Last chance for bears....

Hi All,

Since we have made good profits of around 60 points yesterday, we can afford to take small risk of around 20-30 points...

Hence, Short Nifty Near 7575-80 SL 7610 Targets near 7550-7500....

Cheers

Update @ 10.30 - 

Book small profits in Nifty near first target of 7550-51, short initiated near 7575-80.3..

Book Partial Profits for those who have multiple lots and trail SL at cost...

Hope you all made money....

Update @ 3.20

Those with multiple lots can now book full profits @ 7585-90 in Nifty shorts initiated near 7475-80.... Better to close position intraday rather taking an overnight trade....

Hope you all are happy...

Cheers

Back with a style.....

Hi All,

Thanks to the Wedge pattern and a RSI Candle Divergence(Charts given below for understanding), Nifty regained all the lost ground of yesterday and closed in the positive territory by 38 points (~0.50%)

On daily chart, after a continuous streak of bearish / indecisive candles, Nifty today gave a nice bullish candle, a reason to rejoice the bulls.

However, for any further upside it is advisable that Nifty sustains above the crucial weekly resistance near 7600....

Till then, the next areas to watch out for on the upside are 7530-7555-7570 and 7600

On the lower side 7475-7435-7420-7400-7375....

SGX Nifty is up by almost 1% (80 points), which suggest that markets are likely to open on a strong note.

In a nutshell, 7600-7640 on the upside will be the key area to watch out for whereas 7400-7370 on the lower side will be crucial support.

Cheers

Please find below the patterns for illustrations....

Book Profits

Hi All,

Book profits in the Nifty Long Trade initiated near 7420-25, at CMP 7485-90....

If clients have multiple lots, they can book half profits now and trail SL at cost...

Hope clients are happy booking profits...

Cheers

Wedge . . .with a Divergence.

Hi All,

Nifty did not cross the mentioned level of 7450, and we are still out of the markets.

However, It took support near 7400 levels as expected, and have given 2 +ve signs for the bulls to cheer, a falling wedge breakout on 15 minutes chart and a Candle RSI Divergence on hourly charts.

As a last chance for bulls, risky traders can buy Nifty near 7420-7225 with a small SL below 7400-7380 with targets intact near 7510-7550-7600....

Cheers

Last chance for Bulls . . .

Hi All,

Nifty opened and could not cross the first resistance near 7480-85..... as a result fell below yesterday’s low of 7453...

As mentioned, Nifty found at least a temporary support near 7440-30 levels and on 15 minutes charts has made a Bullish Hammer Pattern.....

Which means, Nifty can see at least a small bounce if and only if it crosses 7447-7450 levels on the upside at this point in time, CMP 7443....

Risky Traders Can Buy Nifty only and only above 7450-55 with a strict SL below 7400 as a last chance for bulls, with targets near 7510-7550-7600...

Please note – A Long trade should be initiated only above 7550 levels and not now...               

Cheers

End of the Day . . . ? ? ?

Hi All,

Looks Like an Evening Star ! ! !

After falling silently from 7600 levels and creating a Doji candle, Nifty on daily charts has given a bearish pattern which though not a classic one, but looks like an Evening Star.

I still believe, the lows of 7440-7400 will play an even more significant important role now after the formation of such an effective bearish pattern.

If, Nifty has to negate the pattern and move up, ideally it should not break 7450-7440 levels, below which 7400-7390 will be the last ray of hopes for bulls.

On the higher side resistances will be near 7485-7510-7535-7560-7600-7640….

As there is a sense of negativity on daily charts now, our Buy on Dips strategy should not be followed unless there is a strong evidence on the intraday charts.

Will update my view after the first hour of trade.

Cheers

Doji Again . . . .

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty faced resistance near 7600 mark and came down silently till 7520-15 odd levels.

On daily charts, Nifty produced yet another Doji candle, suggesting there is an indecision in the minds of player near the key resistance level of 7600-7640....

We booked profits yesterday in our short trade, and will again look forward for going short with a lower risk near yesterday’s highs, however I will update you on the same. SGX Nifty is trading marginally up by 5 points, hence, markets are expected to open on a flat note.

On the lower side 7510-7475 will be immediate supports for Nifty below which 7550-7535-7520-7500 will be the levels to watch out for. As mentioned in earlier posts, 7400-7390 remains a key for the current uptrend to continue further.

So in a nutshell, 7390-7420 on the lower side and 7600-7640 on the higher side can be a broader range for Nifty and an either side break will confirm the further trend.

