Nifty sustains below the support areas of 10250-10300 with immediate targets near 10100-10000 levels, and below that 9800-9600 and even 9300 (as per the HNS pattern) aggressively.

So in a nutshell, untill any further bullish confirmation... Happy Journey 10000....

Please find below the chart for better understanding ...

Cheers...

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour.. Sell the Fact !

Hi All,

Update @ 3.30 PM - 

After taking support near 10330 mark twice, Nifty managed to bounce back a bit, but as suggested, it could not sustain 10370 levels, hence did not see any upmove...

Any upmove tomorrow, only possible above 10370-10380 levels with next resistances as probable targets... 

Meanwhile, On the lower side 10330-10270 are crucial supports

Cheers


Update @ 12.16 PM - 

Nifty took support near the first level of 10337 and hourly chart shows a hammer pattern which is bullish. If Nifty surpasses and sustains above 10370, it can go up further till 10430-450 levels.....

Cheers

#Marketupdate - Tug of War !

Hi All,

As expected, on account of some positive triggers mentioned in the earlier post last week, Nifty saw a small pull back of around 200 points but faced resistance near the daily price top near 10637 and is currently trading down by around 150 points from that mark near 10480.

Being a Chameleon   is the only option for traders going forward, as Nifty might trade in a broad range of around 400 points, i.e. from 10250-10300 on the lower side to 10640-10750 on the higher side, which clearly shows a tug of war between Bulls and Bears to continue till such time there is an either side breakout.

Yesterday's daily candle was almost a Doji candle, supporting the indecisive view for short term unless Nifty crosses any of the above mentioned levels either on up or lower side.

Below the supports near 10250, Nifty can travel to 10000-10100 mark and below that it can drift down till 9800-9600 levels, whereas, on the higher side is 10750 is surpassed convincingly, Nifty can even travel towards to the all time high near 11200.

Immediate Supports - 10450-10400-10330-10260
Immediate Supports - 10550-10640-10710-10750

Market View - Any intraday short position should be entered only and only if Nifty breaks and sustains below 10450, whereas longs can be built in if Nifty surpasses and sustains 10650 levels (however would have lower risk to reward ratio as 10750 would be immediate resistance)


Cheers!

#MarketUpdate - A Lazy Day ! ! !

Hi All,

Further to yesterday's post, due to various conflicting signals, muted global markets and FNO Expiry, markets behaved in a very lackluster manner, which shows a lot of indecision.

For past 3 days, Nifty is moving in a tight range of less than 100 points, and a breakout above the resistances or supports mentioned in the previous update (Read here) will decide the trend going forward....

On the lower side 10270-10340 are crucial supports where as on higher side 10435-10550-10650-10750 are important hurdles for bulls.

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Be a Chameleon ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty is struggling to cross the resistances marked yesterday near 10435-10530. And failing to do that convincingly, it is cont expected to drift down to 10300-10250 levels and then continue the southward journey till 10100-10030-10000 levels.

However, weekly charts, show a bit of mercy to bulls,

1. Nifty has taken a support near the Supertrend near 10337, which means if Nifty manages to close above this level there can be a pull back which can be expected in near term.

2. Also, along with Supertrend, Nifty showed a hidden divergence on weekly charts, which again reiterates the positive outlook, only and only if Nifty crosses the important resistance of 10750, which was also the trailing reversal (stop loss) given for my ongoing bearish view. However this is contradicted on daily charts with bearish hidden divergence where prices not going higher in spite of RSI creating higher highs

3. The recent weekly fall from 11200, till 10300 is with relatively lesser volumes

However, I personally feel even this rise, if happens above 10750, can still be looked at as a selling opportunity with an ultimate stop loss above the life high of 10200, as we can see a strong, bearish engulfing pattern right on top.

So in a nutshell, there are lot of contradicting signals, hence #traders are expected to trade with strict stop loss and money management.

Also, Being a Chameleon, is a must in such a market scenario which is going to expect a lot of volatility for at least next one year. you can not marry your view, and have to adjust your strategy according to market swings...

To sum up the view - 

Intraday / Near term - 10340 key support, and below which 10300-10260 will be last chance for bulls,

Short term - 10260-10300 key supports, below that 10100-10030-10000 looks imminent.

Positive view near to short term is Nifty surpasses 10435-10530 levels with a target near 10750, and if 10750 is surpassed the all time highs can be touched upon, but with a bearish bias with a stop loss above 11200...

Below is the chart to summarize the weekly chart signals discussed above...

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - #Nifty behaved .... as expected

Hi All,

As expected in the morning, Bulls tried to keep markets in positive territory for most of the day, however, could not make it sustain above the resistances mentioned earlier (10435-10530). Nifty could not even touch 10435 mark.

