As expected . . .! ! !

Hi All,

As expected 8500-8460 levels still intact..... impressive pull back from Bulls... Need to sustain above 8600-8620 levels for further upmove....

Traders who bought at lower levels can think of booking part profits near 8590-8620 levels. 8620-25 will be crucial level to watch out for…

Cheers

Update - 18th Oct 2016 1.10 PM

Book part profits for the Long initiated at 8560-75 @ 8615-20, trail stop loss for the remaining position.

Cheers

Bingo ! ! !

Nifty first target achieved , trail stop loss at cost……

Cheers

Bullishness Galore . . . ! ! ! Caution Advised

Hi All,

As posted yesterday, risky traders can be long in Nifty with SL below the supports mentioned....

In order to help bulls further, after an occurrence on hourly charts yesterday, Nifty daily chart also will show a Hammer looking today giving a bit more confidence to Bulls for the next week.

In fact following are the reasons bulls should enjoy the weekend quite peacefully (Please refer the charts for better understanding)

1. A Hammer on hourly charts yesterday
2. Hammer on Daily charts today
3. An ascending Triangle formed on intraday charts today which will breakout above 8600 levels (initial target of ~8660)
4. Yesterday and Today's candle resembles a Harami Pattern near a prior daily support
5. RSI on daily charts has taken support near 40 levels
6. One of the lowest RSI reading of 22-23 on hourly charts....

If all these factors dont scare bears and they continue to ruin the happiness, then really, RIP Bulls.... Ha ha ha...


Jokes apart, it fairly suggests that the Nifty can witness an upmove, if 8470-8500 levels are held on closing basis and Nifty sustains above 8600 levels, with targets of 8660-8690-8750-8810.

The one and only concern for Bulls will be that the said support zone of 8470-8550 is a prior tested zone and acted like support too many times earlier, hence a break of that can mean a strong downside as it will also mean a breakdown from the Head And Shoulders Pattern on daily charts, as mentioned yesterday...

So, it is advisable to be on the long side of the markets unless Nifty is above 8470-8550, with a strict stop loss below the supports.

Cheers

Head and Shoulders / All Clear of Bulls or Clinic Plus point for bears ? ? ?

Hi All,

As per the last update of 3rd October, Nifty rallied almost till 8800 levels without breaking the crucial zone of 8500-8550.

Now, after falling for 5th day in a row, Nifty is again near the supports of 8500-8550. However we need to understand that the support zone now is surely getting weaker after so many instances.

Also, what is more concerning for bears in a Head N Shoulder pattern unfolding on daily charts and a close below 8550 will really mean an All Clear of Bulls at least for short term.

However, again a small ray of hope for bulls is the Hammer on the hourly charts near these crucial support areas. The Hammer will get confirmed if Nifty crosses 8580 levels and sustains above the same for today,which in turn will mean that Daily closing will be above the Head and Shoulder neckline, negating it at least for today.

So in a nutshell, 8500-8550 remains to be crucial supports before bears star a complete dominance.

Risky traders can go Long in Nifty with SL below supports and targets on the higher side near 8650-8690-8750-8810.

Cheers

Art of Making Money: What is 370???

Art of Making Money: What is 370???: Congress's politics or a real need..... Article 370 is a temporary provision which gives special constitutional status to Jammu an...

Hope . . .

Hi All,

As expected in the last update, Nifty, after breaking the crucial zone of 8670-80, Nifty fell sharply by more than 200 points and took support near the important levels of 8550....

After a strong pullback on partially on Friday and today, the short term bias looks positive with supports below 8540-50....

The midterm outlook will still remain bearish due to a shooting star pattern on weekly charts, however, any damageable downfall can only be expected below 8400-8470 levels.

On the higher side now, 8730-8750 will act as crucial resistances for further up move and hence a Buy on decline strategy with stop loss below 8540-50 will be beneficial.

Cheers

Galore of Bearishness . . . Last hope for Bulls

Hi All,

In past few session we saw that Nifty is not able hold on to the higher levels and experiencing selling pressure.