A close below / above yesterday’s Doji candle will be a key to watch out for the future course of action...

Cheers

Small risk Trade

Hi All,

Risky traders can think of shorting Nifty near 7575-80... with a strict SL above 7610-15 (7625 levels for Nifty Future).

Update @ 11.10 - 

As expected, Nifty fell steadily from the higher levels and currently trading near support zone of 7440-7450....

Book small Profits of around 20-25 points in Nifty shorts @ 7450-55, initiated at 7475-80.....

Those who have multiple lots can book half profits and trail other half at cost....

Hope you all are making money...

Update @ 11.48 - 

Those holding short positions with multiple lots can book full profits near 7535-7537.... Short trade initiated @ 7575-80...

Cheers...

Cheers

A Diamond

Hi All,

After a stupendous rise of around 450 points, Nifty last week saw more of a range bound move of around 120 points, thereby giving a small real body candle on the weekly charts.

As mentioned earlier, the level of 7540-7550 will remain crucial for any further upside and above which Nifty can travel up to the penultimate level of 7600-7640.

On the lower side 7475-7440-7415-7390 will act as crucial supports to help the bulls gain the corner.

We booked a profit of around 50 points on Friday, and plan of action for today will be wait and watch…

Importantly, Nifty is also making a diamond pattern on hourly charts, hence the break of 7400-7420 levels can also mean a short term trend reversal to the lower side...

Cheers

Bulls waiting..... ! ! ! Let's take a chance....

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty took resistance near 7550 levels and dropped sharply, however it is trading near the support zone of 7430-7450....

Risky Traders can Go Long in Nifty near 7470-7475 with SL below the supports (Risk of < Rs.2000 for 1 lot of futures) with targets near 7500-7530-7550....

Update @ 12.35 - 

Long trade initiated near 7470-75 levels, is nearing first target near 7500..... Conservative traders can book partial profits and trail SL at cost.....

Update 12.55 -

Conservative traders can book full profits in Nifty near 7515-7520, rest can trail stop loss at cost...

Hope you made money today and recovered the loss of yesterday.

Update - 13.18-

It’s advisable to book profits in Nifty @ 7515, as the Advance Decline Ratio is not in favour of bulls, so play safe and Enjoy the profits for the day....

Nifty future trading at par with spot after a discount in the morning, so we might be booking out early but better to have a small profit ...rather than incurring a loss

Cheers

Stuck . . .! ! !

Hi All,

Unfortunately, after triggering our stop loss for the Long trade yesterday, Nifty bounced back sharply from 7450 levels to 7506 levels in the second of the day.

However, in spite of the bounce back Nifty could not hold on to those gains and closed negative by half 0.5% (45 points) @ 7486, which means after a solid bounce from 6825 levels for almost 4-5 days, Nifty gave a first bearish candle on daily charts which can be a sign of concern for bulls.

On the lower side 7390-7420-7450 will act as supports where as on the upside 7510-7535-7550 will act as resistances.

Till the markets are trading between 7400-7550 levels, they are expected to consolidate before deciding the further course of action, hence it is advisable for traders to keep a strict watch on these levels and then take a trade if some supporting evidence appear on the charts.

Cheers

Let's Take a Chance....

Hi All,

Nifty gave a Hammer Candle on the intraday charts with a support of Supertrend indicator.

Risky traders Can Go Long in Nifty only above 7500 with SL Below 7470..... Initial targets can be 7540-7550....

Please note . . SL modified below 7460...

@ 11.20 AM A Surprise fall in Nifty triggered the slop loss by 20 paise.... For such clients for whom the SL orders were not placed, can hold the position by keeping SL below the day’s low.

Cheers

Wait and Watch.....

Hi all,

Nifty slipped sharply by 50 points, we will wait for a signal to go long rather than just buying because it fell down.....

Cheers

Hrishi

Bulls win.......

Hi All,

As mentioned yesterday, Nifty had given a couple of alarming candlestick Patterns, i.e. Hanging Man and Doji, however yesterday’s strong close above the key levels of 7520-30 will negate the impact of these patterns.

As our regular strategy, rather than buying on a break out of resistance, one can think of entering on dips. Intraday supports near 7505-7490-7475

Next pit stop now will be near 7580-7610....

7610-7620 will be the next key areas to watch out for the medium term trend reversal.

Cheers!

It's a Doji.....

Hi All,

On daily charts Nifty has created a Doji pattern (sign of acute indecision) after the Hanging man pattern on Friday.

