Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Interesting Read - Rich and Poor Divide..... Must read for us....

Hi All,

An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had recently failed an entire class.

That class had insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, "OK, we will have an experiment in this class on this plan. All grades will be averaged and everyone will receive the same grade so no one will fail and no one will receive an A...."(substituting grades for dollars - something closer to home and more readily understood by all).

After the first test, the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy.When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.As the tests proceeded, the scores never increased as bickering, blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

To their great surprise, ALL FAILED and the professor told them that communism would also ultimately failbecause when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great, but when government takes all the reward away,no one will try or want to succeed.

These are possibly the 5 best sentences you'll ever read and all applicable to this experiment:
1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

An article by visiting editor for ET..... Both NaMo and RaGa can learn somethings

Hi All,

An interesting read...

What is been mentioned I think Modi doing the same.... All those people crying for Land Bill please read and try to understand..

Many lessons flow from David Cameron's victory in the British elections for Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. First and foremost: it's the economy, stupid! Economic performance in your last two years matters hugely, even though it's not the only factor.

The last Labour government ended with an economic downslide and so lost the 2010 election. David Cameron assumed office and bravely opted for sustained initial austerity and pain. He promised this ultimately provide rising growth and employment. He delivered on that strategy, and was voted back.
Time for Gain, Not Pain

By contrast, the UPA 2 registered 8% growth in its first two years and barely 4.7% in its last two years (old GDP series). However, had the timing been reversed, the UPA might have been re-elected. Instead, it crashed to ahumiliating defeat.

The lesson for Modi: don't hold back, take tough decisions in your first two years — in infrastructure, electricity reform, bank reform, red tape, corruption. Don't worry about temporary dips in your .. 


Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Hurdle stopped the upward journey.....

Hi All,

As discussed in yesterdays update, Nifty faced a huge supply near 8320-8360 area, and is down by around 130 points from yesterday's high of 8332.7...

Those who went short yesterday can book profits now and wait to re-enter the markets.

Now ray of hopes for bulls are 8200-8170-8150-8120 & last but not the least... 8000-7950...

To my expectation Nifty, if has to continue the uptrend should take support near 8200-8160..... and bounce back from hereon.....

DATA TO WATCH (Post market today, so may impact tomorrow)

CPI (YoY) (Apr) Forecast 4.90% Previous 5.17%
Cumulative Industrial Production (Mar) 2.80%
Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 2.8% Previous  5.0%

CMP 8210.... Any further upside is only possible if Nifty takes out 8360 comfortably... If not, even 8000 may be at risk....

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, May 11, 2015

1st big hurdle for markets....

Hi All,

As discussed earlier, #Nifty has taken support near psychological levels of 8000 and has bounced back very strongly above 200 DMA. Now 8360 remains a crucial hurdle going forward for bulls above which next major resistance will be near 8510....

short term traders can take a small risk of shorting Nifty with strict SL above 8360-70 levels with a low probability and low risk trade.

Bias still remains bullish with supports being near recent swing bottoms of 8000-7950....

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Jan Dhan se Jan Suraksha

Hi All,
Please see the details for
Life Insurance worth Rs. 2Lac at Rs. 330/month
Accident Insurance worth Rs. 2Lac at Rs. 12/Year
Minimum Investments, maximum benefits - Fixed Monthly Pension Of Rs. 1k - 5k as per contributions....

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Markets at a crucial juncture....

Hi All,

Markets have been trading with weird swings in past 4-5 days and are now trading near a crucial supports of 8140-8150..... Breaking this level on closing basis may trigger more downside till 8060-7950..... 8000 mark can also act as a psychological support.

Probable Reasons for downfall -

    • Yemen’s Shiite Houthi rebels attacked the Saudi Arabian city of Najran 
    • A breakout in Crude oill possibly suggesting more upside
    • Reason for today's sell off.. around 20-25 lac Nifty futures have been sold within 10 minutes
    • Other reason can be upcoming Chinese IPOs where the funds would have moved to
    • Policy announcements with regards to Land Aquisition Bill, Delayed GST and MAT issues for FIIs., etc.
What to expect - 

For Traders - A close below 8150-8140 can trigger further sell off till 8000 and then may be till 7960-7800 levels in short to mid term as well.