Today was more of an indecisive day where the total movement in Nifty was not even 100 points ( around 80 points), however it is red candle with selling pressure.

The supports and resistances are in tact and the bias remains the same...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - #Bulls dying to show off strength.... Looks difficult though...

Hi All,

Those who are short at higher levels near 10600 can book profits currently as advised earlier (or can at least trail stoploss).

Nifty has fallen till 10300 and taken support near  the recent bottom of 10270 and bounced back around 100 points.

On hourly charts it is showing a bullish candle and a small pull back on the upside can not be ruled out.... If the markets are to continue the downtrend going forward, bears have to restrict bears below 10435 to 10530 levels. Above 10500 Bulls might take full control hence short positions are advised with a partial profit booking or trailing stop losses..

Risky traders can still sell on rise with stop losses above the aforesaid resistances.

Cheers

Hrishi

#KnowledgeSeries - Does Technical Analysis work ? Learn it the #PNB way

Hi All,

I am sure that all of you might be aware about what happened with Punjab National Bank. Flamboyant diamond and jewellery merchant Nirav Modi, with the help of some corrupt bank officials, used fake LoUs to defraud the bank to the quantum of close to Rs.11,400 crores. Enough of the story is available on the internet, and I am sure you would be aware about it thanks to the media, the social media and What's App forwards.

This post is meant for something else though...

All those familiar with Technicals know that "PRICE Discounts Everything", i.e. everything is visible on price it self, and that to, many times well in advance.

And this so called PNB scam confirms this tenant once again. Those aware about some basic Technical Analysis methods, would have been able to predict, if not a scam per say, but a steep price fall, at least till 130 levels. 

Got this information on What's App, rechecked at my end, below is an image showing how charts have already hinted a fall in the prices before the news actually came out. 

The chart was very clear about something is cooking for short term and as a result of that a fall from 200 to at least 130 levels could have been expected in January, well in advance before the actual even of fraud was made public.... 

• Prices were rising from November, with thinner volumes
• Also, price rise was not accompanied by rise in OI, which suggest fresh long positions were not getting built up
• On 24 and 25 January, Nifty, on daily charts gave a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal candlestick formation

I very well know that this is kind of post mortem, but the point I want to make here is that there are ways by which you can analyze a stock price, only thing is you should know how....

I am sure, you all are getting regular market updates, and fortunately Nifty is behaving in the same manner as per our Technical Analysis / chart discussion, hope you all able to en-cash this down move which started after Nifty broke crucial levels of 10900-800 ...

Before we end the week, here is my personal view on PNB . . .

The stock has been hammered from 200 levels to almost 120 levels, which is a massive fall of 35 to 40%. The next support area for PNB is near 110 (daily bottom) and 100 levels (78.6% retracement). 

After such a huge fall and given the fact that daily chart today ended up giving a Doji candle, which shows indecisiveness, if and only if prices cross and sustain above 129-131 levels, a small pull back can be expected with higher targets near  139-142, however post that it is expected to come down and if breaks 120 then, can fall down to 110 or 100.

So, risky traders out there can take positions according to the aforesaid levels...

For investors, I may not be the best person to comment on the fundamentals, just thought of sharing a news I heard that LIC issues a statement that they still believe in the company and not going to sell their current holdings at a loss. Also, being a government undertaking, it is unlikely that this scam will replicate the results which happened in the case of Satyam Computers or Bhushan Steel earliar... 

If you are convinced woth the fundamentals, I feel good time to accumulate 25% of your total investment kept aside for this stock and then enter later, if it comes down 

Cheers ! ! !

Hrishi

Market Update - #Nifty....Bears strike back.. Book profits

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty could not sustain higher levels above 10600 and gave off the gains and currently trading negative by almost 100 points or 1 % from yesterday.

People who are on the short side from 10600+ levels with stop loss above 10750, can book part profits currently near 10450, and trail stop loss at cost.

On daily charts, Nifty has broken below the bearish pennant pattern showed in earlier post, and is now expected to go down, with a simple rule of lower tops lower bottoms, the first target expected for the down trend will be near recent low of 10250-70, after that one can expect pennant targets to materialize near 9800-9600....

Cheers!

Market Update - #Nifty Bearish Pennant/Hidden Divergence.. Sell on rise

Hi All,

As posted earlier, Nifty faces a strong resistance near 10600-10710 levels and every rise in markets should be taken as a selling opportunity with a stop loss above these resistances.

Looks like Nifty is forming a bearish pennant like pattern (which is a Bearish continuation pattern) on daily charts and breaking 10500-10390 levels Nifty can further slip to 10260 levels and below which the doors are open for 10k levels on Nifty. Breaking of 10k levels will cause serious troubles for Bulls and Nifty can then move down to 9800-9600-9400 levels...

