Friday, August 28, 2015

Fell from the Top......

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty took resistance near the levels of 8090-8100, traders should avoid going long.

Ideally Nifty should not come below 7960-7950 if this up move has to resume, breaking that would violate the gap up opening today.

Nifty support zones 7960-7950-7920-7880-7850...


Cheers...

Sign of Concern ! ! !

Hi All,

After crossing 7930 level and sustaining above it, markets rallied further by another 100 points. Now there is a big resistance zone from 8060-8230, and markets are likely to face some tension here, so it’s better to be a bit cautious and conservative.

If you have taken positions near the lows of 7770-7800 for this rally then it’s time to book some profits as markets are nearing multiple selling zones of 8060-8090-8165-8200-8230.

However, going short without any confirmation will also be not advisable.


Cheers....

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Bottom Fishing Successful ! ! !

Hi All,

As predicted in the morning post, Nifty witnessed a bounce of almost 100 point today and now thanks to the hourly bullish pattern, we also have same pattern on daily charts (Bullish Hammer), which is usually a reversal pattern, however this time can be lesser impactful due to 2 big gap down openings.

However, for the pattern to be successful, Nifty should sustain above 7930-50 levels tomorrow, then one can expect some more bounce till 7990-8060-8100 levels.


Cheers

Bottom Fishing ! ! !

Hi All,


After a massive sell off for few days Nifty has created a Bullish Pattern on hourly charts and is sustaining above it.

If Nifty sustains above 7800 and closes above it, there is a chance of having a small bounce back; however, the resistances are near 7930-7990-8060....

Since the markets are very volatile, traders are advised to trade with strict SL on both short and long positions...

Please note that this bounce may not be a short term trend reversal and just a relief rally, let the time decide....

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, August 24, 2015

Black Monday ! ! !

Hi All,

As stated in the earlier post, after breaching 8300-8180 Nifty continued its downward journey and reached the targets of 7900-7800....

Now on daily charts it may find a small support near 7700-7750 levels and witness a small bounce after a massive sell off of past 2 days, however, that may not be a start of a fresh up move and Nifty is likely to come down further to the levels of 7500-7400 at least.

Any bounce from now should be taken as a selling opportunity till the time Nifty does not cross 8550-8650 levels.

As per FM’s and RBI Governor’s statement nothing is drastically wrong with Indian economy except a below normal monsoon, which I personally feel is been discounted in the current sell off.

For investors - this is a golden opportunity to procure quality stocks at these levels with an appetite to invest a bit more if Nifty falls below 7500.

Traders are expected to trade cautiously as the IV (Implied Volatility) has shot up by 70-80% in a single day, suggesting markets are going to be extra volatile in coming days, advisable to trade with strict stop losses on either side...


Cheers....

Friday, August 21, 2015

Rising Window Calling....

Hi all,

Please find below a write up on what to talk to customers if they ask for the market crash.

Reasons for market crash
·         Markets crashed more on Global worries, ·         China PMI data comes lowest than 2009, Fed Rate hike looms ·         Around 4-5 Asian markets hitting 52 week lows ·         Greek PM resigns, Korea making war noises ·         Rupee hitting lower lows  

Markets going forward....What to do?

Traders – As stated earlier, markets trading below 8300 is not a good sign, however Nifty may find a support near 8180-8200-8220 range as lot of Technical Indicators like Retracements, Support & Resistances, Chart Patterns, etc are suggesting the same. However, it’s not a good time to take long positions for short term as there are no other confirmation n charts.

8185-8195 is a gap on daily charts so, If 8180 is broken on closing basis them it is almost certain that we are heading towards 8000-7900 again as that will be the target for the Triangle breakdown on Daily charts....


Investors - Best time for Long term investors in stocks and MF

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Markets in bad mood.....

Hi All,

Markets witnessed a heavy sell off today on account of Trade Fire between South and Korea.

Now key levels for short term can be 8300-8350, below these levels further downside can be expected till 8180-8200.

Short term bias remains up till the time 8300 is held and midterm bias is held till the time 7900-7940 levels are intact

Nifty forming a Symmetrical Triangle on daily charts. A close above 8621-8630 or a close below 8300 will decide the further course of action....

Cheers

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

The cockroach theory by Sundar Pichai . ! ! !

A beautiful speech by Sundar Pichai - an IIT-MIT Alumnus and Global Head Google Chrome: The cockroach theory for self development At a restaurant, a cockroach suddenly flew from somewhere and sat on a lady. She started screaming out of fear. With a panic stricken face and trembling voice,she started jumping, with both her hands desperately trying to get rid of the cockroach. Her reaction was contagious, as everyone in her group also got panick The lady finally managed to push the cockroach away but ...it landed on another lady in the group. Now, it was the turn of the other lady in the group to continue the drama. The waiter rushed forward to their rescue. In the relay of throwing, the cockroach next fell upon the waiter. The waiter stood firm, composed himself and observed the behavior of the cockroach on his shirt. When he was confident enough, he grabbed it with his fingers and threw it out of the restaurant. Sipping my coffee and watching the amusement, the antenna of my mind picked up a few thoughts and started wondering, was the cockroach responsible for their histrionic behavior. If so, then why was the waiter not disturbed? He handled it near to perfection, without any chaos. It is not the cockroach, but the inability of the ladies to handle the disturbance caused by the cockroach that disturbed the ladies. I realized that, it is not the shouting of my father or my boss or my wife that disturbs me, but it's my inability to handle the disturbances caused by their shouting that disturbs me. It's not the traffic jams on the road that disturbs me, but my inability to handle the disturbance caused by the traffic jam that disturbs me. More than the problem, it's my reaction to the problem that creates chaos in my life. Lessons learnt from the story: I understood, I should not react in life. I should always respond. The women reacted, whereas the waiter responded. Reactions are always instinctive whereas responses are always well thought of, just and right to save a situation from going out of hands, to avoid cracks in relationship, to avoid taking decisions in anger, anxiety, stress or hurry. A beautiful way to understand............LIFE.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Why Parliament did not function......

