Bulls in party mood....

Hi All,

After creating a bottom near 7700 levels Nifty rallied sharply for 2 days and closed yesterday near 7950 mark (7934.90)

Going forward, nifty will have a stiff resistance near 7990-8000 levels which acted as a hurdle for bears as a psychological level.

Any long trades should strictly folllow a trailing stop loss, and short trades if any should be with tight stop loss above 8000 levels on Nifty spot.....

Cheers

Last Ray of Hopes . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As predicted, Nifty fooled the bulls by a false close above 7900 for a day and tanked badly on Friday, the important day as per the weekly close as mentioned in earlier posts.

Nifty broke 7800 levels too, however managed to close marginally above it.

Now 7780-70 becomes the Last Ray of Hopes for Bulls as below that daily chart will have a Lower Bottom formation....

Levels to watch out for today –

Supports – 7770-7745-7710-7670

Resistances –7925-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

The D-Day...

Hi All,

Though Nifty crossed the 7900 mark, it was not comfortable above the levels and saw a selling pressure near it.

It has closed marginally above it, however the closing of today will be very crucial for markets as it is also going be a weekly close.

On weekly charts there will be a Supertrend resistance 7908 and a close above that will negative the current pessimism and Nifty can move up to the next pit stop near 8000....

Also, in the recent run up the volumes are on the weaker side which suggest lack of momentum.

It would be advisable for traders to wait and watch before taking any overnight trade this weekend.

Supports – 7840-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7925-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Confusion hi confusion hai.....

Hi All,

A sharp bounce after a huge gap down opening showed lot of hopes for bulls in the first half of the session, however, yet another time, Nifty could not surpass the key level of 7900 and witnesses one more selling pressure near the levels.

As mentioned quite a  few times earlier, the bias for Nifty will be positive only after sustaining above 7900 levels that too with some bullish confirmation, till then bears will have an upper hand with supports near 7800-7770-7730.

One encouraging thing for bulls is that the level of 7900 has provided selling for bears for too many times now and hence has become weaker, which means chances of the same getting broken are higher. However on hourly charts, Nifty has created a Lower Top Lower Bottom formation which will not augur well for bulls as it’s a bearish sign.

It is advisable for traders to trade after an authentic confirmation on charts with strict stop losses.

Supports – 7830-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Bear hai ke Maanata Nahi... ! ! !

Hi All,

After a sharp run on Monday and a smart pull back yesterday, Nifty did not cross the levels of 7900.

As posted earlier, the bias would have changed to positive only and only above 7900 levels, which didn’t happen.

Now, SGX Nifty is down by more than 125 points, suggesting a weak opening for Dalal Street.

Which means Nifty is likely to open near the Rising Window zone near 7738-7753 which will act as a crucial support for it going forward, the bias for short / midterm will change negative below 7670 (the possibility of which looks skimpy) levels.

Read more on Rising window Pattern

 

The opening fall in markets can be used as buying opportunity provided we have some bullish confirmations on charts..... I will update you the same.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7830-7800-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

As expected, Bears Hammered ! ! !

Hi All,

After creating a Hammer and surpassing it (7840), Nifty rallied sharply by rigorously defeating bears.

On Daily charts, Nifty still has lower top lower bottom formation and the same will be nullified when Nifty surpasses 7890-7900 levels.

So, 7890-7900 becomes a crucial level now to watch out for, though the level has become weak, it will still act as a resistance.

Any short positions should be with a strict stop loss above 7900 levels on spot.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7850-7810-7750-7710-7670

Resistances –7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Super Hammer comes to rescue Bulls ! ! !

Hi All,

After sliding down to 7670 levels from the high of close to 8000, Nifty on daily charts has given a Supper Hammer Pattern (Green Hammer) which is a bullish indicator.

Read more about Hammer

However the same is confirmed only when markets surpass the high of Friday, i.e. 7738-40, also it will gain further momentum above 7780 levels which is an area of resistance.

Moreover, the Hammer is formed on a Daily Supertrend Line (Trend Following Indicator), which increases its significance.

In a nutshell, if Nifty manages to stay above the key levels of 7740-80, we can expect a sustainable pull back in Nifty with targets near 7890-7930-7990

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7710-7660-7580-7500

Resistances – 7750-7780-7860-7890-7950-8000

Cheers - - -

Do you know ? ? ?

# Market Facts #


Two consecutive down years is rare. Rarer still is three consecutive down years. As per Mr Faber, it's happened just six times in 378 years, or less than 2% of the time. Four consecutive down years occurs only 1% of the time. And five down years in a row almost never happens. 

A Ji, O Ji its a Doji ! ! !

