#MarketUpdate - Sustainable bounce ? ? ?

Hi All,

I was out of town in the first week of Feb, and due to some technical issue could not post the update on blog. However, on my What's App broadcast list, have suggested shorts near 10950-11000 and for which profits were booked above 10800, which was the trailing stop loss.

After falling consecutively for 9 odd days, Nifty finally witnessed a bounce from the support zone near 10530-10590. 18-20 Feb candles also show, though not exactly, but a lookalike pattern of Morning star.

Nifty charts are giving some contrarian view as follows...

As per DAILY charts, this bounce can continue till 10920 levels which is a 61.8% retracement of the previous fall from 11118 to 10585, and above that Nifty is expected to scale higher towards 11010-11120-11050. Though the current bounce looks like a short term up move, any material changes in the trend is only possible if Nifty surpasses and sustains 11150-11200 levels. (Refer the chart below)

However, as per WEEKLY charts, Nifty after forming a bearish Shooting star pattern (week ending 8th Feb), nifty created a hammer like bullish candle for the last week, however, the same can not be counted as it did not appear after a bear trend, however, it's a strong bullish candle and can not be  forgotten either. Moreover, a complete bounce from 10k levels has halted near 11118 which is 61.8% retracement of the fall from 11.7k to 10k. (Refer the chart below)

In a nutshell, as a result of this contrary indications,  traders are advised to trade with caution and with proper risk management. As it is markets are expected to remain choppy for few months, mainly on account of the general elections and trading with strict stop losses and trailing stops regularly is a must.

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MarkeUpdate - Laaaaao Bazaar, Nifty wapis 11 Hajaar

Hi all,

As expected, Nifty faced a stiff resistance near the psychological mark of 10900-11000 and turned down couple of times from there.

However, it has managed to cross it today, at least in the early trades which is a good sign for bulls.

However, Nifty should sustain these levels to start the next up move.

The target on the upside will be near 11150-11300-11400, where as the supports would be near 10800-10580

Cheers

Hrishi ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - /\ Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

Wish you all a very happy, prosperous and healthy New year 2019.....

My apologies for wishing so late, but this is my first update in 2019, thanks to a range bound market for past one month or so.

As mentioned in my last post, Bulls showed a lot of power and bounced back sharply from key area of 10490-10550, where prices has key retracement support and Supertrend support as well.

As expected, Nifty is comfortably sustaining above these levels, however with a lot of range bound, consolidated moves. And in this bargain, it has manged to form a continuation pattern, Symmetrical Triangle. (Please refer the chart below)

The pattern, will be confirmed when Nifty sustains above 10850-10900 levels and if so, can target higher levels of 11200-11300, even on a conservative basis. (CMP 10880)

By crossing the hourly resistance near 10870, Nifty has formed a higher top-higher bottom formation which is a good news for the bulls,

All said and done, Nifty should ideally surpass the hurdle near 10900-11000 in order to start the new move upwards.

Levels, critical to watch out on the lower side would be 10680-10600/10-10490/10550-10300/350-10100-10000-9940....

The area of 10600-10700 would be crucial for short term traders and can be termed as a trend reversal, if Nifty breaks and sustain below it, whereas 9950-10300 would be very important for mid term to long term trend.,....

Cheers...

#MarketUpdate - Superrrr se Uparrrrrr performance by BULLS ! ! !

Hi all,

Nifty, after giving up 10700 levels, fell drastically on Monday and gaped down today to take support near the expected area of 10490-10550, mentioned in the earlier post.

However, 10530, which was a Supertrend support on daily chart was respected by bulls never before and they got back the entire control surrendered to bears in past few days, so much so that, the gap down opening triggered by the global sell off was off set and Nifty managed to close handsomely in green territory.

1. A positive divergence on 15 minutes charts
2. Strong pull back from the daily Supertrend support
3. A look alike of Piercing Line pattern (will trigger only above 10780-10800)

set up on daily charts, builds up lots of expectations for Bulls. Though this sounds very encouraging for bulls, any meaningful and decisive upside can only be expected when Nifty sustains above 10770 -10800 mark, which will then give higher top formation on hourly charts, a key for a reversal.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bears come back for a weekend party ! ! !