Hi all,
A Video worth watching for 9 minutes....

Please don't ignore just because its BJP Video, as some real worst things were discussed in this.

Those who have not seen speeches by Ms. Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley please see the important excerpts of it in this video. Please watch what Arun Jaitly said about Lalit Modi is an eye opener

And if what Kalyan singh said in his book had to be believed, which was read word by word, then really we will think, why did we elected earlier Govt for so long time even after the massacre of Bhopal Gas Tragedy incident, Mr. Anderson was bailed out of India by those politicians then in 1984..

Please watch and be aware...



Thursday, August 13, 2015

In the Independence day week Bulls are dependent a lot on 8321 ! ! !

Hi All,

Owing to domestic and global negative factors Nifty plummeted badly in this Independence day week.

Though a positive weekly close has a remote probability Bulls will still depend a lot on 8320-8300 levels. A close below the same and Nifty is set for another down turn will 8200-8100-7950 levels.

However, personally I feel a lot of negative things are now factored in by now (Like, Yuan devaluation, GST not passing in, Policy Paralysis due to non functioning of both the houses of Parliament, etc.) and still Nifty managed to stay above yesterdays low of 8338 which is a sign of relief.

So If we hold 8320-8300 levels on closing basis a short term bounce can not be ruled out.

Bulls .... last ray of hope.... 8320...

Bears can party if the same is breached on a closing basis.

Cheers

Hrishi

Saturday, August 8, 2015

FNO lot sizes revised...

SEBI revises the market lot and minimum lot value criteria.

Minimum lot value revised to 5 lac. Minimum lot size for stocks reduced to 50 and in multiple of 25 there after.

For high value stocks minimum lot size fixed at 10 and multiple of 5.

Index minimum lot size fixed  at 10 and multiple of 5 there after

At current nifty value of appx 8500. New Nifty index lot will be 60.

Bank nifty will be 30...applicable from
Oct expiry   ..   

http://www.sebi.gov.in/cms/sebi_data/attachdocs/1436782665000.pdf

Friday, August 7, 2015

How to Select a Fundamentally sound company......

Hi All,

Got a nice What's App forward on selecting a small Cap Company.... worth reading

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)
2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages
3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings
4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.
5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run.

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.
2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.
3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  
4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.
5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.
2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.
3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.
4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Cheers Hrishi

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

And the God opens a Dmat Account ! ! !.. Why are you waiting.

Tirupati Trust opens demat account on Balaji's name to enable devotees to donate shares and securities 
HYDERABAD: Balaji, the world's richest god at Tirupati, has now opened a demat account to enable devotees to donate shares and securities, after finding it a tedious task to get physical share certificates dropped in Hundi transferred on his name.

Considered the first globally for a shrine management, Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams (TTD) has opened demat account (1601010000384828) with the Stock Holding Corporation of India.

PS Reddy, MD and CEO of Central Depositories Service (CDSL), told ET that the innovative move by TTD was primarily aimed at addressing the hassles pertaining to transferring the physical share certificates. "TTD has been receiving physical share certificates as donations by devotees in its open Hundi, which indicates that devotees are interested in donating shares.

TTD viewed that enabling devotees to use the demat account for donations helps both." Reddy said though TTD is the first shrine management in the country till date to open a demat account, CDSL would explore similar interest from other temple managements in other parts of the country that were receiving shares as donations.

While acknowledging that the temple has been receiving thousands of share certificates valuing lakhs of rupees, a TTD top official, however, refused to divulge details on the quantum and value of shares received so far. 

Read more at:

Monday, August 3, 2015

A must read for a trader....