Hi All,

Though Nifty managed to close above 7700 mark, for a while it had violated that level, we were fortunate enough to book a small loss in the Long trade initiated at 7725-30....

Going forward, the bias for markets looks negative, especially after looking at weekly charts. A Doji pattern has got formed near a Super Trend resistance area which is surely a bearish sign and a close below the low of Doji, i.e. 7842 (7788 to be on a safer conservative side) will mean lower targets for Nifty near 7600-7500 will get opened. (Please refer the chart)

Today and tomorrow’s trading will be very crucial for markets for weekly closing and any hope for bulls will only occur if we have strong positive days, however the probability for the same looks meager.

Levels to watch out for today -

Supports - 7690-7660-7585

Resistances- 7730-7750-7780-7800-7860-7890-7910

Cheers.....

Hrishi

Let's respect 7.7k

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty fell down and is currently trading near 7720-25 levels.

Let us take a chance...

Risky traders Buy Nifty near 7725-30 with a Stop Loss below 7700 and targets near 7780-7800, all levels are Spot Levels....

Update - 3.10 PM

In an immense battle between Bulls and bears today, Nifty traded in a tight range of less than 50 points.

In spite being trading negative for almost all part of the day, markets did not break 7700 levels, which actually is an encouraging sign for bulls, however to be on the safer side, it is better to exit the position in a small loss rather than carrying it overnight.

Exit Nifty Long initiated @ 7725-30 @ CMP 7715-20

Let us take a fresh look at Nifty after the markets open tomorrow.

Cheers

Bang on Target . . . Bears Win with a huge margin....

Hi All,

As expected, in spite of opening positive by more than 50 points and rallying almost 90 points thereafter, Nifty faced a resistance near the mentioned level of 7890-7900, Nifty fell sharply as expected and broke the supports mentioned.

Now Nifty is trading near the gap up window Demand Zone near 7770-7710 and the fate for bears hereafter will be decided only after breaking the zone.

Traders are expected to trade cautiously with their short positions as markets are trading in a demand  zone now, we can initiate a trade on the Long side provided Nifty gives some confirmations at least on the intraday charts, I will update you all regarding the same if it occurs...

Levels to watch out for today -

Supports - 7730-7700-7670

Resistances- 7780-7800-7860-7890-7910

Cheers.....

Hrishi

Advantage Bears .. . ! ! !

Hi All,

Yesterday, Nifty created a lower low than Friday and closed lower by almost 50 points near 7805.

With this close, it also closed below the Evening Star Pattern mentioned in last week, so prima facie, the bias will be negative going forward, however Nifty is now trading near the Window Support of 7710-7770 and it will be very crucial,

Nifty has also marginally broken an upward trend line (shown in the image below) on daily charts which again is a bearish sign and suggests that it might come down till 7720-7750 levels to fill the gap mentioned earlier.

The bias after these two developments will change to negative and markets are expected to trade lower unless we see a significant bullish development on charts.

Levels to watch out for today -

Supports - 7770-7740-7700-7670
Resistances- 7835-7870-7900-7950

Cheers.....

Hrishi

Confused . . .

Hi All,

After rallying up away from the bottom near 7788, Nifty settled near 7850 on Friday’s closing.

As mentioned in earlier post, for rallying further, Nifty needs to sustain above 7850 mark for a while.

On the lower side 7820 and 7780 will be very crucial supports where as on the higher side 7870-7890-7920-7950 will act as resistances.

The bias for the market will be cautious and I will initiate a trade after favourable chart confirmations.

Cheers

Wedge or Non Veg ?

Hi All,

As expected in the morning, Nifty fell sharply in the early hours, took support near 7820 mark and rallied up sharply again to take resistance near the mentioned level of 7890-7900....

Now after breaking 7800 minutely, Nifty again started rallying higher.

On the intraday chart look like Nifty has made a bottom as it has given a break out from a kind of Falling Wedge pattern.

Rrad more on Falling Wedge Pattern

With lows below 7800-7790 acing like good supports, Nifty can rally higher only if it sustains 7850 level on the higher side

Cheers

An Evening Star @ 8 Hajaar (8000) . . . . .

Good Morning All,

Though 8000 was a used resistance, it was strong enough to make market fall by almost 150 points due to its selling pressure.

As mentioned yesterday the bias would have changed to positive only above 8000 mark, which didn’t happen.

On the lower side now 7820-7800 hold the key for bulls, if the level is broken the short term bias might change to negative for neutral.

Nifty has also created a pattern similar to Evening Star Pattern on daily charts which will get confirmed only below 7820-7800 mark. 