Which now means, that owing to the confusion created by these patterns, Nifty will have crucial levels at 7440-30 on the lower side and 7520-30 on the higher side. A sustainable move beyond these levels will decide the future course of the price action.

We booked another small profit yesterday in the short trade and Nifty bounced back sharply from thereof to close almost flat near 7485, hence giving us a Doji Pattern on daily charts.

After taking profitable trades on 2 consecutive day, we will wait and watch today for the price action to gain a momentum, SGX Nifty is down by 25 points which means it will open near 7450-60 odd levels.

Levels to watch out for today are –

Supports – 7440-30-7415-7395-7340

Resistances – 7520-30-7580-7610-7650-7680

Cheers

Book Profits....

Hi All,

As expected Nifty did not cross resistance of 7520-30..... Book profits in short initiated today @ 7490.... CMP 7455.....

Those who shorted multiple lots, can book half profits now and trail SL at cost for the remaining half...

Cheers

Hanging Man . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned earlier, Nifty is expected to find resistance near 7500-7530 mark and any upside is only possible after sustaining above the said levels.

I know that we booked out our Nifty short at a small profit on Friday and if we have to hold the same we might have gotten higher profits, however the trade was booked as it was a long weekend which can anytime get unpredictable.

On the lower side, 7440 will be a very crucial level and has not become a used support, hence a break below it could see sharp reactions in markets. Below 7440-7395-7420 will be good intraday supports.

On daily charts after a strong run of 3-4 days, Nifty gave a red candle on Friday which looks like the Hanging Man Pattern, may not be a strong reversal but at least suggests a pause in the uptrend and which, as mentioned earlier can be healthy for further upside.

In a nutshell, on the higher side 7520-30 needs to be crossed for further upside till 7580-7610-7650-7680, and on the lower side supports will be near 7440-7415-7395-7340

Risky traders can again take a small risk... Short Nifty @ 7490-95  SL above 7520....

Cheers

It's good to have this clild... Worth reading

Hi all,

Came across a nice what's app forward.

The Best ever message sent by an Advisor to his Clients 👍🏼👍🏼

Think of Equity as your 3rd Child ⭐⭐🙏🏼🙏🏼

Most families have two children. We spend a lot of money over a 25 year period in educating our children, providing for all their needs, marrying them off - in short, getting them well settled in life. I tell my clients to think of equity as their 3rd child.

Put in the same amount each year into an equity fund that you spend on one child.

Do that for the same 25 years. After 25 years, whether your real children look after you or not, this 3rd child will look after you very well for the rest of your life.
That you can be sure of 👍🏼👍🏼

Happy extended weekend with small profits...! ! !

Hi All,

We earlier missed the opportunity to book it near the support area mentioned in morning of 7440-50.... Nifty had bounced back from the same zone.

On a safer side, it is advisable to book a small 0.25% profit in Nifty at 7461-63 shorts initiated near 7485-90 levels in morning as we have an extended weekend (Monday is off) and let us take our next bet on markets in a new week after the weekend.

Cheers

Warning - Obstacle Ahead . . ! ! !

Hi All,

Yet another positive opening....

Hi All, thanks to global cues, SGX Nifty is already up by around 30-35 points hence markets are going to open positive, however the opening will be near the resistance zone of 7500-7525 and crossing that areas remains a crucial task for bulls.

After 3 consecutive gap up openings and a movement of close to 10% from the Budget day bottom, it is surely expected that markets should pause a bit for a further healthy up run.

Levels to watch out for intraday will be

Resistances – 7500-7525-7585-7610-7650

Supports – 7440-7390-7335-7295-7215

Traders, especially Long traders are advised to trade cautiously as the Nifty likely to be opening near the daily resistance zone and a reaction from that level by bears cannot be ruled out.

Risky traders can Short Nifty near 7485-90 SL above 7520 (spot Levels)

Cheers

Nifty Post Budget Rally 10%* (Not out) - A Breather required.....

Hi All,

Hi all, as expected Nifty rallied higher buy another 0.5% after crossing 7450 levels till almost 7485 levels. The next pit stop is near 7500-7520.

As per derivatives data, 7500 Call option has the highest open interest, somewhat suggesting that this level is critical for bulls and that’s the reason we booked out our long position a bit early being on the safer side.

After 7500 levels, if sustained, Nifty can however move up towards next targets near 7610-7645-7685-7730....

A weekly close above 7600 levels will mean a lot for bulls for midterm perspective.