One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer studying the market, David's 7 year old daughter came up, tugged at his shirt sleeve, and said, "Daddy, why aren't we rich?"
He looked his child in the eye, and thought to himself, what a great question - why aren't we rich?
As she stood there expectantly waiting for an answer, he struggled to come to grips with the realization that, although he had focused his undivided attention on nothing but creating wealth for more than 15 years, he was still broke.
He had bought and sold hundreds of Stocks and several properties over those years, but had never made any real money to speak of.
He looked at his daughter, and asked, “What makes you think we aren't rich, sweetheart?”
She looked at him sternly and said, “Because you said that if we were rich, you and mom wouldn't have to go to work any more, and you both still work all the time.
You said we could live near the beach and play in the sand every day. I want to know what you are doing about that. When can we go and live at the beach?”
There’s nothing like a child to cut straight to the heart of the problem - and what was he doing about it?
“We're not rich because daddy made some mistakes,” he finally answered.
“What kind of mistakes, daddy?” she asked.
“Well, I bought some shares that were going down and then didn't sell them soon enough. Then I bought some houses but sold them again just before they went up in price.”
“Why did you do that?” she asked.
He had to think long and hard about that. He had no reason to buy shares that were going down in the first place. He had no reason to hold on to them when they kept going down. He had no reason to sell the properties either, come to think of it.
Her logic was flawless – why wasn’t he doing better financially than he was?
He knew in that moment that he had to change his strategy.
He owed it to himself and his family to finally get his act together and make some changes - that was the day the pain of not living up to his potential made him sit down and write out his stock market trading plan...his trading strategy and rules – he had to have a life raft.
He started by writing out his vision - what he wanted his life to look like when he became a successful trader and investor, then worked backwards from there - through the details of how he was going to achieve his dream.
He saw in his mind the 4 bedroom penthouse on the beach, the red Ferrari 360 Modena, the 80 inch plasma screen computer monitor in an office overlooking the surf beach 17 floors below, the family holidays, the million dollar donations to worthwhile causes and children's charities.
He visualized all the tremendous benefits of becoming a successful trader, investor and philanthropist.
He realized that his main problem all this time had been that he was afraid of losing, and that fear was just too expensive to let it control his life any longer! He had been playing not to lose, instead of playing to win.
He decided he would never again sell a property unless there was a compelling reason to do so.
He decided that he would no longer accept anything less than perfect execution of his stock trading plan.
He decided that he would take every trade entry signal his system gave him and follow his trading plan as if his life depended on it.
As if, after each trade was closed out, he had to stand in front of a panel of super traders, and explain his actions to them - why he entered where he did, where he placed his stop losses, why he exited when he did.
And if they weren't convinced he followed the rules of successful trading, he would be taken out and shot!
This certainly focused his attention on only trading strong trends - trends where the price bars were trading above their respective moving averages for long trades, or below for the moving averages for short trades, and the Stock price was moving strongly in one direction.
He pretended that if he couldn't justify his trading decisions to his trading Mentors, he was dead...
That was the day he resolved to study his selected group of Stocks, the ones that had a track record of trending strongly, every day.
He would then take every trade his system produced, put his stop loss orders in the market as he entered each trade it a place where the trend had to change to take him out of the market, and he would hold every position until the trend changed.
He would act 'as if' he was a great trader, even though his record up to that point had been less than inspiring...
That innocent question from a child turned out to be the start of David's successful trading career.
He started to trade profitably and consistently for the first time in his life. He thought he was doing well, and indeed he was making money.
He knew from his wealthy mentors that rich people are different; they make rational decisions based on facts, not emotions.
They understand the value of money - they respect it as a tool for building a better world. They buy well for logical reasons and hold until there is a valid reason to sell.
Then one day, he closed out a trade, and excitedly told his daughter, “Daddy made a big profit in the market today darling, come and look and see what I did.”
His daughter came over to the computer and looked at the screen as he excitedly showed her where he had bought a Stock and then sold for a $13000 profit. She looked at him and said, “But daddy, it's still going up, why did you sell now?”
His smile faded as the power of that question sunk in...why had he sold it?
What was he doing getting out of such a strong trend just to take a profit? What would his trading Mentors say?
She was right...the market was still open, so he bought back in again. He had never been able to bring himself to do that before - he was becoming a great trader!
The rally continued and he kept buying more as it rallied. The trend finally changed, but his profit on that trade, when he eventually got a valid sell signal, was $34500!
His daughter's simple, logical question 5 weeks earlier had been worth over $20000!
That was the last time he ever got out of a trade based on his emotions. His fear of the market was gone - thanks to some simple questions from a 7 year old...
So now, it's your turn.
Whenever you are preparing to place a trade, find a small child, even if you have to borrow one, and ask them what the trend is. Then don't trade the other way!
If your trading isn't as great as you know it could be, decide to create a trading plan now that will become your life raft.
Remember, fear is just too expensive folks.
If you are afraid of losing money, reduce your position size until your fear goes away.
Once you have made a series of small profits, you will be trading with the markets money and you can increase you position size according to your growing confidence and account balance.
If you have a series of losses, reduce your position size again until you get back on the right track. Stick to your trading plan once you have something that works consistently.
Then, just go out and do!!

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Bottomed out?

Hi all,

As mentioned in the earlier post, Nifty took support near 8315-8300 mark and did not those levels any time. Today markets gapped up and trading now near 8440 mark.

Now the next hurdles are near 8450-8493-8515-8530

Can we call this a short term bottom?, well for that Nifty has to surpass the above resistances and sustain convincingly above 8500....

Cheers...

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Bear's Day out...

Hi All,

After a Blood bath on Dalal Street for last couple of days, Nifty now trading near a daily support of 8315-8300.

8300 remains the last hope for bulls. If markets sustains below the same (Sensex corresponding level - 27500) a free fall to 8200-8100 can not be ruled out...

Bulls should pray for a close above 8353 by today for at least a small bounce.

A great opportunity for traders and investors as well to select quality stocks for Long term and trade based on the stock specific trend for short to mid term.

Cheers

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Very Good Video for understanding The Power of Compounding & SIP ! ! !

Hi All,

Please check the video for understanding the Power of compounding and Systematic Investment Plan... SIP.

Explained in a very simple yet very effective manner...



Cheers

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

What goes up....comes down... For going up again....

Hi All,

Markets seems to be taking a breather from the upside journey and currently trading near 8530 mark which is a crucial level for bulls.