There are multiple negative signs appearing on charts... Shooting star on weekly charts, a bearish engulf on daily charts near a gap resistance, RSI taking resistance near 60 mark on daily charts and a triangle breakdown on hourly charts (however the targets are almost achieved near 8800-8790....)

By keeping all this in mind, 8750-40 will be very crucial for Nifty for short term, the mid term bias will be positive if Nifty trades above 8680 levels... Even Nifty currently holds on to the trend line drawn on the hourly charts by connecting recent lows....

Below these levels, we can expect Nifty to fall further till 8620-8540-8500-8470 levels.

On the upper side 8820-8900-8920-9000 will be key hurdles for bulls.

Traders are advised to trade only after a confirming evidence on charts,,.....
Cheers

Is Demat A/c with Discount broker risky? A take by Capitalmarket..

Hi All,

Got this nice Whats App forward which I found very useful.... 

Always open a demat and trading account with reputed companies with high net worth. There have been enough instances of brokers going bankrupt. The event has affected their clients' holdings. The latest example is Unicon Securities. Here the broker used clients' holding as margin in derivatives trading and also used clients' margin money to buy real estate. In short, money kept as margin by clients for their own trading was siphoned off by the broker for trading in the name of the promoters or through the company's proprietary account. There are other instances of brokers going bust. For example, Click2trade, Vasanti Securities and Royal International.

This does not mean that your discount broker will also go bust. But investors need to understand the business model and analyze the risk of dealing with such companies. They may charge a flat fee per trade to their clients. The fee might be negligible compared with other brokers who charge a percentage of the traded value. Trades are executed only if the client has a credit balance in the trading account. Clients are not given any margins on their stock holdings. Thus, the discount broker might be making money by investing the clients' surplus money in fixed deposits (FDs) or liquid funds. In any case, the broker will not disclose where the money is invested. This makes opening a demat and trading account with a discount broker a risky proposition.

It is best to stay away from such brokers. Also, many times, the opportunity cost of the money parked in the broker's account is higher than the actual brokerage paid. For instance, a person trades once a month and parks Rs 10 lakh with a discount broker as trades take place only if he has a credit balance in the trading account. Now, the opportunity cost of this money if put in a bank FD is close to Rs 80000 a year. Most people pay lower brokerage than this to their brokers. The brokerage amount charged by a discount broker might be substantially low but the loss of opportunity huge. Thus, it is better to stick to a reputed broker with a sizable net worth.

Bears all around ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty witnessed selling pressure in the morning today, however gained a momentum to surpass the 8810 levels.

Going forward, resistance for Nifty is near 8825-8830 levels and Nifty has formed yet another Shooting star pattern (Bearish), on 15 minutes chart which will get confirmed if Nifty breaks 8810-8800 levels.

Nifty, below 8800 can go further down to touch prior swing lows near 8770-8750 levels.

Bulls need to be careful of any suspicious rise in Nifty without proper chart confirmation...

Cheers

The never-ending journey of Emotions... ! ! !

Completed 13 years in stock markets today...

I used to wonder, when prices go up or down and why?

But, realised that be "Reactive" and not Proactive in markets..

Let the markets tell you where it wants to go..

Treat them like the indicator on a Railway platform, to board the right train and enjoy this never-ending journey of Emotions...

This is my understanding of the markets in last 13 years.... And let me confess... it's just a drop in the ocean... Much much more to come....

An Evening Star . . .! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty trailed stopped out at 8800.....

As expected in the morning, Nifty took resistance near 8850-8860 mark and fell almost by 50 points since then.

On the hourly charts now, Nifty has firmed an Evening star like pattern which is bearish in nature, also the weekly chart observation of a shooting star pattern gives more reasons to worry for bulls now. Moreover if the markets closes near the 8800 levels, even the daily char will form a shooting star pattern.

On the lower side 8780-8750-8720 and finally 8675 will hold key for bears and if these levels are broken then a Trend reversal is almost certain...

Hence, it is advisable for bulls to book profits in Longs and wait for a suitable entry.

