On a long journey – But the fuel Tank doesn’t look full...

Hi All,

Nifty, as expected rallied sharply towards the key levels of 8600-8640, thanks to the Hammer pattern seen on the hourly charts. As mentioned in the earlier posts, 8660-8700 will remain a crucial hurdle as there are many negatives which are hovering around the markets currently

On the Technical Front – Please refer the chart

·         Nifty is trading near a key resistance are of 8660 after rallying by almost 27% in 5 months without any major correction.

·         Nifty is trading near 78.6% retracement, 8630-40 of the entire fall from 9119 to 6825

·         Nifty is also trading near the upper end of the rising channel

·         On daily charts RSI, at 68 is nearly touching the overbought territory

Based on Fundamentals – Refer the chart

·         One of the reasons for markets rally is optimism about the GST clearance in the upcoming parliament session, non passage of the bill can be a huge setback for markets

·         One more sign of concern is the Nifty PE, which is currently trading near alarming levels of 23.69 (as of 25^th July 2016) and usually levels above 24-25 have resulted in a decent correction / fall in the Nifty

What can we expect -

If Nifty fails to breach the 8660-8700 levels convincingly, we can expect it to correct to the lower support areas and 8470-8540 will remain as crucial level for deciding the short to mid term trend. Below 8470-50 Nifty can come down till 8400-8280 levels

If Nifty keeps on scaling new highs with muted results the PE might swell and go above the alarming levels of 25, however good quarterly results for Nifty can help in cooling down the PE and thereby reducing the uncertainty

In a nutshell –

It is better to wait and watch as a trader for the levels based on charts and trade only after a proper evidence.

For an investor there is no need to worry as historically it is also seen that after those corrections given by PE valuations markets have bounced back decently. It is ideal time for starting the SIPs in Equity related MFs and/or investing directly in equities with proper stock selection and diversification.

Stupendous come back . . .

Hi All,

As expected, bulls came back sharply after the Hammer on hourly charts near the supports of 8470....

The upside targets mentioned in the earlier posts of 8560-8600 are almost achieved.

Now, it’s very important for Nifty to surpass the weak yet very important resistance zone of 8600-8650...

A better strategy would be to wait and watch till the time there are strong evidences on charts for a trade.

Cheers

Hrishi

Bulls show it off with a Hammer…

Hi All,

Hi All,

After a daily bearish engulf pattern and a candle divergence on RSI, Nifty went down in early trades by around 20 points, however bounced back smartly from the lows of 8470-80…..

8470-60 level is the key for the bulls below which the downside can be accelerated. Also Nifty gave a Hammer candle on hourly charts near the support area of 8470….. and it surpassed the high of the hammer.

Breaking 8525-35 levels can mean a little more upside can be seen in Nifty till 8560-8600.

However for a fresh upmove a close above 8600 or a surpassing the areas of 8640-8660 is going to be very crucial.

The intraday bias can be positive till the time Nifty is holding on to 8470 levels.

Moreover there is a Gap up support on daily chart in Nifty near 8475-80 levels and Nifty took support near these levels twice in recent past, a break of that level can mean a convincing victory for bears.

Cheers

Will bears change the channel ? ? ?

Hi All,

While marching above the highest levels for calendar year 2016, Nifty is now trading near the upper end of the channel which started from the lows of March 2016.

The latest upmove from the lows of 7927 levels on 24^th June, is happening majorly with small sized candles with less than average daily volumes. Moreover, last 2 candles which are also small sized star candles happened with higher than the average volumes which rings the alarming bells for the bulls. Also, Nifty is trading near the weekly resistance zone of 8520-8625-8660

All these observations point out a concern for bulls to go further up, however there are no bearish signs as of now visible on daily charts.

I feel for the uptrend to continue 8470-8450 are the key levels to watch out for which is an upward gap on daily charts, below these levels dominance from sellers can be expected.

The bias for the markets remains cautious and wait n watch.

