#Market Update - Bullish Island

Hi All,

Nifty did not act as per our expectations in the last post, Ray of Hope, and broke the previous lows near 10850 levels...

Yet again on daily charts, Nifty has given a bullish indication, a set up of on 10th, 11th and 12th October 2018 is very similar to the Bullish Island pattern It's not the exact pattern formation and a look alike as there are no gaps as per the pattern definition....

As per the supports and resistances, Nifty should ideally travel to 10750 odd levels basis this, and it has already touched 10700 levels a couple of days before, however it corrected sharply from there and currently trade near 10300 mark.

Let me share, what I have been doing personally in the recent bottoms and a small bounce thereof (from 10866 to 11000 and then from 10130 to 10700)... At every dip of such kind, I look forward towards heavily beaten down bluechip / quality stocks and take a No exposure position on them with an intention of selling it whenever they give me a decent % increase, but with also predetermined stop loss below the recent lows... Likewise, I have booked small 2 to 5% or in some cases, even 15% profits in stocks like, PEL, PNB, DHFL, Bajaj Finance, HDFC AMC, Jubilant Foods, LIC Housing, Lupin, Marico, TBZ and Yes Bank. However there are some stocks which are yet to perform and I am still holding them.

Now, in the absence of any major trigger (especially with a positive outcome), its advisable for traders not to take positions with exposures for more than a few days and keep booking profits as markets are very volatile and the fluctuation is expected to increase on account of state election results in almost a month's time.

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Hi all,

As posted in the last blog of Bears Attack, thanks to multiple negative signals, Nifty lost it all after breaking 11630 and plummeted by almost 800 points to create a bottom near 10866.

People who are short now should look at booking some profits, and in fact can even think of taking a bull mode.

Thanks to a Bullish Harami pattern on daily charts, looks like that the bottom can be in place near the recent lows of 10850, at least for short term, and after such a sharp fall in the markets, even its fair to expect a small bounce, if not a trend change. Also, the recent bottom, is exactly in a rising window (upward gap between 9&10th July) on daily charts, which supports a small bounce. (Please refer the graph below). Moreover, the candle on the day of sharp sell off, is actually a candle with bullish pressure, looking similar to a Hammer pattern

The only thing against the bull yesterday was that the market breadth, with Advance Decline ratio of 7:11, which favours the bulls

However, risky traders are advised to take a long trade, if and only if Nifty surpasses 11100 mark with stop loss below the supports of 10850 and with targets near the resistances of 11200-11350-11520-11600.

Since the stop loss is very wide (almost of 250 points), one can enter partially above 11100 and even buy on dips, if any, as per one's risk appetite.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bears Attack ! ! !

Hi All,

Markets continued their upward journey and kept on creating all time highs for past few months. Nifty hit 11760.2 where as Sensex touched 38989.75, missing the 39k mark buy just 11 odd points.

But after such huge rally of more than 1000 points from 10500 levels, Nifty daily chart finally showing some signs of weakness.

Nifty showed a bearish engulf pattern last week, after which it again tried to create yet another high on Friday, however was not successful in breaching the 11760 mark. And today there is yet another bearish engulf candle and a sizable red candle on the daily chart, which means, clearly bears are making their presence felt. Nifty also broke 10639 mark today, there by creating a lower bottom.

So,

1. Nifty has given a Bearish Engulf set up on 28&29 August
2. Another bearish engulf pattern today
3. Broken the immediate support near 11639
4. Created a lower top lower bottom formation on daily charts

This is surely a cautious signal for bulls and any mid term longs should be held with tight trailing stops.

At the current price of 11639, the near term bias looks negative now with targets near 11590-11530-11480 and with resistance (stops) above the life time highs of 11760-10770. The short term bias only becomes bearish if Nifty sustains below 11480.

