Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Market update - Bearish Engulf.....! ! !

Hi all,

As per the last post, Nifty did not sustain / close below the support mark of 9350, hence did not witness any meaningful downside....

Now on daily charts, pessimists have freshly appeared with a classic Bearish Engulf pattern (Bearish pattern) and now 9620-9580 levels will be very crucial to watch out for.... A bearish outlook only and only below these levels....



Going forward the support zone of 9620-9580-9540 will prove to be very crucial for deciding the further direction.....

Below the support zone, Nifty can expected to be corrected till 9430-9340 levels...

I will still stick to my view that after such an upmove, a short, healthy correction will be beneficial for a long term upsurge in Nifty... However the time for such a correction may not be certain...

The Monetary Policy outcome will also have a lot of impact and is likely to give further direction for markets

Let's read charts and try to get the early birds advantage.....


Cheers

Hrishi

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Market update - A Gravestone ? ? ? . . . .

After a stupendous rise in Nifty from 7900 to 9500, Nifty has started to show a sign of concern yet again.

However as advised earlier, this time too a bearish view can be taken if and only if Nifty breaks 9390-9350-9250.

On Weekly charts, Nifty has created a Gravestone Doji like pattern which is bearish if Nifty breaks the low of 9390 levels....

Nifty had also created a similar bearish pattern, Shooting star on the week ended 7th April, which saw a mild correction of around 1-1.5%, however Nifty took support near 9000 mark.

Bias

Short term - Up - Support (reversal) 9390-50
Next month - Up - Support (Reversal) 9270-50

Cheers

Hrishi

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

लाओ बझार.....निफ्टी साडे नौ हजार ....!!!



Hi all,

Thanks to the Hidden Bullish divergence on Nifty daily charts, Nifty achieved the higher targets of 9400-9500 as expected in the earlier post (Hidden Treasure or Hide and Seek !!!)

After sustaining above 9300, Nifty continued creating higher tops higher bottom formation, which is healthy sign for bulls. Thanks to lower CPI data, better than regular forecast for monsoon, GST roll out, etc it has closed above 9500 mark which is very encouraging too.

It is advisable to book part profits in the long positions created near 9300 levels and trail stop loss in profit below 9350 levels...

On daily charts, Nifty is trading with a RSI of 71+ levels which suggests that the markets are overbought, however, there are no bearish signals on charts right now.

Also, though Nifty witnesses a correction it is merely going to be short to medium term in nature as higher time frame charts are also showing same hidden divergences (refer earlier post) which confirms long term bullish outlook... The recent bottom near 6800 should act as a stop loss for long term bullish trend.

Traders are advised to trade based on a set plan of action.....and with proper money management

Short term supports / reversals / stop loss - 9250
Mid term supports / reversals / stop loss - 9000

Will keep you all posted occasionally with my views and personal predictions.....

Cheers

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Market update - Hidden treasure or Hide & Seek ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier update (Read - Book Profits) Nifty turned the course from 9050-80 mark (bottom near 9075) and bounced back sharply to create a new Life high near 9280... It took support near the super trend level of 9068

Though, in my opinion, a slight lengthier correction would have been healthy for the uptrend to sustain longer, after creating a new high or may be if Nifty surpasses 9300 mark the same looks difficult now and markets are set to rise at least till 9400-9500 levels.

On daily and weekly charts Nifty has shown a hidden positive divergence (Please see the image for Classic / regular Divergence Vs Hidden Divergence) which is a welcome sign for bulls going forward.


Though short term traders can capitalize on this divergence, it would be advisable, especially for positional and long term traders to wait for a Weekly close above 9280-9300 for a mid term up ward bias...

Any upside is warranted with a support of 9075- 9000 levels, as breaking that level will give lower bottom formation for Nifty which is not good for bulls....

Trading action for this week will be very crucial to decide the further course of the markets.....

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

As expected....Book Small profits....

Hi all,

As expected in my earlier post Hrishi's Blog - Shooting Star
Bull defended the key support area near 9150-80 for a lot of time, however could not sustain and Nifty broke the key support.

On the lower side now, 9080-50 will be first pit stop which is

Daily Supertrend support
A 78.6% retracement of the entire rise from 9019 to 9274 levels.
And a support and gap on houly charts

People who are standing short from the 9150-80 or higher levels can think of booking small partial profits near 9000 mark.