If the markets have to create a short term bottom without breaking these recent supports there has to be a sharp bounce back may be today or max by this week, else gates for more downside are wide open.

Traders are advised to be very very cautious and trade with strict stop loss and lesser leverage.

For Investors - 

Just one thing....When everyone is greedy  be cautious, and when everyone is cautious be greedy.....

Markets have corrected by more than 10% from the all time highs of 9100+ levels, which everyone was waiting for, investors should grab this opportunity to buy quality stocks at low prices...

Bottomline.... Traders wait an watch, trade with confirmations and with strict stop loss and investors..... Grab the opportunity....

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Market corner.....

Markets look like are waiting for a bullish trigger, and will continue to slid till then.....

The trigger can be -

Global relief (Unlikely to be predicted)
Rate Cut by RBI (May be)
Good pick up in earnings, majority earnings are done for this quarter, so looks like this factor will be played only after the Q1FY2015-16 gets over in June....

Till then market seems to be following a wide rage with crucial supports near 7800-8000 and hurdles on top near 8500-8650-9000

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Hi all... Imporatant!!!

Thank you very much for following me on my blog.

Did not really get time to put something here.

However request you to follow me on Twitter where I have been very active and also on Facebook for regular Market / Politics update....

Sorry for the inconvenience caused....

Hope to see you on FB or Twitter...

Twitter - Follow @hrishisp - https://twitter.com/hrishisp
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/anadihrishi

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, May 15, 2014

What to expect from markets on D-Day and in near term???

What to expect from markets on D-Day and in near term???

As we all already know, markets have rallied close to 20% from the lows of 4th February on the expectation of a strong, stable government of NDA under the leadership of Mr. Narendra Modi.

By looking at the market response even after the declaration of Exit Polls, it looks like bulls are very eager, but unfortunately without any strong reason.

Few things which should be looked at on a conservative side, No crackdown in the dollar to match the mammoth up-move in equities, not a significant uptick on the earnings by Indian corporate, Inflation & IIP data still not at expected levels, global pressures in terms of Russia – Ukraine tension, Continued QE tapering by the US, bearish signals from Chinese PMI and real estate, etc

What can happen? –

Scenario 1 (High probability)–
In the case of NDA having clear majority, markets may not go up substantially (may be by only 2%-4%) in the near future as the same is already discounted in the markets. In the same case BJP’s seats might also play a big role, anything above 200-220 would be cheered from markets. Even after this scenario after posting short term gains, markets may follow Buy on Rumour Sell on Fact terminology

Scenario 2 – (Moderate probability)
However if NDA just fails short of a clear majority with near about 240-250 seats, a sell off can be witnessed as BJP would have to take time then, in order to stitch the post poll alliance, which might be challenging to an extent. Also BJP on its own gets anything below 210-200 seats markets may take it negatively from the stability perspective. However, after the selloff, markets will offer a good Buying Opportunity for traders as well as investors.

Scenario 3 – (Low probability)
If on the higher side NDA manages to get more than 300-310 seats markets may give a short term jump, which can take markets to 5-10%.

Scenario 4 – (Lowest probability)
In a lowest probable scenario NDA getting less than 200, though I personally don’t believe in the same, the doors might be opened for a huge panic and sell off, a possibility of a down circuit can’t be ruled out.

Advice for the traders -

16th May 2014 is not the only day available for making profits, stay cautious and conservative, preferably without trades or otherwise with STRICT stop losses, please remember though the leads will start coming in from 1100 hrs, the final tally will come post markets, so not advisable to take overnight trades tomorrow.

Advice for Investors –

Be happy as your investments have grown close to 20% in one quarter, however, big portfolios should ideally be hedged with Puts of 6300 / 6200 or max till 6000 for safeguarding your portfolio if Scenario 2 / 4 becomes reality, this just going to be an insurance premium for your portfolio and not a money making avenue. And needless to say, if markets plummet because of Scenario 2 / 4, it should be used to accumulate some quality stocks for your portfolio…

For Option traders -

The IVs are at sky high levels near 40%, though it had cooled off a bit post the exit polls, have come back to the levels of last week. Due to such a high IV buying of options should be avoided, very risky traders can think of writing deep out of the money calls above 8000 levels / puts below 6000 levels for making those limited profits (mot more than Rs. 500-100 per lot) with an element of unlimited risk, hence not advisable. However, strategies which will support IV cooling off effect like Butterfly, etc can be looked at.

