Bang On . . . . . ! ! ! !

Hi All,

As per our prediction, Nifty opened with huge gap down of more than 100 points and did not respect the support of 7350.

Now for any intraday bounce it should hold 7240-7260 levels....

Cheers

Bulls defeated . . . ! ! !

Hello Everyone,

Exactly as expected yesterday morning, Nifty scaled higher till 7510 mark, however could not give an hourly close above the same, hence, hammered badly and closed lower by more than 100points at 7387.25

Though, it is currently trading near a support of 7350 levels, the way it fell sharply yesterday, doesn’t look like Nifty will hold the same and expected to break that level, even the SGX Nifty (down by 60 points) and global markets (Nikkei down by 5%) are suggesting that.

Intraday bias for the day looks like negative unless there is any bullish confirmation on hourly / 15 minutes charts.

Levels to watch out for intraday are –

Supports – 7320-7300-7260-7235

Resistances – 7410-7460-7510

Traders are advised to be cautious, as the India Vix index (Volatility index) was up by > 11% yesterday and the same has bounced back from the support zone of 15.50 – 16.50% as posted earlier. Also on account of the key economic events lined up the volatility is expected to rise further.

Cheers

At a crucial juncture . . . ! ! ! !

Hi Everyone,

As expected Nifty scaled higher and it should likely go up, however as per the earlier posts, it is taking resistance near 7500-7510 mark and at least an hourly close above 7510 level is extremely crucial for Nifty going forward.

Intraday bias remains positive till the time Nifty is trading above 7440-7435 levels.

Levels to watch out for intraday

Supports – 7440-7395-7350

Resistances – 7510-7535-7580-7610        

Cheers

Not loosing ground . . . .

Hi all,

As per morning update, Nifty scaled higher and crossed the resistance of the hourly and 15 minutes chart patterns, which now means that it is likely to go further up. A close above 7510-15 levels will mean a lot for Nifty and then once can expect that it will even cross the highs of 7610-7640 as well because they are weak resistances now.

Cheers

War Field . . . ! ! !

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty could not cross the resistance mark near 7460-65 levels (yesterday’s high was of 7457.05) and sold off by more than 0.50% intraday.

For today, Nifty is likely to open on a flattish note as per SGX Nifty which is down by 4 odd points.

Intraday view – Nifty has created a Morning Star Pattern yet again on 15 minutes charts and also has a Hammer like pattern on hourly charts, the bias for Nifty will turn positive for the day only above the highs of these patterns near 7430-7465 respectively.

On the lower side as said yesterday 7360-7340 will now act as key supports below which we can expect Nifty to go further down near 7320-7300-7250-7230

For midterm bias, 7240-7230 holds the key and breaching this level would mean that the short term bias will again change to bearish, the id term bias which was bearish with a reversal level above 7640-7730 will aggravate below 7230 and the gates for 7100-6900 are then wide open for markets.

Traders are advised to trade cautiously with proper stop losses for both long and short trades as the volatility is expected to go up on account of key announcements like Rail Budget (26^th Feb), Union Budget (29^th Feb) and Economic Survey (25^th Feb).

Cheers

Hrishi

Star Wars..... Ears Win . . .! ! ! !

Hi All,

The battle of Bulls and Bears with Morning & Evening stars, the bears won yesterday and as per our expectation, after breaking the earlier resistance and now support of 7500, Nifty tanked by almost 150 points to create a low of 7350 odd levels.

Near the bottom of 7350, Nifty completed 71% retracement of the entire rise from 7240 to 7600 levels and after a strong gap up opening today, there is a small respite for bulls and 7350 will now act as a support going forward...

Levels to watch out for intraday are

Supports – 7400-7350-7320-7250-7230-7200

Resistances – 7435-7460-7510-7580-7610-7640

In a nutshell, the intraday bias for the Nifty will be bearish till the time 7460-65 levels are not breached.(as the key support of 7400 is broken and on account of Evening Star Pattern on daily charts)

Traders are advised to trade cautiously as the India Vix index has bounced back sharply yet again from the lows of 17.30% and now trades near 18.1%

Cheers

Star Wars . . . .

