Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Bears attack, Bulls ready? ? ?

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty saw a huge decline after breaking 7960-7950 levels and now trading below 7800.

Now, the recent low of 7667-7650 will act the last ray of hopes for midterm bulls, sustaining below which will open the gates for 7500-7300-7000....

Even if there is a bounce, prima facie it will be a short lived bounce (called as dead cat bounce) and 8100 will act as a crucial resistance, midterm bias will only change after surpassing 8100-8200 levels.

However, for short term bias 7650 levels will be very crucial to watch out for and will turn positive if and only if Nifty surpasses and sustains above 7800 mark today or tomorrow.

Nifty on hourly charts have a Bullish Candlestick pattern called Hammer, so if Nifty sustains above 7800 mark, one can expect a short term bounce till 7975-7950-8000-8050-8100, however breaking today's low of 7746-7740 we can expect Nifty to reach recent lows near 7680-7650.....



Cheers...
Hrishi

Friday, August 28, 2015

Fell from the Top......

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty took resistance near the levels of 8090-8100, traders should avoid going long.

Ideally Nifty should not come below 7960-7950 if this up move has to resume, breaking that would violate the gap up opening today.

Nifty support zones 7960-7950-7920-7880-7850...


Cheers...

Sign of Concern ! ! !

Hi All,

After crossing 7930 level and sustaining above it, markets rallied further by another 100 points. Now there is a big resistance zone from 8060-8230, and markets are likely to face some tension here, so it’s better to be a bit cautious and conservative.

If you have taken positions near the lows of 7770-7800 for this rally then it’s time to book some profits as markets are nearing multiple selling zones of 8060-8090-8165-8200-8230.

However, going short without any confirmation will also be not advisable.


Cheers....

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Bottom Fishing Successful ! ! !

Hi All,

As predicted in the morning post, Nifty witnessed a bounce of almost 100 point today and now thanks to the hourly bullish pattern, we also have same pattern on daily charts (Bullish Hammer), which is usually a reversal pattern, however this time can be lesser impactful due to 2 big gap down openings.

However, for the pattern to be successful, Nifty should sustain above 7930-50 levels tomorrow, then one can expect some more bounce till 7990-8060-8100 levels.


Cheers

Bottom Fishing ! ! !

Hi All,


After a massive sell off for few days Nifty has created a Bullish Pattern on hourly charts and is sustaining above it.

If Nifty sustains above 7800 and closes above it, there is a chance of having a small bounce back; however, the resistances are near 7930-7990-8060....

Since the markets are very volatile, traders are advised to trade with strict SL on both short and long positions...

Please note that this bounce may not be a short term trend reversal and just a relief rally, let the time decide....

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, August 24, 2015

Black Monday ! ! !

Hi All,

As stated in the earlier post, after breaching 8300-8180 Nifty continued its downward journey and reached the targets of 7900-7800....

Now on daily charts it may find a small support near 7700-7750 levels and witness a small bounce after a massive sell off of past 2 days, however, that may not be a start of a fresh up move and Nifty is likely to come down further to the levels of 7500-7400 at least.

Any bounce from now should be taken as a selling opportunity till the time Nifty does not cross 8550-8650 levels.

As per FM’s and RBI Governor’s statement nothing is drastically wrong with Indian economy except a below normal monsoon, which I personally feel is been discounted in the current sell off.

For investors - this is a golden opportunity to procure quality stocks at these levels with an appetite to invest a bit more if Nifty falls below 7500.

Traders are expected to trade cautiously as the IV (Implied Volatility) has shot up by 70-80% in a single day, suggesting markets are going to be extra volatile in coming days, advisable to trade with strict stop losses on either side...


Cheers....

Friday, August 21, 2015

Rising Window Calling....

Hi all,

Please find below a write up on what to talk to customers if they ask for the market crash.

Reasons for market crash
·         Markets crashed more on Global worries, ·         China PMI data comes lowest than 2009, Fed Rate hike looms ·         Around 4-5 Asian markets hitting 52 week lows ·         Greek PM resigns, Korea making war noises ·         Rupee hitting lower lows  

Markets going forward....What to do?

Traders – As stated earlier, markets trading below 8300 is not a good sign, however Nifty may find a support near 8180-8200-8220 range as lot of Technical Indicators like Retracements, Support & Resistances, Chart Patterns, etc are suggesting the same. However, it’s not a good time to take long positions for short term as there are no other confirmation n charts.