Hi All,

Whoa.....What a comeback from bears.....

After a continuous rally of more than 5%, I expected a halt couple of days back when there was a bearish Harami pattern, which was not respected by bulls, but finally today, bears fought back strongly and even won the battle for a week.

In spite of bullish closes for 7 out of 8 days after the bottom at 10330, Nifty weekly chart now looks gloomy with a Shooting star link candle appearing near the resistance area mentioned earlier.... and hence, 10730-10700 levels is the last chance for bulls to pull back, else as per the lower top lower bottom formation of the hourly chart, near term trend looks negative with supports near 10660-10620-10550-10490-10430 and the final one near 10330.

As mentioned in earlier posts, if Nifty fails to create a bottom above 10330 and pull back from there, I feel even the 10k level would be at a risk....

#MarketUpdate - Bulls back on Track ?

Hi All,

As expected, Nifty surged after surpassing the levels of 10850 and today closed near 10970 levels.

Markets have crossed most of the resistances and now the final hurdle can be near 11050-11100-11170

Moreover, Nifty managed to cross and even close above the prior high of 10941 which is a very good sign as per Dow theory - Higher Top.... Higher bottom formation.

Also, Nifty has closed above the Supertrend on daily chart which is another encouragement for bulls, and now 10540-10500 levels will act as Supertrend support as well.

Nifty should now sustain these levels and surpass the resistances mentioned above.

Technically even the mid term bias has changed to positive, however I would like to wait for a while. Nonetheless, the recent bottom near 10333 becomes very crucial now and will be foundation support hereon, below which Nifty can even break previous bottoms near 10k levels.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Inside Bar.... What if BJP loses 2019 elections... #BigBull explains

Hi all,

It's ideally a Status Quo for markets as it tightly held, the levels posted yesterday.

But in that bargain, it has given an Inside bar pattern (today's high low within yesterday's range)

Hence, the levels of 10730-40 on the lower side and 10840-70 on the higher side becomes very crucial for markets going forward and will decide the future course of the markets...

Let's forget that for a while and enjoy the weekend till Monday...

Wishing you all a nice weekend....

Till then, just sharing a What's App forward.... It's excerpts from the latest chat with the #BigBull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala where he talks about his expectations of 2019 General elections and what happens if BJP is not voted back to power....

A must watch...

Happy weekend

Cheers

Hrishi....

#MArketUpdate - So far, so Good ! ! !

As they say.....

All is well, that Ends well....

Today as well, Nifty opened gaped up by almost 70 points showing a lot of strength from bulls, and the markets traded almost in the range of 60 points till 2.30. 

Though, bears showed  their presence, for a very small period of less than an hour, Bulls managed to pull the prices fairly up again....

As mentioned in the earlier post, Nifty exactly took resistance in the zone of 10810-10870 (multiple barriers, 78.6% retracement, gap down openings and Supertrend on daily charts) and now it becomes crucial to surpass this level, before bears get charged up....

Even though for little time, bears showed there presence hence the next up move can only start above 10840-10870 levels. There was nothing seriously bearish on intra day chart yet, but tone can look for intra day shorts with strict stop loss above the resistances.Traders can watch out for these numbers.

Crucial levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10740-10700-10620-10550-10480-10430-10300-10100-10000-9950-9700
Resistance - 10750-10820-10860-10950-11050-11170

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Abhi hum Zinda hai... ! ! !

Update 5.50 PM 12th December 2018 - Just got the news about consumer inflation being eased to 2.22% , almost by 100 basis points (1%), Today's upsurge could be on account of that.. be cautious tomorrow.....

Cheers

Hi....

