On a lighter note.... Another passion other than markets....!!!!

Hi All,

On a relaxing note, other than market one other passion which many of have is cricket, and off late a lot is been happening on that front, following is a nice article found on crictracker, putting it here as it is also what I think about MSD

(http://www.crictracker.com/an-open-letter-to-ms-dhoni-from-a-cricket-fan/)

An Open Letter to MS Dhoni from a Cricket Fan:

Dear Mahendra Singh Dhoni, 

Some say you had the share of luck which made you a successful captain, while some say you are just a cricketing freak, a few also feel that you have the tendency to pick your favourite players in the squad and benching the rest. Lastly, some of the so-called ‘fans’ even say that you are the cause of India’s dreadful performances in the foreign soils.

Well, to say the least, I do not fall under the niche of such plastic fans. Undoubtedly, the name MS Dhoni, the small-town boy rising to be one of the prominent leaders of Indian Cricket is no freak and I do admire you for your gigantic fruitful contributions for the Indian team which made us prouder as a Cricketing nation. So, as a token of gratitude, I would like to portray your prosperous stature thereby falsifying such inglorious comments.

At a time, when the Indian team lacked a genuine wicket keeping batsman, Dravid had to fulfill the job for the wicket keeper of the team. But it was MS Dhoni who revolutionized the stature of being a wicket keeper in the Indian team. In the initial days of your career, you simply defined aggression and pointed out the fact how brute-force while batting with apt hand-eye co-ordination can bring galore of boundaries without involving much of a feet movement. In fact, your innings of 183 runs off 145 deliveries with 15 fours and 10 sixes against Sri Lanka in 2005 was enough to define your class as a batsman. In fact, a player with 8551 ODI runs at an average of over 52 by himself, speaks of the genuine class.

There was a time in 2007, post to the Natwest series in England, when Dravid resigned as the captain of the team, the fate of the Indian Cricket team looked to be in a state of jeopardy. It was you who shouldered the team and led right from the front as an example. In 2007 T20 World Cup, next to the woeful performance by the Indian side in the ICC World Cup earlier that year, none in the team went forward to take the responsibility to lead the squad. But there was one man, who led the team to a majestic triumphant march for the ICC World T20. It was you. Such incredible decisions in the ICC World T20 did reflect the potential in you to lead the country to further glories.

And after the ODI captaincy was vested upon your shoulders, you shone to take the team to an emphatic CB Series win in 2008 in Australia. Indian team achieved distinct levels of success under your leadership and were crowned as the number one test team in 2009. Obviously, the team did not become number one solely under Dhoni’s captaincy. But it is a fact that Dhoni carried on with the baton quite brilliantly to take India to that stature.

A lot has been talked about the retention of your favourite players. What some people fail to believe that you have immense faith upon your players. There was a time back in 2009-10 when Virat Kohli was repeatedly included in the playing XI despite his poor form and we all know how mature a batsman he has become now. Hadn’t he got those chances, he would not have been able to become the batsman he is now.

Owing to Yuvraj Singh’s poor form, the selectors opted to drop him from the World Cup squad in 2011 but you stood by Yuvraj’s side and included him and the rest is history. There was a time when Rohit Sharma’s place in the team was thoroughly criticized but just like a shielding branch, you gave him chances, even promoted him to open the batting and it paid off, the guy now has two double centuries in ODIs.

Also, you did show the respect you have for the seniors on a number of times. For instance, you asking Sourav to captain the side in his farewell test for 30 minutes or so on the final day. You did rely upon Sachin, Dravid, Laxman when India were having tough times. Still, due to lack of adequate pace bowlers and the lack of form of many of the players, India lost quite a number of matches overseas. But on that note, it got to be mentioned that India did win the Champions Trophy in 2013 on the English soils at circumstances when the cricketing sphere of the country was clouded by the stains of spot fixing scandals.

From being a fearless, hard-hitting batsman, you changed your nature as a batsman and sacrificed your pinch-hitting instincts in order to cope up with the role of a dependable batsman for the sake of the team. It was you who defended the penultimate ball of the last over in the semi final of ICC World T20, 2014 against South Africa just to ensure that Virat Kohli strikes the winning shot. It was under your leadership that India, after performing rather poorly against Australia prior to 2015 World Cup, went on to win 7 matches on a trot in the tournament. And statistically too, you stand to be the only Indian captain with over 100 wins in ODIs, the next best captain after Ricky Ponting with 11 consecutive wins in World Cup matches.

Haters will find many reasons to criticize but judging by the logical aspects of the game, your contributions to the Indian team is priceless to be brief. You held the baton and kept the team on the track when the team was through an era of change with players like Sachin, Dravid, Sourav, Laxman and Kumble retiring from international cricket. It would be somewhat foolish to describe your passion for the game. You preferred your national duty to personal issues and did not even see your daughter for over two months after she was born. That is the respect you have for your team and profession.

You are a role model for thousands of small-town youngsters who dream big. You stand to be a reality check for them that dreams do come true. From being a Railway ticket inspector, you emerged to be one of the most successful Indian captains. Very few people in the World possess such knowledgeable cricketing brains and you are a hard core cricketing mind packed with sheer coolness.

India would not have been the same cricketing nation if you were not there. Cricket hasn’t seen such a selfless leader as you who dedicates victories as team efforts and takes the entire blames on himself in case of failures. You deserve thorough respect from the billion fans, whom have had a thousand reasons to smile just because you picked cricket over all other priorities of your life.

Thank You MS, now words are enough to express your contribution but, I want to Thank you right from the bottom of my heart for everything that you have, silently and selflessly done for Indian cricket.

Yours sincerely,

A Cricket Fan.

Market update - Time to rejoice

Hi all,

As expected Nifty, after convincingly surpassing 8125-8130 to 8190 level traveled swiftly till 8300 now....

Those who have taken long positions near 8070-8100 can boo part profits now and trail SL near 8180

On the higher side now a remarkable hurdle is near 8470-8510, before that 8300-8320 needs to cross and then 8400 can be a psychological resistance.... A close above 8316-8320 can see Nifty rise continuing further

Cheers

Hrishi

The Eliminator... Market update...