8185-8195 is a gap on daily charts so, If 8180 is broken on closing basis them it is almost certain that we are heading towards 8000-7900 again as that will be the target for the Triangle breakdown on Daily charts....


Investors - Best time for Long term investors in stocks and MF

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Markets in bad mood.....

Hi All,

Markets witnessed a heavy sell off today on account of Trade Fire between South and Korea.

Now key levels for short term can be 8300-8350, below these levels further downside can be expected till 8180-8200.

Short term bias remains up till the time 8300 is held and midterm bias is held till the time 7900-7940 levels are intact

Nifty forming a Symmetrical Triangle on daily charts. A close above 8621-8630 or a close below 8300 will decide the further course of action....

Cheers

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

The cockroach theory by Sundar Pichai . ! ! !

A beautiful speech by Sundar Pichai - an IIT-MIT Alumnus and Global Head Google Chrome: The cockroach theory for self development At a restaurant, a cockroach suddenly flew from somewhere and sat on a lady. She started screaming out of fear. With a panic stricken face and trembling voice,she started jumping, with both her hands desperately trying to get rid of the cockroach. Her reaction was contagious, as everyone in her group also got panick The lady finally managed to push the cockroach away but ...it landed on another lady in the group. Now, it was the turn of the other lady in the group to continue the drama. The waiter rushed forward to their rescue. In the relay of throwing, the cockroach next fell upon the waiter. The waiter stood firm, composed himself and observed the behavior of the cockroach on his shirt. When he was confident enough, he grabbed it with his fingers and threw it out of the restaurant. Sipping my coffee and watching the amusement, the antenna of my mind picked up a few thoughts and started wondering, was the cockroach responsible for their histrionic behavior. If so, then why was the waiter not disturbed? He handled it near to perfection, without any chaos. It is not the cockroach, but the inability of the ladies to handle the disturbance caused by the cockroach that disturbed the ladies. I realized that, it is not the shouting of my father or my boss or my wife that disturbs me, but it's my inability to handle the disturbances caused by their shouting that disturbs me. It's not the traffic jams on the road that disturbs me, but my inability to handle the disturbance caused by the traffic jam that disturbs me. More than the problem, it's my reaction to the problem that creates chaos in my life. Lessons learnt from the story: I understood, I should not react in life. I should always respond. The women reacted, whereas the waiter responded. Reactions are always instinctive whereas responses are always well thought of, just and right to save a situation from going out of hands, to avoid cracks in relationship, to avoid taking decisions in anger, anxiety, stress or hurry. A beautiful way to understand............LIFE.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Why Parliament did not function......

Hi all,
A Video worth watching for 9 minutes....

Please don't ignore just because its BJP Video, as some real worst things were discussed in this.

Those who have not seen speeches by Ms. Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley please see the important excerpts of it in this video. Please watch what Arun Jaitly said about Lalit Modi is an eye opener

And if what Kalyan singh said in his book had to be believed, which was read word by word, then really we will think, why did we elected earlier Govt for so long time even after the massacre of Bhopal Gas Tragedy incident, Mr. Anderson was bailed out of India by those politicians then in 1984..

Please watch and be aware...



Thursday, August 13, 2015

In the Independence day week Bulls are dependent a lot on 8321 ! ! !

Hi All,

Owing to domestic and global negative factors Nifty plummeted badly in this Independence day week.

Though a positive weekly close has a remote probability Bulls will still depend a lot on 8320-8300 levels. A close below the same and Nifty is set for another down turn will 8200-8100-7950 levels.

However, personally I feel a lot of negative things are now factored in by now (Like, Yuan devaluation, GST not passing in, Policy Paralysis due to non functioning of both the houses of Parliament, etc.) and still Nifty managed to stay above yesterdays low of 8338 which is a sign of relief.

So If we hold 8320-8300 levels on closing basis a short term bounce can not be ruled out.

Bulls .... last ray of hope.... 8320...

Bears can party if the same is breached on a closing basis.

Cheers

Hrishi

Saturday, August 8, 2015

FNO lot sizes revised...

SEBI revises the market lot and minimum lot value criteria.

Minimum lot value revised to 5 lac. Minimum lot size for stocks reduced to 50 and in multiple of 25 there after.

For high value stocks minimum lot size fixed at 10 and multiple of 5.