Nifty has rallied sharply this week and the size of the daily candles started to shrink, which surely suggest a likely breather from Nifty and the same will prove to be healthier for Nifty’s further upmove. (coz as we know what goes up comes down, so a break is surely required for healthier upside ahead)

Cheers.

Play Safe....

Hi All,

Let us play safe,

Book Partial / Full profits of around 20-25 points in Nifty and trail stop loss at cost.... Nifty CMP 7470...

Cheers

Personal View

Hi all,

Risk takers can Go Long on Nifty @ 7445-7450 with SL below 7400 and targets near 7520

Cheers

Bull hai ke maanata nahi.....

Hi All,

Bulls in control again....

Markets are not willing to hold on, and are expected to open higher today also, SGX Nifty is up around 50 odd points.

As mentioned earlier, 7400-7420 will be crucial levels to watch out for on the upside, sustaining above which can take Nifty to higher levels of 7500-7530....

As suggested yesterday, rather buying at the opening, it would be advisable to enter on dips of around 40-50 points if the scenario is favourable for bulls then.

Nifty future discount and Advance Decline ratio will be key areas to watch out today....

Cheers

Time Please . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

Nifty ended the day up by 146 points at 7368, thus closing the gap on daily charts which is a good sign, however crossing 7400 will accelerate the up move further.

As mentioned Nifty future discount which can be an alarming signal and a huge rise of more than 8% from the bottom in just 2-3 trading days can result in to a breather for Nifty in coming days.

Today’s rally was more  on account of RBI’s decision to allow easier capital recognition for banks (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-allows-easier-capital-recognition-norms-for-banks/articleshow/51217332.cms)

Also there are expectations and rumours (flashed on CNBC) about a Rate cut by RBI in couple of days which helped markets to gain this extra mile in 2 days.

With rule, Buy the rumour sell the Fact, after the rate cut, if any, a fall in Nifty, at least temporarily cannot be ruled out.....

The plan of action now needs to be very cautious after such a steep rise in prices. 7390-7400 will now act as the resistance for Nifty and the same was almost tested today with the high of 7380.

Any trade should not be take without a confirmation on charts / events/news etc.

Cheers

Observation.....

Hi all,

As expected Nifty continued its journey on the upside and trading strongly currently with gains of more than 150 points.

However, thought of sharing one observation, as Nifty started scaling new intraday highs, the futures gave away its premium and now trading at a steep discount of around 20 points, may not be a bearish sign without any other Derivatives confirmation, however surely can be an alarming sign and an indication to move trailing stop losses closer for the long trades.

On daily charts Nifty managed to fill the gap between 7323-7363 by creating a high near 7380, however as mentioned earlier in the morning did not surpass the resistance area near 7370-80, it would be advisable now for Nifty to close above 7370 mark for further upside.

                                                                                                                                                                

Cheers

Northward Journey to Continue.....

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty conformed a post Budget Rally yesterday by rising almost 250 points (200 above 25^th Feb close) and closing strongly above 7200.

Going forward, it is expected to go further up as the SGX Nifty is already positive by 100+ points.

Levels to watch out for on the upside will be 7280-7320.... Nifty is expected to open above 7280 mark, which means 7320-7370 will be the key areas to watch for.

On the lower side supports are intact near 7150-7120-6970-6950-6920-6900-6870-6820

With this tremendous upside in these two days, if today’s gains are held throughout the day, one can conclude that a short term bottom is in place and Nifty will battle out higher resistances near 7520-7640-7700.

Bias for the markets will remain bullish, unless any negative pattern is developed on daily / intraday charts.

Later update.....

Nifty opened higher by 100 points and touched the level of 7350, however for this rally to continue, it is very crucial to hold these gains for the day and close strongly in the positive territory...

Cheers

Post Budget Rally of ` 3% confirmed.....

Hi All,

It's official - Post Budget Rally of almost 3%... Hence proved History Repeats itself....

As expected, the Nifty shot up smartly after breaching the 7150-7160 mark and currently trading near 7210.

On the higher side 7250-7260 remains the next hurdle for markets and if it crosses and sustains above it then 6820 may be called as the short term bottom.

On the safer side, it is advisable to book all the profits in the longs initiated at lower levels and wait and watch for 7250-7260....

On the lower side, 7150-7120 will now act as crucial supports and below which Nifty can slid further till next supports near 6970-6950-6920-6900-6870-6820.