Traders are advised to take positions accordingly for preferred time frames.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Laaaaaao Bazaaar, Nifty Saade 11 Hajaaaar - New Life high

Update - 

Andhra bank... Book profit of around 6.5%,  near 34.5, initiated near 32.4
Castrol ... Book small 1% profit near 159...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bull Hai ke maanta Nahi ! ! !

Hi All,

Laaaaaaao Bazaaaaar Nifty Sava 11 Hajaaaar

The bullish leg, which started after the bottom near 10550, continued strong and now Nifty is at a Life time high.....

The longs initiated near 10630, which were trailing with a stop below 10900, are still on, and the short position was not initiated as markets never broke the 10900 levels.

Looks like the now the next pit stop for bulls can be around 10400-10550, the target based on Symmetrical Continuation Triangle mentioned in the earlier post.

However, as the talk on the Dalal street goes, though markets are at All time high, hopes are at all time low. Though indices scaled life highs, individual stocks are far away from the highs. Even in last one year, where Nifty is up by 11%, only 5 stocks have contributed to take it up by 14%, rest 45 stocks are down by 3%, which is not a good sign at all. Also, Nifty upmove is not strongly backed by corporate numbers, and as a result Nifty is trading at high / costlier PE multiples.

However these deviations are a part of the game and surely not a reason to short for chartists. The long initiated earlier can now be held with a trail stop loss below 11150.

As usual, will advise traders to not get caught in the fight between Bulls and Bears and trade with strong chart confirmations with strict stop losses.

#MarketUpdate - Bulls might halt journey so far, it's a Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted in the previous post, it's better to play safe after a nice bounce of almost 5%, and accordingly Nifty rose strongly yesterday, however took resistance near the life time high area of 11069 to 11172.

Moreover, Nifty has created a Shooting Star pattern on daily charts, which is bearish in nature, hence the gap up support near 10970-11000 becomes very crucial for bears, if prices sustain below the same, or may be 10940 levels, one can expect Nifty to drift down further. In fact today, it gave all its gains in the morning trades and went in to negative territory, however took support near the gap up window of 10999. (Chart below for illustration)

Long positions created (partial holdings) near 10630 (based on Bullish separating Lines pattern on daily chart) can be no trailed with a stop loss below 10900 levels.

In a nutshell, I would reiterate what we discussed in the last post about, BULLS, BEARS and PIGS. So let's try not to be too greedy about markets, let it decide its further trend, and then participate accordingly, till then be with proper money management....

Cheers

Happy Weekend!!!

#MarketUpdate - Love Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

A different heading for the post right?, will tell you at the end why I named it like this....

However, as posted earlier last week in Ray of Hopes for Bulls, though expected a small bounce from 10630 levels, Nifty witnessed a sharp bounce of around 3%, thanks to Bullish separating lines, Supertrend support, Hourly Hammer and daily trend line support.

On the daily charts, Nifty is showing a breakout of the Triangle mentioned few days back (similar to ascending triangle, which is Bullish), and the target for the same can be near 11350-11400, which means a Life time high for Nifty. Refer the image...

So, as per that, those who are already long near 10630, as advised earlier, can continue their positions, with a trailed stop to 10795. However a fresh long position now, would not be advisable, as I personally feel, Triangles are good,  but only as a postmortem, as lot of times one needs to adjust the lines as per the movements (even the earlier post triangle had to be adjusted now), and usually prices tend to retrace back to the lines.

So any longs now should only be on dips, provided there is a supporting bullish evidence for it.

However, Nifty closing above the prior top of 10929.2, is a bullish sign, but importantly it should sustain these levels. Next pit stop for bulls can be near the psychological mark of 11k and then the resistances can be 11060-11125 and finally 11171-11200 which is the Life time high.

On the lower side supports would be near 10910-10860-10800-10710-10600 and 10550...

Now you would wonder, as to why I name this post as Love Triangle, that's because, as they say....