Below 9050-60, Nifty is expected to fall till 9020-8950 odd levels...

Cheers

Hrishi

Friday, April 7, 2017

Shooting Star....

Hi All,

After a stupendous run, Nifty showed reluctance to move forward the 9300 mark... after trading sideways for a while in 9000-9200 range.

However, as a sad news for bulls, on weekly charts Nifty has formed a Shooting Star Pattern, a bearish reversal pattern which will get confirmed below 9180.

So, breaking 9175-9150 can mean a short term bear trend for Nifty with possible targets on the lower side near 9000-8970-8890

Request traders to go short only and only if Nifty breaks the mentioned support zones....


Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Higher the risk, higher the reward ! ! ! Go Long in Nifty

Hi All,

Risk takers can go Long in Nifty for intraday @9080-85 with stop loss below 9050 and targets of 9130-50

Looks like a hidden divergence on hourly charts.

Advisable to close the trade intraday as a gap opening can be expected due to Fed meeting outcome tonight.

Cheers

Hrishi

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Nifty Life high, but failed to sustain the momentum...


Hi all,

Though nifty reached an all time high near 9122, it gave away more than half a percent gains and finally closed near 9087, thus forming a Doji (indecisive) candle on daily charts.


Hence, going forward, 9050-8980 will be crucial levels to watch out for any further surge in the indices. A close below 9050 means a short term bear trend on account of close below 9050 (low of today's Doji candle).

Monday, January 30, 2017

What Budget 2017 is offering traders? Ans - No Bad News is Good News ! ! !


Update 10 AM 2nd Feb 2017

#Budget - No bad news is good news ! ! !

Nifty, took support near 8550-8540 mark and gave a thumping response to the Union Budget 2017, rising by almost 150 points from the support....

Going forward, resistances will be near 8740-8810-8900-8970-9000 and as a conservative trader I would like to go long only on dips as the markets are near the ceiling,,,

Cheers

Hrishi
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update - 12.30 PM 31st Jan 2017

As expected, Nifty already tanked by half a percent after breaching short term reversal level of 8600 and now trades near 8560...

Next supports will be 8540-8500-8460-8420...

8400-8450 can be very crucial zone for bulls and the sentiments can again turn bullish for immediate term....

Cheers

Hrishi

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hi All,

Welcome back all after almost a gap of 2 months. I was and still caught up in some new ventures, but couldn't resist myself from posting a view for Grand Event of Budget 2017.

Markets tanked more than 10% from the highs of 9000 odd levels till almost 7900 amidst huge volatility due to events like Surgical strike on Pakistan, Demonetization, US Elections, etc.

However, after everything was settled, Nifty quietly recovered from the lows and gained around 10% to reach highs of 8700 levels last week.

Budget 2017 - 

Now, Budget, which is undoubtedly the most important yearly trigger for markets is round the corner, followed by various State elections which will also have a lot of impact on markets from political point of view.

What history says - 

After a huge fall, and a recovery based on some good results and partial settling of many domestic and foreign concerns, it is expected that we should see an upmove post Budget....

HOWEVER, it is observed that most of the Budgets earlier have either seen a Pre or a Post Budget rally and then an opposite move of the same. What I mean is that Nifty has already seen a rally of around 10% from the lows of November, and it is expected (based on historical observations) to trade subdued post Budget.

I am not an Economic expert to predict what the FM will offer in the Budget, but I personally feel that markets after a huge volatility would settle somewhere near the current range.

Technical evidences . . 

Daily charts have shown a visible weakness in the prices with consecutive selling pressure candles, with today's candle being almost similar to Shooting star / Gravestone Doji. also there are multiple resistances on daily chats near 8680-8740-8810-8900-8970-9000





On weekly and monthly charts also, Nifty is trading near a huge resistance area of 8610-8810, Supertrend too, will offer selling pressure near 8780 levels on closing basis




Crucial levels to watch out for - 

For Short term - A sustainable move below 8600 can trigger a short term bearish reversal
For mid term - A move below 8300 levels in Nifty will mean bearish implications for even mid term
For Long term primary trend - The same will be bullish until the lows of 7890-50 are intact.

What to do?

I personally feel that the bias for markets is surely gonna be volatile and traders are expected to trade with strict stop losses for either side trades. 