Hi All,

After reacting to the 8000-7950 levels, Markets faced resistance near a crucial level of 8130-8170-75.

After yesterday’s key announcement by FED, there are no fresh triggers in markets hence it is expected to trade very cautiously with resistances being near 8160-8175-8200.

Short term bias which changed near the bottom of 8k, will continue to flourish if Nifty surpasses 8160-75, and on a successful breakout of 8200 one can think of midterm targets of 8500-8800

On the lower side however, 8040-8000-7940 are key supports a break of which can take Nifty to 7800-7700-7500, which may be called as a correction bottom for the entire up move.

Bulls and bears are really fighting it hard for past few weeks now and therefore its a wait n watch scenario to check who eliminates the other....

Cheers

FED Reserve Rate Announced

Hi All,

FED leaves rates unchanged....

Downgrade 2015 GDP Outlook

There could be rate hike in September...may be 2 rate hikes in 2015

Nasdaq 1%up from the bottom but leaves the positive territory... Negative again

Sgx down 21

Looks like yesterday n today markets discounted the FED Status quo.

Maekets sharply reacted at a crucial level of 8130-60 as posted yesterday and closed below 8100. Tomorrow very crucial... and 7940 will be do or die for bulls

Detailed Note....

US Fed: Voted 10-0 For Fed Funds Rate Action

U.S. FED  : Economy expanding 'moderately,'  job growth picked up

Fed leaves rate unchanged

U.S. growth is really weak but surely it will rebound so we’re going to try to hike rates this year anyway. Yellen.

FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR

Initial reaction after FED >>> Market turned higher in US, Gold / Silver rally.

Fed sees inflation below 2% target for foreseeable future – but still holds onto idea that it will ‘gradually’ return to target
Fed leaves rate unchanged . Upgrades economic improvement outlook. Fed offers No explicit wordings on liftoff timing. Downgrades 2015 GDP outlook.

Bottom Fishing....

Hi All,

Markets were very uncertain for past couple of days but with the list of mixed cues they did not break crucial supports near 7940.....

Currently Nifty trades at 8047 and looks like if 8162-8200 is taken out nifty should not have any hurdle before 8500 at least.

As per simple Down theory, Nifty should close convincingly above 8125-30 mark to start its journey to higher levels of 8200-8500...

Lets wait and watch, a low risk high reward  (however a moderate level of probability) trading opportunity...

Cheers

Hrishi

Morning Star on Daily.....

Hi All,

Personal View -

As posted earlier, markets took support near 8k mark and have seen a sharp bounce. Now 8200 holds the key for further upside. Above 8200, 8510 will be the next mid term support and above that it looks very certain that 8000 might not be broken.

Technical observation on Nifty on on daily charts has made a Morning Star pattern which is supposed to be very bullish and which earlier had caused a rally from 8000 to 8500 levels in last month... However today's high of 8150-8160 should be take out and sustained for the upward moment to continue....

Cheers....

Market update - Flirting with 8k

Hi All,

As expected market again took support near 8k mark and has witnessed yet another sharp bounce of around 100 points, however the support has now become very week and if Nifty again is retraced to the levels of 8k the chances of it being broken are higher.

On the upside, 8135-8200 are key resistance areas where a new selling can emerge, however if Nifty manages to surpass and importantly sustain these levels the doors for further upside are wide open.

Since markets are trading with huge volatility. its advisable to stay cautious and trade with strict SL for any trade long / short.

My personal view is any sizable upside only visible if 8200 is taken out convincingly. and on the lower side triggering 8k-7950 mark can be a panic button for all the bulls currently long in markets

Cheers

Bulls are back

Hi All,

As per earlier post, Nifty surpassed yesterday's high of 8160 and is trading above it that too after witnessing a sharp sell off in the morning.

Looks like Bulls are back at least for near term with SL below 8050..... Final levels to watch are still pegged at 8000-7950.....

Thanks to the daily hammer, still for confirmation today and Monday should trade and preferably close above 8160....

Cheers

Hrishi

Hammer!!!

Hi All,

Finally seems like there is small respite for the bulls. Nifty managed to closed and create a Hammer (Bullish Candlestick pattern) on daily charts so now tomorrow it is advisable that it goes above 8161-8165 levels and sustains above it, closing above that mark will really fancy the chances of Nifty getting near 8200-8400....

Cheers

Market Update....

Hi all,

After RBI's 25 bps rate cut failed to cheer the markets, the picture looks very gloomy now as even the forecast for monsoons are not encouraging.

Still the bias remains cautiously up with strong support near 8080-8000-7950.... Below 8089-80 the daily charts will have a lower bottom formation which is surely not a good sign for bulls. And finally 8000-7950 are the KEY areas to watch out for if we want to have any upward rally in near future....

Cheers

El Nino.... A nice article Impact Of El Nino Induced Monsoon On The Indian Economy

Hi All,

Just came across a nice article on El Nino Effect....

Worth reading....

Of late, the recent forecast of low rainfall during the monsoon is a concern for many. The onus of this goes to El Nino acronym of El Nino Southern Oscillation that a country experiences in a cycle of three to seven years. It occurs when there is an interaction between the warm water of Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. This causes different weather events ranging from floods to droughts across the gold. El Nino meant The Little Boy and was first recognized in the coastal areas of South America during the seventeenth century. Monsoon in India influences Australia and different regions in South East Asia. It impacts the economy of the country and that of neighboring countries.

[Image Source : Indian Express ]

Effect on agriculture

This prediction has also raised eyebrows of farmers and economists alike. The agricultural sector of the country is likely to suffer from crop damage and unseasonal rain due to this phenomenon. In the country, agriculture depends on monsoon largely due to the requirement of water. As consequences of El Nino, there will be sparse rainfall, and it will impact the agriculture. Owing to this, there will be a rise in food prices and inflation. The ace banking authority in the country has stated in the first installment of monetary policy the chances of inflation.