Nifty also showed a hidden bearish divergence on Daily charts (which is kind of opposite of the regular divergences we talk about) where in Nifty failed to higher than 10637, in spite of RSI is creating a higher high. This supports the bearish sentiment and levels of 10400-10270-50 will be important support zones.

A reversal for this bearish view is 10750 for Nifty....

Cheers

#KnowledgeSeries - Watch - Your Way to Financial Success ! ! !

Hi All,

Just thought of sharing a video, recorded by me couple of years back.

Check it out, to explore avenues for building wealth from Stock Markets....


An hour long video covers a detailed discussion on -

• Financial Success with Capital Markets
• Two prime ways for building wealth
• A popular, misleading myth, busted
• Secret to success.

Cheers...

Happy Weekend....

Market update - BANG ON ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted earlier, Nifty failed to cross 10620-10750 levels (38.2 and 50% retracement of the recent fall), and is currently down by more than 1.5% near 10400. Unfortunately though, due to the gap down opening many would not have been short on the higher side.

After a steep fall, Nifty might see an intraday bounce on the up side however, it may not be safe to trade it. For intraday supports will be near 10370-10340-10310-10270, however it is not advisable to go long currently without any material bullish evidence. Intraday resistance will be near 10480-10500-10530 levels...

Going forward, for short term 10270 will now be very crucial and breaking that Nifty might slip to 10000-10100 levels which is a psychological support zone... Below that the gates for 9800-9600 are opened for Nifty.

So, the Indian Stock SALE got cheaper as promised earlier, and it might even get more . . .  Long term investors are advised to accumulate quality stocks / MF / ETFs (Please Read - Wealth Creation with Stocks - Possible?) worth 25-30% of their investable corpus... so that remaining money can be pumped in when markets go down further.

Cheers  ! ! !

Market update - Stock SALE might get a bigger discount ! ! !

Hi All,

I am sure, by now, you all would have received Whats App messages regarding, Great Indian Stock clearing Sale with 20 to 30% off on Selected stocks. 

Let me tell you that, it might offer a bigger discount...

As a trader, it's all about game of probabilities, let us explore them briefly....

As mentioned yesterday, Nifty could not surpass 10600 levels and gave off entire gains of the opening trade.

After the status quo of RBI, Nifty showed marginal volatility, and went negative by 50 points, and settled the day near 10480...
After making a new high near 11180 levels, Nifty fell almost by 900 points to create a low @ 78.6% of the rise near 10276. After that from second half of yesterday and today, it rallied up to 10620 levels which is 38.2% of the recent 900 fall.

I personally feel, if Nifty fail to cross 10620-10750  levels (which is 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent fall), it is headed southwards to create a new low with targets near 10000-9800-9600. A strong move above 10900/11000 might negate this possibility, but I guess the probability is lower.

Supports on the lower side 10430-10390-10330-10270-10200-10000, resistances will be near 10530-10620-10730-10850-10900-11000-11200.

In a nutshell, the bias remains cautious with taste of bearishness for short term, with above levels in mind, one can take a trade with strict stop losses accordingly. However, One observation is, market breadth of 13:4 was in favour of bulls...

If I get a chance, will post a tradable scenario....

Cheers

Hrishi

Wealth creation with stocks... Possible???

Hi All,

This might be a question troubling all of us, all the time and especially today.... 

Let us try and find out the answer....

First of all, though profits can be made in short term with buy buying lower and selling higher, the WEALTH creation definitely happens buy buying and holding on to something for a real long term, like more than 5 to 10 years. 

So, if you want to be a 

Short term Trader - who books profits by buying lower and selling higher, please pull up yourself, as for these quick money techniques you need first of all have the inclination towards this and need to put in lot of efforts and devote some time, if not done it yet.... 

Long Term Investor - Who want to be invested in markets for years to reap its benefits with some simple investing rules.. 

So, What should I do as a successful Long term investor - -   

The answer for that can be really tricky, but to keep it as simple, please find below the information to the best of my knowledge...