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Bulls fighting hard . . . Book part profits

Hi All,

As expected, though markets fell down after a disappointing Monetary Policy, rallied today and are up by more than 80 to 100 points from the initiation near 8140-8150

Nifty now trades near a resistance of 8250-60 levels and short term traders are advised to book part profits and trail stop loss below 8050, medium term outlook will be buy on dips with strict stop loss below 7900 levels….

For any further upside Nifty should give a weekly close above 8250-60 levels tomorrow in order to march towards the higher levels of 8400-8600


Cheers

Monday, November 28, 2016

Ray of Hope ! ! !

Hi All,

Ray of Hope  -

Though Nifty broke the recent swing low of 8000 and slid further towards 7900 levels, however has taken support near those areas and the now the Weekly hammer triggered for Nifty above 8125.

Nifty can rally upwards and can said to be have created a short term bottom if it sustains above the said levels 8125...8155... 

Reasons - (Please refer the chart below)

Weekly Hammer
Weekly RSI has taken support near 40 levels
Nifty has broken out from a falling Wedge pattern on hourly charts which is another ray oh hope....

Positional Traders can initiate long trades (advisably above 8155) with strict stop losses below 7900 levels. On higher side Nifty can eye levels of 8300-8460-8600...

Cheers






Friday, November 18, 2016

Bottom fishing ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, markets celebrated the November  Fool’s  days and drifted down badly till around 8000 levels, though there was a bounce of ~ 5-6% from those levels, the same was not sustainable and Nifty currently again trading near the supports 8000 levels.

On the daily charts, Nifty is trading in a highly oversold zone with RSI being as low as 25-26 levels, since a strong and sharp bounce was seen from the 8000 levels, we can expect these levels to hold on at least for short term.

However, broadly looking at the recent fall in markets suggests that the midterm bullish trend is at a risk now and any bounce can only be short term in nature unless some key levels on higher side are not surpassed.

Traders are advised to take a long trade @ CMP of 8060-8080 with a stop loss of around 1% below 8000 levels and targets 8150-8210-8280


Cheers

Update - 12.54 PM 18th November

Hi All,

As expected Nifty bounced back and is up by almost .5% from the initiation levels, day traders can either book profits near the resistance of 8115-20 or trail their stop loss.

Nifty, once sustains, 8120 can then head for further targets mentioned earlier….


Cheers

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Decoding the ban on Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes

Hi All,

Got this nice forward for depicting the bold decision yesterday taken by the Government.




Also please read the FAQ's answered by RBI by clicking here

Forwarded message as received - (Looks authentic based on the RBI story above)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on Withdrawal of Legal Tender Character of the Old High Denomination Bank Notes

1. Why is this scheme?
The incidence of fake Indian currency notes in higher denomination has increased. For ordinary persons, the fake notes look similar to genuine notes, even though no security feature has been copied. The fake notes are used for antinational and illegal activities. High denomination notes have been misused by terrorists and for hoarding black money. India remains a cash based economy hence the circulation of Fake Indian Currency Notes continues to be a menace. In order to contain the rising incidence of fake notes and black money, the scheme to withdraw has been introduced.

2. What is this scheme?
The legal tender character of the notes in denominations of ₹ 500 and Rs1000 stands withdrawn. In consequence thereof withdrawn old high denomination (OHD) notes cannot be used for transacting business and/or store of value for future usage. The OHD notes can be exchanged for value at any of the 19 offices of the Reserve Bank of India or at any of the bank branches or at any Head Post Office or Sub-Post Office.

3. How much value will I get?
You will get value for the entire volume of notes tendered at the bank branches / RBI offices.

4. Can I get all in cash?
No. You will get upto ₹4000 per person in cash irrespective of the size of tender and anything over and above that will be receivable by way of credit to bank account.

5. Why I cannot get the entire amount in cash when I have surrendered everything in cash?
The Scheme of withdrawal of old high denomination(OHD) notes does not provide for it, given its objectives.

6. ₹4000 cash is insufficient for my need. What to do?
You can use balances in bank accounts to pay for other requirements by cheque or through electronic means of payments such as Internet banking, mobile wallets, IMPS, credit/debit cards etc.

7. What if I don’t have any bank account?
You can always open a bank account by approaching a bank branch with necessary documents required for fulfilling the KYC requirements.

8. What if, if I have only JDY account?
A JDY account holder can avail the exchange facility subject to the caps and other laid down limits in accord with norms and procedures.