Rise in food price

As per the bi-monthly policy, if there is less rainfall than the normal level then there will be fluctuation in the price of fruits and vegetables in comparison to regular patterns. It is expected that this will have an impact on the overall economy of the country. A noted international investment bank has warned officials of the country against the rise in food price due to El Nino. Few researchers of noted universities have predicted the country will face the adverse effect of El Nino. The absence of large reservoirs that is effective in moderating impact of drought on the supply of food will add to the adversity.

Consequences faced last time

Going by the historical data, last years the rainfall was lower than what the meteorological department forecasted. As a result, there was a steep rise in the process of potatoes, onions and fruits. Last time the country faced El Nino, it resulted in drought and a steep rise in the price of food items. Agriculture contributes to almost fourteen percent of the Indian economy. Any adverse weather condition leads to a low growth of GDP and causes inflation. El Nino seems to impact the economy of the country directly. It will reduce the production of sugarcane, rice, cotton, oilseeds and corn to name a few and increases the price of crops in the domestic market.

Mitigation of this effect

Now, the only sigh of relief is a working paper by the ace international monetary organization. It will help to dispel fear and anguish related to the impact of El Nino on the Indian economy. As per the report, in last one decade, there has been a reduction in the contribution of agriculture to gross domestic product, and this will mitigate the adverse effect of El Nino on the economy. There has also been an expansion in total agricultural land, and this helps in lowering its impact on the economy.

Link - http://www.marketcalls.in/economy/impact-of-el-nino-induced-monsoon-on-the-indian-economy.html?utm_content=buffercfcf0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Cheers

Hrishi

Nifty bounced back from the neckline....

Hi all,

As per my post couple of days back, Nifty exactly took support near 8270 and gave a mild bounce back. The bounce should continue hereafter and go markets should go further up above 8330-8370 levels t call it a as a meaningful bottom....

Cheers

Power to PTC!!!!

Hi all,

Just a rare stock observation.....

PTC... CMP 67.30

The stock is creating an Inverted HNS pattern on hourly charts.... One can enter long above 67.6 with SL below 64.5... Targets 70.2-73

Cheers

Hrishi

What to expext in one year from Govt.

Came across A good piece from wsj article today (A forwarded msg)

"Neelkanth Mishra, a Credit Suisse strategist, said his client presentations now include a map of India with each state labeled with the name of the country whose population is most similar. Maharashtra state’s population of 110 million makes it the size of Mexico. Uttar Pradesh, with 200 million people, is like Brazil.

“For one person sitting in Delhi to change Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Germany, France, Turkey and Canada in six months or one year is, I think, a completely irrational expectation,” Mr. Mishra said."

Cheers

Market update - Nifty touching the neckline....

Hi all,

as per my earlier updates Nifty had created an inverted  HNS pattern (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.in/2015/05/inverted-hns-beakout-bulls-are-back.html) on daily charts, which is a bullish sign. As mentioned in that markets have now corrected a bit and are trading near the neckline of the pattern near 8270-8250...

This offers a nice buying opportunity with very small risk....

The short term bias will continue to remain positive till the time markets are above 8080-8100 levels, for midterm bias 8000-7950 are crucial levels to watch out for

Please find below the chart for the event...

Regards

Hrishi

My dear fellow citizens.....PM's letter to citizens on completion of 1 year of Govt

My dear fellow citizens!

Service, in our Indian ethos is the ultimate duty – Seva Parmo Dharma. One year ago, you had entrusted me with the responsibility and honour of serving you as your . I have devoted every moment of every day, and every element of my body and spirit, in fulfilling the same with fullest sincerity and honesty.

We assumed office at a time when confidence in the India story was waning. Un-abated corruption and indecisiveness had paralyzed the government. People had been left helpless against ever climbing inflation and economic insecurity. Urgent and decisive action was needed.

We systematically went about addressing these challenges. Runaway prices were immediately brought under control. The languishing economy was rejuvenated, building on stable, policy-driven proactive governance. Discretionary allotment of our precious natural resources to a chosen few was replaced with transparent auctions. Firm steps were taken against Black Money, from setting up a SIT and passing a stringent black money law, to generating international consensus against the same. Uncompromising adherence to the principle of purity, in action as well as intent, ensured a corruption-free government. Significant changes have been brought about in work culture, nurturing a combination of empathy as well as professionalism, systems as well breaking of silos. State governments have been made equal partners in the quest for national development, building the spirit of Team India. Most importantly, we have been able to restore Trust in the government.

Guided by the principle of Antyodaya, our Government is dedicated to the poor, marginalized and those left behind. We are working towards empowering them to become our soldiers in the war against poverty. Numerous measures and schemes have been initiated – from making school toilets to setting up IITs, IIMs and AIIMS; from providing a vaccination cover to our children to initiating a people-driven Swachh Bharat mission; from ensuring a minimum pension to our labourers to providing social security to the common man; from enhancing support to our farmers hit by natural calamities to defending their interests at WTO; from empowering one and all with self attestation to delivering subsidies directly to people’s banks; from universalizing the banking system to funding the unfunded small businesses; from irrigating fields to rejuvenating Ma Ganga; from moving towards 24x7 power to connecting the nation through road and rail; from building homes for the homeless to setting up smart cities, and from connecting the North-East to prioritizing development of Eastern India.

Friends, this is just the beginning. Our objective is to transform quality of life, infrastructure and services. Together we shall build the India of your dreams and that of our freedom fighters. In this, I seek your blessings and continued support.

Always in your Service,
Jai Hind!

Read & Listen to PM's message to the nation in the language of your choice

Home Loan your biggest worry? Then Do this.....

Hi,

Got a nice forward on Home Loan Vs SIP.....

Really looks good..... Advisable, even at a market CAGR of anything more than 15-16% will be a profitable affair...

Regards....

Indian funds have beaten Warren Buffett in returns...

Hi All,

Came across a nice article on Indian MF industry, it's an interview of Mr. Nilesh Shah , MD Kotak Mahindra AMC by Economic times...