Cheers

Move wearily

Hi All,

Nifty longs trail Stop loss below 8770....

Cheers

On the move . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty up by more than 70 points from initiation now... Traders having multiple lots can book profits with every 25-30 points up move.... others can keep trailing stop loss below 8750...

Hope you all made money...

Next hurdles for Nifty near 8830-8860-8900-8945-8970

Cheers

Hrishi

Book partial profits ! ! ! !

Hi All,

All traders, book part profits near 8750 and trail SL below 8700.....

Cheers

Play safe . . .

Hi All,

Low risk traders, who don’t want to take overnight risk can book a small profit of around 20 points in Nifty near 8731-33, rest can carry an overnight trade with the original Stop loss...

Cheers

Bottom fishing . . .! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty yet gain took support near the Supertrend area of 8690 levels and is showing some signs of strength on hourly and 15 minutes charts.

Risky traders can think of going Long in Nifty @ 8715 levels, with a stop loss below 8685 and targets being 8750-8785-8810.. (all spot levels)

Cheers

The War is on. . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected on Monday, Nifty did not break 8700 levels and witnessed an initial bounce till 8740-8750 levels, however could not sustain the same and closed near the day’s low at 8715.

On daily charts Nifty has taken support near 8700 which is also the Supertrend area, however, on weekly charts Nifty has given a bearish candle Shooting Star on Friday, and Monday’s gap down opening also confirms the pattern.

On hourly charts Nifty has created a Bullish Hammer like pattern, which is a ray of hope for bulls, and that is the reason 8700-8690 levels will be very crucial to watch out for on closing basis,

Hence going forward, for any substantial up move Nifty should first surpass the recent high made near 8960-70 levels, else every rise can be a selling opportunity for short term. Medium term outlook will be positive until Nifty trades above 8500-8600 levels.

On the lower side supports will be near 8690-8620-8570-8500 and the resistances will be near 8750-8780-8860-8910-8970.

As there are contradicting signals on different timeframes, market are expected to be choppy, hence trading with proper stop losses is a must.

Cheers

Channel Changed ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the previous post on Friday, Nifty was trading near the upper end of a rising channel, and a healthy correction can not be denied.

Following the same prediction, Nifty is about to open gaped down by more than 100 points and the crucial support to watch out for will be 8700-8760 levels below which Nifty can even go further down till 8570-8620 levels.

Though the bias for markets will be buy on dips, a confirmation on chart is mandatory before going long after such a huge gap down opening.

Will update you if there comes a trading opportunity. 8700-8760 will be the levels to watch out for.

Cheers

Hrishi

Will bears change the channel ? ? ?

Hi All,

Sincere apologies for not updating the blog for few weeks, was caught up in something.

Personal Market View -

Nifty, after my last market update on 26th July, has traded sideways and in he range of 8700-8500 for almost a month and finally broke out on the higher side and created a 52 high of 8968-70 couple of days back.

Though the next hurdle for Nifty is going to be near the life time high of 9120 levels, it is currently trading near the upper end of the channel on the daily charts, which again means that, like what happened earlier (please refer the chart below) Nifty might have to come down by 3-5% or at least trade in sideways manner in order to gain further strength.

Resistance on the higher side will be near 8970-9000-9050-9130 whereas supports are going to be near 8870-8840-8820-8800-8750

The gap up opening near 8820-8850 will be very crucial support zone to watch out for.

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Inter-market analysis by John Murphy....

Hi All,

Just a small note on inter-market analysis from the book written by John Murphy -

The following markets/segments interrelate each other -

Bonds
Stocks
Currencies
Commodities

Intermarket Principle - No market move in asolation, they are interrelated...

Relationship overview - 

1. Bonds and Stocks relate positively to each other.....i.e. They move together. Stocks do better when bond market is moving up

2. Bonds and Commodities relate negatively.....i.e. They move in opposite direction

3. Commodities and US Dollar move Opposite.....

Stocks market and Bond market influence each other, Commodity markets are influenced by bonds and currencies are influenced by Commodites...

For more details please watch 

Regards

Hrishi