Sigh of Relief ? ? ? Close very important....

Hi All,

Exactly as expected Nifty opened with an upward gap of around 50 points and gave away all those gains in few minutes of opening. A further sell off in Nifty even achieved our second target for the fall near 6900.

However, as a ray of hope for bulls, hourly charts started to look a bit bullish after consecutive 3 bullish candles with a lot of buying pressure, also, if Nifty closes near the current levels of 7000+, on daily charts we will get a Hammer Pattern (A close near 7630 levels will give us a Dragonfly Doji Pattern, a even more stronger) which can be a bullish confirmation, but only and only above 7030-7040 levels (Markets can even come down again if the resistance works).

It may not be advisable to go short now and even it is better to cover any short positions as on daily charts though not yet confirmed, but there is a sigh of relief at least for now.

It would be too early to call it a short term bottom, but confirmation of the hammer on Monday, as said earlier can mean a lot for the bulls

In a nutshell, Nifty of surpasses 7030-7040 mark today and crosses today’s high on Monday, we can expect a small bounce to start off with.

Blood Bath . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, after breaking the key levels of 7100 Nifty drifted down drastically and was down by almost 250 points. However, as per my expectation it did not give any respect to 7100 levels.

Now going forward, Nifty will trade with a negative bias and any rise should be used as a shorting opportunity unless we see bullish formation on either intraday or daily charts.

Right now SGX Nifty is up by as much as 100 points and it is likely to open above 7050 levels. Now 7100-7120 will act as a level of resistance (which was a prior support) and a close above that can mean a lot for the bulls.

However, as said earlier, unless we see a bullish formation, the bias for the markets will continue to be negative and sell on rise strategy should be applied with strict stop losses as the IV is already trading higher, as expected near 26% mark and the same can even rise further on account of economic evens lined up at the end of the month.

Cheers...

Low Risk High Reward . . . .

Risky traders can take a long position at 7140 with Sl below 7100...... Low risk potential returns opportunity

The D Day . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

As expected, after breaking 7240 mark, Nifty tumbled sharply yesterday and created a low of 7177 odd levels. Though there was a small bounce of around a percentage point, Nifty could not sustain the same and finally sold off during the closing hours.

Since there is no sign of relief for the bulls as of now, either on hourly or daily charts, the bias for Nifty in for intraday and short term continues to be bearish.

7120-7100 is the ray of hope for bulls now.

Even 7100 PE saw a huge built up on the OI front (Derivatives Data), so one can expect a close above 7100 for this month expiry, however, in case of a convincing breach of 7100 levels, Nifty can slide further to 7000-6900 levels.

I personally feel Nifty should ideally hold on to 7100 levels and there can be a smart bounce at least once before breaking the level finally.

I will stick to my view that a weekly close (close of tomorrow i.e. 12th Feb 2016) below 7240 could mean further downside for Nifty till 7000-6800-6500..... Hence today and tomorrow are going to be very crucial for markets

Cheers

Hammered . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

Thanks to the IV, which was up by almost 6% in the early trades near 23% mark,  Markets even gave up the crucial level of 7240-7230...

Now going forward if, Nifty sustains below the psychological level of 7200 or a weekly close below 7240, as suggested earlier, we can expect it to come down till 7100-7120 levels and even below 7000 mark. The bias turns bearish for all the time frames until we get a bullish confirmation on charts.

As of now there is no hope for bulls unless there is some sign of relief on charts.

Cheers....

To be or not to be . . That is the Question....

Hi All,

As expected Nifty traded with a negative bias for yesterday. As Nifty did not go higher to cross any resistances it is expected to trade negative even today. The key level to watch out for will be 7240-7230....

SGX Nifty is already down by 65 points which suggest that Nifty may open near or even below 7240 mark, however before taking any short trades it is advisable that the markets break 7240-7200 mark convincingly.

However, if Nifty holds 7240 levels, we can see at least a small bounce till 7500-7530 levels.

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the IV moved up by as much as 7-8% yesterday and is currently trading at 21.75%, near a daily resistance of 22.10-22.15%, since it is trading near a resistance, it is the only ray of hope for bulls, as if IV cools down a bit markets usually tend to take it in a positive way, however the same can have a lagging effect.

Traders are once again advised to trade cautiously as the IV is likely to trade higher on account of key economic events lined up for the month.

In a nutshell, the for market bias for intraday, short term and even midterm will depend on 2 key factors i.e. 7240-7200 zone and the IV coming lower after taking resistance near daily supply areas of 22.10-22.15%. 

It is a "To be or not To Be" questions for bulls... fingers crossed.

Cheers

Bang On . . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As per our prediction, Nifty opened with huge gap down of more than 100 points and did not respect the support of 7350.

Now for any intraday bounce it should hold 7240-7260 levels....

