Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Kuch corrections achhe hote hai!!!!

Hi All,

Nifty is witnessing a Blood Bath right now and is down by more than 160 points (i.e. 2%). However the over all trend for short term will still remain positive until 8180 level is not broken, and till such time I personally feel that every dip is a buying opportunity...

Earlier this week, markets surpassed a crucial levels of 8510, though with not so surprising volumes,  but if able to hold on to 8200-8150 mark, Nifty can see a bounce and then higher levels of 8650-8800 in short to mid term. however a low volume breakout of crucial resistance of 8510 still remains a crucial hurdle going forward, which means the next up move should be with heavier volumes than the recent volumes....

Traders are advised to trade cautiously with STRICT stop losses for intraday or delivery trades as markets may witness higher volatility going forward, the IV is already up today by 11% @ 18.12%

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, June 29, 2015

Window closed!!!!

Hi all,

Due to weak cues from global markets, Nifty had gaped down drastically in the opening trades today, thanks to the Bearish Engulf Pattern, discussed in a post of last week, Nifty bounced back from yet another Candlestick Pattern support called Rising Window..... the support area was 8180-8200......

A rising window getting closed by a strong candle, like today is surely an even to cheer for bulls, however resistances near 8400-8430 are likely prevail.

On the lower side 8180-8150 now becomes a crucial level and breaking of it can take Nifty even  lower because that will be like a Lower Bottom on daily charts which is negative sign as per Dow Theory...

Cheers!!!

Greece Crisis Explained!!!!

Hi All,

Nice link explaining the Greece Crisis and also elaborated view on European Crisis as a whole... Worth watching.....


Regards

Hrishi

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Hopes still alive....

Hi all,

As discussed yesterday, Nifty did support exactly near the 8330 level mentioned yesterday, and sharply bounced back from there to create a new higher mark at 8423...

Which means hopes for bulls are still alive as Nifty also closed higher today on daily charts which is a good sign as per Dow Theory.... A close below 8360 can be a sign of worry for bulls...

After surpassing 8450-8470 & 8510 levels convincingly, Nifty can travel higher till 8650-8800

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Caution - Slippery road ahead....!!!

Hi All,

After rallying for 8 consecutive sessions, Nifty closed the day in red ahead of FNO expiry today.

Now, on the daily charts we have a bearish Engulfing Candle which is a sign of concerns for bulls.

With global uncertainty over Greece issues, a level to watch out for bulls will be 8330,  below which 8250 can be very certain, 8300-8250 will act as short term reversal for the immediate up trend.

Tomorrow, on account of expiry markets are certainly going to be very volatile, hence traders are advised to trade with lot of caution....

The upside resistances are same near 8470-8510.... on surpassing that Nifty can head towards the journey till 8650-8800....

It's surely a Pray time for Bulls, Nifty should not break key supports, because as mentioned earlier, support of 8000-7950 has become weak now and may not be able to stop the fall in Nifty if any....

Fingers crossed.....

Cheers

Hrishi

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

On a lighter note.... Another passion other than markets....!!!!

Hi All,
On a relaxing note, other than market one other passion which many of have is cricket, and off late a lot is been happening on that front, following is a nice article found on crictracker, putting it here as it is also what I think about MSD
(http://www.crictracker.com/an-open-letter-to-ms-dhoni-from-a-cricket-fan/)

An Open Letter to MS Dhoni from a Cricket Fan:

Dear Mahendra Singh Dhoni, 

Some say you had the share of luck which made you a successful captain, while some say you are just a cricketing freak, a few also feel that you have the tendency to pick your favourite players in the squad and benching the rest. Lastly, some of the so-called ‘fans’ even say that you are the cause of India’s dreadful performances in the foreign soils.