Areas to watch out for intraday –

Supports – 8500-8470-8450-8400

Resistances – 8530-8560-8600-8630-8660

Cheers

Hammer and Rickshaw Man ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected on Friday, Nifty witnessed a sharp recovery after the negative opening by more than 300 points. Nifty also gave an indecisive Rickshaw Man candle on weekly chart, it is supported with a bullish Hammer pattern on daily charts that too near a Supertrend support.

Rickshaw Man pattern usually becomes active if the prices give either side breakout. Which means 8285-8300 on the higher side and 7920-7900 on the lower side will act as crucial areas going forward.

For witnessing an upmove Nifty should first surpass the 8100-8115 levels (High of the Hammer) and should sustain above 8120-8150 levels. On the lower side 8030-25 will act as a key intraday supports

for Nifty.

The view on the markets going forward will be indecisive with a slight bullish bias if Nifty manages to surpass the levels of 8100-850....

Cheers

BREXIT.... Curse or Blessing.....

Hi All,

As we all know that one of the main things hovering around the world economy is the Brexit.... or Britain Exit from European Union.

Have gone through may articles, here is a small summary of what it is and how it affects global economies and India in specific,....

Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit". It refers to the possibility that Britain will withdraw from the European Union. The counting of the votes is ongoing right now with Remain and Leave as the option... Leave is leading by 51% which means those who want Britain to exit are the ones in majority. 

Please click on the link - All you need to know about Brexit...

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/what-does-it-all-mean-brexit-brexplained/news-story/76b3d1e7cac360a14a0fcdc3093a186e


Click to read - Bad for Britain, Good for India

http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/your-guide-to-brexit-and-5-ways-it-will-impact-india-1421554

Verdict - 

I feel, though, the Brexit might give some short term pain for Indian markets in line with the world economy, finally it s going to offer a long term Gain for us in many ways explained in above articles.

Current status of the referendum states that Britain is likely to leave, as Leave are leading with majority votes, expect the markets to open down by around 200-250 points,

View on Markets - Though the initial shock can take markets down by more than 200 points in opening, a rally can be positive if the key supports are held,  even if Nifty breaches key support of 8000-8050, a relief rally can surely expected as the Exit is just a short term concern for India, and over long term it will be able to reap its benefits... Support below 8000 will be 7940..... 

Cheers

Hrishi

Abhi to hum Zinda hai.....

Hi All,

Abhi to hum Zinda hai.....

Nifty tumbled down by more than 100 points in the opening trades yesterday, however, thanks to a smart pull back from bulls in the second half of the trading session, markets managed to close the day with a loss of 65 points at 8140.

Early morning barometer, SGX Nifty is trading up by almost 60 points, which suggests that Dalal Street will open with a gap up near 8200 mark.

It has been seen quite clearly that after a steep fall from 8300 levels to 8050 mark (which is also a 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from 7715 to 8300) , bulls are managed to defend the levels bravely after every downfall in past couple of days. On daily charts, Nifty has been giving Buying Pressure candles after an initial fall (except for 10^th June) and has also taken support of the Supertrend near 8050... Moreover, Nifty has given a Bullish Engulf candle on hourly charts yesterday, hence the same will act as a crucial support zone near 8040-8070

Going forward, 8050 will act as a strong support on a closing basis, and a close below that might continue the southward journey of Nifty.. Whereas on the higher side 8220-8270-8300-8340 will act as hurdles for Nifty.

The bias for the market as of now will be wait and watch.... A sustained movement above 8220 can lead Nifty higher towards 8300-40 levels....

Gravestone . . . .

Hi All,

As expected, though Nifty opened slightly crosses the Monday’s high of 8215 yesterday, it could not cross the Window resistance of 8209-8217-20 mark and traded lower thereafter.

After a Star candle followed by a Bearish engulf, yesterday, Nifty showed a sort of Gravestone Doji Candle, yet another bearish pattern on daily charts near gap resistance, which again suggest the ongoing pessimism in the market participants.