Cheers

Bulls defeated . . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

Exactly as expected yesterday morning, Nifty scaled higher till 7510 mark, however could not give an hourly close above the same, hence, hammered badly and closed lower by more than 100points at 7387.25

Though, it is currently trading near a support of 7350 levels, the way it fell sharply yesterday, doesn’t look like Nifty will hold the same and expected to break that level, even the SGX Nifty (down by 60 points) and global markets (Nikkei down by 5%) are suggesting that.

Intraday bias for the day looks like negative unless there is any bullish confirmation on hourly / 15 minutes charts.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 7320-7300-7260-7235

Resistances – 7410-7460-7510

Traders are advised to be cautious, as the India Vix index (Volatility index) was up by > 11% yesterday and the same has bounced back from the support zone of 15.50 – 16.50% as posted earlier. Also on account of the key economic events lined up the volatility is expected to rise further.

Cheers

At a crucial juncture . . . ! ! ! !

Hi Everyone,

As expected Nifty scaled higher and it should likely go up, however as per the earlier posts, it is taking resistance near 7500-7510 mark and at least an hourly close above 7510 level is extremely crucial for Nifty going forward.

Intraday bias remains positive till the time Nifty is trading above 7440-7435 levels.

Levels to watch out for intraday

Supports – 7440-7395-7350

Resistances – 7510-7535-7580-7610        

Cheers

Not loosing ground . . . .

Hi all,

As per morning update, Nifty scaled higher and crossed the resistance of the hourly and 15 minutes chart patterns, which now means that it is likely to go further up. A close above 7510-15 levels will mean a lot for Nifty and then once can expect that it will even cross the highs of 7610-7640 as well because they are weak resistances now.

Cheers

War Field . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty could not cross the resistance mark near 7460-65 levels (yesterday’s high was of 7457.05) and sold off by more than 0.50% intraday.

For today, Nifty is likely to open on a flattish note as per SGX Nifty which is down by 4 odd points.

Intraday view – Nifty has created a Morning Star Pattern yet again on 15 minutes charts and also has a Hammer like pattern on hourly charts, the bias for Nifty will turn positive for the day only above the highs of these patterns near 7430-7465 respectively.

On the lower side as said yesterday 7360-7340 will now act as key supports below which we can expect Nifty to go further down near 7320-7300-7250-7230

For midterm bias, 7240-7230 holds the key and breaching this level would mean that the short term bias will again change to bearish, the id term bias which was bearish with a reversal level above 7640-7730 will aggravate below 7230 and the gates for 7100-6900 are then wide open for markets.

Traders are advised to trade cautiously with proper stop losses for both long and short trades as the volatility is expected to go up on account of key announcements like Rail Budget (26^th Feb), Union Budget (29^th Feb) and Economic Survey (25^th Feb).

Cheers

Hrishi

Star Wars..... Ears Win . . .! ! ! !

Hi All,

The battle of Bulls and Bears with Morning & Evening stars, the bears won yesterday and as per our expectation, after breaking the earlier resistance and now support of 7500, Nifty tanked by almost 150 points to create a low of 7350 odd levels.

Near the bottom of 7350, Nifty completed 71% retracement of the entire rise from 7240 to 7600 levels and after a strong gap up opening today, there is a small respite for bulls and 7350 will now act as a support going forward...

Levels to watch out for intraday are

Supports – 7400-7350-7320-7250-7230-7200

Resistances – 7435-7460-7510-7580-7610-7640

In a nutshell, the intraday bias for the Nifty will be bearish till the time 7460-65 levels are not breached.(as the key support of 7400 is broken and on account of Evening Star Pattern on daily charts)

Traders are advised to trade cautiously as the India Vix index has bounced back sharply yet again from the lows of 17.30% and now trades near 18.1%

Cheers

Star Wars . . . .

Hi All,

Exactly as expected, Nifty took a solid resistance near the first target of the short term bias of 7610 and my view on bulls need to be cautious turned out to be right. Today, Nifty even broke 7500 levels, and closed below the same significantly. Today’s fall was more on account of a sharp bounce in the India Vix index from daily support zone as mentioned earlier. India Vix bounced back from 16.48% (daily support near 15.50-16.50%) to 18.30% almost.

In this bargain, Nifty has given an Evening Star Pattern on daily charts, which is a sign of concern, however the pattern didn’t exactly appear at the end of an uptrend, so the harm may be limited. Evening Star will get conformed only if Nifty breaks 7400-7380 mark and stay there for a while. In my earlier post dated 25th Jan 2016, there was a Morning Star (Bullish) pattern on hourly charts and now we have its bearish counterpart on daily....

In a nutshell, the short term bias will continue to be bullish till the time Nifty trades above 7380-7400 levels, the medium term bias was negative and will continue to be dovish till the time Nifty does not surpass the up side hurdles near 7610-7640-7740.