Today's post heading is a famous Bollywood dialogue of Firoz Khan from the comic movie "Welcome", and somehow it suits perfectly to the current political and markets scenario. The actors speaking this dialogue would be Congress and Bulls of Dalal street.... Lol

On the political front, yesterday Congress proved their strength by winning the Assembly Election battle with BJP by stunning margin of 3-0 (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and almost certainly Madhya Pradesh). This can be a vital development, especially when we are near to the General LS elections of April-May 2019 and the fact that it is a focal point for all the opposition parties which are against the BJP.

On Dalal Street, on 2 consecutive days bulls showed their power by giving a movement of more than 400 points from the bottom of 10330 yesterday.

As we expected in yesterday's post, after surpassing 10600 mark, Nifty today zoomed up and crossed the target of 10700.

Nifty created a high today of 10752, which is above the downward gap between 5th and 6th December 2018, on daily charts which is a good thing, ideally it should close above the 10750 mark though.

Also, Nifty crossed and closed above 10710-10720 levels, a 61.8% mark of the recent fall (from 10940 - 10330) which is another healthy sign. Hereon, markets should sustain these levels and need to comfortably surpass 10810-10820 mark, which is the 78.2% retracement and becomes very crucial to to pull the prices down from there. Also, 10810 to 10870 mark is very crucial zone as daily Supertrend is near 10860 and there are multiple gap downs on daily charts, which will act as a resistance on a closing basis

In order to stop the bulls juggernaut, bears need to restrict bulls before the above mentioned hurdles

Crucial levels to watch out for -

Supports - 10620-10550-10480-10430-10300-10100-10000-9950-9700
Resistance - 10750-10820-10860-10950-11050-11170

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Buy the Rumour, sell the Fact.....! ! !

Hi All,

Though there was a nail biting fight going on between Congress and BJP to form a government in Madhya Pradesh (almosgt clear that Congress will form it now), and the same will be cleared by today or in few days in case there is a hung assembly, that is not at all a case for markets today.

It is almost visible, at least for today, that the ongoing events (including unpredictable resignation of the RBI governor) were seemed to be discounted in the recent fall from 10940 to 10330, which yet again proves that "Buy the rumour, sell the fact" analogy works and is dependable to an extent.

However, let us not be hasty and jump the rope to call this as the short term trend reversal.

Today, Nifty recovered sharply from the lows near supports of 10330, and managed to close at 10550, near to the day's high of 10567, which is a sign of relief, at least temporary, to the bulls. Also, Nifty has created a Hammer like pattern on weekly charts, though not a valid one as it is not at the end of a daily down trend, but still a buying pressure candle coupled with a strong Bullish engulf pattern on Daily charts

Next few days are going to be very crucial for Nifty with 10300 - 10000 - 9700 levels being the crucial supports, whereas 10600-10700-10950-11100 are important hurdles going up.

A close above 10480 is surely encouraging for bulls at least for near term (based on RENKO Charts), however it is is a huge responsibility of bulls to sustain markets above 10480-10530 levels on a closing basis.

10480 is very crucial as per RENKO daily charts, a monthly trend line near that area and it's a 20 month SMA.... (Please find the monthly candlestick chart below)

As there is a hidden RSI divergence (an opposite of regular divergence and a an effective one) on monthly charts, I personally feel change in the midium term sentiment is possible only above 11050-11100 levels for Nifty, till then.... It's advantage Bears.....

As mentioned, let's wait for some confirmations before executing a trade, till then, advice is to trade with strict stop loss and targets with proper risk reward....

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Nothing seems to be right... Look Left.... #Technicals

Update end of the day - Please refer the next post

#Market Update - Bullish Island

Hi All,

Nifty did not act as per our expectations in the last post, Ray of Hope, and broke the previous lows near 10850 levels...

Yet again on daily charts, Nifty has given a bullish indication, a set up of on 10th, 11th and 12th October 2018 is very similar to the Bullish Island pattern It's not the exact pattern formation and a look alike as there are no gaps as per the pattern definition....

As per the supports and resistances, Nifty should ideally travel to 10750 odd levels basis this, and it has already touched 10700 levels a couple of days before, however it corrected sharply from there and currently trade near 10300 mark.