Indian investors are still in reverse track, Nilesh Shah tells ET Wealth. The good news is a more mature set of investors has entered the market in recent years.

A recent report says most actively managed mutual funds underperformed their benchmarks in the past five years. What are your observations?

Nilesh Shah: There's a saying that if you torture data enough, it will confess to everything. The SPIVA report is nothing but torturin .. 

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47395888.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

#NaMo Innovative way of preparing your own Report Card....!!!

Hi All,

Came across a link about the One Year Progress by NaMo Govt. worth going through...

http://www.narendramodi.in/oneyear

Regards

Interesting Read.... Major firms creating slowdown to hit back at PM

Hi All,

A report worth reading by a leading Financial Services Firm published in Business Standard News Paper.... If the same is authentic (looks like as it is published in a leading business news daily) really surprising and also augers well for India over a longer term prospective. It really tells you that this governmnt is doing some good things not so very welcomed by the corporates..... 

Worth Reading

Some major power, infrastructure, metals and mining companies are planning to consciously hold back capital expenditure to “create an economic slowdown”, according to a report by Ambit Capital Research, released on Wednesday. Quoting sources close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the report said the move was prompted by their disappointment over the PM’s crackdown on crony capitalists.

The Ambit report also launched a spirited defence of the PM and talked about its “growing conviction that the PM is prioritising a clean-up of the system over pursuit of near-term GDP growth”. The report repeatedly quotes “sources close to the PM” as saying Modi has got multi-decadal ambitions and will not be panicked into generating short-term results which could compromise his longer-term goals.

Claiming the findings are a result of the research team’s repeated visits to Delhi and other state capitals, Ambit made other startling allegations against a section of Indian companies, without naming any.  “The forthcoming black money Bill seems likely to result in an exodus of Indian businessmen seeking residentship abroad. We have already heard about promoters of several prominent small-midcap companies who have taken tax residentship abroad in the past few weeks. Also, a significant proportion of white collar professionals working in India for MNCs are contemplating leaving the country.”

“Our sources in Delhi say the government has realised that if it hastily kicks-off major capex projects without cleaning up the ecosystem of corrupt officials and bent contractors then it will simply perpetuate the rot that had set in over the past 10 years,” Ambit said.

Asking everybody to be prepared for a short-term pain, Ambit cut its FY16 gross domestic product growth estimate to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent estimated by it in March.

Terming it as the “PM’s detox diet for India”, Ambit said the clean-up has four facets: Pressurising crony capitalists and contractors into re-thinking their traditional approach to rigging the system; attacking the subsidy fraud through Direct Benefits Transfer and use the Aadhaar as a means of identification; pressurising civil servants and public sector company chiefs to deliver in their day job and desist from graft and attacking the “black economy”.

Macquarie Capital has come out with a note titled “Modi Meter — One year later: 7/10”. The rating is much higher than what corporate CEOs would give the government. Authored by Rakesh Arora and Arun Bhattacharya, the report on the Modi government is a study in contrast to the United Progressive Alliance government, thanks to its decisive action, transparency and development focus.

Like Ambit Capital, Macquarie’s Arora, too, says the government has done away with crony capitalism by moving all approval processes online, introducing an auction system for resources and focusing on improving ease of doing business.

Macquarie Capital says: “Corporates that are used to receiving doles and fiscal incentives are finding themselves thrown at the deep end of the pool and tackling competition to survive. However, the government’s efforts to ease land acquisition has been jeopardised by populist opposition.”

Link - http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/major-firms-creating-slowdown-to-hit-back-at-pm-ambit-report-115052001213_1.html

What does Mr. RR has to say about one year of NDA Govt. in India .....

Hi All,

For all of you especially from Financial Industry and even me sometimes, who are confused about the performance of the present Govt.

A nice article in Financial Express -

The expectations from the Narendra Modi government when it came to power last year were “probably unrealistic” but it has taken steps to create an environment for investment and is “sensitive” to concerns of investors, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said.

“This government came in with tremendous expectations and I think the kind of expectations were probably unrealistic for any government,” Rajan said responding to questions after his address to the Economic Club of New York yesterday.

He said in the minds of the people, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image was that of “Ronald Reagan on a white horse” coming to slay anti-market forces and such comparison was “probably not appropriate.”

Rajan, however, said the government has “taken steps to create the environment for investment, which I think is important.”

The government is “sensitive” to the concerns of investors and is looking into addressing economic issues, he said.

Rajan’s remarks come as the Modi-led government completes one year in office this month, having received a commanding majority from an electorate that wanted jobs, economic development and respite from rising prices and corruption.

The Reserve Bank of India Governor said a “big part” of the business environment is taxes and the government has said it will not bring retrospective taxation again.

“However once the tax authority levies a demand on you, there is a quasi-judicial nature of that proceeding and therefore it has to go through the courts before it is resolved. The government cannot intervene,” Rajan said.

“Legacy issues are winding their way through the courts, including issues based on laws that existed before they were changed,” he said.

The corporate tax rate will also come down one per cent every year going forward, he added.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist said “perhaps” India could have done a “better job” in handling these issues but “going forward the government says no more of this kind of stuff we will do.”

Rajan said there are several areas where the government has taken more “serious and significant” advances to improve investor confidence and propel growth.

On the issue of subsidies, he said petrol and diesel subsidies have gone.

“Going forward these subsidies will be transferred directly into bank accounts,” he said, adding that already the cooking gas subsidy is being transferred directly to bank accounts.

Rajan said there is a “broad consensus” for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and while he had hoped for the GST Bill to have passed in the just concluded session of Parliament, he feels there is “enough momentum” that “it will be done well in time and roll out by March 31 or April 1 next year.”

“In fact (the government) is going ahead with the apparatus to ensure that it is actually done,” Rajan said.

Another key legislation that the government is focusing on is the Land Acquisition Bill, which is important from the perspective of certain public works, Rajan said.

He said that since different states have their own land acquisition bills, some commentators have suggested the possibility that the states should decide for themselves as to how to implement their respective land acquisition provisions.