Traders have to keenly keep a track of the globe tonight for tomorrows opening, SGX Nifty will give a hint.....

Cheers ! ! !

Be Cautious . . .

Hi Everyone....

As expected, Nifty is facing resistance near 7600-7640 levels and bulls are expected to be cautious.

Also, India Vix is up today by 4.5% which is a sign of concern for bulls...

Cheers

Hrishi

Bulls's day out . . ! ! !

Hi Everyone...

As expected Nifty took support near 7400 mark as mentioned earlier and bounced back. After breaching the 7500 resistance Nifty rallied further by almost 1% and closed at 7563.

As it has crossed the 7500 resistance the next pit stop now is near 7610-7640.... and above that 7720-7740 remains very crucial as the Nifty 7450 Straddle Break Even Point (on the first day of the new expiry series yesterday) is also at the same level.

Currently the short term bias is continue to be positive (was changed from bearish to bullish on 22^nd Jan after the Last engulfing pattern) with targets near 7610-7640-7730, and I think the midterm bias will also turn bullish above 7730-40 levels.

Traders are advised to still be cautious as India Vix (Volatility Index is still on the higher side @ 17.24% and trading near a daily support.

Cheers

Hrishi

Gap down and covered.... ! ! !

Hi All,

As per yesterday's post, Nifty opened down by around 30-35 points and then recovered sharply.

Nifty currently trades around 7500, up by almost a percentage point. and a key resistance near 7500.

all the levels are same as per yesterday's post (Just scroll down the Blog).... the bias is positive above the resistances...

Cheers....

Gap down tomorrow. . .

Got this informative forward which makes sense

So even if markets break 7400 we have to discount it on these factors...

Need not panic as lot of people saying the same thing which usually doesn't work. Or it may open down and then cover up during the day

Observation

Nifty 7450 Straddle Break even point I.e. BEP is 7180 and 7720. As per earlier posts 7730 is a key resistance technically. So with confluence of indicators suggesting 7720..7740 levels.. it becomes very crucial
Tomorrow ICICI and Maruti will go down by 5-10%

The forward...

ICICI weight in nifty 5.8%..
Maruti weight in nifty 1.9%..
Total 7.7%..
Now 7.7% of 7400 is 570 points..
A fall of 7.5% of 570 points is 43 points..

This is fall likely due to these 2 counters tomorrow
Bharti Also has 2% weightage ..
A fall of 4% there is also likely..
Reliance, pharma and  software may cushion the fall

So we are likely to open gap down below 7400

Cheers

All eyes on Expiry ! ! !

Hi All,

After facing resistance near 7500, Nifty fell by almost 1% and found support near the first zone mentioned, i.e. 7420 and bounced back sharply by around 60 points, however was not able to cross 7500 mark.

Today, markets can witness a bit of extra volatility, on account of F&O expiry, hence traders are advised to trade with strict stop losses.

Though the bias for Nifty is positive due to candlestick patterns on daily and weekly charts, for any meaning full upside Nifty has to surpass 7500 mark.

Levels to watch out for –

Resistance – 7490-7510-7550-7610-7640

Supports – 7415-7390-7320-7270-7240...

Cheers!

Hrishi

Wait & Watch . . .! ! !

Hi All,

As expected Nifty faced a resistance near 7470-7500 zone and came down marginally to around 7420 levels.

Even today in spite of strong SGX Nifty (up by 40 points odd) Nifty opened gapped up but gave away all its gains and currently trading flat, up by just 1 point.

Due to couple of candlestick patterns on the daily and weekly charts, the bias is positive for the markets, but advisably Nifty should cross and sustain 7500 mark.

Levels to watch out for –

Resistance – 7490-7510-7550-7610-7640

Supports – 7415-7390-7320-7270-7240...

Traders are advised to trade cautiously on account of F&O expiry tomorrow. India Vix also is trading near a support zone, and if held can bounce back sharply, which is a negative sign for Nifty...

Cheers

Hammer - A Sigh of Relief for Bulls ! ! !

Hi All,

Thanks to the Last Engulf Pattern on daily charts and Morning star pattern on hourly charts, Nifty has already bounced back by almost 3-3.5%.

It’s now trading near its resistance zone of 7470-7500, above which Nifty can go up till 7550-7610...

Finally, there is good news for the bulls that on Weekly charts Nifty has created a Hammer Pattern, and prices have already went higher than last week’s highest price which is a good sign.

However, playing safe, it is advisable to wait for a cross of 7610 mark before calling it a confirm short term bottom. Above 7610 mark Nifty can then scale new highs of 7700+ and after closing above 7730 (a gap on daily charts) one can even call for a medium term bottom for Nifty as well.

In a nutshell, Nifty currently trading near  crucial zone 7470-7500, and after surpassing that bulls should pray for a successful breach of 7610 level.

Supports on the lower side are 7440-7390-7320-7370-7340...

Cheers