Well, to say the least, I do not fall under the niche of such plastic fans. Undoubtedly, the name MS Dhoni, the small-town boy rising to be one of the prominent leaders of Indian Cricket is no freak and I do admire you for your gigantic fruitful contributions for the Indian team which made us prouder as a Cricketing nation. So, as a token of gratitude, I would like to portray your prosperous stature thereby falsifying such inglorious comments.
At a time, when the Indian team lacked a genuine wicket keeping batsman, Dravid had to fulfill the job for the wicket keeper of the team. But it was MS Dhoni who revolutionized the stature of being a wicket keeper in the Indian team. In the initial days of your career, you simply defined aggression and pointed out the fact how brute-force while batting with apt hand-eye co-ordination can bring galore of boundaries without involving much of a feet movement. In fact, your innings of 183 runs off 145 deliveries with 15 fours and 10 sixes against Sri Lanka in 2005 was enough to define your class as a batsman. In fact, a player with 8551 ODI runs at an average of over 52 by himself, speaks of the genuine class.
There was a time in 2007, post to the Natwest series in England, when Dravid resigned as the captain of the team, the fate of the Indian Cricket team looked to be in a state of jeopardy. It was you who shouldered the team and led right from the front as an example. In 2007 T20 World Cup, next to the woeful performance by the Indian side in the ICC World Cup earlier that year, none in the team went forward to take the responsibility to lead the squad. But there was one man, who led the team to a majestic triumphant march for the ICC World T20. It was you. Such incredible decisions in the ICC World T20 did reflect the potential in you to lead the country to further glories.
And after the ODI captaincy was vested upon your shoulders, you shone to take the team to an emphatic CB Series win in 2008 in Australia. Indian team achieved distinct levels of success under your leadership and were crowned as the number one test team in 2009. Obviously, the team did not become number one solely under Dhoni’s captaincy. But it is a fact that Dhoni carried on with the baton quite brilliantly to take India to that stature.
A lot has been talked about the retention of your favourite players. What some people fail to believe that you have immense faith upon your players. There was a time back in 2009-10 when Virat Kohli was repeatedly included in the playing XI despite his poor form and we all know how mature a batsman he has become now. Hadn’t he got those chances, he would not have been able to become the batsman he is now.
Owing to Yuvraj Singh’s poor form, the selectors opted to drop him from the World Cup squad in 2011 but you stood by Yuvraj’s side and included him and the rest is history. There was a time when Rohit Sharma’s place in the team was thoroughly criticized but just like a shielding branch, you gave him chances, even promoted him to open the batting and it paid off, the guy now has two double centuries in ODIs.
Also, you did show the respect you have for the seniors on a number of times. For instance, you asking Sourav to captain the side in his farewell test for 30 minutes or so on the final day. You did rely upon Sachin, Dravid, Laxman when India were having tough times. Still, due to lack of adequate pace bowlers and the lack of form of many of the players, India lost quite a number of matches overseas. But on that note, it got to be mentioned that India did win the Champions Trophy in 2013 on the English soils at circumstances when the cricketing sphere of the country was clouded by the stains of spot fixing scandals.
From being a fearless, hard-hitting batsman, you changed your nature as a batsman and sacrificed your pinch-hitting instincts in order to cope up with the role of a dependable batsman for the sake of the team. It was you who defended the penultimate ball of the last over in the semi final of ICC World T20, 2014 against South Africa just to ensure that Virat Kohli strikes the winning shot. It was under your leadership that India, after performing rather poorly against Australia prior to 2015 World Cup, went on to win 7 matches on a trot in the tournament. And statistically too, you stand to be the only Indian captain with over 100 wins in ODIs, the next best captain after Ricky Ponting with 11 consecutive wins in World Cup matches.
Haters will find many reasons to criticize but judging by the logical aspects of the game, your contributions to the Indian team is priceless to be brief. You held the baton and kept the team on the track when the team was through an era of change with players like Sachin, Dravid, Sourav, Laxman and Kumble retiring from international cricket. It would be somewhat foolish to describe your passion for the game. You preferred your national duty to personal issues and did not even see your daughter for over two months after she was born. That is the respect you have for your team and profession.
You are a role model for thousands of small-town youngsters who dream big. You stand to be a reality check for them that dreams do come true. From being a Railway ticket inspector, you emerged to be one of the most successful Indian captains. Very few people in the World possess such knowledgeable cricketing brains and you are a hard core cricketing mind packed with sheer coolness.
India would not have been the same cricketing nation if you were not there. Cricket hasn’t seen such a selfless leader as you who dedicates victories as team efforts and takes the entire blames on himself in case of failures. You deserve thorough respect from the billion fans, whom have had a thousand reasons to smile just because you picked cricket over all other priorities of your life.
Thank You MS, now words are enough to express your contribution but, I want to Thank you right from the bottom of my heart for everything that you have, silently and selflessly done for Indian cricket.
Yours sincerely,
A Cricket Fan.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Market update - Time to rejoice

Hi all,

As expected Nifty, after convincingly surpassing 8125-8130 to 8190 level traveled swiftly till 8300 now....

Those who have taken long positions near 8070-8100 can boo part profits now and trail SL near 8180

On the higher side now a remarkable hurdle is near 8470-8510, before that 8300-8320 needs to cross and then 8400 can be a psychological resistance.... A close above 8316-8320 can see Nifty rise continuing further

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, June 18, 2015

The Eliminator... Market update...