There are tremendous plans for investment, particularly in the Mumbai-Delhi industrial corridor and freight corridors, the RBI Governor said.

“My sense is that things are happening,” he said.

Rajan also called the government’s spending cuts “significant,” and said “there has been some amount of fiscal consolidation over and above what the government is owning up to.”

He said inflation “has come down tremendously in India” and rupee has basically stayed relatively flat since the beginning of the year.”

“…if you look at rupee’s volatility relative to other currencies, you’d have to argue that the rupee has been one of the most stable currencies (against) the dollar,” Rajan said.

“It’s been much stronger than other currencies,” he said.

With the Current Account Deficit also projected to come down from more than four per cent to 1.5 per cent this year, Rajan said “the big deficit numbers have come down” and the focus is on growth.

He, however, said while investment intention and investment is picking up, the pace can be faster.

Rajan noted that the problem to some extent lies in the week balance sheet of banks and there is no supply problem as banks are willing to lend.

The government is pushing the banks very hard to clean up the balance sheet and to improve the governance structure of the banks, including separate chairman and Managing Director positions. Banks are also being encouraged to elect new people as Chairman, may be from outside the system, he said.

Link - http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/expectations-from-new-govt-were-probably-unrealistic-rbi-guv-raghuram-rajan/74237/

Regards...

#ModiInsultsIndia First Foot in Mouth statement by NaMo!!!

Hi all,

First of all, with all due respect to Mr. Modi and his designation, him saying that we were ashamed of being born in a country before he came in to power it is completely not acceptable and definitely not expected of NaMo. I watched the video where he said it and was really amazed to see that the audience was laughing to this sentence, hope they are not from India, else I am feeling ashamed of having them as my countrymen....

So on business front (Little bit of it what I know is 26 odd deals with $ 22 BL are inked which involve companies like Adani, Bharti Airtel, Welspun etc., I also heard ICICI Bank is planning on a new bank in Shanghai to expand its operations in China....) dont think that he has done any harm to India or Indians for that matter but the actual insulting statement came in Mangolia where he said that Indians were ashamed of being born in India before his Govt...

This is a bit too much and surely not expected from a responsible person like Mr. Modi.. We have a lot of expectation from you Sir, your actions may speak up over a period of time but statements like this might have a even more long lasting impact politically, and we don't want to see any one else in power because only 5 years may not be sufficient....

Regards...

Inverted HNS beakout........ Bulls are back!!!

Hi All,

After a week of abnormal intraday volatility, Nifty managed to close crucial resistances today.

Nifty also closed strongly above the neck line for the Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern on Daily charts, which is a very good sign..... The pattern roughly gives targets of 8600+. The volume confirmation for the same is not encouraging which means there might be some muted days or even negative days in between, however short term bias looks bullish with supports near 8300-8120-8080...

The mid term outlook is also bullish with final supports near 8000-7950....

However the next hurdle now for Nifty is near 8510 mark, which can be a litmus test for market's potential to go up further...

Cheers....

Hrishi

#ModiinChina

Hi All,

A nice article by Harsh Pant....  ‎Professor of International Relations at King's College London

Really worth reading.... Important points in Bold

For all the pomp and circumstance, the only thing that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to China will be remembered for will be his plain-speaking. And it is by no means a small achievement. For years, Indian political leaders have gone to China and said what the Chinese wanted to hear. Modi changed all that when he openly "stressed the need for China to reconsider its approach on some of the issues that hold us back from realising full potential of our partnership" and suggested that "China should take a strategic and long-term view of our relations". In his speech at the Tsinghua University too, Modi went beyond the rhetorical flourishes of Sino-Indian cooperation and pointed out the need to resolve the border dispute and in the interim, clarify the Line of Actual Control to "ensure that our relationships with other countries do not become a source of concern for each other". This is a significant shift in India's traditional defensiveness vis-a-vis China and should put the relationship on a firmer footing.

The Chinese are masters are beguiling their interlocutors. So even as Modi was being given a red carpet welcome on his high-profile visit to China and Chinese leaders were expressing hopes that Sino-Indian ties can be taken to a new level, China's state-owned television CCTV was showing India's map without Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, while reporting on the prime minister's visit. There is a method to this Chinese madness, of course.

The Chinese president became the first Chinese head of state to visit India in eight years in September 2014 and was warmly welcomed in India by Modi. But the visit was overshadowed by a border crisis when People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops entered Indian territory in Chumur, Ladakh. Given this reality, it is vital for the Indian leadership to move beyond rhetoric and insist on tackling the really thorny issues that have been bedevilling this relationship for years now, making it difficult for the bilateral relationship to achieve its full potential.

The boundary issue remains the biggest stumbling block. This military restiveness on the Sino-Indian border does not bode well for regional stability as the military balance along the long and contested border is rapidly altering in Beijing's favour with the upgrade of the Chinese military and civilian infrastructure in Xinjiang and Tibet. Chinese military modernisation has far outpaced Indian defence upgrade, raising concerns about New Delhi's ability to deter a limited conflict with China.

Trade ties too haven't grown to an extent where they can ameliorate political tensions. China's annual trade with India is only a fraction of its trade with Europe, Japan, and the United States. Indian exports to China are primarily dominated by raw materials and iron ore. The challenge confronting New Delhi is thus to match the level of Chinese exports to India and diversify the country's export basket. Even as bilateral trade between China and India is moving towards the $70-billion mark, India's trade deficit with China has soared from $1 billion in 2001-02 to more than $40 billion. This rising trade deficit in China's favour is problematic for India, as is the Indian failure to use its core competencies to enter the Chinese market.

Modi's focus has been on engaging China economically to further India's developmental needs. Underscoring Indian openness for business, Modi encouraged Chinese business to invest in India as firms signed deals worth more than $22 billion. Many of the contracts were for Chinese banks to finance Indian firms, and also included deals in the telecommunication, steel, solar energy and film sectors. Other agreements included one for the China Development Bank to fund a power plant for Adani Power, as well as a steel project between Indian conglomerate Welspun and two Chinese firms (Bharti Airtel also one of the others). Modi welcomed potential Chinese investment in sectors like housing, renewable energy, high-speed rail, metro, ports and airports, adding that India was eager to draw on China's expertise in mass manufacturing.