Markets should close above 8530-8540 mark for continuing its upward journey till 8600-8650.... 8650 being the crucial hurdle for the bulls in short term.

If closes below 8530 Nifty might go down till 8500-8450-8420-8400...

8400 - 8300 looks like the end of pain for medium term, 8300 on closing basis can be called as a reversal for bullish trend in mid term.

For short term traders any short positions should be with SL above 8650 (spot), bor investors looking at a mid term entry can enter half of the amount now and wait for another half if it comes down till 8400-8420....

Markets are trading near a weekly resistance and hence we may see some down side, but as mentioned earlier, till 8300 is held, there should not be any concern for mid term.

Cheers

Hrishi

Dont understand Equity markets.... Please read!!!!

Hi all....

Lot of friends asked about basics of Stock  investing.... thought this What's App forward will be very good for beginners.....

Must read for non (equity) investors

“As it happens, retail investors are helping markets more by staying out than by investing in equities. So from a purely selfish point of view, we (current equity market participants) do not mind if you stay away from equities. Keep your money in low interest bearing savings accounts and this will help banks raise cheap funds.
Then, while you earn taxable 9% per year in fixed deposits and 4% in savings accounts, we will continue to buy HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank and the like, which are up 3.5 times, 11 times and 5.9 times respectively since December 2008. Also, remember to pay all your EMI instalments on time so that retail loans made by private banks do not get into trouble and we can continue do well owing their stocks.


Indian retail investors are more or less completely out of equities and would rather buy gold instead. So keep buying gold so that we can do better than you by owning stocks in Titan Industries and other jewellery companies. You should not care that at all that while the gold you bought is up 2.8 times in four years, the stock of Titan Industries, which sell gold to you is up 6.9 times during the same period. If Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had bought physical gold instead of shares in Titan when he did, he would not be a billionaire today.


In fact, go ahead and buy real estate, taking mortgages from HDFC and LIC Housing Finance. How else we would have made 2.8 times and 5.7 times in these stocks in five years?

And when you do buy these apartment and houses, do insist on using the best construction material- cement, sanitary ware and so on. It is only because you do not buy equities and spend on real things that we could make 192% on ACC and 4.5 times on Hindustan Sanitary ware since 2008. A house is not done until it’s painted, so remember to keep a budget for decorative paints from Asian Paints (stock is up 4.8 times in four years)

Why should you invest in equities when you can buy insurance products? This world is interesting precisely because we think differently from each other- while you are happy buying insurance, we are happy owning shares in companies that sell you insurance. Thanks to you, shares in Bajaj Finserve are up 6 times in value and shares in Max India are up 2 times in the past four years.
Follow your heart and we will follow you.
If you like going to malls and spending time there, please do some shopping as well- some of us own shares in Phoenix Mills which is up 2.7 times since 2008. In fact, it may be times for you to upgrade your car.

Why buy equities when you can spend the same money on a new car or motorcycle? Let us do the more boring job of continuing to own stocks in Maruti and Bajaj Auto which are up 2.9 and 10.8 times respectively since 2008. Why not add your name to the waiting list for an Enfield this year while we own shares in its manufacturers, Eicher Motors which is up 12 times since 2008?
Life isn’t just about making and investing money; it’s important to enjoy life’s little pleasures.

So go and watch a movie at the multiplex and munch some popcorn while you’re there. Meanwhile, we’ll buy shares in PVR (up 3 times in 4 years).


You’d rather spend time in front of the telly? We’ll still love you- shares in Zee Telefilms and Sun are up 3 and 3.5 times because of loyal viewers such as you.

Call for Pizza delivery at home. Jubliant Foodworks, which owns Domino’s, is up 5.4 times since its IPO in 2010.

When you’re in mood to be sinfully self-indulgent, don’t make any resolutions to give up smoking or drinking. You may not want to invest in equities but spare a thought for investors in these stocks. Your actions so far have helped these investors make 3.8 times in ITC, 10.3 times in United Breweries and 2.2 times in United Spirits in 4 years but they still look for your continued patronage of these businesses.

We wish you a very happy and healthy 2015. If, God forbid, you have to visit a hospital, remember that as stake holders in Apollo Hospitals (stock up 3.8 times) we will be thanking you from the bottom of our collective  hearts.

And if you do fall sick in 2015, take comfort in the fact that you are helping investors in stock of companies such as Dr.Reddy’s (stock up 4 times) and Cipla (stock up 2.3 times).

We invite you over to our side in 2015 but still love you for choosing instead to be loyal customers of the businesses we own. Now it’s up to you to decide who you would rather be – part owners of Indian companies or just their loyal customers.”

Take it just forward so that some of our compatriots, who still take comforts in traditional bank deposits can start doing some asset allocation and raise the standard of living of self and their families.


Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Bulls party, bears watchful!!!

Hi all,

As expected after the blood bath on 8th July after Greece debacle, Nifty gained bullish momentum slowly.

Now Nifty in resistance Zone of 8480-8530, which is a crucial test for Nifty

If Nifty manages to surpass 8520-8530-8560 with heavy volumes then Nifty can rally further even till 8800.
Cheers...

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Kuch corrections achhe hote hai!!!!

Hi All,

Nifty is witnessing a Blood Bath right now and is down by more than 160 points (i.e. 2%). However the over all trend for short term will still remain positive until 8180 level is not broken, and till such time I personally feel that every dip is a buying opportunity...