Hi All,

After reacting to the 8000-7950 levels, Markets faced resistance near a crucial level of 8130-8170-75.

After yesterday’s key announcement by FED, there are no fresh triggers in markets hence it is expected to trade very cautiously with resistances being near 8160-8175-8200.

Short term bias which changed near the bottom of 8k, will continue to flourish if Nifty surpasses 8160-75, and on a successful breakout of 8200 one can think of midterm targets of 8500-8800

On the lower side however, 8040-8000-7940 are key supports a break of which can take Nifty to 7800-7700-7500, which may be called as a correction bottom for the entire up move.

Bulls and bears are really fighting it hard for past few weeks now and therefore its a wait n watch scenario to check who eliminates the other....

Cheers

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

FED Reserve Rate Announced

Hi All,

FED leaves rates unchanged....

Downgrade 2015 GDP Outlook

There could be rate hike in September...may be 2 rate hikes in 2015

Nasdaq 1%up from the bottom but leaves the positive territory... Negative again

Sgx down 21

Looks like yesterday n today markets discounted the FED Status quo.

Maekets sharply reacted at a crucial level of 8130-60 as posted yesterday and closed below 8100. Tomorrow very crucial... and 7940 will be do or die for bulls

Detailed Note....

US Fed: Voted 10-0 For Fed Funds Rate Action

U.S. FED  : Economy expanding 'moderately,'  job growth picked up

Fed leaves rate unchanged

U.S. growth is really weak but surely it will rebound so we’re going to try to hike rates this year anyway. Yellen.

FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR

Initial reaction after FED >>> Market turned higher in US, Gold / Silver rally.

Fed sees inflation below 2% target for foreseeable future – but still holds onto idea that it will ‘gradually’ return to target
Fed leaves rate unchanged . Upgrades economic improvement outlook. Fed offers No explicit wordings on liftoff timing. Downgrades 2015 GDP outlook.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Bottom Fishing....

Hi All,

Markets were very uncertain for past couple of days but with the list of mixed cues they did not break crucial supports near 7940.....

Currently Nifty trades at 8047 and looks like if 8162-8200 is taken out nifty should not have any hurdle before 8500 at least.

As per simple Down theory, Nifty should close convincingly above 8125-30 mark to start its journey to higher levels of 8200-8500...

Lets wait and watch, a low risk high reward  (however a moderate level of probability) trading opportunity...

Cheers

Hrishi


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Morning Star on Daily.....

Hi All,

Personal View -

As posted earlier, markets took support near 8k mark and have seen a sharp bounce. Now 8200 holds the key for further upside. Above 8200, 8510 will be the next mid term support and above that it looks very certain that 8000 might not be broken.

Technical observation on Nifty on on daily charts has made a Morning Star pattern which is supposed to be very bullish and which earlier had caused a rally from 8000 to 8500 levels in last month... However today's high of 8150-8160 should be take out and sustained for the upward moment to continue....

Cheers....


Market update - Flirting with 8k

Hi All,

As expected market again took support near 8k mark and has witnessed yet another sharp bounce of around 100 points, however the support has now become very week and if Nifty again is retraced to the levels of 8k the chances of it being broken are higher.

On the upside, 8135-8200 are key resistance areas where a new selling can emerge, however if Nifty manages to surpass and importantly sustain these levels the doors for further upside are wide open.

Since markets are trading with huge volatility. its advisable to stay cautious and trade with strict SL for any trade long / short.

My personal view is any sizable upside only visible if 8200 is taken out convincingly. and on the lower side triggering 8k-7950 mark can be a panic button for all the bulls currently long in markets

Cheers

Friday, June 5, 2015

Bulls are back

Hi All,

As per earlier post, Nifty surpassed yesterday's high of 8160 and is trading above it that too after witnessing a sharp sell off in the morning.

Looks like Bulls are back at least for near term with SL below 8050..... Final levels to watch are still pegged at 8000-7950.....

Thanks to the daily hammer, still for confirmation today and Monday should trade and preferably close above 8160....

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Hammer!!!

Hi All,

Finally seems like there is small respite for the bulls. Nifty managed to closed and create a Hammer (Bullish Candlestick pattern) on daily charts so now tomorrow it is advisable that it goes above 8161-8165 levels and sustains above it, closing above that mark will really fancy the chances of Nifty getting near 8200-8400....

Cheers


Market Update....

Hi all,

After RBI's 25 bps rate cut failed to cheer the markets, the picture looks very gloomy now as even the forecast for monsoons are not encouraging.