While China's rising profile in South Asia is not surprising, New Delhi's concern about its own strategic presence in its periphery - South Asia and the Indian Ocean region - is growing. Even as China is becoming the largest trade partner of most states in South Asia, including India, New Delhi's strategic hold on South Asia is weakening. To New Delhi, China's strategy towards South Asia seems premised on encircling India and confining it within the geographical coordinates of the region. This strategy of using proxies started with Pakistan and has gradually evolved to include other states in the region, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.

China is entering markets in South Asia more aggressively through both trade and investment, as well as improving linkages with South Asian states through treaties and bilateral cooperation. Following this up by building a ring network of roads and ports in India's neighbourhood and deepening military engagements with states on India's periphery, China has firmly entrenched itself in New Delhi's backyard.

China's plans for a maritime silk road connected by cross-border infrastructure will further cement Beijing's role in the region as regional states have lapped up China's invitation to join this initiative. India has been invited too, but it remains ambivalent about the project and is yet to make up its mind.

Unlike other major global powers, China refuses to recognise India as a global power and does not show sensitivity to its core security concerns. As a consequence, China has replaced Pakistan as the nation's primary security concern. Ultimately, however, it is more about India's own inability to get its act together. The challenge that China poses to India has been quite evident for some time now. Yet Indian policymakers failed to galvanise their diplomacy and military sufficiently to manage the problem.

There are clearly new opportunities to significantly expand economic cooperation for mutual benefit. The present government with its decisive mandate is better positioned than its predecessors to give a new direction to India's China policy. Beijing should have used the Indian prime minister's visit to reach out to India more substantively than before. But once again, China has shown that it willing to muddle along when it comes to India, if only to keep India perpetually on the defensive. Modi has broken the mould and it will be an interesting ride from here onwards.

Markets too volatile.... Bull are getting tested badly....!

Hi All,

Markets have become too very volatile. Without any significant event, IV is more than 21.50% which is sign that a strong move can take place either side, or the IV might start to cool down a bit in coming days. Hence traders, especially Option traders, trade with strict Stop Loss.

As communicated in the earlier posts, the bias for Nifty on short term still remains positive with supports below 8000-7950.... If that level is taken out on closing basis then further downside till 7800-7700 can also be expected.

Since the markets are volatile its advised for short term traders to buy on dips with stop loss below supports.

Trade Safely, Trade Smartly

Cheers

Hrishi

What is MAT (Minimum Alternative Tax) and the current dispute between FIIs and Govt.

What is MAT?

MAT was first introduced in 1988-89 to ensure that all companies pay a fixed percentage of their book profits as tax. Book profits are the profits made but not realised through a transaction. For calculating MAT, they are computed through a specific process.

MAT was withdrawn by the Finance Act, 1990 and then reintroduced by Finance (No. 2) Act, 1996, with effect from 1 April, 1997.

As per the provisions of section 115JB of the Income-Tax (I-T) Act, if the income tax payable by any company on its “taxable income” under the normal provisions of the act is less than 18.5% of its book profits, then the company needs to pay MAT at 18.5% (plus applicable surcharge and education cess).

This tax is to be paid even if the companies’ tax liability, as per income tax laws, is lower than the mandated tax rate of 18.5%, owing to tax incentives and deductions availed by the company. MAT provisions were intended to tax zero-tax companies and companies paying marginal tax.

What is the current dispute between the government and FPIs?

The I-T department issued notices to foreign investors for levy of MAT on capital gains accruing to them from sale of shares, citing an August 2012 order by the Authority for Advance Rulings in the case of Castleton Investment Ltd that MAT is applicable on both domestic and foreign companies. So far, the department has sent notices to 68 FPIs demanding a total Rs.608 crore as MAT.

The FPIs contend that MAT provisions should not apply to them since they do not have any place of business in India and so are not required to maintain account books in India.

It has also been indicated at the time of enactment of and amendments to the MAT provisions that MAT is a levy of tax on domestic companies to neutralise the effect of tax incentives. A foreign company, especially an FPI, is unlikely to claim any of the specified incentives under the domestic tax law.

What has the government proposed?

In his Budget speech, Jaitley had exempted capital gains accruing to FPIs from levy of MAT. But these provisions would only be applicable from 1 April, 2015. “Exclusion of capital gain introduced in the Finance Bill, 2015 for FPIs would not have retroactive application to years prior to 1 April 2015 and accordingly, MAT provisions shall apply to income and capital gains earned by FPIs for years prior to 1 April 2015,” says Rakesh Nangia, managing partner, Nangia and Co., a Delhi-based chartered accountant firm.

Earlier this month, Jaitley also moved amendments to the Finance Bill 2015 to exempt foreign investors’ capital gains from the sale of securities, interest income, royalty and fees for technical services from MAT, in cases where the tax rate was less than 18.5%, a move which is expected to benefit private equity, venture capital investors and debt funds. But the minister refrained from giving any blanket relief from liability arising in previous years. In other words, the dispute on retrospective levy of MAT remains, which is to be decided by the Supreme Court .

The challenge for FPIs

For foreign companies that do not have any permanent establishment in India, the effect of MAT can be high as these companies may not be able to claim credit of MAT in their home country.

“The tax authorities have asked FPIs to pay MAT retrospectively. Since most of the FPIs have already distributed the funds back to the investors, it will be practically impossible for them to recover the funds in order to discharge MAT liability,” said Manoj Purohit, partner, Walker Chandiok and Co. LLP, a professional services firm.

“Paying MAT would negatively impact FPIs as most of their income is either exempt from tax under the Act or tax treaty or taxed at concessional rates of 15% in case of short-term capital gains. Considering that their intention is only limited to investing in India and the Act already extends various beneficial tax treatments to FPIs, the backdoor taxation of such FPIs by way of MAT is unfair and unjust,” says Nangia.

Art of Money Making....: Interesting Read - Rich and Poor Divide..... Must ...