Read more on Evening Star Pattern

We will initiate a trade after a favourable price action on charts

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7820-7800-7770-7740-7710

Resistances – 7860-7890-7920-7950-7980-8000

Cheers

Flirting with 8000 . . .

Hi All,

Markets are mingling around the psychological levels of 8000. Though the same was a very crucial resistance, it has now becoming weak as the Nifty touched it for more than 2-3 times, which indirectly means there are high chances that the level will be surpassed.

SGX Nifty was up by more than 20 points, however is very volatile and now trades down by 20 points.

The short term bias for the markets will be positive only if it sustains above 8000 levels till such time its wait and watch . . .

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7950-7930-7910-7850-7820

Resistances – 8000-8040-8120-8185-8230

Cheers

Head & Shoulders ? ? ?

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty took a resistance near the psychological mark of 8000 and fell sharply by more than 100 points.

 

Going forward, the 7870-7840 levels will be very crucial for bulls as they are key supports.

Also if Nifty breaks, it might give a breakdown of the Head & Shoulders (Bearish) Pattern on intraday

charts (Please refer the chart), which means it can fall further to its targets near 7770 levels.

Also RSI on hourly charts have taken resistance near 60 levels which again is a serious bearish sign.

On the higher side, 7925-7950-7980-8000 will continue to act as major resistances for Nifty.

The short term bias will turn negative if Nifty breaks crucial levels of 7870-7840......

We will initiate a trade after favourable developments on charts....

Cheers

Short

Hi all,

Risky traders can take a short position in Nifty near 7970-75, with a stop loss above 8000 and targets near 7950-7920-7900.....

Update @ 10.19 AM -

Nifty nearing first target of 7950..... Book partial profits and trail stop loss at cost....

Update @ 12.43 PM - 

Trail Nifty short stop loss above 7950 levels, trade initiated near 7975....

Update @ 2.45 PM - 

Nifty short trade second & 3rd target achieved @ 7920 and 7900 ...... Book full profits...

Cheers

Hanging Man . . . .! ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty opened up with a gap yesterday, however, gave away all its gains, went in to negative territory, and finally closed flat near 7919.

As posted yesterday, 7950-60 will be the key levels to watch out for further upside, above which the psychological mark near 7980-8000 will act as important resistance.

Nifty on daily charts had given a Hanging Man Pattern on 18^th April, and a close below 7840 could mean further pain for bulls.

On the lower side 7900-7870-7840 will act as good supports for Nifty.

Cheers

Knock Knock . . . Bears.....! ! !

Hi All,

The bias for the markets will remain negative for intraday till the time today’s high is taken out....

Supports on the lower side will be near 7890-7870-7840-7820....

Cheers

Financial Suicide: Are you doing it?

Hi All, came across a nice whats app Forward.... Found it worth sharing....

Mr. Young's Mother-In-Law has gifted Daamadji Rs. 1,00,000 on his birthday. Excited with the windfall he decides to buy the latest smartphone and invest whatever is left. So he is spending Rs. 50,000 and saving Rs. 50,000.

How he buys the smart phone?

He goes to many e-commerce sites, reads customer reviews, then visits gadget review sites and reads expert views and then visits the local mobile store and enquires the rates, enquires with friends which phone to buy, checks his requirements and shortlists the phones and compares them diligently. Spends 2-3 days occupied with this question, brain storming. Tiring!

How he invests?

Chilling with friends: Yaar koi acha share bata, paisa lagana hai.

Friend who knows there is something called equities tells: BUY Dynamite. Upcoming sector, vast potential. Without even doing any research or analysis about the company, Mr. Young invests his hard earned (Mother-In-Law Gift) money and prays to God for double or triple gains.

Now consider:

Will you randomly give any expert or even your friend your money and tell him to buy whichever phone is good for you? Or will you do your own research?

The value of the phone falls by 50% once you step out of the store after purchasing it. It is a depreciating asset. So when you were ready to do all research for a depreciating asset, why not do some research for your investments? 20 years down the line what will matter? Which smartphone you used 20 years back or where you invested money back then?

Sadly, this is how most people invest. Iske Uske kehne par! No research, no knowledge, etc. but hard earned money gambled away. When your friend says bet on India in todays match, you cross question him: Australia is stronger right? But when the same friend says Tata Steel is good to invest, why don't you ask: But steel sector is depressed right?

This is nothing but financial suicide. We go to the best doctors, best lawyers, best counsellors for everything. But when it comes to financial matters we rely on friend, chacha, broker and have no clue where our money is going! Why?

Marching towards Psychological area.....

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty respected the levels of 7840-50 for a while on Wednesday, however comfortably surpassed it and closed marginally above 7850.