Index minimum lot size fixed  at 10 and multiple of 5 there after

At current nifty value of appx 8500. New Nifty index lot will be 60.

Bank nifty will be 30...applicable from
Oct expiry   ..   

http://www.sebi.gov.in/cms/sebi_data/attachdocs/1436782665000.pdf

Friday, August 7, 2015

How to Select a Fundamentally sound company......

Hi All,

Got a nice What's App forward on selecting a small Cap Company.... worth reading

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)
2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages
3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings
4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.
5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run.

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.
2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.
3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  
4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.
5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.
2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.
3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.
4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Cheers Hrishi

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

And the God opens a Dmat Account ! ! !.. Why are you waiting.

Tirupati Trust opens demat account on Balaji's name to enable devotees to donate shares and securities 
HYDERABAD: Balaji, the world's richest god at Tirupati, has now opened a demat account to enable devotees to donate shares and securities, after finding it a tedious task to get physical share certificates dropped in Hundi transferred on his name.

Considered the first globally for a shrine management, Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams (TTD) has opened demat account (1601010000384828) with the Stock Holding Corporation of India.

PS Reddy, MD and CEO of Central Depositories Service (CDSL), told ET that the innovative move by TTD was primarily aimed at addressing the hassles pertaining to transferring the physical share certificates. "TTD has been receiving physical share certificates as donations by devotees in its open Hundi, which indicates that devotees are interested in donating shares.

TTD viewed that enabling devotees to use the demat account for donations helps both." Reddy said though TTD is the first shrine management in the country till date to open a demat account, CDSL would explore similar interest from other temple managements in other parts of the country that were receiving shares as donations.

While acknowledging that the temple has been receiving thousands of share certificates valuing lakhs of rupees, a TTD top official, however, refused to divulge details on the quantum and value of shares received so far. 

Read more at:

Monday, August 3, 2015

A must read for a trader....