Nevertheless 6820-6800 remains very crucial levels to watch out for an even bigger move....

Cheers

A Post Budget Rally.... Started ? ? ?

Hi All,

A Post Budget Rally....

As expected in the post dated 26^th Feb, Nifty started its Budget rally soon after the Budget was over yesterday, now it will be interesting to check whether the same will  continue going forward.

As mentioned in the morning update, after sustaining above the 7090-7100 mark, Nifty rallied smartly towards its next resistance near 7150-7160.

Going forward now, a move above 7150 for today will mean some more bullishness for the markets, with supports near 7130-6970-6950-6920-6900-6870-6820.

Nifty has retraced more than 61.8% of the recent fall from 7250 to 6820 and the next hurdle also remains at 7160-65 levels (78.6%)

So in a nutshell, bulls entered at lower levels today near 7100 (or even lower than that) can once book profits near 7140 levels on a conservative side, or hold the long with a stop loss below the cost / the mentioned supports earlier.

Cheers

Roller Coaster Ride over....

Hi All,

In a roller coaster ride yesterday, Nifty went down by almost 200 points, however, as expected it took a solid support near 6800-6850 levels and bounced back sharply and also went in to positive territory, however managed to close the crucial day of Budget negative by 42 points at 6987....

Nifty gave a sort of a bullish candle yesterday however it does not have any recognizable pattern on daily charts, on hourly charts though, Nifty managed to give a Hammer pattern hence yesterday’s low of 6825 will act as crucial support.

On the lower side 6950-6920-6900-6870-6820 will act as supports for the markets, where as on the upside, 7100-7150-7180-7260 will act as resistances.

After the completion of the event yesterday, the Volatility is expected to cool off a bit, and can find supports near 17% (Currently trading at 20.16%)

For any meaningful upside, Nifty has to first cross the high of yesterday i.e. 7095-7100 convincingly.

There were news that RBI might come out with a surprise rate cut in couple of days, and if that happens can be a positive news for the markets.

On the Daily line chart Nifty has not yet given a lower close, and a close below 6970 will have negative implications for markets with final supports near 6800-6820 levels.

Cheers

A Nice comparison between INDvsPAK and Markets . . .

Volatility Cup (Nilesh Shah, Kotak MF)
******
A friend has written about yesterday's match.  I have taken it a step further into the realm of the stock market. Would like to have your reactions, friends.

(1) India scored 85/5 against Pak's 83 all out, but 3 Indian batsmen got out for a duck; none for Pak,

(2) In a low scoring match, India's best bowler Ashwin was the worst of all Indian bowlers 3-0-21-0. Only Wahab Riaz was worse than him in the match. Easy (but completely unfair) to conclude from a single match that Ashwin was the worst bowler

(3) The second highest score in both teams was "extras". If we total up the runs in both innings, "extras" was second highest score after Virat. "Extras" accounted for more than 17% of total runs scored n the match.

(4) Only 18 boundaries were scored in the entire match. Virat hit 7 of those, just one less than the entire Pakistan team's 8. Not a single six in the whole match.

NOW HERE IS MY INTERPRETATION FROM A 'MARKETS PERSPECTIVE'.

What happened yesterday was a complete and unexpected 'sell off' causing severe volatility.Hence even class players (companies) looked like duds. Had Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Suresh Raina and Ashwin been companies, would an astute investor write them off???

Similarly when the companies in a mutual fund scheme lose value unusually in a 'sell off' causing the NAV ( total score ) to fall sharply, be smart, be astute, gain the maturity. Never write them off.
Instead think about yesterday's game.

For they will all rise without a warning. Look at Yuvraj and Ashish Nehra. Despite age catching up with them, they continue to deliver.

Invest in the Indian team if you believe in them. Ignore volatility caused by some unusual matches.

If you believe in the story of India, keep fears of the market in your closet, lock it and throw away the keys.

The D-DAY ! ! !

Hi All,

The D-Day

On the decider day Nifty is likely to open on a flat to negative note, thanks to the global cues and SGX Nifty, which is down by around 20 points.

As posted on Friday, Nifty created a Hammer like pattern on Friday and the same will be confirmed only above 7052-7060 levels.

On the lower side the recent swing low of 6950-60 will be crucial to watch out for and below that 6850 will remain last hope for bulls.

Traders are advised to take even intraday positions on either side with strict stop losses as markets are expected to be choppy on account of the Union Budget 2016

The opening trades and pre Budget moves can be misleading so it is advised to take trades when the markets settle.

Cheers