Cheers


Hrishikesh Prabhavalkar

Friday, May 9, 2014

Election Results 2014…. PLAY SAFE!!!



We have been getting lot of requests for recommending an Option strategy for benefiting from the Election results, however due to very high volatility in markets (IV close to 35% against average IV of 12-18%), the Options premiums are very costly and hence it is not advisable to enter in to any Buy side strategies like Straddle, Strangle, etc.

As we all are aware, the markets have already rallied by 6-9% in the run up to the elections on the solid optimism about the NDA forming the government under Mr. Narendra Modi.

However, in the event of NDA not getting the majority / BJP getting lesser than expected seats / Possibility of a Hung parliament, etc markets can take it negatively and experts say that this might lead to a huge fall in the markets.

So as a safety measure, in order to protect your portfolio of greater than Rs. 100000-150000 from this unexpected downfall, you can think of buying some deep out of the money put (distantly lower from the CMP by ~ 10%)

As per the market scenario NIFTY 29-May-2014 PE 6000 can be looked at for the same purpose as the insurance against a fall in portfolio.

Following aspects should be kept in mind before entering the Put Option….
This Put is suitable for you only if your portfolio is worth 1-1.5 lacs
This is not a money making strategy but is only for protecting the portfolio by reducing losses in the case of result outcome being other than the current expectations (No majority for NDA, etc). it’s like an Insurance for the portfolio which reduces the loss only on the occurrence of an unforeseen event .
The 6000 PE is currently trading near 40 and should only be bought till 45-50 levels, where by the maximum loss will be limited to Rs. 2500 + brokerage which is going to be aprrox 2.5% of his portfolio value of Rs.100000
The number of lots will completely depend upon the portfolio value
if markets go up or do not fall substantially (more than 5-10%) then the entire premium would be lost (Approx Rs. 2500+Cost)
The volatility due to the results may not start after 16th May but after the Exit polls are out post the last phase of the elections on 12th May 2014

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

1st target achieved.....

Hi All,

As mentioned inn my earlier post "Bottom in Place", the 1st target of 6100 for Nifty Long initiated near 6060 is achieved, book partial profits a sustained movement or perhaps a close above 6110 mark can take Nifty to higher levels of 6170-6190-6260...

Cheers

Hrishi

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Bottom in place...

Hi all,

After yesterdays fight back from bulls, almost after 5 days, it looks like Nifty likely have made a short term bottom.....

With multiple confirmation on hourly and daily charts, Nifty is likely to see a strong up-move after surpassing 6060 mark.

Initial target can be very near by at 6110, however above that it looks like 6190-6240-6300 may not be difficult for Nifty in short to medium term...

Traders can safely go long above the 6060 levels with a Stop Loss below 5980. Conservative traders can also go long on dips with Stop Loss below 5930-25 levels...

Cheers

Hrishi


Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Reliable Reliance....

Hi all,

Buy Reliance (positional for 2 months) with a stop below 760 with targets of  890-920...

Cheers

Hrishi


Monday, February 3, 2014

Ranbaxy!!!!!

As suggested Ranbaxy achieved target 1 of 330... Forgot to update....

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, January 27, 2014

Going against the wave....

Hi All,

Risky traders Buy Ranbaxy near 309-310 SL below 300 (for short term), investors can accumulate with SL below 250....



Cheers

Hrishi

Friday, January 24, 2014

Bottom Fishing.....!!!!

Hi all,


Buy Nifty Intraday above 6283

Supports below 6265-6240....

Targets - 6330-6360 (spot levels)

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Copper looks Upper

Hi all,

Double confirmation on Copper.... Buy based on Supertrend on hourly as well as daily charts....

CMP 458, Supports below 454, resistances 462-467-470...

Cheers

Team ATC

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.... Book Profits near 61.77-78

Hi all,

Book profits in USDINR near 61.77-78

Cheers

Hrishi

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Hi All,

USDINR looks bullish with support below 61.35, resistances 61.80-62....

CMP 61.57.....

Cheers

Hrishi