Still the bias remains cautiously up with strong support near 8080-8000-7950.... Below 8089-80 the daily charts will have a lower bottom formation which is surely not a good sign for bulls. And finally 8000-7950 are the KEY areas to watch out for if we want to have any upward rally in near future....

Cheers

Monday, June 1, 2015

El Nino.... A nice article Impact Of El Nino Induced Monsoon On The Indian Economy

Hi All,

Just came across a nice article on El Nino Effect....

Worth reading....

Of late, the recent forecast of low rainfall during the monsoon is a concern for many. The onus of this goes to El Nino acronym of El Nino Southern Oscillation that a country experiences in a cycle of three to seven years. It occurs when there is an interaction between the warm water of Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. This causes different weather events ranging from floods to droughts across the gold. El Nino meant The Little Boy and was first recognized in the coastal areas of South America during the seventeenth century. Monsoon in India influences Australia and different regions in South East Asia. It impacts the economy of the country and that of neighboring countries.

GibbonIOD_2
[Image Source : Indian Express ]
Effect on agriculture
This prediction has also raised eyebrows of farmers and economists alike. The agricultural sector of the country is likely to suffer from crop damage and unseasonal rain due to this phenomenon. In the country, agriculture depends on monsoon largely due to the requirement of water. As consequences of El Nino, there will be sparse rainfall, and it will impact the agriculture. Owing to this, there will be a rise in food prices and inflation. The ace banking authority in the country has stated in the first installment of monetary policy the chances of inflation.
Rise in food price
As per the bi-monthly policy, if there is less rainfall than the normal level then there will be fluctuation in the price of fruits and vegetables in comparison to regular patterns. It is expected that this will have an impact on the overall economy of the country. A noted international investment bank has warned officials of the country against the rise in food price due to El Nino. Few researchers of noted universities have predicted the country will face the adverse effect of El Nino. The absence of large reservoirs that is effective in moderating impact of drought on the supply of food will add to the adversity.
Consequences faced last time
Going by the historical data, last years the rainfall was lower than what the meteorological department forecasted. As a result, there was a steep rise in the process of potatoes, onions and fruits. Last time the country faced El Nino, it resulted in drought and a steep rise in the price of food items. Agriculture contributes to almost fourteen percent of the Indian economy. Any adverse weather condition leads to a low growth of GDP and causes inflation. El Nino seems to impact the economy of the country directly. It will reduce the production of sugarcane, rice, cotton, oilseeds and corn to name a few and increases the price of crops in the domestic market.
Mitigation of this effect
Now, the only sigh of relief is a working paper by the ace international monetary organization. It will help to dispel fear and anguish related to the impact of El Nino on the Indian economy. As per the report, in last one decade, there has been a reduction in the contribution of agriculture to gross domestic product, and this will mitigate the adverse effect of El Nino on the economy. There has also been an expansion in total agricultural land, and this helps in lowering its impact on the economy.
Link - http://www.marketcalls.in/economy/impact-of-el-nino-induced-monsoon-on-the-indian-economy.html?utm_content=buffercfcf0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Nifty bounced back from the neckline....

Hi all,

As per my post couple of days back, Nifty exactly took support near 8270 and gave a mild bounce back. The bounce should continue hereafter and go markets should go further up above 8330-8370 levels t call it a as a meaningful bottom....

Cheers

Power to PTC!!!!

Hi all,

Just a rare stock observation.....

PTC... CMP 67.30

The stock is creating an Inverted HNS pattern on hourly charts.... One can enter long above 67.6 with SL below 64.5... Targets 70.2-73

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

What to expext in one year from Govt.

Came across A good piece from wsj article today (A forwarded msg)

"Neelkanth Mishra, a Credit Suisse strategist, said his client presentations now include a map of India with each state labeled with the name of the country whose population is most similar. Maharashtra state’s population of 110 million makes it the size of Mexico. Uttar Pradesh, with 200 million people, is like Brazil.

“For one person sitting in Delhi to change Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Germany, France, Turkey and Canada in six months or one year is, I think, a completely irrational expectation,” Mr. Mishra said."

Cheers

Market update - Nifty touching the neckline....

Hi all,

as per my earlier updates Nifty had created an inverted  HNS pattern (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.in/2015/05/inverted-hns-beakout-bulls-are-back.html) on daily charts, which is a bullish sign. As mentioned in that markets have now corrected a bit and are trading near the neckline of the pattern near 8270-8250...

This offers a nice buying opportunity with very small risk....

The short term bias will continue to remain positive till the time markets are above 8080-8100 levels, for midterm bias 8000-7950 are crucial levels to watch out for

Please find below the chart for the event...


Regards

Hrishi