Hi All,

Exactly as expected, Nifty took a solid resistance near the first target of the short term bias of 7610 and my view on bulls need to be cautious turned out to be right. Today, Nifty even broke 7500 levels, and closed below the same significantly. Today’s fall was more on account of a sharp bounce in the India Vix index from daily support zone as mentioned earlier. India Vix bounced back from 16.48% (daily support near 15.50-16.50%) to 18.30% almost.

In this bargain, Nifty has given an Evening Star Pattern on daily charts, which is a sign of concern, however the pattern didn’t exactly appear at the end of an uptrend, so the harm may be limited. Evening Star will get conformed only if Nifty breaks 7400-7380 mark and stay there for a while. In my earlier post dated 25th Jan 2016, there was a Morning Star (Bullish) pattern on hourly charts and now we have its bearish counterpart on daily....

In a nutshell, the short term bias will continue to be bullish till the time Nifty trades above 7380-7400 levels, the medium term bias was negative and will continue to be dovish till the time Nifty does not surpass the up side hurdles near 7610-7640-7740.

Traders have to keenly keep a track of the globe tonight for tomorrows opening, SGX Nifty will give a hint.....

Cheers ! ! !

Be Cautious . . .

Hi Everyone....

As expected, Nifty is facing resistance near 7600-7640 levels and bulls are expected to be cautious.

Also, India Vix is up today by 4.5% which is a sign of concern for bulls...

Cheers

Hrishi

Bulls's day out . . ! ! !

Hi Everyone...

As expected Nifty took support near 7400 mark as mentioned earlier and bounced back. After breaching the 7500 resistance Nifty rallied further by almost 1% and closed at 7563.

As it has crossed the 7500 resistance the next pit stop now is near 7610-7640.... and above that 7720-7740 remains very crucial as the Nifty 7450 Straddle Break Even Point (on the first day of the new expiry series yesterday) is also at the same level.

Currently the short term bias is continue to be positive (was changed from bearish to bullish on 22^nd Jan after the Last engulfing pattern) with targets near 7610-7640-7730, and I think the midterm bias will also turn bullish above 7730-40 levels.

Traders are advised to still be cautious as India Vix (Volatility Index is still on the higher side @ 17.24% and trading near a daily support.

Cheers

Hrishi

Gap down and covered.... ! ! !

Hi All,

As per yesterday's post, Nifty opened down by around 30-35 points and then recovered sharply.

Nifty currently trades around 7500, up by almost a percentage point. and a key resistance near 7500.

all the levels are same as per yesterday's post (Just scroll down the Blog).... the bias is positive above the resistances...

Cheers....

Gap down tomorrow. . .

Got this informative forward which makes sense

So even if markets break 7400 we have to discount it on these factors...

Need not panic as lot of people saying the same thing which usually doesn't work. Or it may open down and then cover up during the day

Observation

Nifty 7450 Straddle Break even point I.e. BEP is 7180 and 7720. As per earlier posts 7730 is a key resistance technically. So with confluence of indicators suggesting 7720..7740 levels.. it becomes very crucial
Tomorrow ICICI and Maruti will go down by 5-10%

The forward...

ICICI weight in nifty 5.8%..
Maruti weight in nifty 1.9%..
Total 7.7%..
Now 7.7% of 7400 is 570 points..
A fall of 7.5% of 570 points is 43 points..

This is fall likely due to these 2 counters tomorrow
Bharti Also has 2% weightage ..
A fall of 4% there is also likely..
Reliance, pharma and  software may cushion the fall

So we are likely to open gap down below 7400

Cheers

All eyes on Expiry ! ! !

Hi All,

After facing resistance near 7500, Nifty fell by almost 1% and found support near the first zone mentioned, i.e. 7420 and bounced back sharply by around 60 points, however was not able to cross 7500 mark.

Today, markets can witness a bit of extra volatility, on account of F&O expiry, hence traders are advised to trade with strict stop losses.