One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer studying the market, David's 7 year old daughter came up, tugged at his shirt sleeve, and said, "Daddy, why aren't we rich?"
He looked his child in the eye, and thought to himself, what a great question - why aren't we rich?
As she stood there expectantly waiting for an answer, he struggled to come to grips with the realization that, although he had focused his undivided attention on nothing but creating wealth for more than 15 years, he was still broke.
He had bought and sold hundreds of Stocks and several properties over those years, but had never made any real money to speak of.
He looked at his daughter, and asked, “What makes you think we aren't rich, sweetheart?”
She looked at him sternly and said, “Because you said that if we were rich, you and mom wouldn't have to go to work any more, and you both still work all the time.
You said we could live near the beach and play in the sand every day. I want to know what you are doing about that. When can we go and live at the beach?”
There’s nothing like a child to cut straight to the heart of the problem - and what was he doing about it?
“We're not rich because daddy made some mistakes,” he finally answered.
“What kind of mistakes, daddy?” she asked.
“Well, I bought some shares that were going down and then didn't sell them soon enough. Then I bought some houses but sold them again just before they went up in price.”
“Why did you do that?” she asked.
He had to think long and hard about that. He had no reason to buy shares that were going down in the first place. He had no reason to hold on to them when they kept going down. He had no reason to sell the properties either, come to think of it.
Her logic was flawless – why wasn’t he doing better financially than he was?
He knew in that moment that he had to change his strategy.
He owed it to himself and his family to finally get his act together and make some changes - that was the day the pain of not living up to his potential made him sit down and write out his stock market trading plan...his trading strategy and rules – he had to have a life raft.
He started by writing out his vision - what he wanted his life to look like when he became a successful trader and investor, then worked backwards from there - through the details of how he was going to achieve his dream.
He saw in his mind the 4 bedroom penthouse on the beach, the red Ferrari 360 Modena, the 80 inch plasma screen computer monitor in an office overlooking the surf beach 17 floors below, the family holidays, the million dollar donations to worthwhile causes and children's charities.
He visualized all the tremendous benefits of becoming a successful trader, investor and philanthropist.
He realized that his main problem all this time had been that he was afraid of losing, and that fear was just too expensive to let it control his life any longer! He had been playing not to lose, instead of playing to win.
He decided he would never again sell a property unless there was a compelling reason to do so.
He decided that he would no longer accept anything less than perfect execution of his stock trading plan.
He decided that he would take every trade entry signal his system gave him and follow his trading plan as if his life depended on it.
As if, after each trade was closed out, he had to stand in front of a panel of super traders, and explain his actions to them - why he entered where he did, where he placed his stop losses, why he exited when he did.
And if they weren't convinced he followed the rules of successful trading, he would be taken out and shot!
This certainly focused his attention on only trading strong trends - trends where the price bars were trading above their respective moving averages for long trades, or below for the moving averages for short trades, and the Stock price was moving strongly in one direction.
He pretended that if he couldn't justify his trading decisions to his trading Mentors, he was dead...
That was the day he resolved to study his selected group of Stocks, the ones that had a track record of trending strongly, every day.
He would then take every trade his system produced, put his stop loss orders in the market as he entered each trade it a place where the trend had to change to take him out of the market, and he would hold every position until the trend changed.
He would act 'as if' he was a great trader, even though his record up to that point had been less than inspiring...
That innocent question from a child turned out to be the start of David's successful trading career.
He started to trade profitably and consistently for the first time in his life. He thought he was doing well, and indeed he was making money.
He knew from his wealthy mentors that rich people are different; they make rational decisions based on facts, not emotions.
They understand the value of money - they respect it as a tool for building a better world. They buy well for logical reasons and hold until there is a valid reason to sell.
Then one day, he closed out a trade, and excitedly told his daughter, “Daddy made a big profit in the market today darling, come and look and see what I did.”
His daughter came over to the computer and looked at the screen as he excitedly showed her where he had bought a Stock and then sold for a $13000 profit. She looked at him and said, “But daddy, it's still going up, why did you sell now?”
His smile faded as the power of that question sunk in...why had he sold it?
What was he doing getting out of such a strong trend just to take a profit? What would his trading Mentors say?
She was right...the market was still open, so he bought back in again. He had never been able to bring himself to do that before - he was becoming a great trader!
The rally continued and he kept buying more as it rallied. The trend finally changed, but his profit on that trade, when he eventually got a valid sell signal, was $34500!
His daughter's simple, logical question 5 weeks earlier had been worth over $20000!
That was the last time he ever got out of a trade based on his emotions. His fear of the market was gone - thanks to some simple questions from a 7 year old...
So now, it's your turn.
Whenever you are preparing to place a trade, find a small child, even if you have to borrow one, and ask them what the trend is. Then don't trade the other way!
If your trading isn't as great as you know it could be, decide to create a trading plan now that will become your life raft.
Remember, fear is just too expensive folks.
If you are afraid of losing money, reduce your position size until your fear goes away.
Once you have made a series of small profits, you will be trading with the markets money and you can increase you position size according to your growing confidence and account balance.
If you have a series of losses, reduce your position size again until you get back on the right track. Stick to your trading plan once you have something that works consistently.
Then, just go out and do!!

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Bottomed out?

Hi all,

As mentioned in the earlier post, Nifty took support near 8315-8300 mark and did not those levels any time. Today markets gapped up and trading now near 8440 mark.

Now the next hurdles are near 8450-8493-8515-8530

Can we call this a short term bottom?, well for that Nifty has to surpass the above resistances and sustain convincingly above 8500....

Cheers...

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Bear's Day out...

Hi All,

After a Blood bath on Dalal Street for last couple of days, Nifty now trading near a daily support of 8315-8300.

8300 remains the last hope for bulls. If markets sustains below the same (Sensex corresponding level - 27500) a free fall to 8200-8100 can not be ruled out...

Bulls should pray for a close above 8353 by today for at least a small bounce.

A great opportunity for traders and investors as well to select quality stocks for Long term and trade based on the stock specific trend for short to mid term.

Cheers

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Very Good Video for understanding The Power of Compounding & SIP ! ! !

Hi All,

Please check the video for understanding the Power of compounding and Systematic Investment Plan... SIP.

Explained in a very simple yet very effective manner...



Cheers

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

What goes up....comes down... For going up again....

Hi All,

Markets seems to be taking a breather from the upside journey and currently trading near 8530 mark which is a crucial level for bulls.

Markets should close above 8530-8540 mark for continuing its upward journey till 8600-8650.... 8650 being the crucial hurdle for the bulls in short term.

If closes below 8530 Nifty might go down till 8500-8450-8420-8400...

8400 - 8300 looks like the end of pain for medium term, 8300 on closing basis can be called as a reversal for bullish trend in mid term.