Earlier this week, markets surpassed a crucial levels of 8510, though with not so surprising volumes,  but if able to hold on to 8200-8150 mark, Nifty can see a bounce and then higher levels of 8650-8800 in short to mid term. however a low volume breakout of crucial resistance of 8510 still remains a crucial hurdle going forward, which means the next up move should be with heavier volumes than the recent volumes....

Traders are advised to trade cautiously with STRICT stop losses for intraday or delivery trades as markets may witness higher volatility going forward, the IV is already up today by 11% @ 18.12%

Cheers

Hrishi

Monday, June 29, 2015

Window closed!!!!

Hi all,

Due to weak cues from global markets, Nifty had gaped down drastically in the opening trades today, thanks to the Bearish Engulf Pattern, discussed in a post of last week, Nifty bounced back from yet another Candlestick Pattern support called Rising Window..... the support area was 8180-8200......

A rising window getting closed by a strong candle, like today is surely an even to cheer for bulls, however resistances near 8400-8430 are likely prevail.

On the lower side 8180-8150 now becomes a crucial level and breaking of it can take Nifty even  lower because that will be like a Lower Bottom on daily charts which is negative sign as per Dow Theory...

Cheers!!!

Greece Crisis Explained!!!!

Hi All,

Nice link explaining the Greece Crisis and also elaborated view on European Crisis as a whole... Worth watching.....


Regards

Hrishi

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Hopes still alive....

Hi all,

As discussed yesterday, Nifty did support exactly near the 8330 level mentioned yesterday, and sharply bounced back from there to create a new higher mark at 8423...

Which means hopes for bulls are still alive as Nifty also closed higher today on daily charts which is a good sign as per Dow Theory.... A close below 8360 can be a sign of worry for bulls...

After surpassing 8450-8470 & 8510 levels convincingly, Nifty can travel higher till 8650-8800

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Caution - Slippery road ahead....!!!

Hi All,

After rallying for 8 consecutive sessions, Nifty closed the day in red ahead of FNO expiry today.

Now, on the daily charts we have a bearish Engulfing Candle which is a sign of concerns for bulls.

With global uncertainty over Greece issues, a level to watch out for bulls will be 8330,  below which 8250 can be very certain, 8300-8250 will act as short term reversal for the immediate up trend.

Tomorrow, on account of expiry markets are certainly going to be very volatile, hence traders are advised to trade with lot of caution....

The upside resistances are same near 8470-8510.... on surpassing that Nifty can head towards the journey till 8650-8800....

It's surely a Pray time for Bulls, Nifty should not break key supports, because as mentioned earlier, support of 8000-7950 has become weak now and may not be able to stop the fall in Nifty if any....

Fingers crossed.....

Cheers

Hrishi

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

On a lighter note.... Another passion other than markets....!!!!

Hi All,
On a relaxing note, other than market one other passion which many of have is cricket, and off late a lot is been happening on that front, following is a nice article found on crictracker, putting it here as it is also what I think about MSD
(http://www.crictracker.com/an-open-letter-to-ms-dhoni-from-a-cricket-fan/)

An Open Letter to MS Dhoni from a Cricket Fan:

Dear Mahendra Singh Dhoni, 

Some say you had the share of luck which made you a successful captain, while some say you are just a cricketing freak, a few also feel that you have the tendency to pick your favourite players in the squad and benching the rest. Lastly, some of the so-called ‘fans’ even say that you are the cause of India’s dreadful performances in the foreign soils.