Though the bias for Nifty is positive due to candlestick patterns on daily and weekly charts, for any meaning full upside Nifty has to surpass 7500 mark.

Levels to watch out for –

Resistance – 7490-7510-7550-7610-7640

Supports – 7415-7390-7320-7270-7240...

Cheers!

Hrishi

Wait & Watch . . .! ! !

Hi All,

As expected Nifty faced a resistance near 7470-7500 zone and came down marginally to around 7420 levels.

Even today in spite of strong SGX Nifty (up by 40 points odd) Nifty opened gapped up but gave away all its gains and currently trading flat, up by just 1 point.

Due to couple of candlestick patterns on the daily and weekly charts, the bias is positive for the markets, but advisably Nifty should cross and sustain 7500 mark.

Levels to watch out for –

Resistance – 7490-7510-7550-7610-7640

Supports – 7415-7390-7320-7270-7240...

Traders are advised to trade cautiously on account of F&O expiry tomorrow. India Vix also is trading near a support zone, and if held can bounce back sharply, which is a negative sign for Nifty...

Cheers

Hammer - A Sigh of Relief for Bulls ! ! !

Hi All,

Thanks to the Last Engulf Pattern on daily charts and Morning star pattern on hourly charts, Nifty has already bounced back by almost 3-3.5%.

It’s now trading near its resistance zone of 7470-7500, above which Nifty can go up till 7550-7610...

Finally, there is good news for the bulls that on Weekly charts Nifty has created a Hammer Pattern, and prices have already went higher than last week’s highest price which is a good sign.

However, playing safe, it is advisable to wait for a cross of 7610 mark before calling it a confirm short term bottom. Above 7610 mark Nifty can then scale new highs of 7700+ and after closing above 7730 (a gap on daily charts) one can even call for a medium term bottom for Nifty as well.

In a nutshell, Nifty currently trading near  crucial zone 7470-7500, and after surpassing that bulls should pray for a successful breach of 7610 level.

Supports on the lower side are 7440-7390-7320-7370-7340...

Cheers

Ray of Good Hope . . .! ! !

Hi All,

As expected yesterday, Nifty bounced back sharply by almost 2% from yesterday's close, thanks to the Morning Star Pattern mentioned earlier on hourly charts and a Rickshaw Man Pattern on the Daily charts. Going forward, 7200-7230 becomes very crucial supports now.

Nifty currently trading @ 7410 up by around 133 points and is trading near a retracement resistance area of 7420-25 (78.6% retracement), above it the next crucial level is 7470-7500 which was also mentioned in the earlier posts.

On daily charts, interestingly, Nifty has again given a Last Engulf Pattern (means a bearish engulf pattern after a down trend) which had earlier pulled back nifty in mid of December 2015 from 7500 levels to 7900 levels. with this pattern in mind, though not a concrete confirmation, but a bounce can not be ruled out.

For short term traders a move above 7470-7500 can trigger a further up move, however, it is advisable not to just jump on the stocks after they surpass the resistances as due to high volatility the direction of the price action can be short lived.

Will keep updating about the further developments...

To sum it up, a small ray hope for bulls started to be visible with multiple small confirmations on hourly and daily charts, however a concrete confirmation will be advisable before calling this point as a short term reversal.

The level to watch out on higher side will be 7470-7500-7610-7640
Supports on the lower sides will be 7380-90-7350-7320-7240-7200


Cheers

Hrishi

Interesting - Fibonacci Series or Hemachandra Numbers ? ? ?

Hi All,

We all have heard of the Fibonacci series / numbers which were invented in 1202 by Leonardo Bonacci, however as per Prof Manjul Bhargav, a Canadian-American mathematician and a  Fields Medal winner in 2014 (Given for excellence in the field of Maths once in 4 years), this series was first invented by Acharya Hemachandra, a jain scholar, poet and Polymath born in India some 150-200 years before the Fibonacci series was invented, or I think I should say discovered.