Let me share, what I have been doing personally in the recent bottoms and a small bounce thereof (from 10866 to 11000 and then from 10130 to 10700)... At every dip of such kind, I look forward towards heavily beaten down bluechip / quality stocks and take a No exposure position on them with an intention of selling it whenever they give me a decent % increase, but with also predetermined stop loss below the recent lows... Likewise, I have booked small 2 to 5% or in some cases, even 15% profits in stocks like, PEL, PNB, DHFL, Bajaj Finance, HDFC AMC, Jubilant Foods, LIC Housing, Lupin, Marico, TBZ and Yes Bank. However there are some stocks which are yet to perform and I am still holding them.

Now, in the absence of any major trigger (especially with a positive outcome), its advisable for traders not to take positions with exposures for more than a few days and keep booking profits as markets are very volatile and the fluctuation is expected to increase on account of state election results in almost a month's time.

Cheers....

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Ray of Hope ! ! !

Hi all,

As posted in the last blog of Bears Attack, thanks to multiple negative signals, Nifty lost it all after breaking 11630 and plummeted by almost 800 points to create a bottom near 10866.

People who are short now should look at booking some profits, and in fact can even think of taking a bull mode.

Thanks to a Bullish Harami pattern on daily charts, looks like that the bottom can be in place near the recent lows of 10850, at least for short term, and after such a sharp fall in the markets, even its fair to expect a small bounce, if not a trend change. Also, the recent bottom, is exactly in a rising window (upward gap between 9&10th July) on daily charts, which supports a small bounce. (Please refer the graph below). Moreover, the candle on the day of sharp sell off, is actually a candle with bullish pressure, looking similar to a Hammer pattern

The only thing against the bull yesterday was that the market breadth, with Advance Decline ratio of 7:11, which favours the bulls

However, risky traders are advised to take a long trade, if and only if Nifty surpasses 11100 mark with stop loss below the supports of 10850 and with targets near the resistances of 11200-11350-11520-11600.

Since the stop loss is very wide (almost of 250 points), one can enter partially above 11100 and even buy on dips, if any, as per one's risk appetite.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bears Attack ! ! !

Hi All,

Markets continued their upward journey and kept on creating all time highs for past few months. Nifty hit 11760.2 where as Sensex touched 38989.75, missing the 39k mark buy just 11 odd points.

But after such huge rally of more than 1000 points from 10500 levels, Nifty daily chart finally showing some signs of weakness.

Nifty showed a bearish engulf pattern last week, after which it again tried to create yet another high on Friday, however was not successful in breaching the 11760 mark. And today there is yet another bearish engulf candle and a sizable red candle on the daily chart, which means, clearly bears are making their presence felt. Nifty also broke 10639 mark today, there by creating a lower bottom.

So,

1. Nifty has given a Bearish Engulf set up on 28&29 August
2. Another bearish engulf pattern today
3. Broken the immediate support near 11639
4. Created a lower top lower bottom formation on daily charts

This is surely a cautious signal for bulls and any mid term longs should be held with tight trailing stops.

At the current price of 11639, the near term bias looks negative now with targets near 11590-11530-11480 and with resistance (stops) above the life time highs of 11760-10770. The short term bias only becomes bearish if Nifty sustains below 11480.

Traders are advised to take positions accordingly for preferred time frames.

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Laaaaaao Bazaaar, Nifty Saade 11 Hajaaaar - New Life high

Update - 

Andhra bank... Book profit of around 6.5%,  near 34.5, initiated near 32.4
Castrol ... Book small 1% profit near 159...

Cheers

Hrishi

#MarketUpdate - Bull Hai ke maanta Nahi ! ! !

Hi All,

Laaaaaaao Bazaaaaar Nifty Sava 11 Hajaaaar

The bullish leg, which started after the bottom near 10550, continued strong and now Nifty is at a Life time high.....

The longs initiated near 10630, which were trailing with a stop below 10900, are still on, and the short position was not initiated as markets never broke the 10900 levels.

Looks like the now the next pit stop for bulls can be around 10400-10550, the target based on Symmetrical Continuation Triangle mentioned in the earlier post.