9. Where can I go to exchange the notes?
The exchange facility is available at all Issue Offices of RBI and branches of commercial banks/RRBS/UCBs/State Co-op banks or at any Head Post Office or Sub-Post Office.

10. Need I go to my bank branch only?
For exchange upto 4000 in cash you may go to any bank branch with valid identity proof.
For exchange over 4000, which will be accorded through credit to Bank account only, you may go to the branch where you have an account or to any other branch of the same bank.
In case you want to go to a branch of any other bank where you are not maintaining an account, you will have to furnish valid identity proof and bank account details required for electronic fund transfer to your account.

11. Can I go to any branch of my bank?
Yes you can go to any branch of your bank.

12. Can I go to any branch of any other bank?
Yes, you can go to any branch of any other bank. In that case you have to furnish valid identity proof for exchange in cash; both valid identity proof and bank account details will be required for electronic fund transfer in case the amount to be exchanged exceeds ₹4000.

13. I have no account but my relative / friend has an account, can I get my notes exchanged into that account?
Yes, you can do that if the account holder relative/friend etc gives you permission in writing. While exchanging, you should provide to the bank, evidence of permission given by the account holder and your valid identity proof.

14. Should I go to bank personally or can I send the notes through my representative?
Personal visit to the branch is preferable. In case it is not possible for you to visit the branch you may send your representative with an express mandate i.e. a written authorisation. The representative should produce authority letter and his / her valid identity proof while tendering the notes.

15. Can I withdraw from ATM?
It may take a while for the banks to recalibrate their ATMs. Once the ATMs are functional, you can withdraw from ATMs upto a maximum of Rs.2,000/- per card per day upto 18th November, 2016. The limit will be raised to Rs.4000/- per day per card from 19th November 2016 onwards.

16. Can I withdraw cash against cheque?
Yes, you can withdraw cash against withdrawal slip or cheque subject to ceiling of Rs10,000/- in a day within an overall limit of Rs.20,000/- in a week (including withdrawals from ATMs) for the first fortnight i.e. upto 24th November 2016.

17. Can I deposit withdrawn notes through ATMs, Cash Deposit Machine or cash Recycler?
Yes, OHD notes can be deposited in Cash Deposits machines / Cash Recyclers.

18. Can I make use of electronic (NEFT/RTGS /IMPS/ Internet Banking / Mobile banking etc.) mode?
You can use NEFT/RTGS/IMPS/Internet Banking/Mobile Banking or any other electronic/ non-cash mode of payment.

19. How much time do I have to exchange the notes?
The scheme closes on 30th December 2016. The OHD banknotes can be exchanged at branches of commercial banks, Regional Rural Banks, Urban Cooperative banks, State Cooperative Banks and RBI till 30th December 2016.
For those who are unable to exchange their Old High Denomination Banknotes on or before December 30, 2016, an opportunity will be given to them to do so at specified offices of the RBI, along with necessary documentation as may be specified by the Reserve Bank of India.

20. I am right now not in India, what should I do?
If you have OHD banknotes in India, you may authorise in writing enabling another person in India to deposit the notes into your bank account. The person so authorised has to come to the bank branch with the OHD banknotes, the authority letter given by you and a valid identity proof (Valid Identity proof is any of the following: Aadhaar Card, Driving License, Voter ID Card, Pass Port, NREGA Card, PAN Card, Identity Card Issued by Government Department, Public Sector Unit to its Staff)

21. I am an NRI and hold NRO account, can the exchange value be deposited in my account?
Yes, you can deposit the OHD banknotes to your NRO account.

22. I am a foreign tourist, I have these notes. What should I do?
You can purchase foreign exchange equivalent to ₹5000 using these OHD notes at airport exchange counters within 72 hours after the notification, provided you present proof of purchasing the OHD notes.

23. I have emergency needs of cash (hospitalisation, travel, life saving medicines) then what I should do?
You can use the OHD notes for paying for your hospitalisation charges at government hospitals, for purchasing bus tickets at government bus stands for travel by state government or state PSU buses, train tickets at railway stations, and air tickets at airports, within 72 hours after the notification.

24. What is proof of identity?
Valid Identity proof is any of the following: Aadhaar Card, Driving License, Voter ID Card, Pass Port, NREGA Card, PAN Card, Identity Card Issued by Government Department, Public Sector Unit to its Staff.