For short term traders any short positions should be with SL above 8650 (spot), bor investors looking at a mid term entry can enter half of the amount now and wait for another half if it comes down till 8400-8420....

Markets are trading near a weekly resistance and hence we may see some down side, but as mentioned earlier, till 8300 is held, there should not be any concern for mid term.

Cheers

Hrishi

Dont understand Equity markets.... Please read!!!!

Hi all....

Lot of friends asked about basics of Stock  investing.... thought this What's App forward will be very good for beginners.....

Must read for non (equity) investors

“As it happens, retail investors are helping markets more by staying out than by investing in equities. So from a purely selfish point of view, we (current equity market participants) do not mind if you stay away from equities. Keep your money in low interest bearing savings accounts and this will help banks raise cheap funds.
Then, while you earn taxable 9% per year in fixed deposits and 4% in savings accounts, we will continue to buy HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank and the like, which are up 3.5 times, 11 times and 5.9 times respectively since December 2008. Also, remember to pay all your EMI instalments on time so that retail loans made by private banks do not get into trouble and we can continue do well owing their stocks.


Indian retail investors are more or less completely out of equities and would rather buy gold instead. So keep buying gold so that we can do better than you by owning stocks in Titan Industries and other jewellery companies. You should not care that at all that while the gold you bought is up 2.8 times in four years, the stock of Titan Industries, which sell gold to you is up 6.9 times during the same period. If Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had bought physical gold instead of shares in Titan when he did, he would not be a billionaire today.


In fact, go ahead and buy real estate, taking mortgages from HDFC and LIC Housing Finance. How else we would have made 2.8 times and 5.7 times in these stocks in five years?

And when you do buy these apartment and houses, do insist on using the best construction material- cement, sanitary ware and so on. It is only because you do not buy equities and spend on real things that we could make 192% on ACC and 4.5 times on Hindustan Sanitary ware since 2008. A house is not done until it’s painted, so remember to keep a budget for decorative paints from Asian Paints (stock is up 4.8 times in four years)

Why should you invest in equities when you can buy insurance products? This world is interesting precisely because we think differently from each other- while you are happy buying insurance, we are happy owning shares in companies that sell you insurance. Thanks to you, shares in Bajaj Finserve are up 6 times in value and shares in Max India are up 2 times in the past four years.
Follow your heart and we will follow you.
If you like going to malls and spending time there, please do some shopping as well- some of us own shares in Phoenix Mills which is up 2.7 times since 2008. In fact, it may be times for you to upgrade your car.

Why buy equities when you can spend the same money on a new car or motorcycle? Let us do the more boring job of continuing to own stocks in Maruti and Bajaj Auto which are up 2.9 and 10.8 times respectively since 2008. Why not add your name to the waiting list for an Enfield this year while we own shares in its manufacturers, Eicher Motors which is up 12 times since 2008?
Life isn’t just about making and investing money; it’s important to enjoy life’s little pleasures.

So go and watch a movie at the multiplex and munch some popcorn while you’re there. Meanwhile, we’ll buy shares in PVR (up 3 times in 4 years).


You’d rather spend time in front of the telly? We’ll still love you- shares in Zee Telefilms and Sun are up 3 and 3.5 times because of loyal viewers such as you.

Call for Pizza delivery at home. Jubliant Foodworks, which owns Domino’s, is up 5.4 times since its IPO in 2010.

When you’re in mood to be sinfully self-indulgent, don’t make any resolutions to give up smoking or drinking. You may not want to invest in equities but spare a thought for investors in these stocks. Your actions so far have helped these investors make 3.8 times in ITC, 10.3 times in United Breweries and 2.2 times in United Spirits in 4 years but they still look for your continued patronage of these businesses.

We wish you a very happy and healthy 2015. If, God forbid, you have to visit a hospital, remember that as stake holders in Apollo Hospitals (stock up 3.8 times) we will be thanking you from the bottom of our collective  hearts.

And if you do fall sick in 2015, take comfort in the fact that you are helping investors in stock of companies such as Dr.Reddy’s (stock up 4 times) and Cipla (stock up 2.3 times).

We invite you over to our side in 2015 but still love you for choosing instead to be loyal customers of the businesses we own. Now it’s up to you to decide who you would rather be – part owners of Indian companies or just their loyal customers.”

Take it just forward so that some of our compatriots, who still take comforts in traditional bank deposits can start doing some asset allocation and raise the standard of living of self and their families.