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered, 

which means, the in fight of bulls and bears, participants with excessive greed, usually get slaughtered..., hence advise you all to trade with strict stop loss and dont trade with a supportive confirmation, either bullish / bearish

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Ray of hopes for Bulls ! ! !

Update - 11.35 AM 3rd July 2018...

As expected.... bulls got a small bounce of around 70-80 basis points in Nifty, conservatively one can book part profits and trail stop loss near cost....

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Next pit stop... 10550 ! ! !

Update, 28th June 2018 @ 1600 houes

Target of 10550, almost achieved with the low of the day at 10557.

On, hourly charts, Nifty has given a Bullish Hammer, and prices should sustain above 10620-25 to see a bounce. Will update the blog, if there is good near term buying opportunity.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Buyers peep out of a Window . . .

Hi All,

As expected in the earlier post, Shooting Star... Ready to Fall?, After drifting down below 10770, (the low of Shooting Star like bearish candle on the weekly chart), Nifty quickly drifted down to crucial 10700 levels.

Looks like Nifty took support in the range of 10670-10710 (Upward trend line support, upward gap support, 61.8% retracement of the last rally from 10550 to 10900).

Moreover, on 19th June when Nifty drifted down to 10700 levels, hourly charts showed as couple of bullish patterns (Harami & Hammer coupled with a RSI divergence) which would have given a near term long entry above 10740-10750, however with a very small upside of 10790 to 10800.

Nifty, though not after a sustained downtrend which is advised, had created a Bullish Harami Pattern and going forward, will face resistance near 10800-10840-10870-10900-10930, where as supports will continue to be near 10700-10660-10610-10550.

The bias continues to be indecisive, and traders are advised to keep strict stop losses as per the resistances and supports mentioned above for short or long positions respectively.

One sign of concern crops up on hourly charts, as if Nifty breaks the crucial supports near 10660-10700, it would then break a neckline of a probable Head and Shoulder Pattern, which might target Nifty, even below the earlier mentioned levels of 10550 in last post.
(Please see the chart below for reference)

On the higher side, bulls can only take full control above 10930-10950, and then target, may be the life time high, probability of this however might be low on account of absence of any positive trigger in domestic / global markets. 10840-50 becomes a key level for intraday to be taken out for bulls to proceed further...

Traders are advised to trade in these sideways environment with strict stop losses..

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Shooting Star ..... Ready to Fall?

Hi All,

As expected in the previous #MarketUpdate post, Nifty, after breaking out of the triangle rallied till 10900 levels, but failed to cross the important mark of 10930-10950, which was the weekly significant top.

Markets were giving mixed signals leading to the indecisive bias, and it now continued with one more signal on daily charts, a Shooting Star Candlestick Chat pattern, which has bearish implications. So if Nifty breaks and sustains below the supports of 10760-10750, it might drift down quickly to next near term supports near 10690-10700, and breaking this level will take Nifty towards 10550 mark. Even the upward trend line for the probable Ascending Triangle would be near 10650-10670, hence that area becomes very crucial to decide the upcoming mood.

For Bulls, there is an upward gap on daily charts from  10698 to 10709, which should act as a strong support zone on closing basis, a close below that level may lead Nifty to lower levels mentioned above.

Plan of action will be short below the supports mentioned, with targets of aforesaid supports with a stoploss above 10950...

Please see the chart below for reference...

Cheers...
Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Now - Bulls at a pit stop / Finish Line ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, in Nifty Harami post couple of weeks back, the bullish pattern worked for Nifty and after surpassing crucial levels of 10580-600, Nifty rallied smartly and currently trading near another selling pit stop of 10800. Bulls, who have bought near 10600 are advised to book profits of more than 2% or trail stop loss.

The cautious bias is on account of confluence of confusing factors which leads to a indecisive bias for the benchmark index going forward...