Which further confirms my view that any upside is possible only and only after a close above 8220 levels. Nifty can even witness a selling if it breaks 8100-8130 area.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 8130-8100-8060-8000-7940-7850

Resistances -  8185-8210-8230-8260-8340

Cheers                

Engulfing Bear . . .

Hi All,

After a indecisive candle near the Downward Gap resistance day before, yesterday bears took charge from bulls and closed the day with an Engulfing Bear candle.... Also, the red candle yesterday occurred with a significantly huge volume. Even the trade happened with a Candle divergence on RSI. All of this suggest that bears have an upper hand but if and only if Nifty goes below 8130-8100 levels in today’s trade.

As expected nifty did not break 8140-30 levels mentioned as supports in yesterday’s post and markets traded with a tight range of around 50-60 points after opening higher above 8210 levels.

Going forward, Nifty can witness a selling pressure if it breaches the 8100-8130 mark, n the higher side the resistance is pegged at 8210-8230 levels.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 8130-8100-8060-8000-7940-7850

Resistances -  8185-8210-8230-8260-8340

Cheers                

A Star near a Window.....

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty rallied sharply after the said levels and is marching towards resistance area of a Window (A Gap Down Opening) near 8209-8220.....

Also, Nifty yesterday created a small Star Candle which shows a lot of indecisiveness near the gap, showing a sign of concern for bulls going ahead. For the current rally to continue upward, Nifty should ideally close above the gap, i.e. 8217-8220.....

Nifty is overbought as per the oscillators on daily and weekly chart which suggests at least a pause / break in the current up run.

Traders with longs, are suggested to hold tight trailing stop losses, and the strategy for markets will be buy on dips with stop losses below supports.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 8140-8100-8060-8000-7940-7850

Resistances -  8230-8260-8340

Cheers

Laaaaaaaaaaao Bazaaaaar, Nifty 8 Hajaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected after surpassing the psychological level of 8000, Nifty rallied sharply by almost another percentage point and settled near 8070. Sensex too surpassed the barrier of 26000 mark

Going forward, 8120-25 will act as hurdle for bulls on the up side above which ideally Nifty should target 8200-8340 levels.

On the lower side a solid support from short term / mid term point of view will be near 7700-7670 and a break below that will change the trend to downwards.

Till any bearish confirmation on charts the bias for markets remains positive and Nifty should target 8200-8340 levels in coming days.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 8000-7950-7920-7850-7730-7700-7670

Resistances – 8100-8125-8200-8220-8250-8270-8300-8340-50

Cheers

Bulls in party mood....

Hi All,

After creating a bottom near 7700 levels Nifty rallied sharply for 2 days and closed yesterday near 7950 mark (7934.90)

Going forward, nifty will have a stiff resistance near 7990-8000 levels which acted as a hurdle for bears as a psychological level.

Any long trades should strictly folllow a trailing stop loss, and short trades if any should be with tight stop loss above 8000 levels on Nifty spot.....

Cheers

Last Ray of Hopes . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As predicted, Nifty fooled the bulls by a false close above 7900 for a day and tanked badly on Friday, the important day as per the weekly close as mentioned in earlier posts.

Nifty broke 7800 levels too, however managed to close marginally above it.

Now 7780-70 becomes the Last Ray of Hopes for Bulls as below that daily chart will have a Lower Bottom formation....

Levels to watch out for today –

Supports – 7770-7745-7710-7670

Resistances –7925-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

The D-Day...

Hi All,

Though Nifty crossed the 7900 mark, it was not comfortable above the levels and saw a selling pressure near it.

It has closed marginally above it, however the closing of today will be very crucial for markets as it is also going be a weekly close.

On weekly charts there will be a Supertrend resistance 7908 and a close above that will negative the current pessimism and Nifty can move up to the next pit stop near 8000....

Also, in the recent run up the volumes are on the weaker side which suggest lack of momentum.

It would be advisable for traders to wait and watch before taking any overnight trade this weekend.