People with existing investment portfolio - 

• Should of course continue to hold it. 
• As markets have gave up almost 10% from the peak of 11200, its a good time to accumulate quality stocks.
• If you are a seasoned investors for more than 5 to 10 years, then who am I to tell you... you all know it better... :)
• However, if you started investing in past 2-3 years, this might be the biggest fall you would have seen till date, and a loss of 2 to 20% of your investments portfolio is normal, depending on the quality stocks you hold.
• Markets have seen much bigger single day losses than today, and those who STAYED INVESTED then are ripping the benefits of patience.
• The fall may not be over, as markets may correct another 5 to 10% based on other analytical permutations and combinations, in order to withstand such kind of sell offs, you can  
• Select quality stocks rather than accumulating higher quantities of small priced shares
• Take an informed decision, if you cant take help of advisors, research analysts, broker, etc
• Diversify your investments across asset classes, i.e. stocks, debt (FD/RD/PF, etc.), gold (in electronic form by buying ETFs like Gold bees, etc which is almost up by 1%)
• Stock portion should be further diversified in to various sectors with large cap (less risky), mid cap (moderate risk) and small cap (higher risk) companies. 
• If your lesser capital does not allow you to diversify, buy ETFs (Exchange Traded Mutual funds) which track major indices, like NiftyBees (1/10 of Nifty value, will go up when Nifty goes up, and so on for indices specified), Junior Bees, M100, etc
• If your capital is really less, better to go with Mutual Funds investments.
• And last but not the least by all means . . .  Sip your investments... Rather than putting a lump sum amount once in a blue moon, be disciplined and invest an equal amount at regular intervals, usually a month for optimum benefits of rupee cost averaging (buying more shares when price is down and lesser shares when price is up, so that the cost of purchase is much lesser) and Power of Compounding.

People who want to start investing - 

• Please read this , if you have been scared by the news and social media today . . .
• It's better late than never.... Markets have experienced much more shocks, many times bigger than this, and still managed to give 15% + returns consistently.
• Start it now....
• Keep in mind the points mentioned above....

Hope this might help many of us to at least have a basic understanding of investing...

Cheers.....

Market update - Yeh Bull hai ke Maanta nahin.... ! ! !

Hi All...

Thanks to the global meltdown on account of interest rate spike in US and inflation concerns, global stock markets including Dalal Street saw a massive sell off...

However, after the initial panic in the morning, markets recovered more than half of the loss.

As discussed, after taking support exactly at the 78.6% retracement of 10276, Nifty traded cautiously for first half of the day and then rallied further to recover almost half of the opening losses.

Though it closed negative by 168 points, the daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, which is not the case in Sensex however. Also, drilling down on hourly charts, Nifty ended the intraday rally with a Shooting start like candle, hence 10470-450 levels become vary crucial supports for tomorrow.

Also, on daily charts after gaping down by almost 300 points, Nifty recovered and close the gap before closing the day, hence there is no gap down / bearish window on Daily charts...

Going forward....

Might be too early / risky to take a bullish stance immediately, and I would like to wait and watch for another bullish evidence on charts, however one thing is imminent that bull have to surpass and sustain 10600 for any upside and bears have to break 10270-250 for further downside.

As posted earlier, 10000 remains a key psychological support, below which Nifty can drift down till 9700-9650 levels.

In a nut shell,

• Short traders might have already booked profits when the trade was initiated near 10800 levels, and should ideally wait for a favourable risk reward opportunity,

• Long traders should ideally wait and watch for something more concrete to happen...

Cheers

 

Hrishi.....

DON'T Invest in equity markets ever . . . . IF ! ! !

Hi All,

IF you can't / dont want to / chose not to,  understand it, select any other asset classes which can match it....

One of the famous rules for investing by Warren Buffet is, Dont invest in something you dont understand.... So follow that rule for equities as well...

As expected, after an anticipated sell off in markets..... posts started floating for calling it an end of equities, busting of equity market bubble, so on and so forth.

This post is for all those who are calling it this way, please be aware ....

• In a single year of 2008, markets have fallen by whopping 61% (in that case, current fall is just 10%)
• #Sensex fell from 21000 to 8000 and Nifty fell from 6300 to 2250 in less than 10 months
• The same indices, are now trading at (in spite of the recent so called Bloodbath or Carnage) near 10400 (Nifty) and 33700 (Sensex)
• Which is an absolute return of around 60%
• Moreover, those who BELIEVED in and invested when the markets went lower by 60%, the absolute returns on an average are more than 100% in less than 9 years
• This translates in to a per annum growth rate of 18% (against < 10% in all orthodox asset classes like LIC, FDs, PPF, etc)

So simple advise to those who are creating this due to sheers lack of knowledge / awareness, please feel free to select any other asset which you understand and which can beat inflation consistently and avoid Equity markets....

And coming to traders... 

The informed ones are already short and booking profits now...

Cheers

Hrishikesh

Market update.. Leeeee Bazaaaar.... #Sensex saade 33 Hajaaar... ! ! !

Hi All,

starting with the regular update, as expected earlier, Nifty couldn't sustain the the latest rise of 1k points and gave away almost 1k odd points from the all time high near 11200.

Nifty has bounced back today from a 78.6% retracement of the entire rise from 10k to 11.2k levels, and on the lower side, 10250-10100-10000-9800-9600...

Though downside looks very hefty, the same is required for creating a strong base for the next upward rally.

Traders are advised not to take any trades on long side unless there is a convincing evidence on charts.... who are short as per the sell signal suggested below 10900-800, can trail stops or book profits...

Cheers

Hrishi