Art of Money Making....: Interesting Read - Rich and Poor Divide..... Must ...: Hi All, An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had recently ...

Interesting Read - Rich and Poor Divide..... Must read for us....

Hi All,

An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had recently failed an entire class.

That class had insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, "OK, we will have an experiment in this class on this plan. All grades will be averaged and everyone will receive the same grade so no one will fail and no one will receive an A...."(substituting grades for dollars - something closer to home and more readily understood by all).

After the first test, the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy.When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.As the tests proceeded, the scores never increased as bickering, blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

To their great surprise, ALL FAILED and the professor told them that communism would also ultimately failbecause when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great, but when government takes all the reward away,no one will try or want to succeed.

These are possibly the 5 best sentences you'll ever read and all applicable to this experiment:

1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!

5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

An article by visiting editor for ET..... Both NaMo and RaGa can learn somethings

Hi All,

An interesting read...

What is been mentioned I think Modi doing the same.... All those people crying for Land Bill please read and try to understand..

Many lessons flow from David Cameron's victory in the British elections for Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. First and foremost: it's the economy, stupid! Economic performance in your last two years matters hugely, even though it's not the only factor.

The last Labour government ended with an economic downslide and so lost the 2010 election. David Cameron assumed office and bravely opted for sustained initial austerity and pain. He promised this ultimately provide rising growth and employment. He delivered on that strategy, and was voted back.

Time for Gain, Not Pain

By contrast, the UPA 2 registered 8% growth in its first two years and barely 4.7% in its last two years (old GDP series). However, had the timing been reversed, the UPA might have been re-elected. Instead, it crashed to ahumiliating defeat.

The lesson for Modi: don't hold back, take tough decisions in your first two years — in infrastructure, electricity reform, bank reform, red tape, corruption. Don't worry about temporary dips in your .. 

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47257143.cms?utm_source=FbM&utm_medium=ETFbMain&utm_campaign=ETFbMain&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Hurdle stopped the upward journey.....

Hi All,

As discussed in yesterdays update, Nifty faced a huge supply near 8320-8360 area, and is down by around 130 points from yesterday's high of 8332.7...

Those who went short yesterday can book profits now and wait to re-enter the markets.

Now ray of hopes for bulls are 8200-8170-8150-8120 & last but not the least... 8000-7950...

To my expectation Nifty, if has to continue the uptrend should take support near 8200-8160..... and bounce back from hereon.....

DATA TO WATCH (Post market today, so may impact tomorrow)

CPI (YoY) (Apr) Forecast 4.90% Previous 5.17%

Cumulative Industrial Production (Mar) 2.80%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 2.8% Previous  5.0%

CMP 8210.... Any further upside is only possible if Nifty takes out 8360 comfortably... If not, even 8000 may be at risk....

Cheers

Hrishi

1st big hurdle for markets....

Hi All,

As discussed earlier, #Nifty has taken support near psychological levels of 8000 and has bounced back very strongly above 200 DMA. Now 8360 remains a crucial hurdle going forward for bulls above which next major resistance will be near 8510....

short term traders can take a small risk of shorting Nifty with strict SL above 8360-70 levels with a low probability and low risk trade.

Bias still remains bullish with supports being near recent swing bottoms of 8000-7950....

Cheers

Hrishi

Jan Dhan se Jan Suraksha

Hi All,

Please see the details for

Life Insurance worth Rs. 2Lac at Rs. 330/month

Accident Insurance worth Rs. 2Lac at Rs. 12/Year

Minimum Investments, maximum benefits - Fixed Monthly Pension Of Rs. 1k - 5k as per contributions....

http://www.jansuraksha.gov.in/

Cheers 

Hrishi

Markets at a crucial juncture....

Hi All,

Markets have been trading with weird swings in past 4-5 days and are now trading near a crucial supports of 8140-8150..... Breaking this level on closing basis may trigger more downside till 8060-7950..... 8000 mark can also act as a psychological support.

Probable Reasons for downfall -

• Yemen’s Shiite Houthi rebels attacked the Saudi Arabian city of Najran 
• A breakout in Crude oill possibly suggesting more upside
• Reason for today's sell off.. around 20-25 lac Nifty futures have been sold within 10 minutes
• Other reason can be upcoming Chinese IPOs where the funds would have moved to
• Policy announcements with regards to Land Aquisition Bill, Delayed GST and MAT issues for FIIs., etc.

What to expect - 

For Traders - A close below 8150-8140 can trigger further sell off till 8000 and then may be till 7960-7800 levels in short to mid term as well.

If the markets have to create a short term bottom without breaking these recent supports there has to be a sharp bounce back may be today or max by this week, else gates for more downside are wide open.

Traders are advised to be very very cautious and trade with strict stop loss and lesser leverage.

For Investors - 

Just one thing....When everyone is greedy  be cautious, and when everyone is cautious be greedy.....

Markets have corrected by more than 10% from the all time highs of 9100+ levels, which everyone was waiting for, investors should grab this opportunity to buy quality stocks at low prices...

Bottomline.... Traders wait an watch, trade with confirmations and with strict stop loss and investors..... Grab the opportunity....

Cheers

Hrishi

Market corner.....

Markets look like are waiting for a bullish trigger, and will continue to slid till then.....

The trigger can be -

Global relief (Unlikely to be predicted)
Rate Cut by RBI (May be)
Good pick up in earnings, majority earnings are done for this quarter, so looks like this factor will be played only after the Q1FY2015-16 gets over in June....

Till then market seems to be following a wide rage with crucial supports near 7800-8000 and hurdles on top near 8500-8650-9000

Cheers

Hrishi

Your Way to Financial Success

Hi all... Imporatant!!!

Thank you very much for following me on my blog.

Did not really get time to put something here.

However request you to follow me on Twitter where I have been very active and also on Facebook for regular Market / Politics update....

Sorry for the inconvenience caused....

Hope to see you on FB or Twitter...

Twitter - Follow @hrishisp - https://twitter.com/hrishisp
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/anadihrishi

Cheers

Hrishi

What to expect from markets on D-Day and in near term???