However, as the talk on the Dalal street goes, though markets are at All time high, hopes are at all time low. Though indices scaled life highs, individual stocks are far away from the highs. Even in last one year, where Nifty is up by 11%, only 5 stocks have contributed to take it up by 14%, rest 45 stocks are down by 3%, which is not a good sign at all. Also, Nifty upmove is not strongly backed by corporate numbers, and as a result Nifty is trading at high / costlier PE multiples.

However these deviations are a part of the game and surely not a reason to short for chartists. The long initiated earlier can now be held with a trail stop loss below 11150.

As usual, will advise traders to not get caught in the fight between Bulls and Bears and trade with strong chart confirmations with strict stop losses.

#MarketUpdate - Bulls might halt journey so far, it's a Shooting Star ! ! !

Hi All,

As posted in the previous post, it's better to play safe after a nice bounce of almost 5%, and accordingly Nifty rose strongly yesterday, however took resistance near the life time high area of 11069 to 11172.

Moreover, Nifty has created a Shooting Star pattern on daily charts, which is bearish in nature, hence the gap up support near 10970-11000 becomes very crucial for bears, if prices sustain below the same, or may be 10940 levels, one can expect Nifty to drift down further. In fact today, it gave all its gains in the morning trades and went in to negative territory, however took support near the gap up window of 10999. (Chart below for illustration)

Long positions created (partial holdings) near 10630 (based on Bullish separating Lines pattern on daily chart) can be no trailed with a stop loss below 10900 levels.

In a nutshell, I would reiterate what we discussed in the last post about, BULLS, BEARS and PIGS. So let's try not to be too greedy about markets, let it decide its further trend, and then participate accordingly, till then be with proper money management....

Cheers

Happy Weekend!!!

#MarketUpdate - Love Triangle ! ! !

Hi All,

A different heading for the post right?, will tell you at the end why I named it like this....

However, as posted earlier last week in Ray of Hopes for Bulls, though expected a small bounce from 10630 levels, Nifty witnessed a sharp bounce of around 3%, thanks to Bullish separating lines, Supertrend support, Hourly Hammer and daily trend line support.

On the daily charts, Nifty is showing a breakout of the Triangle mentioned few days back (similar to ascending triangle, which is Bullish), and the target for the same can be near 11350-11400, which means a Life time high for Nifty. Refer the image...

So, as per that, those who are already long near 10630, as advised earlier, can continue their positions, with a trailed stop to 10795. However a fresh long position now, would not be advisable, as I personally feel, Triangles are good,  but only as a postmortem, as lot of times one needs to adjust the lines as per the movements (even the earlier post triangle had to be adjusted now), and usually prices tend to retrace back to the lines.

So any longs now should only be on dips, provided there is a supporting bullish evidence for it.

However, Nifty closing above the prior top of 10929.2, is a bullish sign, but importantly it should sustain these levels. Next pit stop for bulls can be near the psychological mark of 11k and then the resistances can be 11060-11125 and finally 11171-11200 which is the Life time high.

On the lower side supports would be near 10910-10860-10800-10710-10600 and 10550...

Now you would wonder, as to why I name this post as Love Triangle, that's because, as they say....

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered, 

which means, the in fight of bulls and bears, participants with excessive greed, usually get slaughtered..., hence advise you all to trade with strict stop loss and dont trade with a supportive confirmation, either bullish / bearish

Cheers

#MarketUpdate - Ray of hopes for Bulls ! ! !

Update - 11.35 AM 3rd July 2018...

As expected.... bulls got a small bounce of around 70-80 basis points in Nifty, conservatively one can book part profits and trail stop loss near cost....

Cheers ! ! !

#MarketUpdate - Next pit stop... 10550 ! ! !

Update, 28th June 2018 @ 1600 houes

Target of 10550, almost achieved with the low of the day at 10557.

On, hourly charts, Nifty has given a Bullish Hammer, and prices should sustain above 10620-25 to see a bounce. Will update the blog, if there is good near term buying opportunity.

Cheers

Hrishi