Please check this 11 minute video for knowing how he came out with this theorem from the poetry perspective and also to learn mathematics with Tabla,. Daisies and lot many interesting facts.

Bermuda Triangle Mystery revealed in Rig Veda & Atharva Veda

Hi All, 

Too much of market might get boring, so here is an interesting article I found on Bookfact.com

Bermuda Triangle Mystery revealed in Rig Veda & Atharva Veda

2

Bermuda Triangle or the Devil’s Triangle, is a region in the western part of the North Atlantic Ocean, where a number of aircraft and ships are said to have disappeared under mysterious circumstances.
Even though the US Navy says that Bermuda Triangle does not exist, many have attributed various disappearances to the paranormal or activity by extraterrestrial beings.
But till date, nobody could find out actual reason behind this mystery.

Many believe that there is a hidden pyramid inside the atlantic ocean, which pulls everything towards it like a magnet.
It was named as “danger region” for about 500 years after disappearance of ships & planes. In 1492 during journey to America, Columbus saw some glitterness in this region and his magnetic compass got disturbed.
In 1909, a fishing boat got disappeared. On 5th Dec 1945, a flight started from Florida (USA), when went about 120 miles east, its contact was broken from base station and plane disappeared.
In 1948, a ship carrying 27 travelers disappeared in Bermuda region.
In 1951, another ship carrying 53 travelers disappearedin this region. Due to safety and precautionary reasons,
all routes for ships & planes have been made out of this triangle.

Bermuda Triangle Mystery revealed in Rig Veda

Although there is a similar demon described in first ever poem, Ramayana, it does not match with the geographical location.
Simhika, the gigantic demon had the power to attract anything’s shadow flying over ocean and pull it into the waters.
However, that was on the way to Lanka.

Brahmanda Purana (composed more than 5000 years ago) and Rig Veda (written more than 23000 years ago) clearly state that the planet Mars was born our of Earth.
That is why he is called as Bhauma (‘son of Bhumi’) or Kuja (Ku = Earth + Ja = Born out of ) in Sanskrit.
Asya Vamasya Sukta in Rig Veda states :”When Earth gave birth to Mars, and Mars seperated from his mother, her thigh got injured and she became imbalanced (Earth rotated in its axis) and to stop it Godly doctors, Aswini Kumars poured iron into the triangular shaped injury and Earth got fixed in her current position.
That is why Earth’s axis is bent at a particular angle. ”

That triangular shaped injury on our planet which was filled with iron went onto become Bermuda Triangle.
Iron stored inside earth for years becomes natural magnet and Bermuda disappearances, fog, high and low temperature water streams colliding are a result of this.

Moon was also born out of churning of milky ocean and when it rocketed out from Earth at latitude of about 23½ a huge bump created by its ejection came in line with Sun.
So, Earth has tilted axis at 23½
Modern science could not explain this phenomenon and also the strange coincidence that Earth is titled at 23½ degress and Bermuda Triangle is also at 23½ !

Bermuda Triangle Mystery revealed in Atharva Veda

Atharva Veda has description of several gems. One of them is Darbha gem, which is described in Sukta 28, 29 & 30, by Darbha gem. So, electro-magnetic waves going from wireless system or coming to system are disturbed and wireless system fails.
Darbha gem is like a very short form of neutron star, which has high density.
Similarly, Darbha gem also has high density so there is high gravitation due to Darbha gem. There is emission of high energetic electro-magnetic waves due to Darbha gem, probably due to nuclear reactions happening in it. Intensities of electric & magnetic field associated with electro-magnetic waves are very high.
This gem could be a powerful and dangerous weapon.

Khanda 19 of Atharva Veda, Mantra 4 of Sukta 28, states : “As the Sun brings down clouds on earth in the same way oh! Darbha gem you fall down the rising enemies.”
It means that there is gravitational force due to Darbha gem inside water.
Mantra 5 of Sukta 29, says, “As the curd is stirred in the same way oh! Darbha gem you stir enemies.”
It means to stir the bodies is a property of Darbha gem.
In Mantra 7 of Sukta 29, says, “to burn the bodies”;
It means there is emission of high energetic rays like laser rays by Darbha gem, which destroy bodies.

