Market update - Deuce between Bulls & Bears ..., but Advantage Bears . . . .

Hi All,

As per the earlier post Bull hai ke maanata nahi, Nifty respected an attempt made by bulls to take it ahead of the life time highs of 9709 levels, however bulls could not complete the task.

Nifty has now created a bearish Shooting start like candle on daily charts yesterday, thanks to the strong fight back from the bears in the second half yesterday.

The bias now, will continue to be cautious to bearish unless Nifty surpasses and sustains 9710-20 levels....

On the lower side 9600-9540 will be strong supports....

Risky traders can remain short below supports with ultimate stop loss above the life highs.

Below 9600 Nifty is expected to touch 9570-50 levels even intraday, a short term bearishness can be seen after breaking the 9540 mark decisively.

It's been seen often that Nifty has a tendency to break important levels for a while and continue in the opposite direction, hence it's advisable to enter a trade after supports are broken decisively and a sustainable movement is seen below the same.

Cheers

Hrishi

Market update - Ye BULL hai ke maanta nahi ! ! !

Hi All,

As per yesterday's update, bears could not break,what looks like a rock solid bottom of 9580, and bulls came to rescue with a Hammer like bullish candle on Daily chart.

The Bias can even turn bullish only if Nifty surpassed 9630-40 levels with targets of all time high near 9700 levels and it can become bearish below the said level of 9580....

Advisable to trade with strict and tiny stop losses with proper money management

Cheers

Hrishi

Market update - As expected, Bears set to party harder ! ! !

Hi all,

As per the last post - Bearish Engulf (Read here), as expected Nifty could not sustain higher levels and broke the level of 9620.

Now the penultimate level of 9580 to be watched out for further move....

Below 9580 (looks like will break), bears can be in full control and Nifty can drift down to lower levels of 9530-9490-9400-9340.

Please note - Short or sell on rise view for markets only when markets sustain for a while below 9580...

Cheers

Hrishi

Market update - Bearish Engulf.....! ! !

Hi all,

As per the last post, Nifty did not sustain / close below the support mark of 9350, hence did not witness any meaningful downside....

Now on daily charts, pessimists have freshly appeared with a classic Bearish Engulf pattern (Bearish pattern) and now 9620-9580 levels will be very crucial to watch out for.... A bearish outlook only and only below these levels....

Going forward the support zone of 9620-9580-9540 will prove to be very crucial for deciding the further direction.....

Below the support zone, Nifty can expected to be corrected till 9430-9340 levels...

I will still stick to my view that after such an upmove, a short, healthy correction will be beneficial for a long term upsurge in Nifty... However the time for such a correction may not be certain...

The Monetary Policy outcome will also have a lot of impact and is likely to give further direction for markets

Let's read charts and try to get the early birds advantage.....


Cheers

Hrishi

Market update - A Gravestone ? ? ? . . . .

After a stupendous rise in Nifty from 7900 to 9500, Nifty has started to show a sign of concern yet again.

However as advised earlier, this time too a bearish view can be taken if and only if Nifty breaks 9390-9350-9250.

On Weekly charts, Nifty has created a Gravestone Doji like pattern which is bearish if Nifty breaks the low of 9390 levels....

Nifty had also created a similar bearish pattern, Shooting star on the week ended 7th April, which saw a mild correction of around 1-1.5%, however Nifty took support near 9000 mark.

Bias

Short term - Up - Support (reversal) 9390-50
Next month - Up - Support (Reversal) 9270-50

Cheers

Hrishi

लाओ बझार.....निफ्टी साडे नौ हजार ....!!!

Hi all,

Thanks to the Hidden Bullish divergence on Nifty daily charts, Nifty achieved the higher targets of 9400-9500 as expected in the earlier post (Hidden Treasure or Hide and Seek !!!)

After sustaining above 9300, Nifty continued creating higher tops higher bottom formation, which is healthy sign for bulls. Thanks to lower CPI data, better than regular forecast for monsoon, GST roll out, etc it has closed above 9500 mark which is very encouraging too.

It is advisable to book part profits in the long positions created near 9300 levels and trail stop loss in profit below 9350 levels...

On daily charts, Nifty is trading with a RSI of 71+ levels which suggests that the markets are overbought, however, there are no bearish signals on charts right now.

Also, though Nifty witnesses a correction it is merely going to be short to medium term in nature as higher time frame charts are also showing same hidden divergences (refer earlier post) which confirms long term bullish outlook... The recent bottom near 6800 should act as a stop loss for long term bullish trend.

Traders are advised to trade based on a set plan of action.....and with proper money management

Short term supports / reversals / stop loss - 9250
Mid term supports / reversals / stop loss - 9000

Will keep you all posted occasionally with my views and personal predictions.....

Cheers

Market update - Hidden treasure or Hide & Seek ! ! !

Hi All,

As mentioned in the earlier update (Read - Book Profits) Nifty turned the course from 9050-80 mark (bottom near 9075) and bounced back sharply to create a new Life high near 9280... It took support near the super trend level of 9068

Though, in my opinion, a slight lengthier correction would have been healthy for the uptrend to sustain longer, after creating a new high or may be if Nifty surpasses 9300 mark the same looks difficult now and markets are set to rise at least till 9400-9500 levels.