Well, to say the least, I do not fall under the niche of such plastic fans. Undoubtedly, the name MS Dhoni, the small-town boy rising to be one of the prominent leaders of Indian Cricket is no freak and I do admire you for your gigantic fruitful contributions for the Indian team which made us prouder as a Cricketing nation. So, as a token of gratitude, I would like to portray your prosperous stature thereby falsifying such inglorious comments.
At a time, when the Indian team lacked a genuine wicket keeping batsman, Dravid had to fulfill the job for the wicket keeper of the team. But it was MS Dhoni who revolutionized the stature of being a wicket keeper in the Indian team. In the initial days of your career, you simply defined aggression and pointed out the fact how brute-force while batting with apt hand-eye co-ordination can bring galore of boundaries without involving much of a feet movement. In fact, your innings of 183 runs off 145 deliveries with 15 fours and 10 sixes against Sri Lanka in 2005 was enough to define your class as a batsman. In fact, a player with 8551 ODI runs at an average of over 52 by himself, speaks of the genuine class.
There was a time in 2007, post to the Natwest series in England, when Dravid resigned as the captain of the team, the fate of the Indian Cricket team looked to be in a state of jeopardy. It was you who shouldered the team and led right from the front as an example. In 2007 T20 World Cup, next to the woeful performance by the Indian side in the ICC World Cup earlier that year, none in the team went forward to take the responsibility to lead the squad. But there was one man, who led the team to a majestic triumphant march for the ICC World T20. It was you. Such incredible decisions in the ICC World T20 did reflect the potential in you to lead the country to further glories.
And after the ODI captaincy was vested upon your shoulders, you shone to take the team to an emphatic CB Series win in 2008 in Australia. Indian team achieved distinct levels of success under your leadership and were crowned as the number one test team in 2009. Obviously, the team did not become number one solely under Dhoni’s captaincy. But it is a fact that Dhoni carried on with the baton quite brilliantly to take India to that stature.
A lot has been talked about the retention of your favourite players. What some people fail to believe that you have immense faith upon your players. There was a time back in 2009-10 when Virat Kohli was repeatedly included in the playing XI despite his poor form and we all know how mature a batsman he has become now. Hadn’t he got those chances, he would not have been able to become the batsman he is now.
Owing to Yuvraj Singh’s poor form, the selectors opted to drop him from the World Cup squad in 2011 but you stood by Yuvraj’s side and included him and the rest is history. There was a time when Rohit Sharma’s place in the team was thoroughly criticized but just like a shielding branch, you gave him chances, even promoted him to open the batting and it paid off, the guy now has two double centuries in ODIs.
Also, you did show the respect you have for the seniors on a number of times. For instance, you asking Sourav to captain the side in his farewell test for 30 minutes or so on the final day. You did rely upon Sachin, Dravid, Laxman when India were having tough times. Still, due to lack of adequate pace bowlers and the lack of form of many of the players, India lost quite a number of matches overseas. But on that note, it got to be mentioned that India did win the Champions Trophy in 2013 on the English soils at circumstances when the cricketing sphere of the country was clouded by the stains of spot fixing scandals.
From being a fearless, hard-hitting batsman, you changed your nature as a batsman and sacrificed your pinch-hitting instincts in order to cope up with the role of a dependable batsman for the sake of the team. It was you who defended the penultimate ball of the last over in the semi final of ICC World T20, 2014 against South Africa just to ensure that Virat Kohli strikes the winning shot. It was under your leadership that India, after performing rather poorly against Australia prior to 2015 World Cup, went on to win 7 matches on a trot in the tournament. And statistically too, you stand to be the only Indian captain with over 100 wins in ODIs, the next best captain after Ricky Ponting with 11 consecutive wins in World Cup matches.
Haters will find many reasons to criticize but judging by the logical aspects of the game, your contributions to the Indian team is priceless to be brief. You held the baton and kept the team on the track when the team was through an era of change with players like Sachin, Dravid, Sourav, Laxman and Kumble retiring from international cricket. It would be somewhat foolish to describe your passion for the game. You preferred your national duty to personal issues and did not even see your daughter for over two months after she was born. That is the respect you have for your team and profession.
You are a role model for thousands of small-town youngsters who dream big. You stand to be a reality check for them that dreams do come true. From being a Railway ticket inspector, you emerged to be one of the most successful Indian captains. Very few people in the World possess such knowledgeable cricketing brains and you are a hard core cricketing mind packed with sheer coolness.
India would not have been the same cricketing nation if you were not there. Cricket hasn’t seen such a selfless leader as you who dedicates victories as team efforts and takes the entire blames on himself in case of failures. You deserve thorough respect from the billion fans, whom have had a thousand reasons to smile just because you picked cricket over all other priorities of your life.
Thank You MS, now words are enough to express your contribution but, I want to Thank you right from the bottom of my heart for everything that you have, silently and selflessly done for Indian cricket.
Yours sincerely,
A Cricket Fan.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Market update - Time to rejoice

Hi all,

As expected Nifty, after convincingly surpassing 8125-8130 to 8190 level traveled swiftly till 8300 now....

Those who have taken long positions near 8070-8100 can boo part profits now and trail SL near 8180

On the higher side now a remarkable hurdle is near 8470-8510, before that 8300-8320 needs to cross and then 8400 can be a psychological resistance.... A close above 8316-8320 can see Nifty rise continuing further

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, June 18, 2015

The Eliminator... Market update...


Hi All,

After reacting to the 8000-7950 levels, Markets faced resistance near a crucial level of 8130-8170-75.

After yesterday’s key announcement by FED, there are no fresh triggers in markets hence it is expected to trade very cautiously with resistances being near 8160-8175-8200.

Short term bias which changed near the bottom of 8k, will continue to flourish if Nifty surpasses 8160-75, and on a successful breakout of 8200 one can think of midterm targets of 8500-8800

On the lower side however, 8040-8000-7940 are key supports a break of which can take Nifty to 7800-7700-7500, which may be called as a correction bottom for the entire up move.

Bulls and bears are really fighting it hard for past few weeks now and therefore its a wait n watch scenario to check who eliminates the other....

Cheers

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

FED Reserve Rate Announced

Hi All,

FED leaves rates unchanged....

Downgrade 2015 GDP Outlook

There could be rate hike in September...may be 2 rate hikes in 2015

Nasdaq 1%up from the bottom but leaves the positive territory... Negative again

Sgx down 21

Looks like yesterday n today markets discounted the FED Status quo.

Maekets sharply reacted at a crucial level of 8130-60 as posted yesterday and closed below 8100. Tomorrow very crucial... and 7940 will be do or die for bulls

Detailed Note....

US Fed: Voted 10-0 For Fed Funds Rate Action

U.S. FED  : Economy expanding 'moderately,'  job growth picked up

Fed leaves rate unchanged

U.S. growth is really weak but surely it will rebound so we’re going to try to hike rates this year anyway. Yellen.

FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR

Initial reaction after FED >>> Market turned higher in US, Gold / Silver rally.

Fed sees inflation below 2% target for foreseeable future – but still holds onto idea that it will ‘gradually’ return to target
Fed leaves rate unchanged . Upgrades economic improvement outlook. Fed offers No explicit wordings on liftoff timing. Downgrades 2015 GDP outlook.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Bottom Fishing....