So properties of Darbha gem are:
1) High gravitational field.
2) Stir bodies coming near to it.
3) Emission of high energetic rays.

All these properties of Darbha gem, explain the phenomena of Bermuda Triangle.

Mars (Mangala / Kuja) has Triangle shaped Yantra in Vedic Astrology

In Vedic Astrology, Mars (Mangala or Kuja) is red in color (similar to what moden scientists discovered), had water bodies on it (dried river beds found by NASA).
Coral, the gemstone related to Mars is also red in color and found only under sea waters.
What is even more astonishing is that, Yantra is Mars is triangle (tilted) shaped.
In that way, Mars is brother of all humans born on planet Earth.
Mars also controls all land related issues in human lives like Real Estate Business, Agriculture, Siblings etc in astrology.

Modern scientists assume presence of methane hydrates, which indicates enormous eruptions of methane bubbles that would swamp a ship, and projected high into the air- take out flying airplanes, as well.

Any ship caught within the methane mega-bubble immediately lose all buoyancy and sink to the bottom of the ocean.
If the bubbles are big enough and possess a high enough density they can also knock aircraft out of the sky with little or no warning.
Aircraft falling victim to these methane bubbles will lose their engines-perhaps igniting the methane surrounding them-and immediately lose their lift as well, ending their flights by diving into the ocean and swiftly plummeting.

References :

• Atharva Veda, Khand 19, Sukta 28, 29 & 30.
• Bermuda Triangle

Market Update

Hi all,

Nifty did not cross the 7355-60 mark in the morning and fell sharply to re test the yesterday’s low near 7240.

However it saw a solid bounce from that area and rallied almost by 80 points (>1%)

After the further developments on the hourly charts A morning Star Pattern, though not exactly as books) Nifty should cross 7330-7360 levels to continue their pull back on the up, on lower side; 7230-7200 will act as good psychological supports, below which the 7100-7120 levels looks almost inevitable....

In a nut shell, though there are small intraday bounces in Nifty from supports are visible, a concrete conformation is not yet there on any charts for bulls to call it as a short term trend reversal.

Discount to Premium

Hi All,

One more observation

Nifty future had slipped in to discount in yesterday’s trading and was in discount even at the close and opening trades today. However, now the Nifty future again started to trade in premium again, it can be a very interesting observation as I have seen this happening at the short term bottoms at least.

Still, we will not jump on conclusion unless we have any other significant reason to start searching for a bottom, but keep this point in mind.

Because of the Nifty future development we will not it as a complete bearish bias and we will trade based on support and resistances according to chart confirmations

Nifty fell sharply from the resistance near 7400, and took support near higher end of yesterday’s trading range near 7330. Aggressive traders can go long with a stop loss below 7300. On a conservative side, a buy trade can be initiated above 7400.

Further intraday up move can be expected above 7355-60 levels....

Cheers

Rickshaw Man . . .! ! !

Hi All,

While falling by more than 100 points, Nifty has given a Rickshaw Man pattern on the daily charts thanks to the morning freak trade of 7470.

The Rickshaw Man Pattern is the same pattern which appeared on the hourly charts on 13^th January (3^rd hourly candle) after which Nifty fell a bit to start off with, however then gave an upward movement of > 150 points. This pattern shows that there is a lot of indecision and markets can see a huge move either side.

Nifty currently trading at 7394 up by 85 points from yesterday’s close. The bias still remains cautious as still there is not enough confirmation on any charts for a pull back by bulls except the Rickshaw Man pattern explained above.

Going forward levels to watch out for will be

Resistances – 7400 – 7425 – 7475 – 7550 – 7610

Supports – 7350 – 7330 – 7300 – 7235

As the bias still not changed from bearish to bullish, sell on the rise strategy near resistances can be applied for higher probability trades.

Cheers.....