Now, as mentioned earlier, it’s likely to start its journey towards the next pit stop near 7970-8000 levels.

We will initiate a trade provided there is an evidence on the intraday charts.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7840-7815-7790-7765-7700

Resistances – 7880-7910-7940-7980-8000

Cheers

Penultimate Levels

Hi All,

Nifty respected the levels of 7700 in the morning trades yesterday however surpassed the levels in the second half and closed above the resistance area.

Which means Nifty will now head towards the penultimate levels of 7740-7780-7800-7840, bulls are advised to stay cautious near these levels are as they are daily resistance areas. Above 7800-7840, possibly Nifty can rally towards 7970-8000 levels.

We will initiate a trade provided there is an evidence on the intraday charts.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7690-7660-7600-7570-7500

Resistances - 7740-7780-7800-7840

Cheers

Bull’s Day Out . . .

Hi All,

Yesterday, markets expected a strong pull back in later part of the session thanks to expectation of better monsoons this year and a surprise closed door Fed meeting last night.

Nifty fell marginally and broke Friday’s low, however managed to bounce back and close positive by more than 100 points. As it has created a higher top higher bottom formation, the lows near 7500 will be very crucial, however jumping on the long trade in morning trades today may not be advisable as Nifty has rallied till 7680 levels which is 61.8% retracement of the fall from 7777 to 7515....

Levels of 7680-7700 will be very crucial for the upside to continue going further. A trade should only be initiated when we see any confirmation on charts, like we had a sell on rise strategy but after a strong rise yesterday we did not get any negative signal and we didn’t short the markets.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7640-7600-7570-7500

Resistances – 7700-7740-7780-7800

Cheers

Wait and Watch . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

Adhering to my previous view, Nifty is looking bearish and the sell on rise strategy might be fruitful in this scenario.

On Friday, Nifty traded in a tight range of around 40 points, and is expected to open on a flat note today, thanks to the global cues as the SGX Nifty is up by 8 points.

For any intraday upmove, Nifty has to necessarily cross the levels of 7570-80, above which it can move up to a strong resistance area near 7600.... One can look forward for selling opportunities near the resistance, provided charts give a confirmation for the same.

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7530-7510-7470-7400

Resistances – 7570-7610-7650-7700-7750-7780

We will initiate a trade after getting a suitable confirmation on charts.....

Cheers

Sell on rise . . . .

Hi All,

As expected the markets broke the crucial levels of 7580-70 and went down further till 7535-40 levels.

As mentioned earlier, Nifty is now likely to target the Rising Wedge target near 7400-7410 levels in coming days, provided there is no bullish confirmation on charts in the meanwhile.

The levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7515-7470-7400

Resistances – 7610-7650-7700-7750-7780

Till such time we do not have any bullish confirmation on charts, Nifty will be a sell on rise story....

Cheers

Trying their level hard....

Hi All,

Hi All, as mentioned yesterday, Nifty did not break the crucial supports near 7580-70 levels and traded marginally higher for the entire day.

Would like to reiterate that Nifty bas will change to negative only below the said levels of 7580-70, though the probability of the same happening is higher, we will play safe before taking any short positions.

Traders can think of remaining on the buy side till the time Nifty is above 7580-70 levels.

Levels to watch out for (No change)  -

Supports – 7570-7510-7470-7400

Resistances – 7650-7700-7740-7785-7800

Cheers

Buy the Rumour, Sell the fact....

Hi All,

As mentioned in the Budget day post, Markets were expecting a rate cut for more than a month now, and has given the upward move based on it. So as per the law of Buy the rumour sell the fact, markets expected to fall once the actual news is announced, and the same happened yesterday where markets tanked by more than 150 points.

While falling yesterday, Nifty also gave 2 bearish patterns, Falling Wedge breakout (Please find the image) and an Evening Star on daily along with a Hanging Man on Weekly charts.

However, the bearishness can only be continued if Nifty breaks the recent swing low of 7580-70 levels, below which Nifty can target close to 7400 levels based on Wedge pattern.

We will wait for further confirmations for taking any specific trade in Nifty....

Levels to watch out for –

Supports – 7570-7510-7470-7400

Resistances – 7650-7700-7740-7785-7800

Cheers

Be on your toes . . .

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier post, Nifty has given a bullish indication on hourly charts, and the is expected to trade upwards...

SGX Nifty is also up by around 28 points....

As usual, we will play safe and try to book profits in the opening trades if the momentum is seen waning.

Be ready to book profits, however, if Nifty opens on a flat note, new positions can be entered with same stop loss.

Cheers!!!