25. Where can I get more information on this scheme?
Further information is available at our website (www.rbi.org.in) and GoI website (www.rbi.org.in)

26. If I have a problem, whom should I approach?
You may approach the control room of RBI by email or on Telephone Nos 022 22602201/022 22602944
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQView.aspx?Id=119

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

A Hilarious Trump Card - November Fool's Days ahead

Hi All,

Not adhering to the expectation, Nifty broke the supports near 8560-40 and rested near 8400 psychological mark.

It also saw a "HILARIOUS" bounce yesterday, which could not be sustained, however Nifty managed to bounce from the lower end of the channel suggesting a ray of hope.

Also, yesterday's gap up opening gave an Outside Professional Gap on intraday charts, which is usually held at least for short term.

Nifty, on weekly chart has taken support near the Supertrend levels of 8397, hence a close below these levels can be a serious threat for short to mid term

And the final "TRUMP" Card is the Hammer on daily charts of Nifty today.

However, the risk for the above expectation is the market depth today, where, Nifty bounced back sharply without increasing the number of Advancing stocks as compared to the declining stocks, which is not a good sign for Bulls....

Now, in a nutshell, though Nifty has signaling a bit of bullishness, one should not forget the HILARIOUS TRUMP card for markets, the US Presidential Elections, and the results will be surely disturbing market sentiments, hence traders are advised to either stay out of markets for couple of days or have a strict Stop losses for longs (below 8400-8370) as well as shorts (above 8570-8600-8650)


Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Hammers all over ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty tanked badly and lost almost 100 points at the opening today, however on intraday charts it has produced multiple Hammer patterns on 5, 15 and hourly timeframes which is a bullish sign, and the lows of 8500-8460 are still intact…. Request all traders to keep a strict stop loss for the long trades below these support areas for a potential upside only and only if Nifty surpasses and sustains above 8650 levels….

8550 remains crucial level to watch for, if crossed then supports can be below 8500-8450-60


Cheers

Friday, October 28, 2016

Book Profits on Dhanteras....

Hi All,

Book Profits  on Dhanteras….

Nifty blasted, and is trading near the first target / resistance near 8650……

Book partial profits…..


Cheers

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Hammer Yet again . . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

After bottoming out today near 8550 on the Expiry day today, Nifty showed a lot of strength and rallied above 8600 (8624), thereby triggering the Long trade. Though, after creating an initial top near 8609, it skipped till 8575 levels, however, managed to come back strongly an close @ 8612.

So, with this close Nifty has given yet another Hammer on Daily charts and a move above today's high, can take Nifty to higher levels. (Refer the chart below)

We have already gone long near 8595-8600 levels, and surpassing 8025 levels tomorrow will ensure higher gains in coming days.

Traders are advised to keep strict Stop loss below 8530-40 for short term trade and below 8460 for a positional Long trade in Nifty...

Cheers



Bull Fighting ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty has broke out of a falling wedge pattern on intraday charts and showed a lot of strength near the supports of 8550 by bouncing back almost half a percent. It has also given divergences on hourly charts which collectively suggests a pull back in prices.


Traders can go Long only and only above 8595-8600 levels for short term or even positional long trade in Nifty. Stop loss for short term can be below 8540 and positional stop loss can be below 8460….


Hummer and Hammer both did not work

Hi All,

Nifty did not cross the said mark of 8545-50, and broke the supports mentioned near 8590. Hence the long trade mentioned yesterday was not initiated at all.

Now the last ray of hopes for bulls will be the support of 8470-8500, and I feel, the same should not be broken, however the area has now become a weak area of support.

So in a nutshell, neither Hummer effect could save India in 4th ODI nor the Hammer could save the Bulls..... ha ha ha ha :)  

Any long trade should only be initiated after a sufficient confirmation on charts.



Will keep you all  posted.

Cheers

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Dhoni drives Hummer.... Nifty gets Hammer ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty long call initiated near 8560-75 was trailed stopped out below 8630, however, earlier it saw a nice movement of more than 3% from the lows of 8500 to 8740.

Now, after consolidating in a tight range of less than 100 points for almost a week, Nifty gives yet another ray of hope for Bulls,

On hourly charts, Nifty has given a Hammer pattern with a RSI divergence, which will get confirmed only above 8645-50.


Trades can go long only and only above 8645-50 with SL below 8590 with targets of 8680-8700-8740... The only concern for the trade is the Gap down opening for Nifty today, hence strict stop losses are advisable....

Cheers

Hrishi