What to expect from markets on D-Day and in near term???

As we all already know, markets have rallied close to 20% from the lows of 4^th February on the expectation of a strong, stable government of NDA under the leadership of Mr. Narendra Modi.

By looking at the market response even after the declaration of Exit Polls, it looks like bulls are very eager, but unfortunately without any strong reason.

Few things which should be looked at on a conservative side, No crackdown in the dollar to match the mammoth up-move in equities, not a significant uptick on the earnings by Indian corporate, Inflation & IIP data still not at expected levels, global pressures in terms of Russia – Ukraine tension, Continued QE tapering by the US, bearish signals from Chinese PMI and real estate, etc

What can happen? –

Scenario 1 (High probability)–

In the case of NDA having clear majority, markets may not go up substantially (may be by only 2%-4%) in the near future as the same is already discounted in the markets. In the same case BJP’s seats might also play a big role, anything above 200-220 would be cheered from markets. Even after this scenario after posting short term gains, markets may follow Buy on Rumour Sell on Fact terminology

Scenario 2 – (Moderate probability)

However if NDA just fails short of a clear majority with near about 240-250 seats, a sell off can be witnessed as BJP would have to take time then, in order to stitch the post poll alliance, which might be challenging to an extent. Also BJP on its own gets anything below 210-200 seats markets may take it negatively from the stability perspective. However, after the selloff, markets will offer a good Buying Opportunity for traders as well as investors.

Scenario 3 – (Low probability)

If on the higher side NDA manages to get more than 300-310 seats markets may give a short term jump, which can take markets to 5-10%.

Scenario 4 – (Lowest probability)

In a lowest probable scenario NDA getting less than 200, though I personally don’t believe in the same, the doors might be opened for a huge panic and sell off, a possibility of a down circuit can’t be ruled out.

Advice for the traders -

16^th May 2014 is not the only day available for making profits, stay cautious and conservative, preferably without trades or otherwise with STRICT stop losses, please remember though the leads will start coming in from 1100 hrs, the final tally will come post markets, so not advisable to take overnight trades tomorrow.

Advice for Investors –

Be happy as your investments have grown close to 20% in one quarter, however, big portfolios should ideally be hedged with Puts of 6300 / 6200 or max till 6000 for safeguarding your portfolio if Scenario 2 / 4 becomes reality, this just going to be an insurance premium for your portfolio and not a money making avenue. And needless to say, if markets plummet because of Scenario 2 / 4, it should be used to accumulate some quality stocks for your portfolio…

For Option traders -

The IVs are at sky high levels near 40%, though it had cooled off a bit post the exit polls, have come back to the levels of last week. Due to such a high IV buying of options should be avoided, very risky traders can think of writing deep out of the money calls above 8000 levels / puts below 6000 levels for making those limited profits (mot more than Rs. 500-100 per lot) with an element of unlimited risk, hence not advisable. However, strategies which will support IV cooling off effect like Butterfly, etc can be looked at.

Cheers

Hrishikesh Prabhavalkar

Election Results 2014…. PLAY SAFE!!!

We have been getting lot of requests for recommending an Option strategy for benefiting from the Election results, however due to very high volatility in markets (IV close to 35% against average IV of 12-18%), the Options premiums are very costly and hence it is not advisable to enter in to any Buy side strategies like Straddle, Strangle, etc.

As we all are aware, the markets have already rallied by 6-9% in the run up to the elections on the solid optimism about the NDA forming the government under Mr. Narendra Modi.

However, in the event of NDA not getting the majority / BJP getting lesser than expected seats / Possibility of a Hung parliament, etc markets can take it negatively and experts say that this might lead to a huge fall in the markets.

So as a safety measure, in order to protect your portfolio of greater than Rs. 100000-150000 from this unexpected downfall, you can think of buying some deep out of the money put (distantly lower from the CMP by ~ 10%)

As per the market scenario NIFTY 29-May-2014 PE 6000 can be looked at for the same purpose as the insurance against a fall in portfolio.

Following aspects should be kept in mind before entering the Put Option….
This Put is suitable for you only if your portfolio is worth 1-1.5 lacs
This is not a money making strategy but is only for protecting the portfolio by reducing losses in the case of result outcome being other than the current expectations (No majority for NDA, etc). it’s like an Insurance for the portfolio which reduces the loss only on the occurrence of an unforeseen event .
The 6000 PE is currently trading near 40 and should only be bought till 45-50 levels, where by the maximum loss will be limited to Rs. 2500 + brokerage which is going to be aprrox 2.5% of his portfolio value of Rs.100000
The number of lots will completely depend upon the portfolio value
if markets go up or do not fall substantially (more than 5-10%) then the entire premium would be lost (Approx Rs. 2500+Cost)
The volatility due to the results may not start after 16th May but after the Exit polls are out post the last phase of the elections on 12th May 2014

1st target achieved.....

Hi All,

As mentioned inn my earlier post "Bottom in Place", the 1st target of 6100 for Nifty Long initiated near 6060 is achieved, book partial profits a sustained movement or perhaps a close above 6110 mark can take Nifty to higher levels of 6170-6190-6260...

Cheers

Hrishi

Bottom in place...

Hi all,

After yesterdays fight back from bulls, almost after 5 days, it looks like Nifty likely have made a short term bottom.....

With multiple confirmation on hourly and daily charts, Nifty is likely to see a strong up-move after surpassing 6060 mark.

Initial target can be very near by at 6110, however above that it looks like 6190-6240-6300 may not be difficult for Nifty in short to medium term...

Traders can safely go long above the 6060 levels with a Stop Loss below 5980. Conservative traders can also go long on dips with Stop Loss below 5930-25 levels...

Cheers

Hrishi

Reliable Reliance....

Hi all,

Buy Reliance (positional for 2 months) with a stop below 760 with targets of  890-920...

Cheers

Hrishi

Ranbaxy!!!!!

As suggested Ranbaxy achieved target 1 of 330... Forgot to update....

Cheers

Hrishi