Bullish reasons -

• Simple higher top higher bottom formation after breaching 10770 levels
• A strong gap up opening today, meaning supports for intraday and near term would be near 10680-50
• A kind of symmetrical triangle breakout, which is a continuation pattern
• In spite of bearish patterns, weekly chart shows 2 strong bullish pressure candles

Bearish reasons - 

• A bearish engulf on daily charts (1st and 4th June candles), though the high is surpassed, prices have not been closed above 10770.30, so, if prices close below 10770 levels in spite of such a strong opening, it can then mean a first knock of bears
• A weekly Bearish Engulf formation with final resistance near 10930 and close above that will negate the pattern and its bearish consequences.

I personally feel (for a short term view)

1. For bulls, any sizable upside can be expected only above 10930-950 levels.  

2. For bears to take control, firstly a close below 10770 will be a welcome move followed by break of 10680 levels to close the bullish gap and finally a convincing breach of 10550-540 levels to give a lower bottom formation.

My personal bias still remains bullish (thanks to higher top higher bottom) but fresh additions to be only done above the key resistances of 10800-10930. hence those who bought Nifty based on Harami pattern, can stay long after booking small profits and trailing stop loss to cost

Cheers - 

Chart for illustrations - 

#MarketUpdate - Nifty Harami .... Wait not a Bad word....

Hi All,

Did not use any bad word for the title of the post, it is a bullish pattern which is formed on the chart..

As mentioned in the earlier post, Leee Bazaar, Nifty saade 10 Hajaar, Nifty almost reached the pit stop of 10370-10400.

However, at least looks like that markets have given a ray of hope for bulls by creating a Bullish Harami Pattern, which suggest there can be an upmove also, Nifty took support near 50% mark of the entire rally from 9950-10900.

However, I am still not fully convinced for a bounce, as Harami is not as stronger as some of the other patterns like, Hammer / Engulf, etc and more importantly, though index have bounced back by almost 100 points from today's low, the market depth was not supporting this move where declines were more than advances, which, particularly after such a bounce back, is not a good sign (usually a strong pull back in prices should be accompanied by strong advancing stocks).

Going forward, I suggest, any long position to be entered only after one more valid bullish confirmation, even on the hourly charts may be, and an upmove can be visible above 10570-1580 levels.

Areas to watch out for Nifty -

Supports - 10440-10400-10380-10320-10250-10150
Resistances - 10560-10580-10620-10680-10730-10800-10930

Cheers,

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Leeee Bazaar Nifty Saade 10 Hajaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier post on Bears Fight Out ! ! !, the markets gave off after breaching 10780 levels and tanked near the crucial area of 10440-10500 now.

Below this area 10370-10400 would be the next Pit stop for bears as daily Shooting Star coupled with a weekly Bearish Engulf pattern suggests more pain in the markets. Even a close below 10584, the Super trend indicator changed to red on daily chart suggesting a start of a down trend as the change is also supported by price closing below the lower Bollinger band

There is no sign of respite for the bulls as of now and going long does not make any sense on account of lack of any material bullish signal.

Today's price action should be crucial and I feel a last chance for bulls to fight back. If yesterday's low and the support area mentioned earlier is not violated and Nifty gains / sustains an upward momentum, bulls can be in a position to take control, till then not at all advisable to be on the long side... An intraday level to watch out for bulls would be 10550-10580, above that Nifty might gain momentum...

Levels to watch out for short to mid term - 

Supports - 1040-10440-10380-10320-10250-10150 (based on retracements as there are no major price bottoms till 9950)

Resistances - 10620 - 10680-10730- 10800- 10930

#MarketUpdate - Bears fight out ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in yesterday's post, after breaking 10780-10760, the bulls gave it off completely and Nifty fell below the 10600 levels.

Now, on daily charts, Nifty has created a Lower top, lower bottom formation which is a bearish sign, if prices sustain here then the next pit stop for bears can be near 10530-10490...

Also, at current levels,  weekly chart shows a Bearish engulf pattern, which is even severe bearish sign and breaking 10500-10450 levels can even change the mid term bias...