Hi All,

Markets were very uncertain for past couple of days but with the list of mixed cues they did not break crucial supports near 7940.....

Currently Nifty trades at 8047 and looks like if 8162-8200 is taken out nifty should not have any hurdle before 8500 at least.

As per simple Down theory, Nifty should close convincingly above 8125-30 mark to start its journey to higher levels of 8200-8500...

Lets wait and watch, a low risk high reward  (however a moderate level of probability) trading opportunity...

Cheers

Hrishi


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Morning Star on Daily.....

Hi All,

Personal View -

As posted earlier, markets took support near 8k mark and have seen a sharp bounce. Now 8200 holds the key for further upside. Above 8200, 8510 will be the next mid term support and above that it looks very certain that 8000 might not be broken.

Technical observation on Nifty on on daily charts has made a Morning Star pattern which is supposed to be very bullish and which earlier had caused a rally from 8000 to 8500 levels in last month... However today's high of 8150-8160 should be take out and sustained for the upward moment to continue....

Cheers....


Market update - Flirting with 8k

Hi All,

As expected market again took support near 8k mark and has witnessed yet another sharp bounce of around 100 points, however the support has now become very week and if Nifty again is retraced to the levels of 8k the chances of it being broken are higher.

On the upside, 8135-8200 are key resistance areas where a new selling can emerge, however if Nifty manages to surpass and importantly sustain these levels the doors for further upside are wide open.

Since markets are trading with huge volatility. its advisable to stay cautious and trade with strict SL for any trade long / short.

My personal view is any sizable upside only visible if 8200 is taken out convincingly. and on the lower side triggering 8k-7950 mark can be a panic button for all the bulls currently long in markets

Cheers

Friday, June 5, 2015

Bulls are back

Hi All,

As per earlier post, Nifty surpassed yesterday's high of 8160 and is trading above it that too after witnessing a sharp sell off in the morning.

Looks like Bulls are back at least for near term with SL below 8050..... Final levels to watch are still pegged at 8000-7950.....

Thanks to the daily hammer, still for confirmation today and Monday should trade and preferably close above 8160....

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Hammer!!!

Hi All,

Finally seems like there is small respite for the bulls. Nifty managed to closed and create a Hammer (Bullish Candlestick pattern) on daily charts so now tomorrow it is advisable that it goes above 8161-8165 levels and sustains above it, closing above that mark will really fancy the chances of Nifty getting near 8200-8400....

Cheers


Market Update....

Hi all,

After RBI's 25 bps rate cut failed to cheer the markets, the picture looks very gloomy now as even the forecast for monsoons are not encouraging.

Still the bias remains cautiously up with strong support near 8080-8000-7950.... Below 8089-80 the daily charts will have a lower bottom formation which is surely not a good sign for bulls. And finally 8000-7950 are the KEY areas to watch out for if we want to have any upward rally in near future....

Cheers

Monday, June 1, 2015

El Nino.... A nice article Impact Of El Nino Induced Monsoon On The Indian Economy

Hi All,

Just came across a nice article on El Nino Effect....

Worth reading....

Of late, the recent forecast of low rainfall during the monsoon is a concern for many. The onus of this goes to El Nino acronym of El Nino Southern Oscillation that a country experiences in a cycle of three to seven years. It occurs when there is an interaction between the warm water of Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. This causes different weather events ranging from floods to droughts across the gold. El Nino meant The Little Boy and was first recognized in the coastal areas of South America during the seventeenth century. Monsoon in India influences Australia and different regions in South East Asia. It impacts the economy of the country and that of neighboring countries.

GibbonIOD_2
[Image Source : Indian Express ]
Effect on agriculture
This prediction has also raised eyebrows of farmers and economists alike. The agricultural sector of the country is likely to suffer from crop damage and unseasonal rain due to this phenomenon. In the country, agriculture depends on monsoon largely due to the requirement of water. As consequences of El Nino, there will be sparse rainfall, and it will impact the agriculture. Owing to this, there will be a rise in food prices and inflation. The ace banking authority in the country has stated in the first installment of monetary policy the chances of inflation.
Rise in food price
As per the bi-monthly policy, if there is less rainfall than the normal level then there will be fluctuation in the price of fruits and vegetables in comparison to regular patterns. It is expected that this will have an impact on the overall economy of the country. A noted international investment bank has warned officials of the country against the rise in food price due to El Nino. Few researchers of noted universities have predicted the country will face the adverse effect of El Nino. The absence of large reservoirs that is effective in moderating impact of drought on the supply of food will add to the adversity.
Consequences faced last time
Going by the historical data, last years the rainfall was lower than what the meteorological department forecasted. As a result, there was a steep rise in the process of potatoes, onions and fruits. Last time the country faced El Nino, it resulted in drought and a steep rise in the price of food items. Agriculture contributes to almost fourteen percent of the Indian economy. Any adverse weather condition leads to a low growth of GDP and causes inflation. El Nino seems to impact the economy of the country directly. It will reduce the production of sugarcane, rice, cotton, oilseeds and corn to name a few and increases the price of crops in the domestic market.
Mitigation of this effect
Now, the only sigh of relief is a working paper by the ace international monetary organization. It will help to dispel fear and anguish related to the impact of El Nino on the Indian economy. As per the report, in last one decade, there has been a reduction in the contribution of agriculture to gross domestic product, and this will mitigate the adverse effect of El Nino on the economy. There has also been an expansion in total agricultural land, and this helps in lowering its impact on the economy.
Link - http://www.marketcalls.in/economy/impact-of-el-nino-induced-monsoon-on-the-indian-economy.html?utm_content=buffercfcf0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Cheers

Hrishi

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Nifty bounced back from the neckline....

