Bye Bye 2013....... Cues for 2014!!!

Hi All,

In 2013, Nifty traded with a wide range of more than 1200 points close to 20% (5118-6405)

What do we expect in 2014.....

1. LS Polls 2014 - A big game changer is undoubtedly going to be the Lok Sabha elections in April-May. A clear or a decent majority is surely going to be cheered by markets. The mood was completely in the favour of BJP due to the overwhelming popularity of Narendra Modi but one has to agree that the same has reduced a bit after the stunning debut of the AAP, thanks to Arvind Kejriwal. However, though AAP can make an impact even at the National Level the same may not be of the same as Delhi. I believe AAP can capture seats somewhere in between 20-50 as their National Debut, however more will depend upon how are they performing in Delhi as the entire media seems to be only working as a watchdog for their pre-poll promises.

2. Macro and Micro Economic Growth - The US Bond Tapering (QE) is likely to resume in the 1QCY2013 and the same is been discounted and also seems to be good to neutral for India as per many analysts... At the Micro level, on the eve of 2013, Indian economy continues to feel the heat of Inflation and low growth. As per the statement given by Mr. Raghuram Rajan, a clear majority at the centre will fuel policy reforms which he feels is a key to growth momentum.

3. Corporate Sector - Even the corporates would be keen on the LS polls and the general expectation built up can be seen with BJP due to a strong Anti-Congress wave.

4. Foreign Investments - Many of the big houses has clarified, atleast 3 to 4 to my knowledge that they are waiting for LS polls and are willing to bring in a lot more Vitamin M in India if BJP forms the government.

Technical Observation - 

Amid all the negatives, markets manage to surpass their all time highs which many people termed as a weak rally in spite of prevailing negativity... however I personally feel that if markets manage to give a monthly or at least a weekly close above the all time highs of 6350-6400 one can see a nice bull run over the next 4-10 years... and the triggers for the same will be the ones mentioned above....

So let's wait and watch.....

Wishing you all a Very Happy and Prosperous New Year 2014.....

Cheers

Hrishi

Welcome step..... Worth reading and investing for real return after adjusting for Inflation....

Inflation Indexed National Saving Securities – Cumulative (IINSS-C)
 

The issue of India’s Inflation Indexed National Savings Securities-Cumulative (IINSS-C) for retail investors will open for subscription on December 23, 2013 and close on December 31, 2013. The subscription can be closed earlier than December 31, 2013 with prior notice. It may be recalled that the Reserve Bank of India, in consultation with Government of India, on November 29, 2013 announced issuance of Government of India’s Inflation Indexed National Savings Securities-Cumulative (IINSS-C) for retail investors. Interest rate on these securities would be linked to final combined Consumer Price Index [CPI (Base: 2010=100)]. Interest rate would comprise two parts, i.e., fixed rate (1.5% per annum) and inflation rate based on CPI and the same will be compounded in the principal on half-yearly basis and paid at the time of maturity. The final combined CPI will be used with a lag of three months, i.e., final combined CPI for September 2013 will be used as reference CPI for all days of December 2013. Early redemptions will be allowed after one year from the date of issue for senior citizens (i.e., 65 years and above of age) and 3 years for all others, subject to penalty charges at the rate of 50% of the last coupon payable for early redemption. Early redemptions, however, can be made only on coupon dates. The eligible investors would include individuals, Hindu Undivided Family, Charitable Institutions registered under section 25 of the Indian Companies Act and Universities incorporated by Central, State or Provincial Act or declared to be a university under section 3 of the University Grants Commission Act, 1956 (3 of 1956). As distribution/ sale of IINSS-C would be through banks, eligible investors may approach the branches of State Bank of India, Associate Banks, Nationalised Banks, three private sector banks (viz. HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd.) and Stock Holding Corporation of India Ltd. during working hours.

At the Edge!!!!

Hi All,

As mentioned in my earlier post on Friday, markets may have some support near 6135-6200 levels..

Today Nifty hit a low of 6146, bounced back sharply till 6170-75 however could not hold on these gains and closed finally at 5154.70......

6140 level is also 61.8% retracement of the recent rally from 5970-6415, and should be respected if the markets are eying higher levels...

Low risk traders can think of taking a small risk, high reward, high probability trade with SL below key supports.... Below 6135, short term bias will change with targets near 6030-5970...

Mid term bias will remain positive till the time Nifty holds 5970-5950 levels...

Regards

Hrishi

Here we go....!!!!

Hi all,

After a nice profit booking on top, nifty is trading in its support area of 6135-40 to 6200...

A long trade now at CMP 6180 can offer a low risk, high probability and high reward trade....

CMP 6180 SL below 6135 TGTS 6250-6300-6330....

Cheers

Hrishi

Kuch corrections achhe hai....

Hi All,

As per my earlier post(http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1193946081176724201#editor/target=post;postID=8663621023365516905;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=3;src=postname) after BJP gaining a clear cut upper hand in assembly ellections markets reacted positively, however they fell off sharply from the days high and also a Life time high of 6415... currently hovering around 5350 mark.

I think this correction which might get extended till 6300-6200 (maximum) and should provide a chance to go long for traders.

for a bigger time frame a close (preferably monthly) is required above the previous life high of 5357-60.... Once that happens Nifty is set for yet another bull run with some predictable targets ranging from 8k to 10 k over a period of 3-6 years....

Traders should seek corrections for getting a long opportunity rather than trying to catch it right now.... going short for short term can fetch low risk low probability but may be a high return opportunities, so the same should be avoided by conservative traders, aggressive traders should do it once some bearishness is seen on daily or hourly charts.....

Cheers

Hrishi

5970...... Bulls try to start the fight

Hi all...


As expected Nifty bounced back from 5970 levels now resistance near 6100-6125-6190-6220...

Cheers

Hrishi

Silver shining!!!

Hi all,

Silver Mic looks good for Short term trade
CMP 45400
SL below 45000
Targets 46000-46650....

Cheers

Hrishi

Twilight???

Hi all,

Nifty along with Sensex has given a reliable bearish pattern, EVENING STAR on daily charts.

However there is a gap in Nifty between 14 & 18th November 2013 which is still not closed and becomes the final ray of hope for bulls in short term. Evening star will be confirmed when prices break 6120-6100 and sustains below it....

Sustaining below or closing below 6100 can take Nifty to the recent swing bottom near 5970 and if that is broken it may bring some more pain as Nifty might break below the neckline of the Head N Shoulder pattern on daily charts which might have targets near 5700-5600... (Thought that will not be a classic HNS pattern of its kind, breaking 6050-6000 levels will bring in enough bearish sentiments given the current domestic and global scenario, i.e. Inflation, CAD, Interest rates domestically and early QE tapering globally)

All short term long positions should ideally have a stop loss of 6100 on closing basis or a touch SL of 6030.

Please find the pictures below:

Evening Star - 




Head N Shoulder in forming - Without Volume Confirmation - 






 Head N Shoulder in forming - With Volume Confirmation