Traders, who went short near 10750 levels can book part profits and trail stop losses at cost....
Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Proved again - Buy the Rumour... Sell the Fact ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry a post after a long time. Was caught up with something...

Markets have rallied handsomely, and have bounced back by almost 10% from the bottom of ~9950 levels.

The rally can be taken as a discounting factor for the BJP's Karnataka win, and what it means is post the results, which are out now and are better than expectations favouring BJP, it might be a time to cool off a bit.

This might happen on account of an analogy explained multiple times earlier.... Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact, where prices anticipate the outcome of an event in advance and move in the direction of the expectation, only to do reverse after the actual outcome.

Also, today's high near 10910 is the 78.6% retracement for the entire fall from 11200 to 9950, and hence the last resort for bears to strike back, at least for a short period of time. Nifty closed near 10800 levels, and the daily chart shows a Shooting Star like pattern, which is bearish in nature. (Please refer the chart below)

Traders need to wait and watch for tomorrow to take further action. Today's low becomes crucial support support and Nifty sustaining below 10780-10760 can take it further down till 10680-10600.

With the simple Dow theory tenants, a move below 10600 will create a lower bottom on daily charts triggering even a short term bearishness...

Cheers

Hrishi

Market Update - Short Nifty ! ! !

Update on 13th April 2017

Please exit Nifty

#MarketUpdate - Leeeeeeee Bazaaaaaaar ... Welcome 10 Hajaaaaar ! ! !

Hi All,

Sorry for the late update.

But as we have been discussing, Nifty broke the bulls and achieved our predicted target of 10000... However, gave a strong bounce of around 200 points from the bottom of 9950....

The bias still remains negative, with plan of action being sell on rise. any meaning full upside from hereon is only possible above 10230-10250 levels. 200 DSMA (Daily Simple Moving Average) is near 10114 and 40 WSMA (Weekly) is near 10210, a sustained close above these levels could mean a possible trend reversal.

Till then the important levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10130-10090-10040-10000-9940
Resistance - 10210-10250-10350-10450-10500

From the time Nifty created a Life time high near 11171, it has been creating a series of Lower Tops-Lower Bottoms, so 10227.30 level becomes very crucial as it is the recent top on daily charts (21st Mar 2018).

Hence, risky traders can go short with a stop loss above 10250 (based on daily price top and daily & weekly Moving Average resistance)

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - It's a Hat-Trick ! ! !

Hi All,

Once again markets proved, that "Price discounts everything"

On 12th March, Nifty rose by almost 200 points, thanks to global optimism and some short term bullish indicators (Hammer pattern) on daily charts and post markets hours, positive key Economic data surprised markets.

Adhering to a popular market analogy of "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact", Nifty gained marginally on the next day, and closed almost flat, thus giving a selling pressure candle on daily charts near the resistances mentioned in earlier post, which was followed by 3 consecutive wins by bears, today's massive fall of 165 being the most comprehensive of all.

After flirting with the critical resistance of 10460 on 13th March, for less than an hour (high of 10478), Nifty could not sustain higher levels and traded with the negative bias for last two days, around 1% lower than the recent high of 10478, today, bears comprehensively ruled the markets for almost the entire day, and hammered bulls by closing negative by more than 1.5%.

Going forward, the earlier mentioned supports near 10140-10070-10000 will be the next pit stop for bears, and hell might break loose, below the 10k mark as the next targets can be as scary as 9800-9600-9300....

On the higher side, a short term respite for bulls only and only if the recent high of 10478 is surpassed and sustained...

Cheers !!!

Have a great weekend....

#MarketUpdate - SHORT Term gain, MID term Pain...

Update @ 5.45 PM :

Both the key economic data, IIP and Inflation, surprised positively...

Guess today's rally was discontinued this....

Let's see if we get a repeat of Buy the Rumour ... Sell the Fact tomorrow....

Cheers....