On daily and weekly charts Nifty has shown a hidden positive divergence (Please see the image for Classic / regular Divergence Vs Hidden Divergence) which is a welcome sign for bulls going forward.

Though short term traders can capitalize on this divergence, it would be advisable, especially for positional and long term traders to wait for a Weekly close above 9280-9300 for a mid term up ward bias...

Any upside is warranted with a support of 9075- 9000 levels, as breaking that level will give lower bottom formation for Nifty which is not good for bulls....

Trading action for this week will be very crucial to decide the further course of the markets.....

As expected....Book Small profits....

Hi all,

As expected in my earlier post Hrishi's Blog - Shooting Star
Bull defended the key support area near 9150-80 for a lot of time, however could not sustain and Nifty broke the key support.

On the lower side now, 9080-50 will be first pit stop which is

Daily Supertrend support
A 78.6% retracement of the entire rise from 9019 to 9274 levels.
And a support and gap on houly charts

People who are standing short from the 9150-80 or higher levels can think of booking small partial profits near 9000 mark.

Below 9050-60, Nifty is expected to fall till 9020-8950 odd levels...

Cheers

Hrishi

Shooting Star....

Hi All,

After a stupendous run, Nifty showed reluctance to move forward the 9300 mark... after trading sideways for a while in 9000-9200 range.

However, as a sad news for bulls, on weekly charts Nifty has formed a Shooting Star Pattern, a bearish reversal pattern which will get confirmed below 9180.

So, breaking 9175-9150 can mean a short term bear trend for Nifty with possible targets on the lower side near 9000-8970-8890

Request traders to go short only and only if Nifty breaks the mentioned support zones....

Higher the risk, higher the reward ! ! ! Go Long in Nifty

Hi All,

Risk takers can go Long in Nifty for intraday @9080-85 with stop loss below 9050 and targets of 9130-50

Looks like a hidden divergence on hourly charts.

Advisable to close the trade intraday as a gap opening can be expected due to Fed meeting outcome tonight.

Cheers

Hrishi

Nifty Life high, but failed to sustain the momentum...

Hi all,

Though nifty reached an all time high near 9122, it gave away more than half a percent gains and finally closed near 9087, thus forming a Doji (indecisive) candle on daily charts.

Hence, going forward, 9050-8980 will be crucial levels to watch out for any further surge in the indices. A close below 9050 means a short term bear trend on account of close below 9050 (low of today's Doji candle).

What Budget 2017 is offering traders? Ans - No Bad News is Good News ! ! !

Update 10 AM 2nd Feb 2017

#Budget - No bad news is good news ! ! !

Nifty, took support near 8550-8540 mark and gave a thumping response to the Union Budget 2017, rising by almost 150 points from the support....

Going forward, resistances will be near 8740-8810-8900-8970-9000 and as a conservative trader I would like to go long only on dips as the markets are near the ceiling,,,

Cheers

Hrishi
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update - 12.30 PM 31st Jan 2017

As expected, Nifty already tanked by half a percent after breaching short term reversal level of 8600 and now trades near 8560...

Next supports will be 8540-8500-8460-8420...

8400-8450 can be very crucial zone for bulls and the sentiments can again turn bullish for immediate term....

Cheers

Hrishi

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hi All,

Welcome back all after almost a gap of 2 months. I was and still caught up in some new ventures, but couldn't resist myself from posting a view for Grand Event of Budget 2017.

Markets tanked more than 10% from the highs of 9000 odd levels till almost 7900 amidst huge volatility due to events like Surgical strike on Pakistan, Demonetization, US Elections, etc.

However, after everything was settled, Nifty quietly recovered from the lows and gained around 10% to reach highs of 8700 levels last week.

Budget 2017 - 

Now, Budget, which is undoubtedly the most important yearly trigger for markets is round the corner, followed by various State elections which will also have a lot of impact on markets from political point of view.

What history says - 

After a huge fall, and a recovery based on some good results and partial settling of many domestic and foreign concerns, it is expected that we should see an upmove post Budget....

HOWEVER, it is observed that most of the Budgets earlier have either seen a Pre or a Post Budget rally and then an opposite move of the same. What I mean is that Nifty has already seen a rally of around 10% from the lows of November, and it is expected (based on historical observations) to trade subdued post Budget.

I am not an Economic expert to predict what the FM will offer in the Budget, but I personally feel that markets after a huge volatility would settle somewhere near the current range.

Technical evidences . . 

Daily charts have shown a visible weakness in the prices with consecutive selling pressure candles, with today's candle being almost similar to Shooting star / Gravestone Doji. also there are multiple resistances on daily chats near 8680-8740-8810-8900-8970-9000

On weekly and monthly charts also, Nifty is trading near a huge resistance area of 8610-8810, Supertrend too, will offer selling pressure near 8780 levels on closing basis

Crucial levels to watch out for - 

For Short term - A sustainable move below 8600 can trigger a short term bearish reversal
For mid term - A move below 8300 levels in Nifty will mean bearish implications for even mid term
For Long term primary trend - The same will be bullish until the lows of 7890-50 are intact.

What to do?

I personally feel that the bias for markets is surely gonna be volatile and traders are expected to trade with strict stop losses for either side trades.