Supports – 7840-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7925-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Confusion hi confusion hai.....

Hi All,

A sharp bounce after a huge gap down opening showed lot of hopes for bulls in the first half of the session, however, yet another time, Nifty could not surpass the key level of 7900 and witnesses one more selling pressure near the levels.

As mentioned quite a  few times earlier, the bias for Nifty will be positive only after sustaining above 7900 levels that too with some bullish confirmation, till then bears will have an upper hand with supports near 7800-7770-7730.

One encouraging thing for bulls is that the level of 7900 has provided selling for bears for too many times now and hence has become weaker, which means chances of the same getting broken are higher. However on hourly charts, Nifty has created a Lower Top Lower Bottom formation which will not augur well for bulls as it’s a bearish sign.

It is advisable for traders to trade after an authentic confirmation on charts with strict stop losses.

Supports – 7830-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Bear hai ke Maanata Nahi... ! ! !

Hi All,

After a sharp run on Monday and a smart pull back yesterday, Nifty did not cross the levels of 7900.

As posted earlier, the bias would have changed to positive only and only above 7900 levels, which didn’t happen.

Now, SGX Nifty is down by more than 125 points, suggesting a weak opening for Dalal Street.

Which means Nifty is likely to open near the Rising Window zone near 7738-7753 which will act as a crucial support for it going forward, the bias for short / midterm will change negative below 7670 (the possibility of which looks skimpy) levels.

Read more on Rising window Pattern

 

The opening fall in markets can be used as buying opportunity provided we have some bullish confirmations on charts..... I will update you the same.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7830-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

As expected, Bears Hammered ! ! !

Hi All,

After creating a Hammer and surpassing it (7840), Nifty rallied sharply by rigorously defeating bears.

On Daily charts, Nifty still has lower top lower bottom formation and the same will be nullified when Nifty surpasses 7890-7900 levels.

So, 7890-7900 becomes a crucial level now to watch out for, though the level has become weak, it will still act as a resistance.

Any short positions should be with a strict stop loss above 7900 levels on spot.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7850-7810-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Super Hammer comes to rescue Bulls ! ! !

Hi All,

After sliding down to 7670 levels from the high of close to 8000, Nifty on daily charts has given a Supper Hammer Pattern (Green Hammer) which is a bullish indicator.

Read more about Hammer

However the same is confirmed only when markets surpass the high of Friday, i.e. 7738-40, also it will gain further momentum above 7780 levels which is an area of resistance.

Moreover, the Hammer is formed on a Daily Supertrend Line (Trend Following Indicator), which increases its significance.

In a nutshell, if Nifty manages to stay above the key levels of 7740-80, we can expect a sustainable pull back in Nifty with targets near 7890-7930-7990

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7710-7660-7580-7500

Resistances – 7750-7780-7860-7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Do you know ? ? ?

# Market Facts #


Two consecutive down years is rare. Rarer still is three consecutive down years. As per Mr Faber, it's happened just six times in 378 years, or less than 2% of the time. Four consecutive down years occurs only 1% of the time. And five down years in a row almost never happens. 

A Ji, O Ji its a Doji ! ! !

Hi All,

Though Nifty managed to close above 7700 mark, for a while it had violated that level, we were fortunate enough to book a small loss in the Long trade initiated at 7725-30....

Going forward, the bias for markets looks negative, especially after looking at weekly charts. A Doji pattern has got formed near a Super Trend resistance area which is surely a bearish sign and a close below the low of Doji, i.e. 7842 (7788 to be on a safer conservative side) will mean lower targets for Nifty near 7600-7500 will get opened. (Please refer the chart)

Today and tomorrow’s trading will be very crucial for markets for weekly closing and any hope for bulls will only occur if we have strong positive days, however the probability for the same looks meager.

Levels to watch out for today -

Supports - 7690-7660-7585

Resistances- 7730-7750-7780-7800-7860-7890-7910

Cheers.....

Hrishi