Hi all,

As per my post couple of days back, Nifty exactly took support near 8270 and gave a mild bounce back. The bounce should continue hereafter and go markets should go further up above 8330-8370 levels t call it a as a meaningful bottom....

Cheers

Power to PTC!!!!

Hi all,

Just a rare stock observation.....

PTC... CMP 67.30

The stock is creating an Inverted HNS pattern on hourly charts.... One can enter long above 67.6 with SL below 64.5... Targets 70.2-73

Cheers

Hrishi

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

What to expext in one year from Govt.

Came across A good piece from wsj article today (A forwarded msg)

"Neelkanth Mishra, a Credit Suisse strategist, said his client presentations now include a map of India with each state labeled with the name of the country whose population is most similar. Maharashtra state’s population of 110 million makes it the size of Mexico. Uttar Pradesh, with 200 million people, is like Brazil.

“For one person sitting in Delhi to change Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Germany, France, Turkey and Canada in six months or one year is, I think, a completely irrational expectation,” Mr. Mishra said."

Cheers

Market update - Nifty touching the neckline....

Hi all,

as per my earlier updates Nifty had created an inverted  HNS pattern (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.in/2015/05/inverted-hns-beakout-bulls-are-back.html) on daily charts, which is a bullish sign. As mentioned in that markets have now corrected a bit and are trading near the neckline of the pattern near 8270-8250...

This offers a nice buying opportunity with very small risk....

The short term bias will continue to remain positive till the time markets are above 8080-8100 levels, for midterm bias 8000-7950 are crucial levels to watch out for

Please find below the chart for the event...


Regards

Hrishi

My dear fellow citizens.....PM's letter to citizens on completion of 1 year of Govt

My dear fellow citizens!

Service, in our Indian ethos is the ultimate duty – Seva Parmo Dharma. One year ago, you had entrusted me with the responsibility and honour of serving you as your . I have devoted every moment of every day, and every element of my body and spirit, in fulfilling the same with fullest sincerity and honesty.

We assumed office at a time when confidence in the India story was waning. Un-abated corruption and indecisiveness had paralyzed the government. People had been left helpless against ever climbing inflation and economic insecurity. Urgent and decisive action was needed.

We systematically went about addressing these challenges. Runaway prices were immediately brought under control. The languishing economy was rejuvenated, building on stable, policy-driven proactive governance. Discretionary allotment of our precious natural resources to a chosen few was replaced with transparent auctions. Firm steps were taken against Black Money, from setting up a SIT and passing a stringent black money law, to generating international consensus against the same. Uncompromising adherence to the principle of purity, in action as well as intent, ensured a corruption-free government. Significant changes have been brought about in work culture, nurturing a combination of empathy as well as professionalism, systems as well breaking of silos. State governments have been made equal partners in the quest for national development, building the spirit of Team India. Most importantly, we have been able to restore Trust in the government.

Guided by the principle of Antyodaya, our Government is dedicated to the poor, marginalized and those left behind. We are working towards empowering them to become our soldiers in the war against poverty. Numerous measures and schemes have been initiated – from making school toilets to setting up IITs, IIMs and AIIMS; from providing a vaccination cover to our children to initiating a people-driven Swachh Bharat mission; from ensuring a minimum pension to our labourers to providing social security to the common man; from enhancing support to our farmers hit by natural calamities to defending their interests at WTO; from empowering one and all with self attestation to delivering subsidies directly to people’s banks; from universalizing the banking system to funding the unfunded small businesses; from irrigating fields to rejuvenating Ma Ganga; from moving towards 24x7 power to connecting the nation through road and rail; from building homes for the homeless to setting up smart cities, and from connecting the North-East to prioritizing development of Eastern India.

Friends, this is just the beginning. Our objective is to transform quality of life, infrastructure and services. Together we shall build the India of your dreams and that of our freedom fighters. In this, I seek your blessings and continued support.

Always in your Service,
Jai Hind!

Read & Listen to PM's message to the nation in the language of your choice

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Home Loan your biggest worry? Then Do this.....

Hi,

Got a nice forward on Home Loan Vs SIP.....

Really looks good..... Advisable, even at a market CAGR of anything more than 15-16% will be a profitable affair...

Regards....

Indian funds have beaten Warren Buffett in returns...

Hi All,

Came across a nice article on Indian MF industry, it's an interview of Mr. Nilesh Shah , MD Kotak Mahindra AMC by Economic times...

Indian investors are still in reverse track, Nilesh Shah tells ET Wealth. The good news is a more mature set of investors has entered the market in recent years.

A recent report says most actively managed mutual funds underperformed their benchmarks in the past five years. What are your observations?

Nilesh Shah: There's a saying that if you torture data enough, it will confess to everything. The SPIVA report is nothing but torturin .. 

#NaMo Innovative way of preparing your own Report Card....!!!

Hi All,

Came across a link about the One Year Progress by NaMo Govt. worth going through...

http://www.narendramodi.in/oneyear

Regards