How to trade Triangles

Hi All,

Found a nice article on www.tradeceity.com

How to trade breakouts – things to look for in a successful breakout

Rolf - Tradeciety.com indicators, technical analysis Leave a comment 3,036 Views

Markets spend a lot of time ranging. Knowing how to spot and identify a successful breakout can help a trader find good trading opportunities and stay away from fake breakouts and low probability trades.  There are a handful of clues and things to look for in a potential breakout that can signal whether a breakout is going to be successful or not.

Look for tight range with low volatility and increasing momentum

A tight range is typically the prelude to a new trend. During a long and narrow range, such as the one on the AUD/USD in the screenshot below, there is a lot of position building and trend-preparation going on inside. It is obvious that price touched the upper boundary many times, but failed to break; this is clue number one.

The low volatility (ATR) indicates that there wasn’t a big fight between buyers and sellers going on inside the range.  A low volatility range environment usually makes for cleaner breakouts; this is clue number two.

During the ranging period, the RSI hovered in the middle which means a lack of momentum. Just before the breakout occurred, momentum started picking up and the RSI started to go down faster – clue number three.

On the actual breakout, you could only see bearish candles and the size of the candles increased as well. There was little to no opposition from the bullish side during the actual breakout. Such a breakout is likely to succeed because it shows the strong imbalance between sellers and buyers; final clue.

click to enlarge

A trend change: sell-off, consolidation, rally

The next screenshot shows a different type of breakout. After a sell-off, price started to consolidate. This range is very different than the previous one and you can see a lot of volatility on the ATR; the candles have long wicks which signals the strong fight between bulls and bears.

Before the breakout to the upside occurred, price moved to the lower side of the range but failed to break it; clue number one.

Just before the breakout, price started to show bullish candles exclusively and momentum on the RSI started to pick up; clue number two.

The break of the moving average was a Doji candle and price closed above the moving average afterwards; clue number three. There was a little consolidation after the large bullish candle, but price never moved against the breakout.

click to enlarge

Consolidation breakout in a trend

The third type of breakout can be found during trends. After a trend leg, price often spends some time ranging and consolidating. Such periods often offer great re-entry opportunities if a trader knows what to look for.

The screenshot below shows an uptrend of Tesla. First, it’s important to see that the consolidation happened after a pullback, but it never made a lower low. It even tested the prior highs as support – clue number one.

Prior to the breakout, price started to move up very slowly and eventually broke the moving average. At one time, price gapped and opened below the moving average, but buyers pushed it back up immediately – clue number two.

Momentum picked up before the breakout happened and the RSI started rising again –clue number three. Eventually, the previous high broke in a strong fashion and price kept on making higher highs. The consolidation during the pullback could have been a good time to add to an existing position or to establish a new position.

click to enlarge

Trapped traders              

It is always important to understand where traders will be trapped in losing positions to identify profitable trading opportunities. The screenshot below shows such an example. Price ranged for some time and then suddenly started to move lower. It broke the moving average to the downside and also started to show downside momentum in the RSI. However, at this stage, no actual breakout had occurred and price was still in the range. Traders who anticipated a breakout had entered already, whereas the professionals saw that the range was still intact.

Then the large bullish candle happened and all short positioned traders were trapped. The next candle opened with a breakaway gap beyond the resistance area. At this time, momentum had shifted and the RSI had moved higher.

This example shows that waiting for the actual breakout has to be the #1 priority during a range market. Amateurs try to predict breakouts too often and then get caught in losing positions.

click to enlarge

How to trade breakouts – recap

Knowing how to trade breakout is an important skill in trading because breakouts typically occur at the origin of a new trend. Not knowing how to trade breakouts, though, is what leads to disaster for amateur traders. Here are the most important things to look for in a breakout:

• Waiting for the actual breakout to happen is the most important factor.
• Rising momentum on the breakout is essential
• Previous failed breakouts to the opposite site of the range can tell a lot
• A break of a moving average can be another criteria
• Look for fake breakouts and areas where amateurs are likely to get trapped